Author: haroldblackphd

If I were dictator for a year (I need more than a day)

Make the federal government including the military more cost efficient

End wokeness and equity throughout the federal government including the military

End Title IX gender inclusion

Take DEI out of the military academies

Institute cross the board reduction in federal budgets by 5% per year

End all duplicate federal functions

Eliminate federal minimum wage

Raise the full “retirement” age on Social Security to 70.

End all automatic escalators in entitlement programs

Phase out mandatory social security private accounts and replace with IRAs.

Restrict the growth in the federal budget to the rate of growth in the previous year’s GDP

Institute a flat tax with no exemptions and no deductions regardless of income 

Scuttle the Green New Deal

Make America energy independent

Adopt an all-in energy policy with solar, nuclear and fossil fuels.

End windmill energy

Repeal all green energy subsidies

End the new industrial policy of picking winners and losers in “green” energy

End all tariffs and quotas when reciprocated

Require all federal agencies to review on a periodic basis all regulations and conduct a cost/benefit analysis of each

Build a “porcupine” defense around Taiwan

Aid Viet Nam and the Philippines in their confronting Chinese aggression in the South China Sea

Reopen all energy pipelines

Reopen energy sources off shore and in Alaska

Fully support Israel and Ukraine (provided they get their act together)

Isolate Iran and support Israel’s war on Iran’s proxies

Withdraw from the United Nations and expel them from New York

Make active duty military pay fully tax free

Fully restore natural gas exports

End all foreign aid to governments that do not fully support us

End support of foreign wokeness

Fly only the US flag at government buildings and installations worldwide

Get government out of the climate change business (leave it only to private enterprise)

Get the Department of “Justice” out of the lawfare business

Free the political prisoners of Jan 6.

Ensure that voting in federal elections is free from fraud

Ensure that only citizens vote in federal elections

Fully support school choice

Provide incentives to eliminate differences in reading and math proficiencies. 

Fully support small business

Reduce regulatory burdens on all businesses but especially small business

Limit the number of new pages in the Federal Register

Remove constraints such as the Davis-Bacon Act which regulates federal wage contracts and the Jones Act which hinders maritime trade

Eliminate the corporate income tax

Abolish the capital gains tax

Eliminate all disincentives from Federal programs

Establish third party boards to negotiate labor contracts with the federal government

Move most of the federal agencies out of Washington

Have federal salaries not to exceed those in the private sector

End all federal welfare and transfer payments and replace them with block grants to the states

Abolish discretionary federal reserve monetary policy which leads to irresponsible tinkering by the Fed. Impose Friedman’s monetary rule of allowing the money supply to grow at the long run GDP growth each year – removing uncertainty

Abolish public sector defined benefit plans and replace them with defined contribution plans.

Repeal health care “reform”. There are market solutions that will work including those designed for pre-existing conditions.

Abolish the departments of education, energy, and agriculture (for starts) and allocate their funding (where appropriate) to the states via block grants.

Abolish all agricultural subsidies. 

Encourage and reward risk taking. Ensure that all programs provide positive incentives to be productive rather than negative ones that discourage work.

Close the border to all illegal migrants and expel all those who enter illegally after closing the border

For those already in the country, require all to have work permits and deport able bodied illegals who do not have work permits

Do not deport illegal criminals. Rather give them mandatory minimum prison sentences

Tie school grants to the teaching of economics, civics, American history and the elimination of woke curricula such as woke mathematics and queer history

Require all teachers to be proficient in the subjects that they teach. Too many would fail exams in their subject matter

Subject the anti-Semitic pro Hamas protestors to hate crimes prosecution

Eliminate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and send its functions back to the regulatory agencies

Have a third party evaluate the FBI and eliminate it if it no longer serves its purpose

Make the Federal government reimburse those that it sues if it loses in court. Currently many companies settle because of the cost of litigation

Make all changes in regulations and the tax code require a 60 percent approval in both houses of congress

Make chocolate chocolate chip the national ice cream

Note: What did I leave out?

Dictator for a year and other thoughts

Liz Chaney, who openly and vehemently hates Trump, is now campaigning with Kamala Harris. I don’t know what this accomplishes. Cheney, who is thoroughly disliked by republicans, is not going to convince other republicans to vote for Harris because a vote for Harris is a vote for four more years of Biden’s disastrous policies. Of course, most democrats think that those policies were wonderful and not a disaster. So what if we had record inflation, high energy bills, foreign failures, record low enlistments in the military. That’s a small price to pay for increased gender awareness, equity and the Green New Deal.

I encourage all the so-called republicans who will vote for Harris to leave the party and become democrats. 

I am not a Trump republican. Trump’s economics run counter to my beliefs and empirical findings. Yet as much as I dislike Trump, I dislike the leftist democrats even more. While it is true that If Trump were elected and his policies implemented, that the economy would likely go downward, a Harris election would mean that and more. The democrats would move to eliminate the electoral college, to pack the Supreme Court, to take control of elections from the states and to threaten the foundations of the country.

Again I think that the democrats should split into two parties: the leftists versus the moderates. Sometimes I wonder if there are any moderate democrats left. But then I have several close friends who are old time democrats like JFK, Bill Proxmire and Scoop Jackson. I also think that the republicans should split as well. Trump by picking JD Vance has cemented in that wing of the republican party – call it the isolationist wing. There are others, like me, who are free trade (no subsidies or tariffs), laissez faire, government with a small g. I’ll never be a Trump republican and will only vote for that ilk if and only if the democrats keep nominating socialists.

In a conversation I had with a prominent economist who has had nice things to say about both Trump and Harris, he contended that Trump was using the threat of tariffs as a bargaining tool. Personally, I don’t believe that but this economist actually talks to Trump. He pointed out that at a conference of G-7 countries, Trump offered to remove all tariffs if the others did the same. He had no takers.

China is a mess. Its real estate market has collapsed. There are 90 million unoccupied apartment units in the country. 90 million! Its economy is slowing. Their response is to add more stimulus to the economy even though government spending is what has caused the mess in the first place. Xi’s policies are making things worse. He is a died in the wool Marxist (or is it Maoist?) and hates capitalism. He is committed to his mercantilist ways in subsidizing exports and discouraging imports while limiting capitalistic ventures. With its population collapsing and the economy slowing, China is in serious trouble. Don’t forget that it is still a third world country with a GDP per capital less than Mexico’s.

That FEMA doesn’t have enough funds for hurricane season while paying millions to care for illegals is scandalous. Not only should Mayokas be impeached (again) the Senate should convict him. If something similar would have happened under Trump, he would be fired. Has Biden fired anyone?

Speaking of the Senate, all those democrats who want to get rid of the Electoral College should also want to reconstruct the House of Representatives and get rid of the Senate. Recall that the Electoral College’s membership is determined by adding a state’s representatives with its senators. Therefore, if the Electoral College is a threat to democracy then so are the House and the Senate.

One of my progressive socialist friends who hates Trump to the point of irrationality and wishing him dead insists that despite his denials Trump is in favor of everything in Project 2025. She says that Trump is lying and wants to abolish NOAA. She says that he actually would stop forecasting hurricanes and their tracking of storms. If she read that section of Project 2025 she would see that the writer does not want to abolish the hurricane center but does favor getting rid of those parts of NOAA that are shills for climate change. I asked her if Harris was lying when she claims her positions have changed on the Wall and fracking. Then is Harris contradicting herself when she says that she can’t think of a thing that she would do differently than what Biden has done? She said that it doesn’t matter so long as she gets elected.

I asked three of my progressive friends that if they could, how would they change the country. I told them I would not critique their answers. One had responded that she would impose a single payer health system and put the pharmaceuticals under government control but she still favored private ownership of private property. One said she had to give it some thought. The other has not responded. But I am genuinely curious. I know that if I were dictator for a year what I would do. What would you do?

The undecided, the uninformed American voter

Last week I was in Georgia at the farm bow hunting. As usual because it was deer season I was overrun with wild turkeys. I wish Georgia would have a fall season because in the spring when it is legal to hunt turkeys I am always overrun with deer.

You can tell that Georgia is a crucial state in this election by all the ads. Not so much in Tennessee. One of the Harris ads that plays every ten minutes or so is that Harris “will make billionaires pay their fair share” and that Trump will give his fellow billionaires a tax cut. One ad features a man who endorses Harris while putting gas in his car. Strange, because the price he is paying at the pump is much higher under Harris than it was under Trump. Also (I haven’t verified this) at a lecture a few weeks ago one of the leading tax economists stated that historically when the tax on billionaires is increased, the well being of the lower 5 percent falls and vice versa. If true, then Harris should be campaigning for a decrease in the taxes on the wealthy in order to help the poor.

Did you know that Harris wants to cut taxes to the middle income households while Trump has proposed a national sales tax that will costs those households $4,000 per year? Well that is what another Harris ad says.  It is from her acceptance speech at the Democrat National Convention. The so-called “national sales tax” is what Harris’ ad is labelling Trump’s pledge to impose across the board tariffs on imports.

Another Harris ad says that Trump will impose a nationwide ban on IVF treatments. Of course Trump has said that he wants IVF treatments to be paid for by the government (another of his pandering). To date I have seen no Trump ads refuting either claim of a national sales tax or on IVF. The one Trump ad that is constantly played is of Harris advocating transgender surgeries to inmates. Personally I think an ad on Title IX would be more effective especially one in which biological males are allowed in girls dressing rooms and displacing girls on athletic teams.

Barack Obama is chastising black men for their lack of enthusiasm for Harris. In the real world if 72% supported a candidate, it would be called a landslide. But not in Obama’s world. Speaking of Obama, is he ill? He looks awful.

There have been some of the usual accusations that Harris is not appealing to some voters because she is a woman of color, implying that if she were a white male, the same group would vote for her. Really? That would imply that the same group supports Bernie Sanders but not Harris. Only a fool would think that because the Bernie bros are all in for Harris.

I wonder if the lack of interviews and total absence of press conferences is actually hurting Harris. This would assume that the electorate is actually paying attention. I strongly suspect that the number of people who are undecided is so small in number that they will not make a difference. There are two challenges for Trump. The first is to get people who normally do not vote (see evangelistic Christians) to vote. Note: that evangelistic Christians do not embrace Trump should be no surprise. It would be akin to black voters in Alabama voting for George Wallace – oh wait, didn’t Wallace get 90% of the black vote when he ran for governor in 1982? The second is to motivate the uninformed voter to go to the polls. In the 2020 elections, voter participation was 66% meaning that 81 million eligible voters did not vote. To me that is astounding. Trump’s strategy is to get these slackers to the polls by scaring the hell out of them. To wit: illegal gangs are taking over apartment buildings; illegals are raping your women; illegals are eating your pets; illegals are murderers with bad genes; “If we lose this election, the country is finished”; Trump’s opponents are no longer incompetent, they are mentally impaired; Harris is now called “stupid”; Walz is now a “total moron”; We now need “one rough day” against criminals. The democrats have long argued that Trump is a threat to democracy. Trump has countered by saying that if Harris is elected then Israel will cease to exist.

Whether Trump will be successful in scaring the uninformed and the indifferent eligible voter to go vote is an empirical question. Post election see if the percent of eligible voters who vote is increased.

Kamala Harris and the politics of envy

Kamala Harris is running as the “candidate of change” promising a “new way forward.” Has she forgotten that she was Joe Biden’s vice president? Since the majority of voters says the country is heading in the wrong direction, she thinks the electorate must have amnesia. The polls indicate that she might be right. Again, any candidate but Trump would be 20 points ahead and have a landslide victory rivaling that of Nixon’s over McGovern who managed to eke out 17 electoral votes.

Kamala Harris, who as you know, grew up a poor girl forced to ride school buses and flip burgers at McDonald’s and could not afford to go to her parent’s schools (Berkeley and Stanford) like her younger sister, is your typical working class person of color.

Harris is running ads saying that she will make billionaires “pay their fair share” whatever that is. What is fair? The US tax code is one of the most progressive in the world. In 2020, the top 1% of taxpayers paid $42% of all federal income taxes despite earning only 22% of taxable income. The bottom 90% paid only 26% despite earning 50% of income. Is this fair? By the way, 34% of all tax filers paid no income taxes at all. Is this fair? I think not. I think that all earners should pay a minimum tax regardless of income as part of the price of residency.

Let us suppose that their fair share is the max tax bracket of 37%. Of course, one problem is that some billionaires may have very little income. Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffet have a salary of about $100,000 a year which puts them in the 22% tax bracket. This is where Biden’s proposed tax on unrealized capital gains comes in. Of course, most billionaires including the democrat ones oppose such a tax. Even Mark Cuban who has been acting as a Harris surrogate telling us what she really means, is against the tax. Another problem is how to treat unrealized capital losses. For example, last year Elon Musk “lost” $24 billion when Tesla stock fell 9%. Does this mean that Musk who as a result was worth only $232 billion would be due a tax refund?

What about Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax? She wants a 2% tax on every dollar of net worth over $50 million and an additional 1% on every dollar of net worth over $1 billion. Instead of impacting just the 500 or so billionaires in the country, it would affect over 75,000 households. Some European countries have instituted such a tax and it has been a flop. In France, before Macron killed it, 42,000 millionaires left the country. As a result, wealth taxes raise less revenue than anticipated. Warren’s proposal would tax people regardless of where they lived. If they were to change citizenship it would levy an exit tax of 40 percent of wealth over $50 million. However, one problem is for the government to estimate yearly the market value of all of person’s assets. The high administrative costs of such a task caused Austria to end their tax. Again, let the billionaires who back Warren lead by example. Let them donate 2% of every dollar of net worth over $50 million and 1% of every dollar of net worth over $1 billion. It would be only fair!

What is fair? The US tax code is one of the most progressive in the world. In 2020, the top 1% of taxpayers paid $42% of all federal income taxes despite earning only 22% of taxable income. The bottom 90% paid only 26% despite earning 50% of income. Is this fair? By the way, 34% of all tax filers paid no income taxes at all. Is this fair? I think not. I think that all earners should pay a minimum tax regardless of income as part of the price of residency.

Here is a better idea, let the billionaire democrats voluntarily donate a certain percent of their wealth each year to the federal coffers. So Cuban, Bloomberg, Soros, Steyer, Jobs, Pritzker, Schultz (Starbucks), Gray (Blackstone) and the rest should, in addition to buying influence, could then have Harris change her campaign spiel from making billionaires pay their fair share to “make republican billionaires pay their fair share too”.

Random Thoughts #44

The Chinese economy is a mess. Recently their overlords have started allowing mortgages to be refinanced due to cuts in the central bank’s lending rates. Mind you, this is in the face of a four year contraction in the real estate market. The question is what took so long? The government also announced that the minimum downpayment has been reduced from 25% to 15%. No word if they are also going to adopt Harris’ plan to give first time homebuyers $25,000.

The Chinese are faced with a declining population that will shrink by 240 million by the end of the century. They have hundreds of thousands of empty housing units as a result of state planning, leading to their real estate bust. Their national debt is probably unsustainable eventually leading to a severe economic contraction. China is becoming the poster child on the effects of a planned economy and the folly of heavy subsidization of industry.

As part of its stimulus package, the Chinese government is also lending money to companies for share repurchase in an effort to stimulate its stock market. In this country the left hates stock repurchases and proposed a 2% stock buyback tax. In fact the so-called Inflation Reduction Act contains a 1% excise tax on buybacks. I guess Biden, Schumer and Sanders forgot to consult with Xi on this one.

Showing that they can throw dirt like the leftist media, some conservative outlets are filling their pages with talk about Doug Emhoff, Kamala Harris’ husband. They are reporting that he impregnated his first wife’s nanny and physically assaulted an ex-girlfriend by “slapping her so hard she spun around.” I wonder if this is fair game given all the press on Trump’s peccadillos.

Did you watch the vice presidential debate? I didn’t. I watched a baseball game instead. One, I hate political speech. Two, I like baseball. Even though the Braves have been eliminated, I will still watch. I am one of the few people that if a baseball game and a pro football game are on, I will watch baseball regardless of what team is playing. 

Isn’t it interesting that the best player in baseball is Japanese?

Isn’t it also interesting that since there are so few American blacks playing baseball that the baseball teams at HBCUs are often predominately white?

Why are there so many Australian punters in college football?

As is the case with college baseball, it seems that most of the place kickers at HBCUs are also white.

There are so many things I miss about not having my parents alive. One of them is the annual rivalry between Fort Valley State (Mother’s alma mater) and Savannah State (Dad’s alma mater). This year Fort Valley won 30-0. I can just see Dad having to wear Fort Valley’s colors to church after the loss. Mother would be relentless in her critique of the game highlighting every Savannah State misstep. Poor Dad.

Have you noticed that in the reporting of the war in Gaza that many of the news outlets have stopped saying the phrase after they report that “tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed” that “most of whom are women and children”?

School is back in. I have not seen any reports of student encampments on college campuses and anti-Semitic rallies or attacks on Jewish students. Have you?

I have always read that vice presidents don’t matter. I guess they don’t matter so long as the president is living. But do you think that Tim (Little Bernie) Walz is causing Harris to lose some voters?

I am in the camp of those who are voting against a candidate, rather than voting for one. I do know some ardent Trump supporters. I appear monthly on a local talk show and there is one regular caller who idolizes Trump. I have two close friends who hate Trump and would vote for my German Shorthaired Pointer first. But both really like Harris. Both are progressives and are excited about getting the first progressive president. Ilhan Omar is excited too saying that once Harris is in office, it won’t take much to push her even further to the left. Bernie Sanders has said much the same.

Has Biden fired anyone? Trump had a steady stream of cabinet members but to my knowledge Biden’s cabinet is still intact.

Alan Dershowitz left the democrat party due to its anti-Semitism. He is now an independent who if he were a politician, I would presume would still caucus with the democrats as do Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema. The other “independents” in the senate, Bernie Sanders and Angus King also caucus with the democrats. I wonder if the takeover of the republican party by the anti-trade protectionist Trump wing will cause some republicans to become “independents” yet continue to caucus with the republicans. I would be in that camp.

Trump’s tariffs: A Primer

Trump who calls himself the Tariff Man loves tariffs. He wants a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, an across the board 20% tariff on imports, a 100% tariff on Mexican goods produced by US firms and in some cases 200% tariffs on other goods. Trump calls tariffs “the greatest thing ever invented.” He has asserted that tariffs will save factory jobs, force companies to produce domestically, shrink the federal deficit, lower food prices and promote world peace. For some reason he did not include cure cancer and the common cold. He has also suggested replacing the income tax with the revenue from tariffs. Penn should rescind Trump’s economics degree.

Trump is making a common political mistake. He is assuming that behavior will not change when there is a change in prices. If imported goods are subjected to a tariff then the price of those goods will increase, decreasing the quantity of goods demanded domestically. Trump is assuming that the decrease in the goods imported will be replaced by domestically produced goods. He ignores two things. First, the decreased imports mean less money flows to the government from foreign goods. Second, he forgets the reason why the goods are manufactured in foreign countries in the first place, comparative advantage. For those goods to be produced domestically would mean a significant increase in the cost of production, meaning higher prices to consumers. In either case, the real income of consumers fall. Notably, the poor and working class families will suffer the greatest fall in real incomes since they consume greater proportions of imported goods than do higher income households.

Can tariffs replace the income tax? In a word, no. Given the predilection of the press to scrutinize every utterance of Trump, I am surprised, shocked, that they have failed to do the math. In 2023, the federal government collected $2 trillion in personal income taxes. The amount of imported goods was around $4 trillion. If Trump enacted a tariff of 20% it would raise “only” $800 million assuming perfectly inelastic demand for all imported goods (no change in demand when prices change). In order to completely replace the income tax, a tariff of 50% would have to be enacted. However, since the demand for imported goods would fall as prices increased by 50%, much less would be collected, necessitating an even larger increase in tariffs. I wonder if Trump learned about the Smoot-Hawley Act at Penn? It was enacted in 1930, signed by President Hoover and placed tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. Our trading partners retaliated resulting in a 70% reduction in imports and exports. Mind you, this was during the Great Depression which shows that stupidity amongst politicians is endemic regardless of era. Let us assume that a similar reaction would take place today and there would be a 70 percent reduction in US imports and exports. Imagine the impact on those domestic manufacturers who rely on imported raw materials. Imagine the impact on consumers – especially low income households. Imagine the impact on prices and on jobs. And Trump thinks tariffs are “the greatest thing ever invented”?

Clarence Thomas is 76 and is the longest serving member of the Supreme Court having been on the court since 1991. When will he retire? I doubt if he will retire if there is a democrat president and would as soon die on the bench. However, if Trump gets reelected I would not be surprised if he decided to retire. The question would then arise whether Trump would appoint another black to the court. Recall that Thomas succeeded Thurgood Marshall and some – especially on the left – consider it as the blacks’ seat. How about Condoleeza Rice or Tim Scott? If Trump wanted to appoint a sitting judge then there are 11 black federal judges he appointed during his first term. If Trump were to appoint a Latina there is Barbara Logoa who is on the court of appeals of the eleventh circuit and was a justice on the Florida Supreme Court.

Did you see the Georgia Alabama game? It has been called an instant classic. It aged me at least 10 years. Georgia’s overtouted quarterback conspired to keep both teams in the game and at the end managed to underthrow a ball in the end zone to an Alabama defender which ensured an Alabama victory. They may play two more times (SEC championship game – beware of Texas – and in the playoffs). Although I admit I am biased, I think Georgia would win those two games.

A friend pointed out the EV fires caused by Helene. I once wondered if it were safe to drive an EV through a carwash. It seems that salt water and lithium batteries do not get along. There were 20 EV fires reported due to Hurricane Ian. In advance of Helene, Florida owners were told to get their EVs and golf carts to high ground. Tampa with 40,000 EVs reported at least several EV fires with one destroying an upscale home. A fire department spokesman said that they had received many reports of e-bikes exploding. Although a fire may not immediately result, salt water causes corrosion and the chemical reaction that causes the fire could occur weeks later. I would not want that time bomb sitting in my garage.

How do panhandlers get to their corners? The only time I give one money is if they have a dog with them. Have you noticed that regardless of how the beggar looks, the dog is always healthy and happy? I knew a guy who always carried cans of dog food in his vehicle. He would give the beggar a can for his dog. If the beggar didn’t accept the dog food graciously, he would drive off. If the beggar was genuinely appreciative, he would give him $5. 

Do you believe the polls? I don’t. Statistical analysis shows that most polls overestimate the performance of democrat candidates. There are all sorts of lame excuses such as “They undercount voters who did not go to college” or “Republican voters tend to hang up”. Never do they same that their sampling is lousy or that they are biased for the democrat. The polls oversample democrats. I wonder why? Is it that they are trying to discourage republicans from voting by indicating that the democrat is going to win? There is evidence that polls do discourage people from voting. One pollster when asked why his polls were so lousy said, I presume with a straight face, that they were accurate “if you doubled the margin of error”! 

But let’s assume that the composite of all polls is correct. If all the states that are thought to be in the republican and democrat columns are correct, then there are only four “tossup” states, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. How do either Trump or Harris get to 270 Electoral College votes? If Harris wins all the states in which she is a statistical favorite plus Pennsylvania, she wins. If Trump wins all the states in which he is a statistical favorite plus Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, he wins. So Pennsylvania is the key. I wonder if Harris now regrets not picking Josh Shapiro instead of the statistically useless albatross Tim Walz?

Pack the Court!

Harris now says she doesn’t support the administration’s EV mandate. Apparently she forgot that she endorsed it as a failed candidate in 2019 and was one of the co-sponsors of the Green New Deal. I guess she has forgotten her obsession with the electric school buses and her failed signature $5 billion plan? Of course she also now favors building the wall, which she once said was “unAmerican”.  She has also changed her position on Medicare for All and fracking. Again, “how can you tell if a politician is lying?”

Do you remember “It’s the economy stupid?” Apparently, Trump doesn’t. Remember “Are you better off now than four years ago?” Apparently Trump doesn’t remember that either. Instead of honing his message to highlight the failures of this administration (Afghanistan, illegal immigration, crime, inflation, lower real incomes, obsession with climate change, Title IX and all the rest) he has resorted to pandering to whatever audience is before him. I am not going to bemoan that he cannot stay on message since I am not sure I know – or he knows – what his message is. Trump is undisciplined. He is also a narcissistic bully. But hey, nobody is perfect. Better a narcissistic bully than a vacuous empty suit incapable of cogently articulating policy initiatives. I doubt if Trump can be dominated by pressure groups or certain individuals but I don’t have that doubt when it comes to Harris. She will be worse than Biden who at least had a veneer of being moderate. Harris has no veneer. She will double down on the past four years much to the delight of AOC and the Bernie bros.

It is obvious to me and likely also obvious to the voting public that the ills plaguing the economy are the result of actions of the government. Trump needs to point that out and hammer home that message. Thus far he has not talked about the adverse effect of heavy handed regulation. He has not talked about the administrative state or out of control government spending. He has avoided talking about the federal debt. These are issues that would redound to the voters who cringe at “I’m from the government and am here to help you.” The reason, of course, is that Trump is at heart a big spender. The mere fact that the race is so close speaks volumes about Trump being a lousy candidate. In any other race, the sitting vice president in such a disastrous administration would be polling in the low 30s.

Ron Wyden (D, OR) who chairs the Senate Finance Committee has introduced legislation to add six new justices to the Supreme Court increasing its number from nine to 15 over a 12 year period. I think it is a brilliant idea. Just like when Harry Reid got rid of the filibuster for Supreme Court justices and gave us the three Trump appointees, Wyden suffers from the same stupidity thinking that the democrats will always control the Senate. If Trump gets elected despite all his efforts to the contrary and somehow the republicans take control of the Senate, I want them to pass Wyden’s bill. The only difference is that I want Trump to appoint 6 new justices during the first month of his term rather than have the size increased over 12 years. That will ensure that the Supreme Court will continue to be a firewall into the foreseeable future against the democrats’ efforts to destroy the republic.

What are the chances that the republicans can take the Senate? All signs point to republicans being elected in Montana and West Virginia. The only reason why Ohio is not in the republican column is that its candidate, Bernie Moreno is solidly anti-abortion. Otherwise, that Ohio keeps electing the far left Sherrod Brown is a real puzzler. Arizona republicans keep nominating the toxic Kari Lake, a proven loser and so the scandal ridden Ruben Gallego will likely win. Recall that Trump almost single handedly is responsible for turning Arizona from reliably  republican to democrat with his callous attack on John McCain. In Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Maryland democrats all enjoy comfortable margins over the republicans. The only close race for a republican incumbent is Texas where Ted Cruz is only 3 points up over Rep. Colin Allred. But let us say that on election day, the republicans somehow end up with 52 seats in the senate and Trump wins, they should take the cue from the democrats and ram though their agenda. Of course, this assumes that they will temporarily cease being the Stupid Party.

More random thoughts

The University of Pennsylvania has censured Amy Wax a tenured law professor over her comments that some deemed to be racist. She said that because of affirmative action less qualified blacks were admitted to law school. She invited a white nationalist to speak to her class. She was taken to task for saying “All cultures are not equal. Or at least they are not equal in preparing people to be productive in an advanced economy.” I guess Penn has statistics contradicting Wax’s comments on black law students. But they don’t. What they assert is that Wax’s statements violate school policy regarding the confidentiality of the student. I am sure that Penn will now take steps to censure all those professors who have invited anti-Semitic speakers into their classes and censure those who made hateful anti-Semitic comments during the recent proHamas demonstrations.

How about all that media outrage over Nancy Pelosi’s husband selling $500k of Visa stock right before the DOJ announced a major lawsuit against the credit card issuer? Wait. You mean there was no outrage? Imagine the reaction if it had been the spouse of a republican leader.

Kamala Harris said that she would support a suspension of the filibuster to enact a nationwide abortion law. The media nods its approval. Again imagine what the reaction would be if Trump said that he favored a suspension of the filibuster to enact a nationwide ban on abortion. The media would be crying that this would be tyrannical and dictatorial. Media bias on full display.

If the democrats were in the majority in the senate don’t think that a suspension of the filibuster for abortion would be their only act. There would follow giving statehood to DC and to Puerto Rico to insure a democrat majority in the senate forever.

Right now the senate, the Electoral College, some of the courts and the Constitution are what standing between the democrats’ attempts to making the country a one party state. Of course some are questioning why South Dakota has the same number of senators as California. Most want to get rid of the Electoral College so that a republican will hardly ever be elected president. Some want to trash the Constitution to get rid of gun rights, allowing non citizens to vote in federal elections and other pesky restrictions.

Is Biden still president? He did make an appearance with the president of India and of course forgot his name.

I hate the hideous City Connect baseball uniforms. Have you seen Toronto’s? The only ones that are passable are Atlanta’s which look like those worn during a period when Hank Aaron was playing.

Did you see where the House voted against EPA’s tailpipe mandate? Of course it will not pass the Senate and if it did Biden would veto it. What is notable is that the democrats running for the Senate in Michigan and Texas voted against it. Both of those states would be adversely affected if the EPA mandate were enacted. Michigan would lose workers in the automotive industry while Texas would lose workers in the oil fields. Note too that both of these candidates also favor getting rid of the filibuster. 

Congress finally passed a continuing resolution. It expires in December and was stripped if the SAVE act. The only ones who voted against were those who scuttled Johnson’s initial CR (6 months plus the SAVE act) and those who insisted on the inclusion of the bill. I would be shocked if Johnson retained his speakership. But who in his/her right mind would want to lead this bunch?

Trump is now going after John Deere for moving production to Mexico (Deere in the headlights?). He is threatening 200% tariffs on any product produced by an American country outside the US. Trump loves tariffs.

Any comprehensive analysis of the economic plans of both Trump and Harris will find that both will be harmful to the economy. Harris’ $5 trillion tax increase and its unrealized capital gains tax would cripple the economy. It has more handouts which coupled with the increased taxes provide disincentives to both the productive and nonproductive workers. Trump’s tariffs would also devastate the economy raising prices to consumers, reducing real incomes and lowering GDP. 

The jury is out on which set of policies will ultimately be the most harmful. However, one thing is clear. If the democrats can somehow obtain majorities in the House, Senate and win the presidency the American republic will be replaced by the tyranny of the majority, something feared by the Founders. I strongly suspect that those states with republican leadership and legislatures will resist and opt not to bow to the whims of the democrat majority. They will just say no to the EPA mandates and the banning of internal combustion engines. They will say no to the repeal of their state laws on abortion. They will just say no to illegal immigration. The question then would be the reaction of the national democrats and how they would go about getting the republican states to kow tow to their dictates. It should be interesting theatre.

“Politically beyond stupid”

Well the stupid party did it again. Instead of uniting to pass a continuing resolution that the democrats would have never let become law, fourteen republicans voted with all the democrats but three to oppose Speaker Johnson’s CR. His CR was for six months and contained the SAVE legislation which would have required documentation to vote in federal elections. Again the republicans should have united around any CR knowing that it would not pass the Senate and if it did Biden would veto it. Then the onus of a federal shutdown would have been on the democrats. Instead the stupid republicans doomed their own CR meaning that any shutdown would fall on them. Mitch McConnell called the actions of the republicans in the House “politically beyond stupid.” Indeed. And who were these recalcitrant republicans? They are Jim Banks, Andy Biggs, Lauren Boebert, Elijah Crane, Matt Gaetz, Wesley Hunt, Doug Lamborn, Nancy Mace, Cory Mills, Mike Rogers, Matt Rosendale, Gregory Steube, Beth Van Duyne and of course our own Tim Burchett. Note that all other members of the Tennessee delegation voted with the speaker as did firebrands Majorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan. I really don’t understand how that fourteen, especially Burchett can be comfortable voting with AOC and the rest of the Squad. 

Speaking of which, have you noticed that the democrats do a much better job of herding cats than the republicans? Case in point is the presidential campaign where the media has transformed the least liked national politician into a beacon of hope and joy who is leading in the national polls. A word of caution here. Harris is leading in the national polls because she is a democrat and will win the majority of votes regardless of her positions. The key is whether she is leading in enough states to give her 270 electoral votes. Currently she isn’t but part of the media campaign is to discourage republican turnout by giving Harris the victory in October rather than in November. Note the discipline of the democrats as contrasted to the republicans. In the campaign nothing has been heard from the left wing of the party. As a good friend of mine has noted, the democrats have hit the Squad and the far left with the “mute” button. What have you heard from AOC who must be having withdrawal pains by not being in front of microphones? Even Omar has shut up whining about the Administration’s quasi-support of Israel. They are letting Harris lie her way to the presidency while the republicans are undermining their own candidate. Some have called the democrats the evil party, Well on this score, the democrats are the smart evil party.

I had lunch with another dear friend. This one hates Trump with a passion and was wearing a cap that said “Prosecutor versus Felon.” We literally have virtually everything in common – life experiences, tastes in clothes, drive the same car with the same color – except politics. He is convinced that Trump will do all he can to be a dictator and do all he can to further enrich his billionaire buddies as opposed to Harris continuing to enrich the democrat’s billionaire bros. We don’t talk about politics. But I found his cap amusing. He somehow has convinced himself that Trump got a “fair” trail in New York, despite having a partisan judge, a partisan jury and convicted on “trumped” up charges that stretched a misdemeanor with expired statute of limitations into a felony. He should realize that when he was growing up in the deep south, that blacks were routinely subjected to the same “justice” imposed by all white judges, all white juries, all white law enforcement and an all white legal system. I guess he doesn’t realize that this mockery of justice makes Trump another black president.