Author: haroldblackphd

If influx of illegals cause housing costs to increase then mass deportations cause housing costs to fall. Right?

Affordability is the new buzz word. President Trump benefited from President Biden’s mismanagement of the economy and now the pundits are saying that the recent victories by democrats in New Jersey, New York, Virginia and Georgia are a product of Trump’s mismanagement of the economy perpetuating the crisis of affordability. While the term applies to a wide variety of prices a good deal of recent conversations has focused on housing affordability. When Biden was president and Trump was on the campaign trail, Trump pointed the blame for the high cost of housing on the surge of illegal immigrants during the Biden years. Pointing out that an average of 2.5 million illegals per year had come into the country, Trump said that deporting millions of illegals would positively impact the U.S. housing market by freeing homes for Americans and boosting inventory across the country. Has it?

Now elected, his vice president, JD Vance has put the high cost of housing squarely on the influx of illegals. Vance said “A lot of young people are saying, housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegals who are taking houses that ought, by right, to go to American citizens.”

You know, it sounds reasonable. But as my father used to say to me “That sounds good – if you are interested in sounds.” It’s an empirical question. One would think that the areas where the illegals settled would have seen a surge in prices greater than the country at large. Although Vance attributes the high cost of housing to the illegals, one would think the impact would be on the rental market rather than the market for homes. 

Shouldn’t prices be higher in areas with more illegals? Fed governor Michelle Bowman said “Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents.” There are empirical questions that need to be researched regarding whether the low inventory and resulting high prices are due to the illegals. Studies of the question should look at supply factors as well as demand.

Here is what two different studies have found. One study looked at the housing market and finds that there is “no significant relationship between unauthorized immigrants and general house price growth for each state in the U.S.” The study entitled “Beyond the hype: Unauthorized immigrants and the myth of rising house prices.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612325001503

Here is its abstract:

“A recent social and economic issue has addressed public attention: whether unauthorized immigrants drive up local housing prices. This study focuses on this issue and finds no significant relationship between unauthorized immigrants and general house price growth for each state in the U.S. We prove the robustness of this insignificance by addressing the endogeneity issue and applying alternative variables to measure house prices and the number of unauthorized immigrants. This study highlights the importance of ensuring political and public discourse based on evidence and rigorous analysis rather than oversimplified narratives.”

Another study looked at the growth in rents and home prices and data indicate that the timing of the recent immigration surge does not align with the significant increases in rents and home prices observed at the onset of the pandemic. While immigrants contribute to household growth, the surge in housing demand during the pandemic was primarily driven by native-born households amid a constrained housing supply.

 (https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs

I find both studies interesting although I would have modelled the research a bit differently. I would have concentrated on the rental market where one writer notes “For renters, things have gotten less bad. The rate of increase in

rents has flattened in most local markets and has even declined slightly in some areas. This is, in part, because the rent growth was so high over mid-2021 through mid-2023 that there was perhaps nowhere to go but down in terms of the rate of increase. But it also appears to be the case that a relatively large supply of new apartment construction coming online has moderated rent growth, providing some critical relief to cost-burdened renters. That said, a record number of renters are experiencing housing cost burden—defined as spending more than 30 percent of gross income on housing costs.”

Experts say that Illegals primarily rent rather than buy because of limitations on buying because of their legal status. Illegals are also more likely to double up or live with extended family members or nonrelatives compared to U.S.-born households. Again, this means that the primary impact would be in the rental market rather than the home purchase area.

Also have the mass deportations lowered rental and housing costs? Again this is an empirical question. Trump claimed that it would but so far the evidence is contrary. Some observers find the opposite has happened. Here is what some researchers have found “We’re able to show that when you increase immigration enforcement, you do in fact generate a reduction in the number of individuals who are supplying labor to the construction industry in a given county. We show that those reductions in workforce are associated with a large

decline in homebuilding.” Mass deportations, the researchers concluded, cause reductions in the construction sector’s workforce and residential homebuilding, decreasing construction and increasing home prices. Oops.

On the other side are two studies that make the argument that the influx of illegals has caused the price of housing to rise. One is from the website “Populist Policy” entitled “How illegal migrants drive up housing costs.” https://populistpolicy.org/how-illegal-migrants-drive-up-housing-costs/

The other is J.P. Morgan’s “The outlook for the US housing market in 2025 which has the sole statement “It’s estimated that there are 11.2 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., and that number may be higher. This could be ramping up housing demand more than figures suggest, resulting in a shortage of stock.”

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/real-estate/us-housing-market-outlook

In sum, it appears that the influx of illegals did not increase home prices due to their occupying rental homes. However, mass deportations caused a restriction in construction decreasing the construction of new housing and contributed to the rise in home prices. As to the rental market, I withhold judgment. The studies’ specifications do not actually address this question properly. Yet

while illegals may play some role in affecting housing prices, the majority of the reasons that there are increases in housing are other factors separate from the aliens that are due to the actions of governments at all levels. I will post another piece going into details those reasons for the high housing prices.

Kirby Smart and today’s world of NIL

Georgia’s Kirby Smart sometimes says smart things – although he should have kicked that field goal against Alabama. He recently said after the Dawgs throttled Texas 35-10 that “I don’t know that a lot of these kids nowadays, they want the check. They don’t want physicality. When you have the check and no physicality, you end up with nothing. So you’re not just getting checks at our place. We’re hitting people.” Smart is obviously saying that in today’s world where you have to pay your players that some just want the money and are not willing – or motivated – to put in the work it takes to win championships. Was he pointing a finger at the high priced Texas team that his Dawgs just embarrassed? His Georgia team has shown toughness and resiliency, especially in the fourth quarter where some teams simply fade. He is also sending a message to recruits that Georgia will pay their players, but the players must earn it, put in the work and be tough.

Georgia was one of the finalists for the coveted recruit Arch Manning. I blame my granddaughter who hosted Manning on his campus visit for his not signing with Georgia and going to Texas. I wonder what would Manning be like if he were wearing Red and Black rather than burnt orange? Regardless, Georgia’s quarterback Gunner Stockton seems perfect for the team and epitomizes Kirby’s mantra of toughness. I like him. Stockton drives an old Ford F-150 not the Lamborghini of his predecessor who left Georgia to be paid $4,000,000  (more than he would have gotten in the pros) to throw interceptions for the Miami Hurricanes. Stockton’s NIL valuation is only seventh among Georgia players and 53^rd among all college quarterbacks. He doesn’t seem like a prima donna.

Smart is smart. He is sending a message to all recruits. If you come to Georgia, you will get paid but you will have to earn your money. My other team is Ohio State (then the Tennessee Vols) who were roundly criticized last year for the money they spent on a team that won the national championship. But Texas was the top spender followed by Texas Tech, then followed by Ohio State, Oregon (Phil Knight), Texas A&M and Miami. Tennessee was ninth on the list and kicked out their starting quarterback who boycotted spring practice demanding more money. There were even stories of players refusing to play in the bowl games unless they were paid more. 

For the major schools, only the playoffs matter. But NIL matters as well. Texas Tech went out and bought a defensive line of players who all likely will be drafted in the first round. They are ranked seventh in the latest poll. Ohio State (Go Bucks!) is number one followed by Indiana (Indiana?), Texas A&M, Georgia and Oregon. Ole Miss is sixth. NIL obviously matters but Indiana shows the exception to the rule. The other programs are traditional powerhouses before NIL but you still have to recruit the right type of athlete and coach them up. One thing I would like to see changed is to not allow the players to jump from one program to another. Some players are on their fourth team although I do like allowing players to transfer when their coach gets fired.

I feel for the schools that do not have the NIL resources. If they have a star, that player can be approached and bid away by the richer programs. Yet coaches and athletic directors get fired because of losing games and not being bowl eligible, despite not being able to compete for four star and five star talent or to hold on to them if they do sign them. It probably is more difficult to stress the value of an education in this environment. I wonder if we will get to the point where going to class becomes optional although now you can say that if you don’t go to class and stay eligible, you won’t get paid.

But to win championships in this environment ultimately, comes down to asking your players “are you man enough?” Remember the song by that title by the Four Tops?

“Are you man enough, big and bad enough?
Are you gonna let ’em shoot ya down?
When the evil flies and your brother cries
Are you gonna be around?

Someone needs a friend, just around the bend
Don’t ya think you should be there?
Are you man enough when the goin’s rough?
Is it in your heart to care?”

My Dawgs care.

Chip Roy and the Sharia Boogie Man

Immigration is causing some republicans to lose their minds. Trump said in an interview that he might allow a few H1-Bs into the country and the MAGA than thous went ballistic. VP Vance wants all immigration shut down claiming somewhat bizarrely that the illegal immigrants are the blame for the housing shortage. Yep, its those folk coming across the border that are buying up all the $300,000 houses.

In the Vance camp is Chip Roy who is introducing legislation to completely freeze immigration. He calls it the “Pause Act” and says the country is dealing with a “cultural problem about who we are as Americans.” He then says “Why don’t we just freeze immigration entirely until we sort this crap out? Until we figure out who’s here, why they’re here, how many Chinese communists, how many people who are Islamists who want to remake America, how many people that are living on the public dole, that are living on welfare, that are going into the emergency room.” Then “We’re dealing with a mass community that is growing up that have no desire to assimilate and come here to become American and embrace Western civilization, embrace our Constitution, embrace our values,” Roy said. “Why are we importing any human being that is adherent to Sharia law, which is totally contrary to the Constitution and our values in Western civilization?

I guess Roy is referring to the proposed city 40 miles from Dallas called Epic City. It was supposed to be an Islamic residential community. Some called it the Sharia City and was vetoed by Governor Abbott who in turn designated the Muslim Brotherhood and the Council on American-Islamic Relations terrorist organizations. Roy may also be concerned about the concentration of Somali Muslim in Minneapolis that elected Ilhan Omar and almost elected a Muslim mayor who was defeated due to a conflict between his sect and the other predominate Muslim sect in the city. Other Muslims in congress are Indiana’s Andre Carson, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib and California’s Lateefah Simon. Roy is a smart guy and he probably knows that Muslims do practice Sharia Law much the same as other religions practice their “laws.” Maybe he wants to deport the Muslims that are here alleging that they are Muslims first rather than Americans. Or maybe he will follow his governor’s lead and declare Omar and Tlaib terrorists.

Chip Roy is in the US Congress along with Omar, Tlaib, Carson and Simon. Do they along with AOC, Pressley and members of the progressive caucus take the Congressional oath of office? “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.” If not, then they should be impeached.

Regarding Sharia Law. Consider that Muslims in the U.S. routinely use religious tribunals and arbitration panels to resolve family, inheritance, and commercial disputes within an Islamic legal framework; these voluntary processes mirror mediation used by many faith communities. When parties agree to arbitration, courts can enforce those decisions under the 1925 Federal Arbitration Act, provided the awards do not conflict with U.S. public policy or statutory rights, meaning private Sharia-based agreements can have legal force if they fit within established arbitration law.”  “For most American Muslims, Sharia functions as a personal and communal guide rather than a parallel legal system. Practices commonly shaped by Islamic law include prayer schedules, fasting during Ramadan, halal dietary rules, marriage contracts, and voluntary dispute resolution through community boards; these practices are largely private and accommodated within the broader American legal framework.”

See https://factually.co/fact-checks/society/sharia-law-practice-muslims-united-states-b4b879

To my knowledge Sharia in the United States is not allowed to reign over some local laws and jurisdictions like in other countries such as France or England.

Why Roy is afraid of Sharia law is beyond me. There is no chance that there will be a radical Muslim takeover of America and an imposition of Sharia law. Do you think that say for instance it could be imposed in Knoxville? Fat chance. I don’t know what Roy is really after but it seems that his professed worries of a takeover by the Muslims is a bit far fetched. I am old enough to remember when John F, Kennedy was running for president and some fundamentalists were asking if his allegiance to his Catholic religion and to the Pope would supersede his allegiance to the Constitution. At other points in time, some others asked the same about Jews in American politics and loyalty to Israel.

However, I do agree that we may be trouble as a country but it is not because of immigration. Recall Roy said that the country is dealing with a “cultural problem about who we are as Americans.” In that he is correct. When 62 percent of the democrats favor socialism over capitalism, when the majority of democrats polled said that they would not defend the country if invaded, we are in trouble as a country. Only 36% of democrats say they are very proud to be an American. Thirty-seven percent of democrats say that patriotism has a negative impact on the country. And this is not due to Donald Trump either. 

Less than 35 percent of Americans can pass the citizenship test given to immigrants seeking to become naturalized citizens, 57% do not know how many justices sit on the Supreme Court. Most Americans think we are a democracy and not a republic. How many know their senators or representatives? How many can name the three branches of government? Hardly no one knows how laws are proposed and enacted.

Justice Neal Gorsuch said that the greatest danger facing the country was “itself.” Here is what he said: “Thomas Jefferson said an ignorant people will never remain free for long and he is right. We need to know our history in order to preserve it.” He is right. This is the product of our “education” system that fails in every aspect. Our public school children are woefully ignorant. They cannot read, write or do math. They do not know civics. They are taught to embrace climate change, DEI, critical race theory and socialism. No Chip Roy, the danger is not Sharia Law, the danger is ourselves. So don’t blame the Muslims for the deterioration of American values, blame teachers including yours in Texas, blame the democratic socialists, blame AOC, Mamdani and Chuck Schumer. Blame Randi Weingarten. Stop immigration? I am surprised that he didn’t say that we should deport the democrats.

Is the president fraying a bit around the edges?

Being president is extraordinarily difficult and takes a toll on its occupant – see how Bill Clinton and Barack Obama look. Trump sometimes just goes off the rails which is understandable given the stress of the job. Lately he has decided to revisit his tariffs while still insisting that the exporter pays the tariffs even though domestic prices are nonetheless rising. He has lashed out at one of his staunch supporters, Marjorie Taylor Greene because she is not 100 percent MAGA. Greene had been calling for the release of the Epstein files. The president said “I understand that wonderful, Conservative people are thinking about primarying Marjorie in her District of Georgia, that they too are fed up with her and her antics and, if the right person runs, they will have my Complete and Unyielding Support.” Trump called her a Republican in name only and said she was a disgrace to the party. He also said “I am withdrawing my support and Endorsement of “Congresswoman” Marjorie Taylor Greene, of the Great State of Georgia. All I see ‘Wacky’ Marjorie do is COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN!” Somehow I don’t think this president should call anyone “wacky”. 

For her part Greene said “I have supported President Trump with too much of my precious time, too much of my own money, and fought harder for him even when almost all other Republicans turned their back and denounced him. But I don’t worship or serve Donald Trump.” And I was one who always thought that MTG was a bit of a kook – see her exchange with Jasmine Crockett and other episodes – but here, I admire her courage as being one of the few republicans to actually have a backbone when it comes to the president.

Now that the president has changed his mind and says that the Epstein files can be released does this mean that he and MTG will once again be buds?

And speaking of letting the pressures get to him, the president is now blaming the Fed for the housing crisis. “Could somebody please inform Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell that he is hurting the housing industry, very badly? “People can’t get a mortgage because of him.” So it’s the Fed’s fault, is it? I guess the president is saying that because the Fed was slow to lower rates that mortgage rates are so high that people are not buying houses. Trump then called Powell a “maniac” (again I don’t think this president should be calling any one a maniac) and “The biggest hindrance for housing is mortgage rates. If the Fed brings down mortgage rates, then they can end this housing recession.” I wonder if Bessent is going to have to correct him again because he is wrong but feels the need to reflect the blame of the economy on the Fed (or on Biden).

Sorry Mr President, but the Fed affects short rates and not mortgage rates. Someone needs to tell him that while the Fed has decreased the Fed funds rates, mortgage rates have risen – not fallen as he would assert. Someone should show him this article from the economists at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta that tests the relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates entitle “Not joined at the hip.”

https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/economic-research/2025/11/10/not-joined-at-the-hip-relationship-between-the-fed-funds-rate-and-mortgage-rates

But it won’t matter, will it? Mortgage rates are up because long term Treasuries remain elevated. The 10 year Treasury is usually the benchmark rate with mortgage rates about 2 to 3 percent or so higher. Since long rates are influenced by inflationary expectations, Trump should look in the mirror and blame himself. His tariffs, the growing federal deficit, inflationary expectations are all a product of his policies which are keeping the long term rates high. So to get the 30 year mortgage rate below six percent, the 10 year Treasury should be around 3 ½ percent. So Mr President, go after the Treasury and not the Fed. Fat chance.

A few random thoughts

What do you mean we don’t grow cows?

Treasury secretary Bessent who has become the Trump translator has announced that soon the tariffs on things we do not produce like bananas, citrus and coffee (why do they keep ignoring Kona?) will be lifted. He also mentioned Argentine beef. I thought we produced cattle? What about Brazil? They produce 50 percent of our coffee and are subject to an outlandish 50 percent tariff. Some say that the president is addressing the issue of affordability. But if the export countries are paying the tariffs as he keeps insisting then there would be no need to lift the tariffs since they obviously (in the president’s mind) have no impact whatsoever on consumer prices.

Bye, bye CFPB (for now)

I guess someone in the administration has been reading my blogs and finally got the CFPB’s funding declared illegal. Elizabeth Warren’s child, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is not appropriated by the Congress but rather its funding comes solely out of the Federal Reserve. The administration tried to get the courts to rule that the funding arrangement was illegal but was rebuffed. However, the law says that the funding comes from the Fed’s profits Well the Fed has been running a deficit since 2022 so there has been no surplus earnings. Thus, when current funding expires at the end of the year, there will be no more funding of the CFPB until the Fed starts to run a profit. So if the CFPB is going to operate, it must be appropriated by the Congress. Fat chance with the republicans in control.

Housing affordability?

The notion of a 50 year mortgage won’t have any impact on home affordability. Another somewhat screwy idea is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dropping the 620 FICO score requirement. Supposedly this is to help first time home buyers. But isn’t this shades of what helped precipitate the mortgage crisis? Subprime lenders were vilified for not using FICO scores as an important factor in their underwriting decision. Are we going to go down that route again in the name of home affordability?

Speaking of which there are now over 900,000 homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, meaning that they owe more than the value of their homes. Again this sounds like the mortgage crisis of 2007 resulting in many homeowners walking away from their mortgages and increased foreclosures. And by the way, foreclosures in October increased 20 percent, giving more indication of stress in the housing market. Well this time if the market collapses they can’t blame it on subprime mortgages.

How did we forget about Seattle?

With all the attention on Mamdani’s win in New York and all the gnashing of teeth from the right, little attention was paid to another democratic socialist democrat being elected in Seattle. Speaking of Seattle, Cal Raleigh not Aaron Judge should have been American League MVP. Raleigh finished second. Yes Judge had a great year but Raleigh was the best player at baseball’s most demanding position. He had 60 home runs, 125 RBIs and won both a gold glove and a platinum glove. At least it should have been a tie.

Back to the new mayor of Seattle. She is Katie Wilson who founded a nonprofit that pays her $80,000 a year. She is a college dropout, gets an allowance from her parents, doesn’t own a car, rides a bicycle or public transportation and her husband doesn’t have a job. She says that she pays $2,000 a month rent and $2,000 a month childcare. What I want to know is why does she need childcare if her husband isn’t working. Wilson says she will Trump-proof the city, institute city-run grocery stores (sounds familiar?), tax the rich and free public transportation (no kidding). She says she is a democrat and that she is a socialist which I guess makes her a democratic socialist. Sounds like the perfect person to run a city with a $9 billion budget. Wilson beat the incumbent mayor and also every incumbent (democrat) on the ballot lost to socialists. While another well known socialist AOC was a bartender, Katie says “I worked a bunch of working-class jobs” with brief stints in a lab, a bakery, a law office and in construction. Wilson who rents says she wants to fix things for regular, working people through policies like renter protections against unnecessary fees and exorbitant rent increases. Yep sounds like the perfect mayor for Seattle the home of Amazon, Costco, Microsoft Starbucks, Expedia and Weyerhaeuser.

IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! and other thoughts

The sea is rising! The sea is rising!

It is somewhat fitting that the UN’s annual conference on the climate is in Brazil. The alarmists are probably warning of doom and gloom because the sea level in the Caribbean has just risen. But chill, its just the arrival of the aircraft carrier, Gerald R. Ford, and its carrier group. The Ford is the navy’s largest boat and with it comes two guided-missile destroyers the USS Bainbridge and the USS Mahan and the USS Winston S. Churchill, an air and missile defense command ship. We have a boat named after Winston Churchill? Who knew? I do remember the Simon Bolivar, a ballistic missile submarine.

New York’s rent controlled units are now going to be rent controlled?

I had previously asked if someone could explain New York’s rent controls to me. My granddaughter who lives in Brooklyn tried. Two million New Yorkers live in rent controlled units. Doesn’t this mean that rent controls already exist? So Mamdani is going to freeze the rent on units that are already rent controlled? Mamdani got elected because of issues of affordability including the cost of housing. Well there are at least 26,000 empty units in the city that are empty because they are rent controlled and they sit empty because the cost of fixing them up cannot be recouped due to their rents being frozen. Now there is a lawsuit brought by two landlords against the city that the rent controls constitute a constitutional taking since the limits on what they can charge forces them to take losses. The Wall Street Journal says “When rents are regulated so that a property can only be rented at a loss, the plaintiffs argue that it qualifies as a taking under the Fifth Amendment. Because New York’s rent restrictions mostly apply to buildings constructed before 1974, the rent stabilization is also arbitrary and violates equal protection and due process rights.” In Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council (1992), the Supreme Court held that if the government prevents all economically beneficial use of property, it is a taking. Does this mean that the Court could rule rent controls unconstitutional?.

A somewhat divided Fed

The next meeting of the Open Market Committee is December 9-10. At its last meeting the Fed funds rate was lowered 25 basis points. Governor Trump – er Miran – dissented wanting a 50 basis point cut while Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed voted to hold. Now it looks like although Chairman Powell had hinted earlier that there would be another 25 basis point drop, several members of the Open Market Committee seem to be set on joining Schmid for no change because of inflationary worries. The government shutdown had affected the flow of data to the Fed. Powell actually said something about making blind decisions – which was scoffed at by Governor Waller. But prices are still increasing while job growth is stagnant and even falling. So on the one hand, decrease rates because of rising unemployment. On the other hand, raise rates due to increases in inflation. On the other hand, do nothing. Sort of reminds me of Lucky Pererson’s Three Handed Woman (left handed, tight handed and underhanded too).

Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed (and a coauthor) just announced his retirement effective at the end of this term. Again, all the reserve bank presidents serve five year terms that renew in years ending in six and one. Mandatory retirement age is 65. Raphael is 59 and there is speculation as to why he is retiring now. There is also speculation as to whether Trump will try to influence the reappointment of the reserve bank presidents. The new presidents are nominated by their bank’s board of directors but must be approved by the Board of Governors. Some wonder if the President will attempt to influence the selection at the reserve bank level. Then others wonder if he will try to have his appointees on the Fed board influence whether or not a certain reserve bank president will be reappointed. Only the president knows.

The 50 year mortgage

The president keeps telling us how great the economy is. Remember his latest ransom note? “We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER.” Well then why is affordability becoming the issue in the coming elections? All the democrats who just won ran on affordability and if we were doing so great then that would not have been an issue. IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! So the president’s man Bill Pulte has put forth the idea of the 50 year mortgage to make housing more affordable. Yes it would lower the monthly mortgage payment but it would also increase tremendously the amount of interest paid on the loan (maybe a deduction). 

Go to any mortgage calculator and here is what you will find: On a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with house price of $400,000, 20% down, financing $320,000 for 30 years, the monthly payment is $1,914.45, total interest $309,201 and in 2044, most of the payment starts to go to principal. If this is a 50 year mortgage, the monthly payment is $1,670.77, total interest is $687,860 and most of the payment goes to principal twenty years later in 2064. So how about your basic million dollar payout on a $400,000 home? I am assuming no insurance and no property tax in the calculations. So does saving $244 a month make the 50 year mortgage more “affordable”. I seriously doubt it.

Anyway the law would have to be changed to allow such a loan and the rules changed to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy them. Since when the mortgage is getting paid down, initially most money goes to interest and little goes to principal, a 50 year mortgage would mean that equity would be built more slowly. In the housing crisis of 2007, many homeowners walked away from their mortgages because the amount they owed was greater than the equity in the house. This problem would be compounded with a 50 year mortgage. My feeling is that they should be allowed and let the consumer and the lender craft a mortgage instrument that is best for both parties. Anyway the mortgage is likely to be sold by the originator.

Nonetheless, many voted for Trump because of the Biden economy. Now the voters in Virginia, New Jersey and even Georgia where two democrats were elected to the Public Service Commission – the first time since 2006 that democrats had won those statewide positions – do not bode well for those reeling from the Trump economy. Those polled saying they are worse off equal the numbers of Biden’s. I think that Trump has blown a golden opportunity to put the economy on a solid growth path with his economic politics. Vivek Ramaswamy said “Our side needs to focus on affordability. Make the American dream affordable. Bring down costs—electric costs, grocery costs, health care costs and housing costs—and lay out how we’re going to do it.” I say do it by using the market not like Trump’s flirtation with socialism where he wants to fix prices, threaten businesses, take equity positions in corporations and all the rest. BTW, I am tired of the Trump people keep blaming Biden for all that ails us. Just like I got tired of blaming Trump for all of his administration’s woes.

Remember: IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID!

In the “what you can do I can do better” department, in the rash of all the noise seeking to link the president with Epstein by the democrats, the EMPIRE STRIKES BACK! The president is siccing his Department of “Justice” on the democrats. Here is his latest random note. “Now that the Democrats are using the Epstein Hoax, involving Democrats, not Republicans, to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN, and all of their other failures, I will be asking A.G. Pam Bondi, and the Department of Justice, together with our great patriots at the FBI, to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him.”

What was the saying about “Never argue with someone who buys ink by the barrel”? How about “Never mess with someone who can sic the DOJ, the FBI, the CIA, the IRS and Bill Pulte on you!”

Bye bye shutdown, Canadian growth, carbon emissions and Italian pasta

Eight democrats finally decided to vote to end the government shutdown. Curiously that was the exact number needed since Rand Paul voted no. Is this a coincidence? Those eight are getting heat from the left wing of the democrat party (is there any other wing?). The eight are Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Dick Durbin of Illinois and “independent” Maine Sen. Angus King. I was surprised that Mark Warner of Virginia voted no, given the large number of federal employees living in his state. Also I was surprised that Georgia’s two democrat senators voted no. Jon Ossoff is particularly vulnerable and his vote will be used against him in his attempt at being re-elected. Fetterman said that there were plenty more democrats who wanted to vote yes but were afraid.

But the sharp knives are out for Schumer which is odd since he voted no. Recall all the vitriol thrown his way by the left when he voted for the previous CR? Well now they are after him even though he voted no. Schumer said “Donald Trump has taken the American people hostage. I must vote no. This healthcare crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home that I cannot in good faith support this CR. We will keep fighting.” Yet there are all these calls for his head. Interesting that most are not from senators. Instead they are from representatives like Ro Khanna and governors like Pritzker and Newsom.

But I want someone to explain to me why the same democrats who were whining that the cruel heartless republicans were denying the poor their SNAP subsidies are now yelling at the eight democrats who voted to resume those payments. Elizbeth Warren said during the shutdown “Trump is using hungry children, veterans, and seniors as a political tool. It’s fundamentally wrong.” After the vote ending the shutdown she said “This deal is a mistake. While Trump and Republicans inflict pain on people, Democrats’ most important job is to fight back.” This adds confirmation to her brain having turned to mush.

Would you believe that the UN is holding its 30^th climate conference this year? It’s in Belem, Brazil which should prepare itself for the onslaught of private jets. Meanwhile, carbon emissions have continued to rise. It is hard to preach (and practice) carbon reduction in the face of economic growth. I am reminded of what one African president said when asked to address climate change. He said that no country developed using expensive energy.

Speaking of carbon emissions, it looks like Ford is going to discontinue making its EV pickup, the Ford Lightning F-150 all the while advertising a free charger if you buy one. Hey, its EV division has only lost $13 billion since 2023. Maybe Ford thought the good old boys would trade in their gas F-150s for the electric one. But few wanted to pay thousands more for essentially a vanity pickup. Speaking of vanity pickups, the bottom has fallen out of Tesla’s sales of its cybertruck. Sales are down 40 percent from last year. Over 10,000 remain unsold and Tesla has cut production and staff at its Texas factory. However, there are cybertruck lovers out there. I counted five during a drive the other day in Knoxville. So if you love one, buy it used. Cybertrucks depreciate an astounding 35% in its first year. But just remember, a cybertruck is more than a vanity pickup, it is a statement too and fewer and fewer are willing to make that statement.

Canada’s economy is tanking thanks to Trump’s tariffs. This is not surprising since we are the market for three fourths of its exports. Unemployment is rising. The manufacturing sector has lost 33,000 jobs. Stellantis says that it is moving the production of its Jeep Compass out of Ontario to Illinois due to the 25% tariffs on automobiles. Ontario is suing Stellantis to keep the production in Canada. The Canadian government has of course said that it will increase its spending and cut interest rates – a typical government response. But the losses have caused business investment to tank and is down 16 percent from lost year. Government actions are not going to bring back the lost demand. Canada is trying to pivot to other markets but its best bet is for Trump’s tariffs to be ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. Trump did say that the only way for them to avoid his tariffs would be to become the 51^st state. Please don’t.

Speaking of tariffs, Trump is going to raise the tariff on Italian pasta to an unbelievable 107%! And I thought he liked Meloni? Supposedly the Italians are “dumping” pasta on the market – selling them below market price to give them an unfair advantage over US pasta makers. The Italian pasta makers say that this is false and the prices charged in the US are above those charged in Italy. This is lunacy. You mean these 13 Italian makers threaten Barilla, Ronzoni , Rao and Mueller? All told, Italians exported 281,000 metric tons to the US in 2024 while US manufacturers produced 1.8 million metric tons. So Pasta Garofalo and La Molisana obviously pose a threat to national security.

I have given up trying to apply logic to Trump’s tariffs (DDE can do it for me) but I thinks Trump just likes picking on the little guy. I am reminded of a quote from the first truly great offensive tackle Bob (Boomer) Brown of the Eagles who said when asked why did he play football, he said “Boomer likes to hit people.”

Trump’s tariffs day in Court

The president just called me a fool. On that point at least one of my readers would agree. Why? Because I – like a few others – oppose his tariffs. Here is what he said: “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

I guess the president feels that it is obvious that his tariffs are making us “rich as hell.” There will be trillions flowing in so we will replace the income tax, pay off the debt and give everyone (except the rich folk) $2,000 so what’s not to love? BTW wasn’t $2,000 the figure that the democrats were using in the campaign for the impact of Trump’s then proposed tariffs on American households?

I am not going over old ground. Secretary Bessent has said that the tariffs would bring in $400 billion. But the debt is growing by $1.8 trillion and simple math – a problem for this president – tells us that the tariffs can do none of the things that he has promised. A rebate of $2,000 excluding high incomes would amount to $600 billion. Where is the money just to do the rebate? So Bessent is forced to become the president’s translator. Well, he said, the rebate (he calls it a dividend) could actually come in many forms. “You know, it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda — you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans.” In other words, not from tariffs. The president misspoke, only he is not aware that he did.

The government is having to tie itself in knots in its arguments before the Supreme Court. Since the Constitution gives the power to tax to the Congress and not to the president, the administration has had to argue that the tariffs are not a tax. Solicitor General John Sauer said that “They are not revenue-raising tariffs.” Excuse me? Then what are they? Sauer knows that only the Congress is given the power to raise revenues through tariffs and taxes. So what is he now calling the tariffs? The real impact of the tariffs is one of the largest tax increases in history ($3.9 trillion over the next decade). Sauer even said “The fact that they raise revenue is only incidental. The tariffs would be most effective, so to speak, if no person ever paid them.” Huh? But if no one paid them, how could they raise revenues? Mr Sauer is tying himself in knots.

The justices are not buying the administration’s argument. Justice Gorsuch said “The really key part of the context here…is [that] the constitutional assignment of the taxing power to Congress, the power to reach into the pockets of the American people, is just different and it’s been different since the founding.”

Of course the law does allow the president to impose tariffs as a means to regulate imports in case of a national emergency. Here is where the president erred by imposing a universal tariff on every country, island, archipelago and coral reef in the world. It is hard to argue that Lesotho is a threat to national security. On that point, Chief Justice Roberts said that the “power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time, it does seem like that’s a major authority. Trump’s “vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress.”

I would be shocked if the administration prevails. I would also be shocked if the decision were not unanimous.

Mamdani has won. Now can he govern?

Zohran Mamdani is now mayor of New York. A lot has been written about his lack of credentials. He has never had a real job. But somehow he was elected an assemblyman from Queens. He has made a lot of promises including a lot of free stuff without the wherewithal to pay for them. Albany has the purse strings and Governor Hochul says she won’t raise either the city’s corporate tax or income tax to pay for them. She even has nixed Mamdani’s promise of free buses saying that the fares are needed to pay for operation of the buses and their maintenance. Who knew?

So if Mamdani can’t get the money to pay for his promises, what can he do? He can appoint department heads. He has said that he will reappoint the head of police Jessica Tisch who has been widely praised. What happened to his pledge of defunding the police and sending social workers rather than cops to scenes of domestic abuse? Tisch has not yet said if she will stay. But there has been a steady exodus of cops leaving in the wake of Mamdani’s victory. More will leave if Tisch does not stay. Cities in Texas and Florida are running ads trying to attract disaffected New York cops. Many may take them up on it. It will be interesting to see why type of contract is negotiated between the policemen’s union and Mamdani when the current one expires.

As mayor Mamdani will head a city that employs over 300,000 people, has a budget of $115 billion and has the power to implement certain social and economic policies given the blessing of a 51 person city council. So the question is whether within that $120 billion can he hollow out $6 billion for free child care, $3 billion for free buses and all the rest. He won’t have enough money to build the “affordable” housing units promised. He doesn’t have the authority to raise the city’s minimum wage to $30 an hour. What about his city run grocery stores that will cost “only” $140 million? Also New York has rent-controlled units housing 2 million people. Mamdani wants the rent frozen on these rent-controlled units. I need someone to explain this to me but it seems that Mamdani might have the power to do this. No need to repeat the disastrous consequences of rent controls because this, like minimum wages, will never die.

Although it looks like Mamdani will have $115 billion to fool around with, $7.4 billion of that comes from the Federal government and Trump has vowed not to send the city any money unless he is legally obligated to do so. Cutting off those monies would mean that Mamdani would not be able to maintain expenditures at their current levels, much less fund his ambitious promises. Currently a quarter of the budget goes for education then comes human services, public safety and the judicial system, city employee pension funds, and debt service payments. If Mamdani tries to reallocate these funds he will find strong opposition from those whose funding will be decreased. This is a challenge for a veteran manager much less one with no managerial experience. I am reminded of Napoleon’s saying “If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything deliver nothing.” The question is how long will Mamdani’s raucous base remain supportive when he fails to deliver his promises.

Speaking of support base, the core of his support was from college educated white women who gave him an astounding 84 percent of their votes. Young women were wearing t-shirts that said “Hot girls for Zohran.” Perhaps part of the appeal was a young charismatic candidate running against the worn out discredited old guard. It would have been interesting if there had been a young republican in the mold of Charlie Kirk running rather than Chris Sliwa. That Mamdani had this type of support is in large part due to the failures of out “education” system that praises socialism at every grade and trashes capitalism. The two teachers’ unions are headed by socialists too. With this type of brainwashing it is a miracle that any young person is a conservative. So a system that has failed everywhere it has been tried is slated to try and fail again only to rise like Phoenix from the ashes to be tried again and again.

But hey, capitalism is heartless, cold and cruel rife with creative destruction. Socialism is all about empathy, warm and fuzziness. It wants to serve the poor, lessen inequality and appeals to the feminine desire for compassion. A campaign running on the lack of affordability in the city and promising happiness and fulfillment undoubtedly resonated with frustrated young women raised on socialism and the politics of envy. Now let’s see how long this honeymoon lasts.

Prior to my retirement I had an active consulting practice dealing primarily with actions brought against banks by the government or by class action tort attorneys. In one of the cases, the lead attorney told me that in his classes at Harvard law, his favorite instructor was Elizabeth Warren. For those who do not know, many say that Warren got her appointment to the Harvard law faculty by deception. She claimed to be a native American (which is why Trump calls her “Pocahontas”). I know from experience that Harvard’s hiring reflects what I call “degree snobs.” Harvard’s faculty is composed of faculty with degrees from only “elite” universities. However, none of Warren’s degrees are from “elite” institutions. Her undergraduate degree is from the University of Houston and her JD is from Rutgers. I bet she was the only faulty member with degrees from such common-folk universities.

Some allege that she was a DEI hire (hence claiming to be native American) but she came to Harvard only after a distinguished academic career with appointments at Rutgers, Houston, Texas where she was a tenured full professor. She then was a chaired professor at Penn before going to Harvard as Leo Gottlieb professor of law. At Harvard she specialized in bankruptcy and commercial law and was one of the three most citied scholars in those fields. In the senate she has concentrated on trying to reform banking, antitrust issues and consumer protection.

This was the person known to that attorney that I was working with on a class action case. He said that the senator Elizabeth Warren was totally different from the professor Elizabeth Warren. The senator Elizabeth Warren has almost reached “kook” status in the senate. In an earlier post, I mentioned her letter (with Klobuchar) that was derided by Treasury secretary Bessent. Then she accused Donald Trump of being responsible for the YouTubeTv Disney kerfuffle. She said “You might not be able to watch Monday Night Football tonight. Why? When companies get too big, they have the power to cut off your favorite channels. That’s what’s happening here. And what’s Trump done about it? He’s let them get away with it.” Was she saying that Trump was responsible for the blackout?

I guess since Trump has poked his nose into a bunch of other non-presidential affairs like Taylor Swift, Sydney Sweeney, reopening Alcatraz and his penchant for making outlandish remarks, Warren thinks that he should be making comments about the loss of ESPN to YouTubeTV viewers too and doing something about it. But what does Warren want Trump to do? Wouldn’t interfering in this dispute be contrary to her claim that Trump wants to be a king?

But what is interesting is that Warren who seemingly has taken Disney’s side in the dispute is being inconsistent. In September, Warren in a letter (she sure likes writing letters) with Bernie Sanders and Texas’ Joaquin Castro sent to Disney question its proposed media deals between ESPN and the NFL and major league baseball. The letter raised antitrust concerns that would harm consumers and competitors. Here, in part is what it says

The agreements between ESPN, the NFL, and Major League Baseball (MLB) that have recently become public raise serious concerns and could entrench ESPN’s dominance over competitors in sports distribution,” the letter reads. “As prices rise across the board, including for cable and satellite TV and streaming services, sports fans should not be forced to pay more or jump through more hoops to watch their favorite team.

“We are concerned that these new deals could hurt consumers by disadvantaging competitors, limiting choices, raising prices for viewers, and creating potential conflicts of interest.”

So here, Warren is questioning Disney and saying that the arrangement would cause streaming services like YouTubeTV to pay more. Yet she then one month later seems to be critical of YouTubeTV of having to pay more if Disney raises the price of carrying ESPN. Apparently, being in politics has caused what was one a top legal mind to turn to mush. And this is just the latest example of nonsense coming from Senator Warren. Bessent called her a “failure” and the senate’s “resident American Peronist.” Maybe he was given to understatement.

But one thing is clear, Warren hates Trump. The most recent evidence is over Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder. Warren asserted that Zhao who had pleaded guilty to a money laundering charge had financed Trump’s stablecoin project and lobbied for a pardon and got it. She then added “If Congress does not stop this kind of corruption. It owns it.” Where is the brilliant legal mind that was on the Penn and Harvard faculties?Senator Warren is a caricature of the professor Warren. That legal mind has turned into mush but such is the transformative power of spending too many years in the legislature surrounded by the folk who only want more power than seek optimal solutions to the problems that many of them have created