How do you define victory?

How do you define victory?

How do you define victory? Here what Webster says: 

1. A success or triumph over an enemy in battle or war.
2. An engagement ending in such triumph.
3. the ultimate and decisive superiority in any battle or contest.
4. a success or superior position achieved against any opponent, opposition, difficulty, etc..

So given the statistics of Trump’s war on Iran, he did achieve victory. Iran’s own estimates show at least a $145 billion loss so far in the war. There has been significant military damage to its naval assets, ballistic missile program, nuclear

infrastructure, and personnel. Then there is the damage to its cities and infrastructure. More than 66% of missile and drone production facilities, as well as shipbuilding infrastructure were destroyed. In addition, over190 ballistic missile launchers were eliminated, with hundreds more rendered inoperable.

Strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities in Natanz, Yazd, and Arak, are believed to have set back development by an estimated 8 to 15 years. Defense secretary Hegseth said that the US has achieved a “historic victory on the battlefield.” “By every measure, we destroyed the Iranian military. In less than 40 days, using just a fraction of our capabilities, we defeated one of the largest armies in the world.”  Iran’s naval forces, air force, air defenses, and missile program had been “effectively destroyed.”

The president himself tweeted that Iran was “totally defeated” and “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability.” He also has said on social media that “The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both militarily, economically, and in every other way.” Iran’s military has been “literally obliterated. The air force is gone. The navy is gone.” “In two weeks we have decimated them.” 

Yep. That sure sounds like victory to me – and to Webster too. But note that “victory” did not include surrender. Despite being “100” percent destroyed somehow the Iranians keep firing off missiles and drones and have shut down the Strait of Hormuz. In fact US intelligence reports that Iran still has thousands of missiles that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas. Apparently they did not tell the president of this fact.

What about Trump’s demand that the U.S. would accept no negotiated settlement short of “unconditional surrender” and the demand for input into the choice of a new supreme leader? Trump tweeted that once Iran surrendered that the U.S. and “many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners” would “work tirelessly” to reconstruct Iran and its’ economy by bringing it “back from the brink of destruction” and “making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

So why is the US negotiating without any of those conditions being met by Iran? I previously posted that the Iranian leadership (whoever they might be) issued a victory statement in announcing the two week ceasefire proclaiming that its enemies had suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.” 

Apparently they didn’t know they had lost. Yes they have suffered staggering losses but it looks like they were prepared for that. Essentially they did not defend themselves, rather sending missiles and drones to attack US facilities, Israel and that of Gulf allies. To me it looked as if the Iranians were hunkering down to repel any ground attack rather than to sacrifice their forces in a direct confrontation with the Americans in the air and on the sea.

Although battered and bruised, Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and rather than the US achieving any of its stated goals, including regime change, the Iranians achieved a strategic victory. I don’t know if Trump realized that the Iranians likely had only one goal, that of survival. Iran’s regime is still in place. It still governs with an iron first. It still threatens its neighbors. And now it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had demanded that the Strait be opened or else he would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. Well the Strait is opened but only with the consent of the Iranians.  Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised ships “safe passage” through the strait for the two weeks but only “in coordination” with Iranian armed forces and “with due consideration of technical limitations.”

Look, I am no geopolitical expert. Nor am I an expert on military tactics. But it looks like taking out the top layer of Iranian leadership has led to the accension of more anti-American leaders with a more prominent role for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trump as is his wont first indicated that Iran’s demand that ships pay a $2 million toll  to cover the cost of damage inflicted by the war – might be okay if the US shared in it! Trump told ABC News on that the US may look for a “joint venture” with Iran to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz. Then of course he recanted and that they had better not charge the toll. By the way, he also had said that negotiations would only start on the condition that Iran agreed to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” But that didn’t happen as well since Trump sent Vance to negotiate while Iran still has control of the Strait and there are over 3,000 vessels still waiting for safe passage. 

Meanwhile, the “totally defeated” Iranians have rejected US conditions for a ceasefire at the negotiating table. Vance said “We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.” Trump says that that is okay. “We win, regardless,” he said. “We’ve defeated them militarily.” Now he says we will blockade the strait. Regardless, the Iranians did not sue for peace and I doubt if Trump’s blockade will change things. They did not come to the table cowering with their tails between their legs. The regime is still in power, albeit with different leaders. They still control the Strait of Hormuz. They still have thousands of missiles. They still have enriched uranium. So we may have won a decisive victory. But we have not yet won the war.