The undecided, the uninformed American voter
Last week I was in Georgia at the farm bow hunting. As usual because it was deer season I was overrun with wild turkeys. I wish Georgia would have a fall season because in the spring when it is legal to hunt turkeys I am always overrun with deer.
You can tell that Georgia is a crucial state in this election by all the ads. Not so much in Tennessee. One of the Harris ads that plays every ten minutes or so is that Harris “will make billionaires pay their fair share” and that Trump will give his fellow billionaires a tax cut. One ad features a man who endorses Harris while putting gas in his car. Strange, because the price he is paying at the pump is much higher under Harris than it was under Trump. Also (I haven’t verified this) at a lecture a few weeks ago one of the leading tax economists stated that historically when the tax on billionaires is increased, the well being of the lower 5 percent falls and vice versa. If true, then Harris should be campaigning for a decrease in the taxes on the wealthy in order to help the poor.
Did you know that Harris wants to cut taxes to the middle income households while Trump has proposed a national sales tax that will costs those households $4,000 per year? Well that is what another Harris ad says. It is from her acceptance speech at the Democrat National Convention. The so-called “national sales tax” is what Harris’ ad is labelling Trump’s pledge to impose across the board tariffs on imports.
Another Harris ad says that Trump will impose a nationwide ban on IVF treatments. Of course Trump has said that he wants IVF treatments to be paid for by the government (another of his pandering). To date I have seen no Trump ads refuting either claim of a national sales tax or on IVF. The one Trump ad that is constantly played is of Harris advocating transgender surgeries to inmates. Personally I think an ad on Title IX would be more effective especially one in which biological males are allowed in girls dressing rooms and displacing girls on athletic teams.
Barack Obama is chastising black men for their lack of enthusiasm for Harris. In the real world if 72% supported a candidate, it would be called a landslide. But not in Obama’s world. Speaking of Obama, is he ill? He looks awful.
There have been some of the usual accusations that Harris is not appealing to some voters because she is a woman of color, implying that if she were a white male, the same group would vote for her. Really? That would imply that the same group supports Bernie Sanders but not Harris. Only a fool would think that because the Bernie bros are all in for Harris.
I wonder if the lack of interviews and total absence of press conferences is actually hurting Harris. This would assume that the electorate is actually paying attention. I strongly suspect that the number of people who are undecided is so small in number that they will not make a difference. There are two challenges for Trump. The first is to get people who normally do not vote (see evangelistic Christians) to vote. Note: that evangelistic Christians do not embrace Trump should be no surprise. It would be akin to black voters in Alabama voting for George Wallace – oh wait, didn’t Wallace get 90% of the black vote when he ran for governor in 1982? The second is to motivate the uninformed voter to go to the polls. In the 2020 elections, voter participation was 66% meaning that 81 million eligible voters did not vote. To me that is astounding. Trump’s strategy is to get these slackers to the polls by scaring the hell out of them. To wit: illegal gangs are taking over apartment buildings; illegals are raping your women; illegals are eating your pets; illegals are murderers with bad genes; “If we lose this election, the country is finished”; Trump’s opponents are no longer incompetent, they are mentally impaired; Harris is now called “stupid”; Walz is now a “total moron”; We now need “one rough day” against criminals. The democrats have long argued that Trump is a threat to democracy. Trump has countered by saying that if Harris is elected then Israel will cease to exist.
Whether Trump will be successful in scaring the uninformed and the indifferent eligible voter to go vote is an empirical question. Post election see if the percent of eligible voters who vote is increased.
haroldblackphd.com 