Trump’s War

Trump’s war

How many rockets does Iran have? Reports are that the Iranians have only 2,500 ballistic missiles. I say “only” because if you believe all of the panicky news reports, it sounds like they have 25,000.  The US and Israel are targeting the missile launch sites, which is smart. But I thought that we were told that the launch sites were destroyed in the June attack? Of course those were hardened sites when I guess there must be mobile launchers capable of launching a ballistic missile. Given the reported destruction of the June attack (which now seems overstated) and all the missiles currently being fired, the Iranians must be very good at missile production.

The ballistic missiles have a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) which is considerable. The Iranians seem to be trying to sow panic within that range with a missile here and a missile there type of strategy. Most are actually drones. There was one fired at Cyprus, one shot toward Turkey, two at Azerbaijan, others at Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq. But for all the shouting there have been relatively little damage and only a few deaths – even in Israel – from the attacks.

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense said that out of 941 Iranian drones detected since the start of the war, 65 fell within its territory, damaging ports, airports, hotels and data centers. Again this sounds like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight which points to psychological warfare being conducted by the Iranians.

Then there are cruise missiles and of course the famous Iranian attack drones. The cruise missiles and even the drones (surprisingly to me) have a range similar to that of the ballistic missiles. I presume that the Iranians launch all three at targets they deemed of value to complicate interdiction. Iran may have 1,000 cruise missiles and up to 80,000 drones while producing another 400  drones per day. These seem to be more a problem than the traditional missiles.

Interdiction prompts some questions if  Iran is waging a mass drone campaign unleashing waves of low-cost ($50,000), one-way attack drones against Western-linked targets to impose an exponential cost on the U.S. This forces the targets to utilize expensive interceptors on low‑cost drones while creating a psychological burden on military and civilian populations. Air defense systems used by Gulf states and Israel can cost between $3 million and $12 million per interdiction according to U.S. Department of Defense. This cost discrepancy raises a serious issue for Iran’s enemies: Air defense systems have finite numbers of defense missiles, with each target intercepted representing a valuable asset expended. But of course two can play this game as for the first time the US has made extensive use of its own drones in attacking Iran.

So apparently, the Iranian strategy is that their enemies will run out of interceptors before the Iranians either run out of drones or before Iranian facilities are completely neutralized.

One friend of mine who knows these things said that the Iranians likely fired off all their outdated missiles at Israel first to deplete the Israeli defenses and then would attack with more sophisticated weapons.

We are using s ophisticated and expensive sophisticated THAAD and Patriot Systems air defenses to counter the low cost drone attacks. In Ukraine, the slow moving drones have been shot down by machine gun fire and Zelenskyy has offered to help show us how it’s done. The US Navy has also deployed a dozen Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers to the Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean. These are air defense destroyers which can shoot down drones and ballistic missiles. They have already proven effective in the Red Sea against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Between 2024 and 2026, the US intercepted nearly 400 Houthi drones and missiles. And of course jet fighters can shoot them down as well.

Trump says that Iran will not be another Iraq squandering US lives and treasure. Yet he says there may be a need for boots on the ground. My friend (and military experts agree) that Iran’s complex geopolitical environment, rugged geography and demographic density make an invasion impractical. The old way of fighting wars with tanks and massed infantry will not succeed in Iran – like it didn’t in Afghanistan. Remember the old saying about generals are prepared to fight yesterday’s war? There is little evidence that the US is prepared to fight modern wars. I predict that if that if Trump uses ground troops, the republicans may lose 70+ seats in the midterms and also lose the senate. Americans have no stomach for another ground war in the Middle East. So in a way, this may be a war of attrition. Which sides runs out of missiles and air defenses first.

Maybe Trump thought that the Iranian military capability was so degraded that this current attack would end quickly especially after the killing of Khamanei and other Iranian leaders. He said “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared, as U.S. and Israeli warplanes pounded Iranian cities and the compound of the country’s supreme leader. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”

He appears to be mistaken. First, there is no way that the Iranians were not prepared for the attack and dispersed their armaments throughout the country. Their strategy has been called “centralized planning and decentralized execution.” Second, he also seems to have hopes that the Iranian people will overthrow a weakened government. He made be mistaken in that regard as well. I bet he was surprised at all the masses of people who demonstrated grief over the killing of Khamanei. Yes there were celebrations in Iran but mourning as well. As my knowledgeable friend has said, the resistance lies primarily among the young in the urban areas. However, rural Iran is conservative, strict Muslims and supportive of the mullahs. Sound familiar?