Fortress America

Fortress America

It looks like Trump will abandon Ukraine in his pivot toward Russia. That should come as no surprise to the Ukrainians who are accustomed to being abandoned by the United States and left on their own. Ukraine is never going to surrender to Russia who look upon them as inferior second class citizens. From the betrayal of Woodrow Wilson, to Yalta, to Bush, Clinton and Obama the US has lied to Ukraine and/or left it to fend for itself against the Russians who were and are brutal masters. Stalin was responsible for 4 million Ukrainian deaths. Russian brutality has been front and center in this conflict. They have tortured Ukrainians, killed prisoners, abducted their children, conducted sexual violence against men as well as women and children. They have been barbaric overseers in the territory they have seized. Ukrainians have documented over 150,000 war crimes committed by the Russians. The Ukrainians know that the Russians will never be held accountable for these actions and think they can inflict them with impunity. It would be irrational for Zelenskyy to accept a peace without security. Is Ukraine simply going to abandon Luhansk and Donetsk like they abandoned Crimea? Remember those areas contain 40 percent of Ukraine’s mineral wealth.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians ever trusted the Americans. I would be equally shocked if it isn’t developing its own nuclear weapons after foolishly abandoning them at Clinton’s urging. There is no way Ukraine will accept Russian dominance. Ukraine is not going to join NATO but given all the support coming from Europe look to it joining the EU. If all this Russia mess doesn’t compel Ukraine to continue pivoting toward Europe then nothing will. But a nuclear Ukraine is necessary to keep the Russian bear away from their throats.

What I am wondering is why can’t Europe step in a broker a deal? Brussels was left out of the negotiating table in the talks between Russia and the US. But it is clear that Ukraine would never accept a deal hammered out with those two, given that it doesn’t trust either. It would be fitting if the US were left out of these negotiations. Ukraine should offer to pay the US for replacement parts and upkeep on the materiel it has and pay for anything in the future.

Some observers, more learned than I am, have posited that if the US abandons Ukraine then Russia will be emboldened to invade other countries. I think the chance of this is virtually zero. Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago thinking that it would take only a week or so to subdue the country. Surprise! Russia is a weak big bad bully with only its nukes to try to scare its opponents into submission. If Europe had any backbone it could easily dispense with the Russian threat. But the Europeans are mostly gutless. If Russia did decide to invade the Baltic states, it would probably get its butt kicked. Since Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are members of NATO then NATO would come to their defense. Would this be Trump’s World War III?  Don’t look for the US to join them. Trump’s America is not going to be drawn into any foreign wars. The neocons be damned. Look for rumblings for Trump to take the US out of NATO.

I actually think the bigger threat is that the Chinese may be emboldened to attack Taiwan. To that end we should make sure that such an invasion will be even more costly to the Chinese than Ukraine is to the Russians. I would arm the Taiwanese to the teeth with air and sea defenses. I would put an iron dome over the island. I would sell them all the missiles and jets they need for their defense and for offense against the Chinese mainland. If all this were put in place, the Chinese would have second thoughts about an invasion. And, of course, I would put a 1000 percent tariff on all Chinese goods and services worldwide.

Trump is the ultimate mercantilist. He is an isolationist. He could easily start winding down US military around the world. He would leave the rest of the world to its own devices. He is building a fortress America. To wit: “We will leave you alone so long as you leave us alone. But mess with us and all hell will rain down on you.” We no longer have any allies and precious few friends. If the politicians home and abroad say otherwise, they are lying.

Trump is upending all our trade agreements, our military alliances and pulling the country back within our own borders. It is not just America first. It is America only. If Trump and his minions stay in power going into the future – which I doubt – I can see an America with zero alliances. The rest of the world can have its territorial disputes, fight its wars and have their own alliances. Just leave us out of it. The percent of US trade to GDP is around 25%. I think Trump would be happy to cut that to zero and have America make up the difference. Tell companies that they can only sell in America what they make in America. No more iphones from China. No more avocados from Mexico. No more imported cars and trucks from Canada. No more imported anything. It would make us poorer and would take time. It would be a different America. But theoretically, it could be done.

Quo vadis, Donald?