The president’s war on drugs bearing results?

The president’s war on drugs bearing results?

I had wondered if the president’s extending his southern naval interdiction of drug runners in the eastern Caribbean would now be extended into the Pacific now that he has expressed displeasure with Columbia’s president. The answer is yes. The navy just blew up two boats in the Pacific. This makes nine such attacks and at least 37 deaths. Defense Secretary Hegseth tweeted that the boats were operated by a “Designated Terrorist Organization” and were “transiting along a known narco-trafficking route” in international waters. He said they were “known by our intelligence to be involved in illicit narcotics smuggling.” Hegseth did not specify the organization.

I wonder what percentage of South American drugs are transported to the US via drug running boats? Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) said that the routes through the Caribbean on boats are predominantly used to bring cocaine to Europe not to the U.S. So I guess the Europeans should be sending the president thank you notes. It also noteworthy that the Dominican Republic has agreed to let the US military use its airports for staging operations in support of counternarcotics flights. This shows that the president is planning more extensive operations both in the eastern Caribbean and off the Columbian coast in the Pacific. I am now awaiting drone strikes on the cartels in Venezuela and Columbia. Again, is this how the CIA will be used?

How do these drugs get to the US? Here what Rear Admiral Christopher Tomney director of Joint Interagency Task Force South for the US Coast Guard said in an interview with the BBC.

“We cover over 40 million square nautical miles, and reach well out into the Atlantic, throughout north, central and south America as well as all the way out into the eastern Pacific. 

“The number one drug we see moving is cocaine. Last year we were able to successfully take out of the pipeline 191 metric tonnes of cocaine. Around 20 to 25% of cocaine around the globe is interdicted. 

“The cartels are very innovative. Due to their large profits, they have a lot of money they can throw at technology.

“In the early days of this task force – and we’ve been around for 26 years – we saw much higher movement using non-commercial aircraft to fly the drugs northwards. 

“[Now] well over 95% of the drugs are moving on the water via container ships, non-commercial vessels, pleasure boats, sail boats, fishing boats. They also have fast boats which try to outrun our law enforcement assets.”

The fact that 95% of the drugs are moving over water provides statistical and empirical justification for the interdiction efforts of the administration. Yet the cartels are smart and will likely ship less with their fast boats and more by stashing the drugs on other vessels. Perhaps this is where the president’s amazing admission of using the CIA comes in – to help identify the commercial vessels and pleasure boats that will be increasingly used by the cartels to transport drugs. Again, drone attacks anyone?

What about the southern border? One of the many impacts that the effective closure of the southern border has had is on drugs. Reports state that there have been a drop in fentanyl seizures of 70 percent from last year. Although some detractors might contend that the cartels have found other ways to sneak the drug into the country, this has not proven to be the case. Rather, shutting down the border has discouraged the cartels from using the huge flow of illegals to cover their transporting the drugs with the illegal migrant crossing.

Here is what the Department of Homeland Security has said. There has been a 97% reduction in the number of “illegal crossings of the border” compared to “the same [unspecified] period of last year.” A 59% increase in seizures of ammunition and parts of weapons compared to “the same period of last year.” A 70% reduction in fentanyl seizures, “with 20,000 pounds of fentanyl, heroin and methamphetamine confiscated in total in the past 90 days.

Wow. These are impressive numbers and reflect the use of troops from both Mexico and the US on the southern border. However despite these reductions, the president is pressuring the Mexican government to do even more. While he has lifted his “fentanyl” tariffs on Mexico, the tariffs on non-USMCA free trade items remain.

Since the flow of these drugs has been sharply reduced, the question remains as to the impact on their street prices in the US and the impact on the quantity (and quality) of drugs demanded. That will be the subject of a future posting.