Random Thoughts #56

Ukraine, Froot Loops, Pete Hegseth, the WHO and Tammy Duckworth

Did Trump’s people seriously think that Zelenskyy would agree to cede Crimea to Russia in order to end the war? If he had, he would have been ousted as Ukrainian president. The proposal did not even call for a withdrawal of the Russian troops occupying Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – probably because Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff didn’t know their names. I have no idea how this war will end with any outcome other than a stalemate. Kiev is not strong enough to oust Russia from its southern provinces and Russia will only subdue Ukraine with an agonizingly slow bloody slough. Maybe Kiev is hoping that the Russian public will get tired of seeing body bags coming home and legions of wounded and maimed young men in the streets of Moscow (a la Vietnam). Recall that Russia invaded Georgia (no not that Georgia) and Chechnya. The result of the war with Georgia was that the Russians agreed to remove their troops back to where they were before the invasion. The Ukrainians want the same to happen. They want the Russians out of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. They know that they will not be able to oust the Russians from the Crimea but would probably settle for the status quo before the invasion. 

Trump now says he has “no intention” of firing Jerome Powell. Again, I think the markets are now providing the checks and balances to his actions – until the Supreme Court defines the limits of the executive. The markets have rejected the notion of firing the Fed chair. Now if the president only gets the message that they don’t like the tariffs either. To that point the president actually indicated that the 145% tariffs on China will come down saying “It won’t be that high. It will come down substantially. But it won’t be zero.” Did I once say that the president was erratic?

Remember my posting on Fruit Loops? Well the FDA is moving to ban artificial colorings from our food by the end of next year. RFK, Jr has been pushing this for years and his FDA commissioner Dr Marty Makary – who I really like – is Kennedy’s point person and will get it done.

Trump has expressed his displeasure with Commerce Secretary Lutnick over his handling of the tariffs. I have not heard him say anything about the mess at Defense. Secretary Hegseth has fired three of his top aides over leaks. He is still embroiled in the Signal controversy. Now it seems that he is including his wife in confidential meetings. One of his ex-aides has pointed to career staff at Defense as the source of the leaks saying that those people are still in contact with Obama/Biden officials like Susan Rice. Also, Hegseth has replaced field commanders that have in one way or another resisted his leadership, mostly regarding DEI. He has also lost the confidence of some republican leaders. Rep Don Bacon says that he would fire him and that “He should know better than to share operational details of imminent combat strikes on an unclassified application. A second lieutenant would have his career ended over this.” Appointing Hegseth was a headscratcher. He might have to go back to his weekend gig at Fox.

Did you know that the US is withdrawing from the World Health Organization” Here is the notice from the White House:

The United States noticed its withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2020 due to the organization’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic that arose out of Wuhan, China, and other global health crises, its failure to adopt urgently needed reforms, and its inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states.  In addition, the WHO continues to demand unfairly onerous payments from the United States, far out of proportion with other countries’ assessed payments.  China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has 300 percent of the population of the United States, yet contributes nearly 90 percent less to the WHO.  

Although the benefit of the WHO to developing countries is obvious, it was not so obvious what the benefits to the US were. A withdrawal from the World Trade Organization is more obvious given Trump’s embrace of trade restrictions. Anyway, he says that the WTO benefits everyone but the US.

Dick Durbin has announced he is not going to seek re-election. Since he is from Illinois, it is doubtful that his replacement will be any better. Yet Durbin is marginally better than his Illinois colleague, Tammy Duckworth, having actually voted for the confirmation of 5 of Trump’s nominees while Duckworth voted for only one. However, I will cut her some slack. She was born in Thailand and was a Black Hawk helicopter pilot during the Iraq War. She was shot down and lost both her legs. She, however, continued to serve in the Illinois National Guard for another 10 years retiring with the rank of lieutenant colonel. She has been a staunch critic of Trump and Hegseth’s firing of top military officers saying that the administration is replacing competent veteran leadership with yes-men who declare fealty to the president. She is especially upset that the vast majority of those replaced are women and people of color. Of course, those that were replaced by Trump were cited for implementing Biden’s policies regarding DEI. But weren’t they just carrying out orders? Couldn’t Hegseth simply have ordered them to dismantle all the DEI stuff and replaced them if they didn’t? BTW, Duckworth should know that currently Xi is purging some of his top generals as well. I bet our generals will suffer a much milder fate. Incidentally, Duckworth has two daughters, the second of which was born while she was serving in the senate.