Author: haroldblackphd

The Straits of Hormuz. BLS reporting.

The shutting down of the Straits of Hormuz

Question: If our diesel comes from the Gulf of Mexico, then why did the price per gallon jump by a $1 over the past two days?

Iran firing all those missiles and drones at all their neighbors is creating a lot of anger levied at both Iran and the US. One report said that the Saudis were starting to use their own air force to bomb Iranian targets.

Iran shut down the Straits of Hormuz when four of its drones hit oil tankers traveling through the straits. Brig Gen Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior adviser to Iran’s revolution guards, said “We will attack and set ablaze any ship attempting to cross.” Maritime insurers promptly started canceling insurance. Twenty million barrels travel through the straits every day. Iran is threatening to fire missiles at any ship going through the straits. Larger quantities of food also go through the straits. Insurance companies are starting to drop insurance from the tankers operating in the Gulf. Trump has said that he will have the military force safe passage through the straits. But can he really? Currently the straits are effectively shut down with hundreds of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. Iran has missiles to dissuade shipping and also can mine the straits if need be. Oil prices are now above $100 a barrel and analysts are saying the global economy is in danger of going into a recession. Of particular interest is that almost 50% of China’s oil goes through the strait. So what will China do?

I find it a bit interesting that the Saudis would shut down their Saudi Ras Tanura oil refinery, the country’s largest just because two drones were intercepted over the site. Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production due to a couple of drones. Isn’t that an overabundance of caution?

Trump says he as a work-around bringing more supplies online. Venezuela anyone? But when? And how is that going to get those 700 ships in the Persian Gulf to their ports? What is Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain previous supreme leader, going to do? I would think that the younger Khamenei would be wise to zoom his meetings.

Somewhat overlook but almost of equal importance is the fertilizer that goes through the straits. Did you know that the Persian Gulf is a primary source of the world’s fertilizers? Fertilizer is produced in the region and shipped around the world. It will have an impact on food production in the Ukraine – Europe’s breadbasket. everywhere. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain supply more than a third of the world’s urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly a quarter of ammonia. And they all use the Strait of Hormuz to export their products. Prices for fertilizer have increased almost 35 percent. Food, like oil, will get more expensive. If this war goes on for much longer we will surely see inflationary recession, which Iran is counting on. Who blinks first?

Jobs. What jobs?

The latest job report revision came out and the stock market fell 900 points indicating that a lot of misinformed dumb people are in the market. The press said that markets fell because of the dismal jobs report and economists were predicting modest job gains. Well those economists give the profession a bad name – if that is possible. We should know by now that the initial jobs reports are nowhere close to reality. Recall when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for not reporting favorable job numbers claiming that she was a democrat and wanted to make him look bad? Well how does he look now? His Commerce secretary Lutnick also promptly fired the members of the two advisory boards at the Bureau because I guess they were made up of too many democrats. Well, when the Bureau releases its job data, they are from a survey of businesses and are then revised. Invariably the revision is downward. The markets should be used to this so when the market reacts to a release, it is admitting that it was duped. 

Consider that last year the jobs report said that 147,000 jobs were added in June. The White House issued glowing press releases and Trump was running around doing high fives. Karoline Leavitt was crowing about the Trump economy. The market went up. Well in August the numbers were revised to show a growth of only 14,000 jobs. So maybe the larger number was a misprint? Then the final revision was made last month and lo and behold, instead of a gain of 147,000 jobs, the reality was that there was a job loss of 20,000 jobs! How could this be? Shouldn’t Trump fire these guys too? The sobering number is that over the past two years job “growth” has been overstated by one million jobs.

The January report showed a gain of 126,000 jobs. Again the White House was jubilant. But virtually all the jogs were in healthcare or state and local governments. One wonders what the actual numbers are after they get revised? The February jobs report says that the US lost 92,000 jobs. The market was expecting a gain – again showing the fallibility of those in the markets. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of experts expected 50,000 more jobs. Maybe the Wall Street Journal should find some other “experts.” Mind you, if the initial survey shows a 92,000 job loss then what will the revisions show? These numbers will cause Trump to put even more pressure on the Fed to lower its Fed funds target rate at its March 17-18 meeting. However, the Fed expected to hold due to the inflation numbers going up. Trump’s guy at the Fed, Stepen Miran is back at his old job at the National Economic Council and Kevin Warsh has yet to have had hearings. I don’t think there will be a single vote on the Open Market Committee to lower short term rates especially because of the pressure on prices that will soon be reflected due to the jump in gas prices. The bottom line is that no one should give credence to the preliminary survey numbers reported by the BLS. The fact that some people do never ceases to amaze me.

Noem out. Is Bondi next?

Kristi Noem is out at Homeland Security. Seems that the republicans were more upset over her spending $200 million on self-promotions than they were with her bungling of the ICE operations in Minneapolis. Trump has moved her to something he just seemed to have just made up – the Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, Trump’s new so-called security initiative in the Western Hemisphere. Even before it begins the initiative is being mocked. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., said “Let me congratulate the former Homeland Security secretary on her appointment to be the Shield of the Americas, which I’m pretty sure the president came up with when he watched the last Avengers movie.” Ted Lieu (D-CA) said “Thank you to Trump for promoting Kristi Noem to Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas, a position that Trump literally created a few hours ago. Pleas also promote Pam Bondi to be Special Attorney General to the Shield of the Americas.” I guess this goes with the so-called Board of Peace. The Shield of the Americas is to target drug trafficking, the cartels and illegal immigration. 

Now that Noem is out, the democrats will set their sights on ousting Pam Bondi and Stephen Miller next. They may get some help with republicans on Bondi who has been sharply criticized for her bungling handling of the Epstein files. That seems to have upset republicans more than her mismanagement of the “Justice” Department. 

As to Stephen Miller, the democrats will get no republican support to oust perhaps the most odious of all presidential advisors. Miller is the key architect of Trump’s deportation policies and was a vocal advocate of using military force to acquire Greenland. Even Trump said of Miller that he (Miller) wouldn’t stop until everyone looked like him – white and bald? Miller has been called every name in the book by those on the left – and some on the right. Racist, bigot, callous, sinister, malevolent, cruel, heartless, venomous, toxic, dangerous, depraved, fascist, brutal and unbalanced are only a few. Yes, perhaps to all of these. 

But there is literally no republican support to remove him. In fact, republicans are more likely to defend his actions. Lindsey Graham says “People can disagree with Stephen on rhetoric and they can disagree with him on policy but the question is, ‘Is Miller in jeopardy in Trump World?’ Absolutely not. It doesn’t matter what a senator thinks about a president’s adviser, as long as the president has confidence in that adviser.” More than a dozen Republican senators have praised Miller and pushed back against those who want to diminish Miller’s clout at the White House including Tennessee’s Bill Hagerty who says “Stephen has effectively pushed for policies that are making America safer, like in Memphis in my home state of Tennessee, more prosperous, and more respected around the world”.

One of the few vocal republicans critics of Miller is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis who of course is not seeking reelection. Tillis is also a critic of Trump seeking to indict Fed chairman Powell on charges of lying to congress. On Miller’s remark about Greenland, Tillis said “Look either Stephen Miller needs to get into a lane where he knows what he’s talking about or get out of this job.” On the senate floor Tillis said “I’m sick of stupid. I want good advice for this president, because I want this president to have a good legacy. And this nonsense on what’s going on with Greenland is a distraction from the good work he’s doing, and the amateurs who said it was a good idea should lose their jobs.” Tillis even called Miller a “sycophant.” Saying “A sycophant is more than just a ‘yes-man.’ It refers to someone who acts excessively servile toward someone important in order to gain an advantage.”

The senator compared Miller to Tolkien’s Grima Wormtongue from “The Lord of the Rings,” who is an adviser to a king. “He uses whispers and false flattery to control the King’s decisions, all while secretly serving Saruman,” the North Carolina Republican continued in his post. “He is a classic example of a sycophant who uses his position to poison a leader’s standing for his own benefit.” Actually, by invoking Wormtongue, the wicked counsellor who whispers evil counsel direct into the king’s ear, Tillis is actually complimenting Miller.

I am sure that Tillis knows that in this and most administrations, being a sycophant is more the rule than the exception. But Miller is by no means a unique feature in the political arena. He is probably no more of a Svengali as say James Carville, who was the evil persona of the Clintons or Lee Atwater to Reagan.  Aristotle said that ‘tyrants are always fond of bad men, because they love to be flattered’, establishing a connection between misrule and bad counsel. The same is true for non-tyrants as well. But the evil counselor serves as a useful foil to the political leader as foes can concentrate on the advisor as a proxy for attacking the leader. And when that advisor’s use life has expired, they can be jettisoned rather than the leader removed (see Kristi Noem). That time has not yet arrived for Stephen Miller.

Fewer federal workers yet more debt

It was to be expected that in his second term, the president’s cabinet would be engaged in producing chaos – but disarray? That they have done at every level. The cozy job security of federal employment has disappeared. Those deemed disloyal have been fired and the mission of virtually each agency has been rewritten. Department of Labor (DOL) data show that, by the end of 2025, federal civilian employment had fallen to the smallest share of the employed workforce on record in data going back to the 1930s. The Department of Education has been gutted with much of the funds routed to the states. I am totally in favor of this. The “Education” department has never been about education. Likewise, the “Energy” Department has never been about making the country energy self-sufficient. The Department of Justice has literally been gutted with around 80 percent of the department’s personnel being laid off or reassigned. The Commerce Department fired the members of its advisory boards and replaced the statisticians who report labor, employment and inflation data with people who generate results more favorable to the administration. The Department of Agriculture (USDA) experienced a larger decline in staffing in a matter of months than in any year since at least the 1970s. The President’s budget proposed cutting National Park Service (NPS) funding by 37 percent in 2026 and cutting National Science Foundation (NSF) funding by 57 percent. FEMA staffing was cut by 14 percent. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which hosts the National Weather Service, suffered a 19 percent cut in staffing. Farm Service Agency staffing was cut by almost 22 percent. The National Park Service, which had a workforce roughly 12 percent smaller in September 2025 than a year earlier. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was dismantled.

The Administration appears to have already exceeded its public goals in some agencies, such as Defense (data are for civilian workforce only), Health and Human Services, Justice, State, Treasury, Veterans Affairs (VA), and EPA. In other agencies, such as Agriculture, Education, HUD, Labor, and SSA, it appears to have gone most of the way to achieving the proposed reductions. And agencies like Commerce and Transportation saw significant losses even though the President’s proposed budget called for no staffing reductions. All total, there are now over 400,000 fewer federal workers now than when Trump took office. Do you miss them? The mere fact that we generally do not miss them is a testimony to how bloated the Federal government was – and still is.

You would think that with the diminution in the federal workforce and with republicans in the majority in the House and the Senate, there would a push to lower the deficit. But during Trump’s first year back in the White House the administration added $2.25 trillion to the deficit. Remember DOGE? It was disruptive but what good did it do? Elon Musk showed he cared more about the political limelight than he did for new car sales and his efforts turned out to be more for show than for substance. As of Jan 1, the national debt was $38.4 trillion. Do I hear $40 trillion by next January 1?

The president used to make clucking noises about lowering the deficit. Remember when he promised to eliminate the federal debt in 8 years? No more. He is proposing to increase the defense budget by $500 million. This was even before the war on Iran. Yet I bet that he gets very little of that. The few budget hawks left will demand offsets on the discretionary side but won’t get it because the democrats will once roll out the tired “You are balancing the budget on the backs of the poor!” Anyway few republicans have the stomach to cut the budget either. Consider where the administration’s proposals for fiscal 2026 ended up.  The administration asked for a 54% for the EPA and got 4%. It asked for a 41% reduction for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and got 1%. It asked for a 28% cut from Health and Human Services and got almost nothing. There’s no reason to think anything different will happen this time. Of course, since congress loves to spend more for “emergencies” maybe there will be more defense spending authorized on an “emergency” basis.

CBO (one of my old agencies) says that if we keep going down this path the deficit will be $56 trillion by 2036 or 120 percent of GDP. Since that is only 10 years away odds are that I may still be alive. Do you want to bet that CBO is wrong? I wouldn’t. Right now we are paying $1 trillion a year in interest on the current debt. It will be double that in 2036 and will amount to two thirds of federal borrowing. This is not sustainable. 

The president had been making noise about the Fed lowering the cost of borrowing by artificially lowering the Fed funds target rate. But since the bulk of Treasury borrowing is in the 10 year notes and not the 30 day bills, he needs to look elsewhere for lower rates. He should look in the mirror because his policies lead to higher long term rates as I have detailed many times in the past. The increase in the debt will also lead to increase in borrowing costs as inflationary expectations rise, the value of the dollar falls and bond holders demand higher rates given the higher risks.

Wouldn’t it be nice if the administration got serious about control of spending and paying down the debt? Wouldn’t it be nice if the president were to go on the air and tell the American public what is the plan to do this. Wouldn’t it be nice if he sat down with the members of both parties to lay out his vision and dare them to oppose it? I have long advocated how to do this. I have said that if we limit the growth in the budget to that of long term GDP to no more than 2.2 percent per year, that would be a start. Also since taxes stay around 20 percent of GDP no matter how the code is manipulated, I have proposed that the best plan for fiscal stability is have spending set at 18 percent of the previous year’s GDP. That would mean that the president would have to propose a budget within these limits and the congress would have to adhere to these limits. It will take some adjustment because as of now spending on the nondiscretionary side is almost equal to tax collections, meaning that everything else in the budget has to be paid for by borrowing. 

But apparently there is no plan – at least not an obvious one. The president did not even mention the national debt in his state of the union address. His economic message was “I don’t know why you feel so bad because things are better than they ever have been – and anyway it’s all Biden’s fault.” This is not encouraging. The debt is becoming unsustainable and in the famous words of Rev Jeremiah Wright, “These chickens will come home to roost.”

Trump’s war

How many rockets does Iran have? Reports are that the Iranians have only 2,500 ballistic missiles. I say “only” because if you believe all of the panicky news reports, it sounds like they have 25,000.  The US and Israel are targeting the missile launch sites, which is smart. But I thought that we were told that the launch sites were destroyed in the June attack? Of course those were hardened sites when I guess there must be mobile launchers capable of launching a ballistic missile. Given the reported destruction of the June attack (which now seems overstated) and all the missiles currently being fired, the Iranians must be very good at missile production.

The ballistic missiles have a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) which is considerable. The Iranians seem to be trying to sow panic within that range with a missile here and a missile there type of strategy. Most are actually drones. There was one fired at Cyprus, one shot toward Turkey, two at Azerbaijan, others at Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq. But for all the shouting there have been relatively little damage and only a few deaths – even in Israel – from the attacks.

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense said that out of 941 Iranian drones detected since the start of the war, 65 fell within its territory, damaging ports, airports, hotels and data centers. Again this sounds like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight which points to psychological warfare being conducted by the Iranians.

Then there are cruise missiles and of course the famous Iranian attack drones. The cruise missiles and even the drones (surprisingly to me) have a range similar to that of the ballistic missiles. I presume that the Iranians launch all three at targets they deemed of value to complicate interdiction. Iran may have 1,000 cruise missiles and up to 80,000 drones while producing another 400  drones per day. These seem to be more a problem than the traditional missiles.

Interdiction prompts some questions if  Iran is waging a mass drone campaign unleashing waves of low-cost ($50,000), one-way attack drones against Western-linked targets to impose an exponential cost on the U.S. This forces the targets to utilize expensive interceptors on low‑cost drones while creating a psychological burden on military and civilian populations. Air defense systems used by Gulf states and Israel can cost between $3 million and $12 million per interdiction according to U.S. Department of Defense. This cost discrepancy raises a serious issue for Iran’s enemies: Air defense systems have finite numbers of defense missiles, with each target intercepted representing a valuable asset expended. But of course two can play this game as for the first time the US has made extensive use of its own drones in attacking Iran.

So apparently, the Iranian strategy is that their enemies will run out of interceptors before the Iranians either run out of drones or before Iranian facilities are completely neutralized.

One friend of mine who knows these things said that the Iranians likely fired off all their outdated missiles at Israel first to deplete the Israeli defenses and then would attack with more sophisticated weapons.

We are using s ophisticated and expensive sophisticated THAAD and Patriot Systems air defenses to counter the low cost drone attacks. In Ukraine, the slow moving drones have been shot down by machine gun fire and Zelenskyy has offered to help show us how it’s done. The US Navy has also deployed a dozen Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers to the Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean. These are air defense destroyers which can shoot down drones and ballistic missiles. They have already proven effective in the Red Sea against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Between 2024 and 2026, the US intercepted nearly 400 Houthi drones and missiles. And of course jet fighters can shoot them down as well.

Trump says that Iran will not be another Iraq squandering US lives and treasure. Yet he says there may be a need for boots on the ground. My friend (and military experts agree) that Iran’s complex geopolitical environment, rugged geography and demographic density make an invasion impractical. The old way of fighting wars with tanks and massed infantry will not succeed in Iran – like it didn’t in Afghanistan. Remember the old saying about generals are prepared to fight yesterday’s war? There is little evidence that the US is prepared to fight modern wars. I predict that if that if Trump uses ground troops, the republicans may lose 70+ seats in the midterms and also lose the senate. Americans have no stomach for another ground war in the Middle East. So in a way, this may be a war of attrition. Which sides runs out of missiles and air defenses first.

Maybe Trump thought that the Iranian military capability was so degraded that this current attack would end quickly especially after the killing of Khamanei and other Iranian leaders. He said “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared, as U.S. and Israeli warplanes pounded Iranian cities and the compound of the country’s supreme leader. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”

He appears to be mistaken. First, there is no way that the Iranians were not prepared for the attack and dispersed their armaments throughout the country. Their strategy has been called “centralized planning and decentralized execution.” Second, he also seems to have hopes that the Iranian people will overthrow a weakened government. He made be mistaken in that regard as well. I bet he was surprised at all the masses of people who demonstrated grief over the killing of Khamanei. Yes there were celebrations in Iran but mourning as well. As my knowledgeable friend has said, the resistance lies primarily among the young in the urban areas. However, rural Iran is conservative, strict Muslims and supportive of the mullahs. Sound familiar?

Hey Mahmood, let’s try Zoom next time

It is almost inconceivable that Iranian leadership would physically meet again given the attack that killed Khamanei and members of his leadership team. I wondered if they had ever heard of Zoom and that they had to be the dumbest people on the planet. It is evident that the Israelis have compromised Iran’s leadership. Well it happened again. Iran’s Assembly of Experts actually physically gathered in Qom Tuesday to select a new supreme leader. Israeli warplanes struck the Assembly killing and wounding many of those present. One report said that “Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader.” The strike underscored the depth of Israeli intelligence penetration inside Tehran. No fooling.

Trump loses another one

The president testing the limits of the executive, just found out that he cannot shut down law firms he doesn’t like. Recall I had earlier reported that the president was issuing executive orders ending all government business with law firms that had argued against actions taken by the administration. Those orders would also have the government not do business with any company that engaged those same law firms – sounds like the “supply chain risk” designation for Claude AI. Well lo and behold, the “Justice” Department lawyers told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia that they were no longer interested in pursuing the cases and were asking the court to dismiss them. When the president issued the threat nine firms capitulated and reached deals with the administration. Four firms did not and sued instead and received favorable rulings from district court judges.

When the president issued the orders it was first against the firm defending Jack Smith and the second was against a firm involved in the Russia hoax. I was appalled saying that the right to counsel was guaranteed by the Constitution and Trump was trying to silence the opposition. Although I am not a lawyer, it was not surprising that a district judge agreed. She said “The executive order sends little chills down my spine,” and the administration had sent a clear message, “Lawyers must stick to the party line, or else.” The orders, she wrote, were “an unprecedented attack” on foundational constitutional principles.

Netflix bows out, CNN freaks out

Netflix just told Paramount that it can buy Warner Bros. Discovery. One very interesting sidebar is the question “Will this affect CNN?” CNN is part of Warner Bros. Discovery. It also owns CBS. When Paramount bought CBS last year, it instituted all sorts of changes in leadership and in staffing. Paramount is headed by David Ellison, Larry Ellison’s son, and an ally of Donald Trump. The new head of CBS leadership is Bari Weiss a long-standing critic of progressive politics. Weiss’s first decisions made headline news. She pulled a report harshly critical of Trump’s anti-immigrant crackdown hours before it was scheduled to broadcast on 60 Minutes. It was later aired with a revised introduction. As a result there was an exodus of personnel from 60 Minutes. CBS is in turmoil with journalists resigning and interviews being blocked. And insiders say that its being done to aid Trump. Well don’t you think its about time? Many at CBS say that there is now a “climate of fear” at the network. Anna M Gomez, a democrat commissioner at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said “This is yet another troubling example of corporate capitulation in the face of this Administration’s broader campaign to censor and control speech.”

So this question is now “Is CNN next?” Yes the old “Clinton News Network” is said to be in panic mode and “freaking out.” Like what happened at CBS, will the same happen at CNN? Will it modify its far left, anti-Trump posture and move more toward the center? Stay tuned.

Are Trump’s new illegal tariffs illegal too?

After his loss in court, the president invoked a universal 15 percent tariff for 150 days under Section 122 which allows the tariffs under “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits.” Oops, there is no such thing as a “balance of payments deficit.” The balance of payments is always in balance because of double entry accounting. There can be deficits and surpluses in the components of the balance of payments. Hence the balance of trade (between goods and services) can be in deficit but not the balance of payments. Section 122 was written when there were fixed exchange rates (gold standard) and has not been relevant since the US went to flexible exchange rates after Bretton Woods in 1973.

When the US dollar was pegged to gold and foreign currencies were pegged to the dollar, surpluses and deficits can occur because currency prices are fixed and not determined by the market. So when there is a deviation in the price set by the market from the price set by governments, there can be imbalance in the balance of payments deficit. So for instance, if the mispricing caused countries to convert dollars into gold it could seriously drain US gold reserves creating a deficit in the balance of payments. But again that can no longer happen under a regime of flexible exchange rates. So if there cannot be a deficit in the balance of payments then Trump’s actions under Section 122 are also illegal.

Hegseth vs Claude. State of the Union

Pete Hegseth, probably taking his boss’ lead decided to bully Anthropic to drop their barriers on the use of its AI, Claude. Do you use AI? I actually use Claude after trying Chat and Grok among others. BTW, what’s up with Siri? It is dumb by comparison. Apple should be ashamed. Anthropic and the Defense Department had a small dustup over its use by the military. Hegseth, with the president’s concurrence, wanted Anthropic to remove its restrictions on domestic mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons systems from Claude. Hegseth demanded that Anthropic equip the Pentagon with an AI model “free from usage policy constraints that may limit lawful military applications.” If not then he would label Claude a “supply chain risk,” a designation for foreign adversaries, meaning that anyone wanting to do business with the US military could not do business with Anthropic. (Maybe he thought Claude was French). 

Hegseth said that he might even nationalize it. Anthropic refused. Trump, as is his wont, went ballistic saying “We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” The United States of America will never allow a radical left, woke company to dictate how our great military fights and wins wars! The Leftwing nut jobs at Anthropic have made a DISASTROUS MISTAKE trying to STRONG-ARM the Department of War, and force them to obey their Terms of Service instead of our Constitution. Their selfishness is putting AMERICAN LIVES at risk, our Troops in danger, and our National Security in JEOPARDY. Therefore, I am directing EVERY Federal Agency in the United States Government to IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic’s technology.” Good grief.

Actually, federal agencies were given six months to eliminate doing business with Anthropic. Ironically, the military’s action in Iran relied on Claude for intelligence assessments, target identification and simulation of battle scenarios.

The company said that “designating Anthropic as a supply chain risk would be an unprecedented action – one historically reserved for US adversaries, never before publicly applied to an American company.” Anthropic also said the “designation would both be legally unsound and set a dangerous precedent for any American company that negotiates with the government.” The company had voiced its constitutional, ethical, and technical concerns about unleashing AI capable of surveilling American citizens at home and executing people abroad according to its own judgment instead of a human being’s.  Surely they aren’t implying that the federal government would ever spy on its own citizens, would it? I presume that the company will sue the Defense Department. Certainly the designation will have an adverse impact on Anthropic business. Some say it would be a death blow. Amazon, Google and other partners would have to cease doing business with the company currently with a market valuation of $380 billion.

Incidentally, after banishing Claude, the Defense Department entered into a contract with OpenAI on the same terms as the one Antrhopic had insisted on making one wonder if all the dustup was just a personality issue between Hegseth and Anthropic.

State of the Union

Did you watch the State of the Union address? I didn’t. Nielsen says that 32.6 million people watched which is down from the 36 million last year. Since there are 36 million registered republicans, this means that it is likely that few democrats or independents watch the speech. But only a paltry 3.1 million watched the democrat response. Does this mean that we are getting more apathetic to politics? Trump’s 2017 speech had nearly 48 million viewers. President Bill Clinton had 67 million viewers in 1993.

The after speech media coverage was pitiful. Those on the right exhorted that the president had knocked it out of the ballpark and had exposed the democrats for what they were. One would have thought that the polls would have shown a mass migration of voters to the MAGA side. They didn’t. On the other hand, the left wing media fact checked the speech and called it overlong and partisan. One would conclude that meant a mass migration of voters to the democrat side. That didn’t happen either.

Neither happened. I could have predicted that only hardcore MAGAs would tune in and everyone else would tune out. It was a missed opportunity for the president to lay out his vision of economic recovery, immigration status and vision going forward, Instead, it was a political speech with Trump preaching to the choir. The democrats and independents either tuned him out or didn’t tune in at all. As pollster Scott Rasmussen said “In terms of its impact on public opinion and the midterm elections. I can say with a high degree of confidence, there won’t be any.”

By the way, Trump continued the tradition started by Ronald Reagan in having people in the gallery to be recognized. He had the men’s hockey team. The women were invited but said they had a conflict. I would have had every American medal winner there as well.

Trump’s interesting surgeon general nominee

Did you know that the president’s nominee for surgeon general Casey Means is not a licensed medical doctor? Means does have a medical degree from Stanford and is described as a “holistic doctor and entrepreneurial wellness influencer”. Is that the modern equivalence of a medicine man? Could be because Means has consulted with spiritual mediums and participated in a full moon ceremony. At her confirmation hearing she focused her testimony on the rise of chronic disease and the need for “restoring wholeness for Americans – physically, mentally, and societally.” Well if not a medicine man then a faith healer? She said “Our nation is angry, exhausted and hurting. If we’re addressing shared root causes, we’re going to be able to stop the whack-a-mole medicine that’s not working for us.” Where have we heard “root causes” before?

Originally Trump’s nominee was Fox contributor Dr Janette Nesheiwat whose nomination was withdrawn over questions about her certification and schooling. Nesheiwat’s public profile on Linkedin listed an M.D. degree from the University of Arkansas, when she actually received her medical degree from American University of the Caribbean in St. Maarten. That Laura Loomer person who is said to influence Trump also opposed Nesheiwat not because of her degree but due to her support for the Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic.

The MAHA folk wanted Means instead of Nesheiwat in the first place and got the president to nominate her. But Means is controversial – no kidding. Besides not having a medical license she has operated outside the bounds of traditional medicine having delved into psychedelics. Like RFK, jr she endorses raw milk – after meeting the cow. “I want to be free to form a relationship with a local farmer, understand his integrity, look him in the eyes, pet his cow, and then decide if I feel safe to drink the milk from his farm.” Oh boy. She also says that conditions from dementia to erectile dysfunction can be reversed with the help of quizzes and recipes.

Means is a bud of Kennedy’s and has served him as an advisor. She is 100 percent MAHA and is completely on board with his criticism of the use of the Hepatitis B vaccine for newborns and the blanket use of the vaccine for babies. Means has even said that the use of Hep B on babies is a crime. She even repeated almost verbatim what Kennedy has said regarding babies and vaccines “I think there’s a nuanced conversation that American families are looking to have about shared clinical decision making with their doctors about specific vaccines that their children may not be as seriously at risk for.” 

So what does the surgeon general do and is it important? The U.S. surgeon general is the nation’s leading spokesperson on public health matters and oversees the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps (PHSCC), which has more than 6,000 health professionals dedicated to protecting and promoting the nation’s health. Jerome Adams, who was surgeon general in the first Trump administration, and who opposes Means’ confirmation wrote the following.

“Throughout history, the surgeon general has been a beacon of scientific integrity and public health advocacy. In 1964, Luther Terry issued a groundbreaking report linking smoking to lung cancer, a pivotal moment that catalyzed the nation’s anti-smoking efforts. In 1986, C. Everett Koop released an historic report on AIDS, challenging stigmas and promoting education. More recently, in 2018, I issued an advisory urging Americans to carry naloxone, a lifesaving medication for opioid overdoses. Subsequently naloxone dispensing increased 400%, and we are now seeing declines in overdose deaths. These initiatives were successful not because of the individuals behind them, but because of the trust and respect that the Office of the Surgeon General commands.”

He goes on to say “The qualifications for this esteemed position are not merely formalities but essential to its credibility and effectiveness. Traditionally, U.S. surgeons general have been career officers in the Public Health Service Commissioned Corps (PHSCC), with advanced medical training and often additional qualifications in public health or related fields.” Means falls short on almost every criteria. She is only being nominated because of her relationship to Kennedy. Adams finds it “incomprehensible” that she is even being considered for surgeon general. Hey, maybe she will issue an advisory on doing jigsaw puzzles to arrest dementia and erectile dysfunction.

Not surprisingly, she does not have the votes for confirmation. Yet the nomination of Means is in a way consistent with Trump’s intent on disrupting things. HHS is in chaotic disarray because of Kennedy and his allies overturning the apple cart. It is certainly not business as usual. The question is whether all this is doing good – or doing bad.

By the way, Kennedy, who says he has a parasitic worm in his brain, is having the National Institutes of Health fund a study on whether ivermectin can cure cancer. Kennedy also touted ivermectin as a treatment for Covid – to the horror of the medical establishment which characterizes ivermectin as “a cheap, off-patent anti-parasitic deworming drug.” I can guarantee that Means is on-board with this study.

What do you think?

The Iranian bombing and the useful idiots on the left

I am no expert on foreign policy nor to I profess to be such. Do you know any? I know only one person and he will tell you that his expertise is localized and not universal. So I wonder what will be the consequences of the attack on Iran? Will the world be safer now that Khamenei and his close associates are now dead? Recall when Sadaam Hussein was deposed and we were told that the world would now be safer? If it happened it was too subtle for me to see. Seems like when Hussein was there, he kept fighting with the Iranians which lessened their terrorism against the rest of us. Or was I just imagining that?

Well Khamenei and his buds had to have been the dumbest leaders ever – this side of Maduro. I can’t imagine that after all the military buildup in the Gulf and Trump’s sword rattling that Khamenei and at least 40 of Iran’s senior leadership would allow themselves to be killed just sitting around sipping tea. BTW, Wikipedia is calling the killing an assassination. Hadn’t they shelters or safe houses? Haven’t they heard of Zoom? Leadership this incompetent doesn’t deserve to continue. But what will take its place? More hardline clerics? Bringing back the son of the Shah? Democratic rule? What will be the impact on the Middle East? What will be the impact on the rest of the world? What will be the impact on Ukraine where the Russians relied on Iran for supplies and drones?

Of all the uncertainly in the world, one thing was certain. When the bombing started I was awaiting the announcement from the Iranians of a school or mosque or a hospital being bombed with a bunch of children killed (remember the hospital in Gaza?). I was also expected the sycophants in the west to run with the story without vetting it trying to drum up sympathy for the poor revolutionary guards and henchmen that were killed. I was also expecting the Israelis and Americans to counter the story saying that the hospital/school/mosque was actually hit by a stray Iranian missile – the old gang that couldn’t shoot straight story. And lo and behold! All that happened just like clockwork. Also certain was that like clockwork our local Muslim cheerleaders like Zohran Mamdani, Illan Omar and Rashida Tlaib would rush to condemn the US attack and parrot the Iranian propaganda. You mean they were happy with Khamenei’s oppressive regime and the export of terror around the globe? I really don’t believe that. Rather they relish any opportunity to condemn America and especially Trump. Its like that old story about if Trump fell out of a boat and started walking on water, the headlines would read “Trump can’t swim!”

Omar, a Somali, tweeted “Trump has launched an illegal regime change war. As someone who has survived the horrors of war, I know military strikes will not make us safer; they will inflame tensions and push the region further into chaos.” Mamdani, an Ugandan, said “Today’s military strikes by the United States and Israel mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal act of war of aggression. Bombing cities, killing civilians, opening up a new theater of war — Americans do not want this. Americans do not want another war in pursuit of regime change. We want an answer to the affordability crisis. We want peace.” Tlaib, a Palestinian, was the most forceful of the group saying of Trump “He doesn’t care about our loved ones in the military. He doesn’t care about the Iranian people. He is corrupted. Don’t fall for the lies.” Tlaib cares about our military? Now that’s a new one. She also bought the Irani propaganda about the bombing of the school lock stock and barrel saying “The Trump Administration and Israeli regime’s illegal war of aggression on Iran has already killed dozens of children, and more horrific death and destruction will come.” Are they defending the barbaric actions of the Khamenei regime that spread terror across the region, threatened to nuke Israel, imprisoned and raped women who wouldn’t wear a hajib, viciously repressed women, gays and religious minorities and culminated in the killing of thousands of their own citizens? 

I guess I am not surprised by these comments or by the western media immediately accepting Iranian propaganda as fact. I think we call these “useful idiots.” We have seen this too many times before. We have also seen the “organic” instantaneous appearance of protests across America against the bombing. You mean all these people are pro-Khamenei? Hardly, they are not pro-Khamenei. They are anti-American. But don’t misunderstand, I am not one to believe the American and Israeli propaganda either. 

But did you notice that the reaction of most of the democrat leadership was different from these Muslim-Americans? Typically it was just whining. Chuck Schumer complained that the administration failed to provide Congress and the public with “essential details about the scope and urgency of the threat” and that “President Trump’s erratic cycles of escalation and the risk of a widening conflict do not constitute a sustainable strategy.” Ho hum. Mark Warner bemoaned that Trump recognizing the Iranian threat was insufficient to exempt the president from the obligation to operate within the law and called on the president to present a clear strategy, a defined objective, and a plan to prevent escalation. Whoopie. And of course John Fetterman was on the other side saying “President Trump has been willing to do what’s right and necessary to produce real peace in the region. God bless the United States, our great military, and Israel.” Sidebar: for those who say that Fetterman should switch parties, please shut up. Fetterman is far to the left of every republican senator and has no business being in the same party as Marsha Blackburn. Fetterman needs to stay a democrat and we should hope for more democrats like him. More and more he is reminding me of Scoop Jackson.

One last point, I know that there are those among us who want to deport every illegal saying because they are illegal it means that they have broken our laws which by definition makes them criminals. But consider this a case of bait and switch. Biden and the democrats made them welcome and invited them in. And in response here they came. Many left families, friends, their homeland and culture – giving it all up for a better life for themselves and their children. You want to send them back when most embody what you contend are your own values? They are Christians, have strong nuclear families, are against abortions, hard working and want to fulfil the American dream. Thank your stars that our neighbors to the south are Christians and not Muslims. We are not being invaded by a group that wants to impose Sharia law. We are not being invaded by those who want to veil our women, make them cover their faces and heads, not send them to school or radicalize them to go kill those who don’t agree. If anything, experience has shown us that the immigrants from the south will become enculturated, love America and contribute to our wellbeing. I have often said that I wish our native born had the same drive, determination and work ethic as those who came across our southern border. Again, thank your lucky stars that those from the south have western values and aspirations because can you imagine how different our problems would be if there had been 10 million Muslims walking across the border instead?

It’s my fault

I am absolutely blessed. I was born to smart parents. Grew up with a brilliant older brother. Lived in a neighborhood full of educated smart people who had smart kids. Nuclear families. Got a first rate – albeit segregated – primary and secondary education. Went to the University of Georgia where every day was a challenge, forcing me to try to excel in every aspect of campus life. Go to Ohio State and work under the world’s foremost monetary economist. Have a career that I could not imagine being around smart people doing smart things. Have great friends from all walks of life with all levels of education but having one thing in common – they are all smart. So what is there not to like?

Well, have you ever had a favorite item be discontinued? It’s my fault. I have come to the conclusion that the stores monitor my purchases and then discontinue the things that I most often buy. To that end I have stopped using merchant specific credit cards – except for Sam’s because of Sam’s cash and Kroger’s for the coupons. But Sam’s did stop carrying my favorite jelly beans, protein bars, bottled tea, tea bags and chicken broth. There are probably some others as well. When Walmart had its own card, they discontinued my favorite salsa, hot sauce, trail mix and mustards. Kroger stopped carrying the chocolate clusters, type of frozen vegetable, yogurt, organic cereal and ice cream flavor that I like. Ingles stopped the type of eggs, hot sauce (again), cow bones for my dog and frozen bread that I use for pizza crust. Publix no longer carries another hot sauce (yes I like hot sauces), yogurt, BBQ sauce and marinade. Publix said that they had in stock my favorite Publix brand ice cream (chocolate trinity). When I couldn’t find it, I had the manager look for it. He said “I will find it for you.” It was in Sarasota. One day when I was at the checkout, I saw the cereal I buy in the clearance section – naturally. Costco stopped carrying the cereal and the granola I always buy. They stopped the pimento cheese I liked for a couple of years. If they discontinue their salsa and coastal cheddar cheese I would have no reason ever to go back to their store. BTW, why all the crowds? Are they giving away liquor and drugs? I don’t get it. They, too quit stocking the bottled and packaged teas I buy. Highland brewery of Asheville made my favorite stout. Not only did it disappear from the store where I bought it, it vanished from all of East Tennessee. I send my deepest regrets to all those stout lovers out there. It’s all my fault. Yee Haw brewery found out that I liked their imperial Scottish ale and stopped brewing it.

Then there are the items that are out of stock. Even on the internet the same things happen. I bought 3 dozen of my favorite mustard a year or so ago because I knew it would disappear and lo and behold when I ran out and tried to reorder, it was gone (out of stock and we do not know when it will be back in stock. We will let you know). Even when I go to ebay and miraculously find a favorite product, it too is out of stock. I placed an order once when it said there were 30 in stock. When it was slow in coming I sent a query and was told that it was no longer available and that I would get a refund. Last couple of months I have gotten three refunds from my American Express card and one from ebay. So if you buy the same things that I do and they suddenly are no longer available, its my fault. 

I love jigsaw puzzles and mine invariably are missing a piece. So if yours also is missing a piece, it is probably the same one that I bought. My daughter also loves puzzles but her’s are never missing a piece. For Christmas she gave me the perfect present, a puzzle full of dogs of various breeds showing much angst while watching a Georgia football game. She wrote “This is exactly how I feel when watching Georgia play.” When I finished the puzzle, it had a piece missing.  

Even in Gray, GA site of the family farm, there are only 4 sit down restaurants that are not fast food. There used to be six. One had great catfish where we would go every Friday. The other was a pizza place with the absolute best calzones ever. Both lasted through Covid but couldn’t last through me and both are now out of business. I apologize to all their former patrons. It’s my fault.

A sporting goods store ran an ad for a rifle/scope combination I wanted at a substantial discount. When I got to the store I was told that they had just sold the last one. Naturally. When a patron came up behind me and wanted the same gun, he was told it was no longer in stock. I apologized to him saying it was my fault. 

If I like a particular store and it is a chain, they will announce it is closing a few stores. Why is that store always the one I go to? There is a famous used book store in Knoxville with stores in Nashville, Chattanooga and Asheville. Only the Knoxville store is closing. Also why is it that anytime anything goes wrong, the repairman always says “I have been doing this for 30 years, and I have never seen this happen”? I am so used to it that when the other day, I was told that something was an easy fix, I was convinced he was lying. He was. Turns out it wasn’t so easy after all. Sometimes I feel like Joe Btfsplk, the cartoon character in Lil Abner who always had the cloud over his head being rained on while others enjoyed the sunshine or Charlie Brown who seemed to attract rain at the most inopportune times. But not to worry. This just simply makes life a bit more interesting. As a public service I will no longer reveal my preferences to retailers. But just keep in mind when some product you like disappears, it’s my fault. 

Senator Jasmine Crockett?

Way back when Texas republicans decided to follow California in gerrymandering out the opposition party from its congressional delegation, I warned of the possibility of a Senator Jasmine Crockett. No one took me seriously. To recap, the Texas gerrymander was aimed at getting rid of Crockett and Al (Full of Fire) Green – who hates Trump and was evicted from the State of the Union address. Well Crockett announced that she was running for the Senate. The right wing press laughed having branded her as a loud (and often foul) mouth kook. Well who is laughing now?

The republican senate primary has become increasingly ugly with Texas attorney general Ken Paxton and congressman Wesley Hunt challenging the incumbent John Cornyn. Both Paxton and Cornyn are in a virtual tie in the polls but Hunt is within striking distance causing both Paxton and Cornyn to release attack ads on Hunt. Meanwhile, they are spending $100 million attacking each other viciously as well. Cornyn attacked Paxton as a “crooked home wrecker” in accusing him of sleeping with a married mom-of-seven. It also claims that Paxton’s net worth has grown by as much as 7,000 percent since he took office.

Just like in several other races, if Paxton wins the primary, he is projected to lose the general election, where Crockett awaits. Crockett is leading her opponent Texas State Rep. James Talarico in the democrat primary by double digits. The polls show that Paxton would lose to either democrat while Cronyn would likely beat either. Paxton is scandal ridden and only draws his strength from being a super MAGA. Cronyn is more moderate while Hunt is somewhere in the middle.

I know that there are many on the right who are totally stupefied that a Jasmine Crockett could be elected a senator in a state where no democrat has won since 1988. Trump openly hates Crockett and has called her every name in the book. Crockett uses Trump’s distain in her campaign running against 

Trump rather than against her primary opponent. Crockett is not hesitant to match Trump’s insults calling him “Tamu Hitler” and doing her best to tie him to Epstein insinuating that he is a pedophile and saying “We have a 34-count convicted felon and there are people that are still shielding him from any time of accountability as it relates to a child sex-trafficking ring.” When Trump called her “a low IQ person” Crockett shot back “For you to be in charge of the WHOLE country, you sure do have my name in your mouth a lot. Every time you say my name, you’re reminding the world that you’re terrified of smart, bold Black women telling the truth and holding you accountable. So keep talking…”

Crockett who likes to position herself as one of the people went to toney Rhodes College in Memphis and has a law degree from the University of Houston and who has over a million followers on social media has used that to her advantage. She has said “I’m even more appalled that the very people who unequivocally support Trump—a man known for racially insensitive nicknames and mocking those with disabilities — are now outraged. Keep that same energy for all people, not just your political adversaries. Finally, this is yet another distraction. Instead of obsessing over and hanging on to my every word, maybe my political foes should focus on doing the work of the people who elected us to improve their lives.”

In her senate race she emphasizes that “I’m up with Latino voters and young people, independents favor me by a double-digit margin, and I am the preferred candidate of working-class voters This is who we need to rebuild our winning democratic coalition.” By the way, 71 percent of Texas democrats view Crockett favorably while none of the republicans have approvals of over 50 percent.

Cornyn is clearly the establishment republican choice with ad support from

the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that hammer Paxton highlighting his messy ongoing divorce and accusations of corruption and calling Paxton a “wife-cheater and fraud.” But Paxton remains the MAGA favorite even though Trump has not endorsed anyone yet. In response Paxton says “It’ll be grassroots, just like it always has been, and we’ll be out trying to compete. Obviously, Cornyn has got a lot of money, D.C. money. I don’t have that money. We’ll have our money from Texas.” But the NRSC said “John Cornyn is the only

Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup,” and warned “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”

Hunt says the got in the race because he feared that Paxton would beat Cornyn and lose in the general election.

Crockett is focusing her campaign on affordability. “The first thing that we could do on day one is to rein in the tariffs. I’m really excited to say that last week, the House started a process, and we got enough votes from the Republican side to start to rein in some of those tariffs. We still have a lot more work to do.” She also said “But I think that in this unique moment, at this inflection point, people want to know, are you real or not? And I think that that is what they get from me.” 

Wouldn’t it be the height of irony that in an effort to get Crockett out of the House that she lands in the Senate? Regardless of who finally wins the republican primary, there is a really possibility that the next senator from Texas may be Jasmine Crockett.