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Jasmine Crockett, Mark Carney and Fartcoins

Jasmine Crockett who seems to be the voice of the resistance strikes again. Thecongresswoman from Texas said that it was not illegal for an illegal to come into the country illegally. Crockett said “They (the republicans) continue to say things like ‘the illegals’ and that they broke the law coming in. But what they’re not telling the American people is that it is a civil violation. It is not a criminal violation to enter the country illegally. It’s not. It’s not criminal. It’s not a crime. It’s not a crime.” Now Crockett is a graduate of Rhodes College in Memphis and has a law degree from the University of Houston. So one would assume that she knows the law with regard to whether an illegal coming into the country illegally has committed a crime. Almost immediately, those on the right exploded stating that under Title 8, US Code 1325, illegal entry is punishable by a fine or jail time. Tom Homan, the border czar, who had previously said that Crockett was “not very bright” was quick to unload on her. “It’s really pathetic that any member of Congress doesn’t understand what the law says.” Right. Especially one who is a lawyer. Did she pass the bar? Maybe Crockett misspoke.

Oh, Canada!

Donald Trump has flipped the coming Canadian election. Before the tariffs the conservative party was 20 points ahead of Trudeau’s liberals. Then Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney is replacing him. Now Carney’s liberals are slightly ahead of the conservatives. Why? Trump. Carney has pledged that Trump will not run roughshod over the country and resisting Trump has resonated with the Canadian voters.  Carney is the anti-Trump. He was the head of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.  He is a prominent leader of the global cabal that meets at Davos. Carney along with Michael Bloomberg and Blackrock’s Larry Fink were the main forces behind the net zero alliance pushing ESG (environment, social and governance) policies at the corporate level and seeking to rid us of fossil fuels. I once called Larry Fink the most dangerous person in the world since he is sitting atop $11 trillion in funds to manage. Of course, pressure mainly emanating from states like Texas, Florida and Tennessee and from republicans have caused Fink to back off his ESG demands. However, Carney who had been strong arming banks into signing the net zero pledges is still a true believer. So thank Donald Trump for getting Carney elected Canadian prime minister.

Fartcoin? Surely you juest!

I admit I know absolutely nothing about bitcoin. I cannot understand why any cryptocurrency has any value at all. I thought it was a way to launder money and would just be embraced by the dark side. Trump’s endorsement of bitcoin caused the price to go to $105,000. Trump announced a bitcoin reserve but said that the reserve would be from cryptocurrencies acquired through seizures and not through new purchases. That caused the price to promptly fall to $89,000. Someone told me that the attraction of cryptocurrencies is that they are outside the control of governments. Do I hear money laundering anyone? One person said that while the central bank can expand the money supply at will, not so much with bitcoin. Well I thought that you could create new bitcoin through “mining”. Anyway, if you reach a bitcoin limit all you have to do is create a new cryptocurrency. Currently there are over 25,000 cryptocurrencies extant. Moreover, there is something called meme coins that are created as a joke. There is a Trump meme coin, a DOGE coin, a Melania coin and even a fart coin. One would think that these would have zero value. But think again. The Trump coin is the number one meme coin and has a market cap of $2 billion. Fartcoin “only” has a market cap $250 million. Cryptocurrencies are the ultimate fiat currency. While national currencies like the dollar have been criticized for not being backed by anything other than the full faith and credit of the government, cryptos are backed by absolutely nothing at all making them the ultimate greater fool asset. Again one only would buy a cryptocurrency thinking that there is a greater fool out that that will be willing to pay even more for it. $89,000 for a bitcoin? Now where is that greater fool?

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I like Amy Coney Barrett

The holier than thou yahoos on the right are no better than the ones on the left except those on the left are supported by their minions in the media. Currently the ones on the right have their sharp knives out for Amy Coney Barrett who had the temerity to join the court’s liberals – along with John Roberts – in ruling that Trump could not freeze the USAID funds that were to pay organizations for work that they already had done for the government. Why they lashed out only at Barrett and not Roberts is something of a mystery. Sexist maybe?

I guess they forgot Barrett’s stellar performance at her senate confirmation hearing where she demonstrated a complete mastery of the law with almost an eidetic memory of prior rulings. Some idiot said that Barrett was “a warning against the dangers of Republican DEI.” Whatever that means. Another loud mouth proclaimed that Barrett was the “biggest disappointment on the court” and said that Trump should defy the court’s decision. That critic is a fool and wants to precipitate a constitutional crisis, a la Biden. Another critic said that Barrett was a DEI pick only chosen because she was a woman and a woman was needed to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So I presume the same critics would say that Clarence Thomas was a DEI hire since he took Thurgood Marshall’s seat on the court. One critic – who I designate as a fool – said that Barrett was a “rattled law professor with her head up her ass.” 

Goodness gracious! What blind partisan idiots. What no criticism of Roberts whose vote gave us Obamacare? What a joke. All of the justices, save Alito and Thomas have been subject to tantrums from the right because they do not rule 100 percent on things some on the far far right would like. Gorsuch has often sided with the liberals, especially on Native American issues. Kavanaugh has been called “wobbly”. Roberts, of course, is called a traitor. What about rulings that were unanimous? Are all the conservative justices then wobbly?

The criticisms from the lunatic fringe on the right are embarrassing. Barrett has a terrific mind and is her own person. Her interpretation of the Constitution is as solid as Thomas’ or Alito’s. Her intellect is on par or above any member of the court. She is certainly not out of her league like Sotomayor. She has certainly not let her personal views trump her opinions like Kagan. I admire her (and Gorsuch and Kavanaugh) who unlike most of us does not let the brutal vitriol from the democrats in her senate hearing bias her rulings. Many if not most of us would never rule on any matter that would favor the democrats if we went through the hell of a confirmation hearing. Yet Trump’s appointees have risen above that and have ruled in a manner consistent with their interpretation of the constitution, The vast majority of Barrett’s votes have been with the other conservatives on issues important to the right such as abortion, and affirmative action admissions. She has voted with Thomas and Alito 80 percent of the time.

One legal scholar has called Barrett among “the most distinguished conservative jurists of the past 100 years.” He also said that “She’s been in the vanguard of conservative jurisprudence on abortion, racial preferences, the administrative state, religious freedom, Trump immunity, guns and the Second Amendment.” Obviously, her critics have forgotten about those opinions. They have also forgotten that she also voted to grant Trump sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions.

Two separate constitutional scholars have said the same about her. “Barrett clearly has some procedural preferences — she’s more hawkish on standing than many, she’s skeptical of the virtues of the emergency docket, and she dislikes reaching the merits of a big case when the details aren’t entirely clear — and she follows those preferences rigorously.”  They find her rulings consistent with her principles and may end with some votes that favor Trump and some that don’t. For this she should be lauded rather than cursed. She is indeed a terrific justice.

BTW although I am not a lawyer I think Trump’s tariffs are illegal. They are a clear misuse of the Emergency Economic Powers Act. I am wondering when will Trump be sued over it. . What will be the vote on the Court? I will bet that Trump will lose and it should be unanimous. If so, what will the MAGA zealots scream then?

Trump’s stock market

Donald Trump claims to pay attention to the stock market. Some have even said that Trump uses the market as a barometer of his success (or failure). I find that curious since Trump has to know that the market is losing value due to his tariffs. Yet he is plowing ahead. The market thinks he isn’t bluffing. Trump has to know that tariffs will lead to higher prices on consumer goods, higher prices on housing due to lumber costs rising and lower real incomes. He has to know that since announcing his tariffs that consumer sentiment has fallen every month that he has been in office. It fell in February and is still falling in March. Trump may be surrounded by sycophants who cheer his every move (see his cabinet and Fox) but markets and consumers are definitely not cheering. Trump has said that he wants lower taxes and lower interest rates to offset the tariffs. But that is simply crazy talk, unless he wants a full blown double digit inflationary recession on his hands. Earth to Donald: the Fed is not going to lower interest rates. Rather they are likely to raise them.

Stocks have been falling as Trump has geared up his tariffs. The S&P rose with Trump’s election and has given back all its gains since then falling 4 percent. The Dow has lost over 2000 points. The NASDAQ has lost 7 percent. The question is “Is Trump listening?” He takes credit for a rising market. Is he going to take credit for a falling one?

I have called his tariffs “stupid”. The Wall Street Journal has called them “dumb.” What will Trump do? He will likely blame everyone and every thing but himself. But ultimately it is all on him. It will be Trump’s inflation. It will be Trump’s recession no matter what he says. He claims that the tariffs are to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegals from Mexico and Canada. Huh? What flow of fentanyl and illegals from Canada? Trudeau called both Trump and the tariffs “dumb.” Trump wasn’t pleased. He actually said that he wants to force a recession in Canada to force companies to move their facilities to the States. He will lift the tariffs only if production is shifted from Canada to the United States. The Canadians are likely just to get ticked off and impose reciprocal tariffs, cut off gas, oil and electricity to the US and look for other trading partners. 

As to Mexico, they sent 10,000 troops to the border. The flow of illegals is down to a trickle and yet Trump is going forward with the tariffs. Like Canada, Trump wants to pressure firms to move their production from Mexico to the US. Perhaps this is why he doesn’t just renegotiate the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The trade agreement will lower all tariffs but leave production in Mexico and Canada. In the meantime, Mexico will pursue other trade partners. If countries have learned anything, Trump cannot be trusted.

February was a bad month for the markets. Forty percent of the earnings on the S&P 500 comes from overseas operations. Yet Trump took little notice. Trump says he cares about the markets but that doesn’t show in his actions. I don’t think he can take the Biden way out in blaming all his woes on the previous administration. It won’t be Biden’s inflation. It won’t be Biden’s recession. It will be Trump’s. The markets have been called overvalued but are now slipping into correction territory. Much of the volatility of the market is laid at the feet of the non-professional investors. Well if they panic and start to sell, then the market could be in for a significant correction. 

For every 5 point increase in tariffs corporate earnings fall by 2 percent. Thus, Trump’s 25 percent tariffs would translate to a 10% fall in market valuations. The markets have been volatile going up when Trump delays implementation of tariffs and down when he threatens to use them. With Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on every country that trades with America, look for even more market volatility. Let’s hope that Trump is bluffing because if he is not, look for a significant market correction followed by an economic downturn and inflation. And Donald, it won’t be Biden’s fault.

Random Thoughts #51

Back to Asheville!

The portion of I-40 in North Carolina that was closed due to Hurricane Helene is back open albeit only one lane in each direction. Motorists have been advised that the speed limit will be 35 mph and expect delays that may be hours instead of minutes. The reopening highlights the incompetence of Biden’s transportation secretary Pothole Pete Buttigieg who was clearly a DEI hire and who may have been the worse transportation secretary in history. Before, it was announced that the road would not reopen until September 2025. What happened? We got a change of administration. New Transportation secretary Sean Duffy made it a priority. He got a special use permit to allow extraction of construction materials from the Pigeon River rather than having to transport them 50+ miles reducing the timeline and the costs provided by the Biden Administration by two-thirds. Once the estimate was that it would take three years to get the interstate back to operating four lanes. Want to bet that now it will be quicker?

Pothole Pete, who has no accomplishments, is gearing up to run for the senate from Michigan. Odds of winning? Who knows but if Adam Schiff can win a senate seat in California then most anything is possible. 

The Weird Oscars

I just read about the Oscars. I didn’t even know it was on and even if I did, I wouldn’t have watched, would you? More importantly have you even heard of the winners? Best picture went to something called Anora which virtually no one has seen. It is supposed to be a foul mouth, sexually explicit comedy about a prostitute who marries the son of a Russian oligarch. Yep. Sounds like a winner to me. The prostitute won best actress.

Speaking of which, once the odds on favorite to sweep the Oscars was Emilia Perez with 13 nominations. The academy was poised to bestow best actress upon a male actor until it was revealed that he (she) had racist and xenophobic tweets. Gasp! The nerve! The movie ended up with only 2 awards.

Perez is described as a musical crime comedy about a Mexican cartel leader who transitions into a woman and is reformed. Sounds really entertaining.  Is this like taking the aggressiveness out of a dog by neutering it? Regardless, this is weird or am I missing something?

Has the Academy lost its flipping mind?

Why anyone cares what the movie industry thinks about itself and pats itself on the back is beyond me.

The public thought the best movies of 2024 were Inside Out 2, Deadpool and Wolverine and Wicked. Of course I would not award anything to anything named wolverine. Of the top ten highest grossing movies only Wicked and Dune: Part two were nominees. What no Beetlejuice? No Godzilla x Kong? No Kung Fu Panda 4? 

Trump’s non-negotiating tariffs

Turns ‘out that the tariffs were not a negotiation tool with Mexico and Canada to stop the flow of fentanyl after all. First Trump said that the tariffs would be delayed if they beefed up their borders. He lied. They did but the tariffs were imposed anyway. What Trump wants is to force the automobile companies to move all their operations back into the US. He said was “What they have to do is build their car plants in the United States, in which case you have no tariffs.” So Trump is saying that if US companies move their production into the US then there will be no tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Well Honda just announced that it is moving its production of Civic hybrids from Mexico to Indiana. Threats work.

If Trump wants to clamp down on fentanyl then why did he raise China’s tariffs by only 10% while raising Mexico’s and Canada’s by 25 percent? So fentanyl is just a ruse. Earth to Trump: RAISE CHINA’S TARIFFS TO 1000 PERCENT!
That will get their attention.

Speaking of China, Taiwan Semiconductor, one of only two trillion dollar companies outside of the US, has announced it is investing $100 billion in new plants in the US. I wonder what is the quid pro quo? More arms for Taiwan?

Trump versus the Federal workforce

Why shouldn’t Trump go after federal workers? They are part of the resistance. Ninety percent of them voted for Harris and 50 percent said that they would resist Trump’s initiatives. Federal bureaucrats know that administrations are short-lived and will hunker down and wait them out. Some agencies are notorious in slow walking policies that they do not favor. I should know having spent time a good deal of my career as a Washington bureaucrat.

One downside is that Trump terminated all probationary workers (including my cousin who had moved from Atlanta to Knoxville to take a position at Oak Ridge).

Trump’s pivot away from Ukraine

When did Kiev become Kyiv?

Trump is halting all military aid to Ukraine. I think this is called coercive diplomacy. Again, would he refuse to sell the arms to Ukraine if they wanted to buy them? Currently, Ukraine provides 40 percent of the materiel for its own defense, 30 percent from Europe and 30 percent from the US. But the 30 percent from the US is the most sophisticated, the most lethal and provides their air defense. Trump wants Ukraine’s minerals and Putin has offered to sell him minerals from the provinces Russia has seized that contain 40 percent of the country’s mineral wealth. Is there a deal with the devil coming?

Who can Ukraine turn to in order to bolster its air defenses? Russia is relentless with its drone attacks and loves to hit civilian targets. The day after Trump halted military aid, the Russians launched a drone and missile attack on Ukraine’s natural gas extraction facilities. Coincidence?

BTW, I have no doubt that Zelenskyy is probably skimming off some of the aid form the US and the EU. Ukraine’s officials are famous for corruption. But what government isn’t? There are millions in aid unaccounted for. Sounds like the Pentagon.

Democrats continue to hate women

The Senate failed to pass Coach Tommy Turberville’s bill to ban males from competing in women’s sports 51-45. I simply don’t understand the senate rules that 60 votes would be needed to pass such a bill. Every democrat voted against the bill, including John Fetterman. Again explain to me why the democrats continue to be on the wrong side of this issue. But I doubt if they will ever pay a price for this at the polls. Reelection rates in the House are usually 96% or higher. In the Senate the reelection rate was unusually low at 88 percent in 2024 but was 100 percent in 2022. Incumbency is powerful. Trump carried Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona yet democrats won their Senate seats. Only Arizona had an open seat and the republicans again for some reason ran the toxic Kari Lake who might have been the only candidate that could lose to Reuben Gallego. 

Lastly, I heard one of the most uninformed discussions ever on Trump’s tariffs on The Five on Fox. Only Harold Ford, Jr knew what he was talking about. Dana Perino made sense because her political instincts were right on. But Judge Jeanine and Jesse Watters who will defend Trump to the death had no clue what they were talking about. Your bias is showing Fox.

Is buying Tesla a rational act?

Tesla is a very strange company. Its P/E ratio is 146 meaning it is still a darling in the market. This puts it in the greater fool territory. It would take a 146 years for a buyer of the stock to regain the amount purchased. I doubt if there is anyone optimistic enough to think that they will be around 146 years from now. Rather the investor knows that the only way to recoup the investment will be through capital gains meaning that there is a greater fool out there willing to pay even more for the stock. I know that Tesla is depicted as not being valued as a car company. Rather it is depicted as being valued as a high tech firm. Well don’t you think that most high tech firms are also in the greater fool territory too?

Tesla’s market cap is an astounding $871 billion making it the twelfth “most valued” company in the world. Veteran automobile companies have a much smaller market cap. Ford has a market cap of only $36 billion while GM has a market cap of $49 billion. Mind you Tesla makes about 1.5 million vehicles a year. Ford makes 4.5 million and GM makes over 6 million. So obviously Tesla is not being evaluated as a car company.

But the sharp knives are coming out for Tesla. Is this because of Elon Musk? It is rapidly losing sales in Europe. It has encountered stiff competition in China. Here in the states, several high profile personalities have made a big show out of getting rid of their Teslas. However, I think Tesla’s main troubles will arise from it not being very good at making cars. Its frequency of repair record is the worse among all vehicles, Yet its owners remain fiercely loyal. That is why I said that they are a cult. If any other manufacturer had that distinction, it would lose sales in droves. Motor Trend just reported that the national highway statistics reveal that Tesla is now the deadliest car in America. How will that affect its followers? Elon Musk is a lot smarter than I am but I think he ought to spin off his car company from the rest of his enterprise and sell it to a company that is good at making cars. I know that people will be saying that Ford or GM or any other car company is too small to by Tesla but that ignores what the car only company would be valued.

Tesla has been losing market value as its car sales have fallen. Registrations in Europe have fallen a staggering 45 percent January year to date. Tesla stock is off 25 percent and Musk has found his personal wealth falling $100 billion. Ho hum. Although it is possible that Musk’s prominent role in the Trump administration and his meddling in German politics are reasons for the decline the greater fool hypothesis also makes sense. Stockholders may be cashing in capital gains because the stock is still up 52 percent from last year. 

Selling Tesla will still leave Musk with Space X, the media platform X, an artificial intelligence company and Neuralink. Musk could still pioneer automobile technology such as self-driving and its robo-taxi service. There is no reason to own a car company just to bring that technology to the market. Rather Musk could sell that technology to the automobile industry. No longer will he have to deal with what seems like a daily recall to fix fit of finish, power steering, rear view cameras, tire pressure monitoring systems, power trains, hood latches, windshield wipers, seat belt warning, accelerator pedal malfunctions, autosteer, dashboard font system, faulty door latches and other stuff. Fierce customer loyalty in the face of all this? Did I say cult? Seriously, wouldn’t Musk be better served if he sold Tesla and concentrated on being a technology company? BTW, there is no way I would want to hitch a ride on Space X.

and Trump’s weird nominees

I really don’t have much to say about Trump’s address to the congress and the democrat reaction to it. Except the democrats showed out (to quote my sainted mother). Al Green – the representative from Texas – not the singer was “Full of Fire.” He started shouting at the beginning of Trump’s speech and would not shut up. He was escorted out of the chamber by the sergeant at arms, probably not singing “Let’s stay together” or “Take me to the river”. Green hates Trump and has put forth articles of impeachment. However, Green should be embarrassed (which he is not). The young boy that Trump made a member of the Secret Service lives in Green’s district. Yet Green chose to act out rather than to stay and congratulate his young constituent. Some democrat women wore pink to symbolize their “protest of Trump’s policies which are negatively impacting women and families.” Huh? Since when have democrat women politicians given a hoot about women? Didn’t all of them vote against the resolution to prohibit males from participating in women’s sports? And what’s with the ping pong paddles? Didn’t they get humiliated enough when Rashida Tlaib waved her ping pong paddle at Netanyahu during his speech back in July? Yet there they were, the women looking like a Pepto Bismol commercial waving ping pong paddles. Tlaib? She was waving a whiteboard (is that racist?) on which she wrote cryptic messages like “That’s a lie”, “Start by paying your taxes”, “Stop lying to the American people” and “No king” whatever that meant. Such deep thoughts from one of congress’s deepest thinkers.

I am certain that the petulance shown by the democrats only registered with their Trump hating constituents but not the American people writ large. Again this is the crew who are protesting and resisting for big government, big spending, big duplication, continued fraud and waste, DEI, ESG, men competing in women’s sports, men in women’s private places, open borders, benefits for illegals, higher taxes, more regulations, killing babies and subsidizing the greenie weenies. What’s not to love? Has ever there been a sharper division between the democrats and republicans since the Civil War? There almost were confrontations on the chamber floor. When Green was ousted, the republicans sang “Hey, hey good bye.” Several dems turned their backs to Trump displaying the message “resist”. Some yelled at Trump during the speech evoking images of the British House of Commons. Nancy Mace and MTG yelled at Green during his outburst. Melanie Stansbury (D-NM) had a sign that said “This is not normal” – whatever that meant – and Lance Gooden (R-TX) ripped the sign from her and tossed it away. At least Pelosi was no longer on the dais ripping up the speech. The next day the AP reported that a screaming match erupted on the House floor in the vote to censure Green. During the reading of the resolution the dems broke out in song singing “We shall overcome” while the republicans yelled “order”.  Squad members Pressley and Tlaib shouted at the republicans who shouted back. I am waiting for the members to start beating up each other with Al Green’s canes and maybe a duel or two. Is it now accurate to say that the parties hate each other? Regardless, what is going on now is infantile. A pox on both of their houses.

Only John Fetterman had the guts to call out the members of his party saying “A sad cavalcade of self owns and unhinged petulance. It only makes Trump look more presidential and restrained. We’re becoming the metaphorical car alarms that nobody pays attention to—and it may not be the winning message.” Fetterman continues to surprise. He is still a liberal and will vote with the majority of his party most of the time. But he is definitely his own man. Who would have thunk it? I am starting to be glad he beat Dr Oz because the dems need more like him. Fetterman is rare because he has guts and doesn’t care what the Bernie Sanders/AOCs of the world think about him.

Dr Oz? Trump picked him to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. I have no idea how he will perform his duties but his boss will be RFK, Jr who is still a kook. Let’s just chalk this up as Trump continuing to find a place for losers. Recall he even appointed Kari Lake who almost single handedly flipped Arizona from republican to democrat to be head of Voice of America and changed it to something called “Special advisor for the US Agency for Global Media” whatever that is. I think this is the Orwellian foreign propaganda arm of the US government which includes Radio Marti broadcasting son cubano to Cuba. Does this agency do any good? Or is it just another black hole to toss money into?

The Bully in the China shop

Trump is truly the bull in the china shop. Or should I say Trump is truly the bully in the china shop? Now if he would only impose a 1000 percent tariff on all things Chinese…..

Trump has declared war on the world. Trump says he will impose his magic 25% tariffs because they won’t buy our cars and impose a 25 percent tariff on Europe but nothing on Russia.. This shows the stupidity of the Europeans. Why impose a 10 percent tariff on American cars when they won’t fit on Europe’s narrow streets? When I was living in Germany, the biggest car I saw was a Camaro that barely could fit on the streets of Konstanz. Look for Europe to put big tariffs on Harleys, bourbon, agriculture and other American goods.

I wonder if the Europeans impose tariffs on European cars made in America? BMW exports 225,000 cars from its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant with a value of over $10 billion. The cars are exported to 115 countries, including Germany and the UK. Will Trump cut a deal with BMW, Mercedes and the other foreign companies with plants in the US? Look for carveouts.

Of course all this is stupid. Why didn’t Trump just say that he was going to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners by a certain date unless they agreed to either the same tariff or no tariff at all? But then again, Trump is obsessed with the trade deficit and reciprocal tariffs do not address the deficit. But if we insisted that the rest of the world buy as many US goods as we buy from them, even if they could (which they can’t) they would all be crushed to death by all the stuff piled up on them. Think Viet Nam. What we need to do is to convince Trump that the trade deficit is actually an American export. More on that later.

The pro-Hamas mob at Columbia University is back at it. When Barnard, its sister college, expelled two students for disrupting a Jewish history class, around 100 Columbia and Barnard college students protested by occupying a Barnard campus building and sending one security guard to the hospital. Naturally, the students were wearing masks and keffiyehs. The students chanted their standard antisemitic slogans. Barnard college officials sat on their thumbs, did not have the protestors arrested and waited for them to leave the building. 

This nonsense has got to stop. The students say that “unmasking exposes them to greater risk of doxxing, violence, and disciplinary action.” Damn right. All students wearing masks should be expelled with no exceptions. All students disrupting campus life should be expelled with no exceptions. Those on student visas should be kicked out of the country. Quit coddling these spoiled tyrants. Of course, many of the faculty and administrators at Columbia and Barnard are more sympathetic to the protestors than with the Jewish students which may be a reason for the wimpy response. 

But Trump is coming to the rescue! Leo Terrell, one of many Fox commentators tabbed by Trump, heads a Justice Department task force charged with bringing “the full force of the federal government to bear in an effort to eradicate antisemitism in schools like Columbia and Barnard”. Is there anyone left at Fox? Terrell’s task force will visit at least 10 schools that have been soft on these protests. It is not certain what disciplinary actions will be taken. But this antisemitic harassment has got to stop. Maybe if Terrell recommended that the endowments of these schools be taxed or that all federal funds would be terminated, the protests would end immediately. I bet if the students were harassing trans students, that the universities would have been arresting and expelling. What is interesting is that Jews are overwhelmingly democrats with 79 percent voting for Kamala Harris. College professors and administrators are the most loyal democrat constituency with 92% supporting Harris. Yet these leftists are idly sitting by while a bunch of rowdy left wing socialists are harassing their fellow left wingers who happen to be Jewish. And Trump is riding to the rescue? I thought he was a Nazi? Go figure.

Speaking of “is anyone left at Fox?”, Trump selected Dan Bongino to be FBI deputy. That makes 21 Fox personalities tabbed so far. So Fox has announced it is hiring Trump’s people. Former DOGE co-chief Vivek Ramaswamy will have a show on Fox Nation. Fox is hiring Trump’s family members too. My other half who watches Fox when she is not watching Antiques Roadshow was looking a show hosted by Lara Trump. Who’s next? Melania?

A Trump recession? You heard it here first.

If Trump loves tariffs so then why doesn’t he use them to try to alter Chinese behavior? I don’t mean this piddling 10 percent increase either. China is a bad actor.  It is rattling its swords in the South China sea. It continues to threaten Taiwan. Trump’s actions toward Ukraine may have emboldened the Chinese to become even more aggressive towards Taiwan. Trump is not going to come to Taiwan’s rescue militarily. So what is there that will slow them down? Tariffs. If Trump told China that he was going to impose a 1000 percent levy on all Chinese imports if they didn’t quit the threats in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan. I bet that would get their attention. For good measure, I would tell them to stop all the hacking and quit harassing the Uyghurs. Do it.

Stop with the Trump worship already! One lawmaker wants Trump’s face chiseled into Mount Rushmore. Another wants to make his birthday a federal holiday. Still another wants to change the name of Washington Dulles Airport.

Tennessee’s Andy Ogles wants to amend the Constitution to allow only presidents who have served nonconsecutive terms to seek a third term. Hello Donald Trump. Hello Grover Cleveland. What about adding his likeness to Mount Rushmore? What about renaming Greenland as “Red, White and Blue land?” Mark Alford (R., Mo.) has proposed Feb. 9 as “Gulf of America Day.” Some have even talked about renaming their state as “The State of Donald Trump”! How about Trump City, Tennessee? One of my granddaughters is named Reagan. Pity the poor child who is named “Trump”. Good grief! Want to bet that all this will change as Trump wears out his welcome? 

All this embarrassing – but not to Trump – hero worship will quickly vanish if Trump’s policies result in this country going into a recession. Trump’s tariff war is not confined to Mexico, Canada and China. It is with the entire world. He has threatened Europe, the BRICs countries and anyone that trades with America with tariffs. Increased tariffs in the past have led to job loss in the United States and in our trading partners. He is ignoring the Smoot-Hawley Act and ignoring what happened during his first term. This time the impacts will be magnified and will be Smoot-Hawley on steroids. He wants the Fed to ward off any recession by lowing interest rates and goosing up the money supply. This is a toxic mix that will lead to an inflationary recession. When, not if, all of this occurs then even the biggest Trump apologists will regret all the adoration that they are lavishing on him.

My next lectures will be on the stock market being overvalued. Irrational exuberance anyone? The P/E ratios all point to an overvaluation. On the S&P 500, its P/E ratio is around 37 which is 80 percent above its long term average of 20. A P/E ratio is a measure of how many years of profits will be required to recoup one’s initial investment in the stock. Tech stocks are all above the S&P average of 37. Tesla’s P/E ratio is 161. This is greater fool territory. No longer are buyers expecting that when they purchase a stock that they will recoup the cost with the anticipated flow of dividends. Rather they can only profit by selling the stock at an even higher price hoping that there is a bigger fool out there that is willing to buy it at a higher prices. This is dangerous territory and is ripe for a correction that will shave trillions of dollars off of wealth. Will it trigger a recession is the question. Losing two trillion dollars in the dot.com bubble of 2000 triggered a major recession – P/E ratios were over 100. A similar plunge by Amazon, Apple, Meta and the rest of big tech coupled with Trump’s tariffs would be recessionary and lead to democrats coming back into power in the midterms.

Canada is gearing up to match Trump’s tariffs and Trump has caused the polls in Canada to swing wildly. A month ago the conservatives were 20 points ahead of the liberals with elections coming due to Trudeau’s resignation. Now the liberals are 2 points ahead. Trump saying that he was going to use tariffs to force Canada to become the 51^st state has engendered latent patriotism and a massive pushback. Trump saying that “Tariffs will make it impossible

for them to sell cars…lumber or anything else into the U.S.” and “If we don’t support them they don’t subsist as a nation.” Mark Carney, the favorite to lead Canada’s liberals has said that Trump’s threats are “one of the greatest crises in our history. I know how to manage crises, I know how to build strong economies.” So thank Trump for the resurgence of the liberals. One observer said “If the next election is about who’s best able to handle all the turmoil that Trump is creating, then the Liberals can win that election.” All this means is that Canada will retaliate. It will impose retaliatory tariffs. It will cut off the flow of oil and electricity to the U.S. The conservatives have tried to counter the liberals with a Canada first agenda and its leader saying “Let me be clear: We will never be the 51st state. We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect our sovereignty and independence.” However, this may be too little, too late.

And mind you, these are our friends. Or should I say, these used to be our friends. Remember the bitter hockey game between the US and Canada where the Canadians booed our national anthem? Almost immediately after the puck dropped so did the gloves as a brawl ensued. Trump taunted Trudeau before the match and when the Canadians won in overtime, Trudeau tweeted “You can’t take our country—and you can’t take our game.”

Then what about our trading partner to the south? All the forecasts are for Mexico to go into a significant recession if hit by Trump’s tariffs. Trump obviously expects them to knuckle under but their socialist president is adamant that they won’t. Trump wants Mexico to do more to stop the illegals and to stop the flow of fentanyl. If not then Pete Hegseth is reported to have told Mexico’s military leaders that the United States is prepared to take unilateral military action. What! I thought that Trump was no neocon. Is Hegseth said that Trump will use the US military to go into Mexico to deal with the cartels? He can’t be serious. There is no way that Mexico will stand to see its sovereignty threatened by a US invasion. Will this be Trump’s Afghanistan and will the American people stand for it? What in the wide world of sports is going on? OK Andy Ogles, still want to kiss Trump’s ring?

Anyway I thought China was the source of all things fentanyl? That’s even more reason for a 1,000 percent tariff. 

Fortress America

It looks like Trump will abandon Ukraine in his pivot toward Russia. That should come as no surprise to the Ukrainians who are accustomed to being abandoned by the United States and left on their own. Ukraine is never going to surrender to Russia who look upon them as inferior second class citizens. From the betrayal of Woodrow Wilson, to Yalta, to Bush, Clinton and Obama the US has lied to Ukraine and/or left it to fend for itself against the Russians who were and are brutal masters. Stalin was responsible for 4 million Ukrainian deaths. Russian brutality has been front and center in this conflict. They have tortured Ukrainians, killed prisoners, abducted their children, conducted sexual violence against men as well as women and children. They have been barbaric overseers in the territory they have seized. Ukrainians have documented over 150,000 war crimes committed by the Russians. The Ukrainians know that the Russians will never be held accountable for these actions and think they can inflict them with impunity. It would be irrational for Zelenskyy to accept a peace without security. Is Ukraine simply going to abandon Luhansk and Donetsk like they abandoned Crimea? Remember those areas contain 40 percent of Ukraine’s mineral wealth.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians ever trusted the Americans. I would be equally shocked if it isn’t developing its own nuclear weapons after foolishly abandoning them at Clinton’s urging. There is no way Ukraine will accept Russian dominance. Ukraine is not going to join NATO but given all the support coming from Europe look to it joining the EU. If all this Russia mess doesn’t compel Ukraine to continue pivoting toward Europe then nothing will. But a nuclear Ukraine is necessary to keep the Russian bear away from their throats.

What I am wondering is why can’t Europe step in a broker a deal? Brussels was left out of the negotiating table in the talks between Russia and the US. But it is clear that Ukraine would never accept a deal hammered out with those two, given that it doesn’t trust either. It would be fitting if the US were left out of these negotiations. Ukraine should offer to pay the US for replacement parts and upkeep on the materiel it has and pay for anything in the future.

Some observers, more learned than I am, have posited that if the US abandons Ukraine then Russia will be emboldened to invade other countries. I think the chance of this is virtually zero. Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago thinking that it would take only a week or so to subdue the country. Surprise! Russia is a weak big bad bully with only its nukes to try to scare its opponents into submission. If Europe had any backbone it could easily dispense with the Russian threat. But the Europeans are mostly gutless. If Russia did decide to invade the Baltic states, it would probably get its butt kicked. Since Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are members of NATO then NATO would come to their defense. Would this be Trump’s World War III?  Don’t look for the US to join them. Trump’s America is not going to be drawn into any foreign wars. The neocons be damned. Look for rumblings for Trump to take the US out of NATO.

I actually think the bigger threat is that the Chinese may be emboldened to attack Taiwan. To that end we should make sure that such an invasion will be even more costly to the Chinese than Ukraine is to the Russians. I would arm the Taiwanese to the teeth with air and sea defenses. I would put an iron dome over the island. I would sell them all the missiles and jets they need for their defense and for offense against the Chinese mainland. If all this were put in place, the Chinese would have second thoughts about an invasion. And, of course, I would put a 1000 percent tariff on all Chinese goods and services worldwide.

Trump is the ultimate mercantilist. He is an isolationist. He could easily start winding down US military around the world. He would leave the rest of the world to its own devices. He is building a fortress America. To wit: “We will leave you alone so long as you leave us alone. But mess with us and all hell will rain down on you.” We no longer have any allies and precious few friends. If the politicians home and abroad say otherwise, they are lying.

Trump is upending all our trade agreements, our military alliances and pulling the country back within our own borders. It is not just America first. It is America only. If Trump and his minions stay in power going into the future – which I doubt – I can see an America with zero alliances. The rest of the world can have its territorial disputes, fight its wars and have their own alliances. Just leave us out of it. The percent of US trade to GDP is around 25%. I think Trump would be happy to cut that to zero and have America make up the difference. Tell companies that they can only sell in America what they make in America. No more iphones from China. No more avocados from Mexico. No more imported cars and trucks from Canada. No more imported anything. It would make us poorer and would take time. It would be a different America. But theoretically, it could be done.

Quo vadis, Donald?

What’s your month?

At the first of each month, I send my children a text wishing them a happy month. This time it was “Happy March!” with an appropriate emoji. Did you know that March is Women’s History Month and March 8 is International Women’s Day? Are we to say “Happy Women’s Day”? Who knew? I have no idea that the Oracle-that-Names had labeled this month as such. But then March is also National Mustache Month and National Colon Cancer Awareness Month. It got me wondering what the OTN has called the other months. Here is a not so comprehensive list.

January

National Slavery and Human Trafficking Prevention Month (hopefully more than just one month)

National Polka Month

February

Black History Month

American Heart Month

National Bird Feeding Month

March 

National Women’s History Month

National Mustache Month

National Colon Cancer Awareness Month

April

Arab American Heritage Month

Jazz Appreciation Month (I love Be-Bop)

Mathematics Awareness Month (OK what’s 5% of 10,000?)

National Child Abuse Prevention Month

National Poetry Month

Sexual Assault Awareness Month

May

ALS Awareness Month (then why is MLB’s Lou Gehrig Day June 2?)

Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month

Brain Tumor Awareness Month

Haitian Heritage Month

Jewish American Heritage Month

Lyme Disease Awareness Month

National Bike Month

National Pet Month

National Stroke Awareness Month

June

African-American Music Appreciation Month (wasn’t Jazz Appreciation Month in April?)

Caribbean American Heritage Month

Pride Month

July

Harold Black Birthday Awareness Month (just saying)

National Ice Cream Month

August

None! (What’s up with that?) Couldn’t the Oracle-that-Names shift a couple names to August?

September

Suicide Prevention Month

Gospel Music Heritage Month (Amen!)

National African Immigrant Heritage Month (who knew?)

National Bourbon Heritage Month (I don’t think they mean the French dynasty)

National Guide Dog Month

National Hispanic Heritage Month

National Honey Month (Hi Sweetie!)

National Prostate Health Month (May all your problems be behind you)

October

Breast Cancer Awareness Month

Country Music Month

Domestic Violence Awareness Month

Filipino American History Month

Italian-American Heritage Month (Columbus Day is October 13)

National Pizza Month (seems reasonable to me)

Polish American Heritage Month (no National Pierogi Month?)

November

Black Catholic History Month (is there a white Catholic history month?)

COPD Awareness Month

National Novel Writing Month

Native American/Alaska Native Heritage Month

December

None! But why don’t we just label it National Merry Christmas Month?

What no Appalachian Appreciation Month? No Western European Heritage Month? No Men’s Heritage Month? No Hip-Hop Month?  No German Shorthaired Pointer Month? No Chocolate Chocolate Chip Appreciation Month? But I guess some republican (hello Andy Ogles) will propose a Donald J. Trump Month.