The Sweet 16. How’s your bracket doing?

The Sweet 16. How’s your bracket doing?

It is time for the Sweet 16. I credit the new found remarkable increase in the accuracy in seeding to the fact that one of my dearest friends in now on the selection committee. The men’s tournament has always been somewhat chaotic ever since the seeding began in 1985. That has always been touted as the men’s game being more competitive than the women’s which has mostly gone according to chalk (seeding). There always seems to be a Cinderella on the men’s side with a double digit seed getting to the Sweet Sixteen and even to the Final Four. In 2024, North Carolina State got to the Final Four as an 11th seed. Before that UCLA in 2021, Loyola Chicago in 2018 (remember Sister Jean?) and Syracuse in 2016. Only one women’s double seed has made the Sweet Sixteen and no women’s double digit seed has ever gone to their Final Four.

Then my friend arrived on the committee in 2025 and although Arkansas made the Sweet 16 as a tenth seed, the men’s Final four for the first time featured all number one seeds. That won’t happen this time as Florida, the defending champion, lost to Iowa, a 9th seed. Texas did get in as an 11thseed. But the rest of the field looks like chalk.

  • No. 1 Duke (East Region)
  • No. 1 Arizona (West Region)
  • No. 1 Michigan (Midwest Region)
  • No. 2 UConn (East Region)
  • No. 2 Iowa State (Midwest Region)
  • No. 2 Purdue (West Region)
  • No. 2 Houston (South Region)
  • No. 3 Michigan State (East Region)
  • No. 3 Illinois (South Region)
  • No. 4 Alabama (Midwest Region)
  • No. 4 Arkansas (West Region)
  • No. 4 Nebraska (South Region)
  • No. 5 St. John’s (East Region)
  • No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest Region)
  • No. 9 Iowa (South Region)
  • No. 11 Texas (West Region)

So where is the so-called parity? Each school is from a power basketball conference. Obviously that includes the Big East (UConn and St Johns). When was the last time a non-power conference team won the national championship? Remarkably, it was in 1990 when UNLV coached by Jerry Tarkanian blew out Duke 103-73 to win it all. Yes it is amazing to consider that UNLV team as a mid-major but it played in the Big West conference. It was dominant and ranked number one all season. It featured Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon, but the MVP of the Final 4 was Anderson Hunt (remember him?). UNLV was 35-1 that year with the only loss to Loyola Marymount whose star Hank Gaithers collapsed during a game and died. The other star player on the Marymount team, Bo Kimble then in Gaither’s memory started shooting free throws left handed. I think that when that happened I, and a lot of the basketball world, shed a tear.

It used to be that college basketball teams were mostly made up of high school recruits and a few transfers. It also seemed that most championship teams were mainly those with players who had been around for a while and not featuring one-and-done players as their stars. In fact, the last team whose star was a one-and-done was Kentucky’s 2012 team with Anthony Davis. So that is not the key to winning a national championship. This year’s Sweet 16 has Cameron Boozer of Duke and Darius Acuff, Jr of Arkansas who are likely one-and-doners. But if is interesting in this, the age of NIL and the transfers, most of the teams’ starters are not transfers.  Perhaps the most interesting team is Illinois which looks like the Serbian National team. 

In an article in Reason by Jason Russell “Ignore the Haters – March Madness is alive and well in spite of the Transfers and NIL” is this chart:of the Sweet Sixteen and the original schools of their starting five. https://reason.com/2026/03/24/ignore-the-haters-march-madness-is-alive-and-well-in-spite-of-transfers-and-nil/

Seven have three or more starters that are not transfers – Tennessee (Go Vols!), Arizona, Michigan State (Tom Izzo is the best coach in college basketball), Purdue (my brother’s alma mater), Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, UConn, Duke, Arkansas and Illinois. Iowa and Michigan have one, Nebraska two while Texas and St John’s have none. St John’s coach is Rick Patino who says he will never again recruit a high school player.

As usual, the betting odds – which I don’t understand – favor chalk with all the higher teams winning. There is probably a bet on how many higher teams will lose and what will the Elite 8 look like and then the Final 4. I am probably wrong but I think all the lower seeds have a good chance at beating the higher seed with the exceptions of Purdue versus Texas and Iowa State versus Tennessee.

In case you didn’t figure it out here are the teams.

Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, UConn, Duke, Arkansas, St Johns and Illinois.

So who are your Elite 8?

Leave a comment