Trump (and Vance) vs Zelenskyy Round One

Trump and Vance vs Zelenskyy Round One

Trump continues to shake up the status quo. Was anyone surprised that the Trump/Vance versus Zelenskyy meeting went off the rails? The surprise is that it occurred in front of the cameras. I was expecting the usual pleasantries and then for the contentiousness to occur off camera. I thought it a bit unusual that Vance was at the meeting. But perhaps Vance, who has never been a fan of aid to Ukraine, wanted in on the meeting and Trump obliged. Recall that in 2022 Vance said to Steve Bannon “I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.” It seemed that Vance intentionally tried to provoke Zelenskyy. It worked. 

As I said previously, Trump was trying to extort an agreement for the Ukraine to give us their minerals in exchange for the weapons we had given them. Zelenskyy had said that the weapons were a grant rather than an IOU. I thought that Zelenskyy would bargain for a low past payment and payment for future deliveries. Moreover, I had said that Zelenskyy would want a security guarantee from Trump if there was to be a truce with Putin and that Trump would not give it. On that point, I was correct. Why would Zelenskyy stop the war under a condition of no security guarantee? He knows that Putin will not give back the territory seized. He knows that Putin would violate the truce at first opportunity. The Russian occupied territory contains 40 percent of Ukraine’s minerals and that Putin has offered Trump a deal for access to those minerals. I would be surprised if Trump and Putin have not been talking about such a deal.

I didn’t expect an agreement with Zelenskyy because Trump is never going to guarantee Ukraine’s safety and Zelenskyy would be fool to sign an agreement without it. Trump looks down on Zelenskyy. He considers him a two-bit dictator who used to be a poor stand up comedian. Trump wants to extricate America from the war and let the burden fall upon the Europeans. The question is that if we stop arming Ukraine and they start losing the war more quickly than they are losing it now, will Europe commit ground troops to the conflict as some have suggested? Didn’t Macron say “We should not exclude that there might be a need for security that then justifies some elements of deployment”? That would embroil Europe in a major land war. Trump calls it World War III. But can it be a world war if we are sitting on the sidelines? Yes I know that much of Ukraine’s support comes from NATO and if NATO gets involved, the US is supposed to enter on their side. With Trump, that won’t happen. 

Even if Trump agreed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for its minerals, I would not be shocked if he broke it much like he renegotiated NAFTA and proceeded to break the agreement that he put in its place. If I were Zelenskyy I would be cautious in thinking that Trump can be trusted to keep his word.

It was actually fun watching all the Trumpers falling over themselves defending Trump while all the Trump haters were assailing Trump and Vance. I don’t know about you but I don’t make apologies for the behavior of others. The first polls indicate that Zelenskyy actually increased his support among his countrymen. One said “Our leader, despite the pressure, stands firm in defending the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians. … We need only a just peace with security guarantees.” Another said that there was “complete disrespect” from the United States in the Oval Office exchange, despite the fact that Ukraine “was the first country that stood up to Russia.” The Ukrainians know that Putin will violate any agreement if he can and cannot be trusted. I think Trump knows that too, but he simply doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine.

On the home front: Lindsey Graham, who never saw a war he didn’t like actually defended Trump. “Somebody asked me, am I embarrassed about Trump. I have never been more proud of the president. I was very proud of JD Vance standing up for our country. We want to be helpful. What I saw in the Oval Office was disrespectful, and I don’t know if we can ever do business with Zelenskyy again. The way he handled the meeting, the way he confronted the president, was just over the top.” Tennessee’s Diane Harshberger said “Zelenskyy could have left the White House today with a peace deal for his country, ending this conflict. Instead, he chose to disrespect our President and nation. Thank you, President Trump and Vice President Vance, for standing up for our country!” Contrast this with democrat senator Sheldon Whitehouse “Our leaders acting like ventriloquist dummies for Putin. Disgusting,” Or democrat Chris Murphy’s “What an utter embarrassment for America.” Here is a quote China’s favorite congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA) saying Zelenskyy “went into the Oval Office and stood up to Russia’s best negotiators.”

Over in Europe, their leaders are solidly behind Zelensky. European president Ursula von der Leyen posted on X, “Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy’s “dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.” Freidrich Merz, the next chancellor of Germany said that “we must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.” Then there is this, European Union foreign minister Kaja Kallas said that “today it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.” The free world needs a new leader? Wow!

If Trump’s goal was to splinter our European alliances, then he is succeeding with his tariff war, confrontation with Zelenskyy and JD Vance’s speeches in European castigating our allies. It is clear that Trump wants the Europeans to be on their own, develop their own defense capabilities and wind down US involvement. The EU’s defense budget is about the same as Russia’s despite being a much larger and richer entity. The bully in Washington seems to be forcing them to have to depend more on themselves than on the US to protect themselves from the bully in Moscow.