Is the president’s agenda too ambitious?

Is the president’s agenda too ambitious?

I think it is highly likely that the president has bitten off more than he can chew. Look at all the happenings domestically and around the world. At home, he is fighting 40 nationwide injunctions imposed by federal district courts. The Supreme Court docket now seems full of Trump- related stuff. He or his people are trying to negotiate stopping wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Rwanda. Then there are his tariffs. He has purged us of all out friends. His 10% tariff is nonnegtiable and is 5 times higher than our previous ones. That tariff is across the board and applies to countries with which we run a surplus as well as a deficit. Supposedly 150 countries were looking for deals within the latest 90 day window. That was too many to negotiate so the president now says that his secretaries of Treasury and Commerce will announce what tariffs will apply to what countries. I guess they really didn’t have time to negotiate with the delegation from Lesotho. 

Things look ad hoc. I know the Trump defenders will try to justify each and every one of his actions, deeds and misdeeds but I try my best to be an objective observer. My reaction is “Does he really know what he is doing?” I wished that he would be more disciplined and focused. But, hey, this is Donald Trump.

Consider the latest on the tariff front. There are going to be unilateral setting of tariffs – no negotiations for you. Apparently this is on “lesser” trading countries while major ones like South Korea and Japan will still be negotiated. The president said that countries could expect individual letters in which they would be told “what they will be paying to do business in the United States.” Sorry Mr President but the countries will not be “paying to do business in the United States” Surely he knows that businesses in those countries are the exporters and not the country themselves. He knows that his tariffs will be paid by the American consumer not the exporting country. Is he in denial? 

The impact of the tariffs will be a fall in imports as producers in other countries will shift sales elsewhere or even go out of business if the increased cost of their product is greater than price at which they can be sold. There are numerous incidents of this happening as the importer cannot raise prices high enough to recover the cost of the tariffs. Trump is betting on the price increases due to a 10 percent universal tariff will not be enough to dampen consumption. But then again, he learned his economics at an “elite” university so his ignorance on this matter should be excused.

Here is a time table on the chaotic nature of his tariff decisions. Such chaos leads to uncertainty amongst producers, importers and consumers. Is this any way to run a country? Some may call this being flexible but rather it looks like its being made up daily as the president changes his mind or as the last person in his office has his ear.

This is from Reuters

February 1 – Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Mexican and most Canadian imports and 10% on goods from China, demanding they curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the United States.

February 3 – Trump suspends his threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement. The U.S. does not reach such a deal with China.

February 7 – Trump delays tariffs on de minimis, or low-cost, packages from China until the Commerce Department can confirm that procedures and systems are in place to process them and collect tariff revenue.

February 10 – Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum to a flat 25% “without exceptions or exemptions”.

March 3 – Trump says 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect from March 4 and doubles fentanyl-related tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20%

March 5 – The president agrees to delay tariffs for one month on some vehicles built in Canada and Mexico after a call with the CEOs of General Motors (GM.N) and Ford (F.N) and the chair of Stellantis (STLAM.MI).

March 6 – Trump exempts goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs.

March 26 – Trump unveils a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks.

April 2 – Trump announces global tariffs with a baseline of 10% across all imports and significantly higher duties on some of the U.S.’ biggest trading partners.

April 9 – Trump pauses for 90 days most of his country-specific tariffs that kicked in less than 24 hours earlier following an upheaval in financial markets that erased trillions of dollars from bourses around the world.

The 10% blanket duty on almost all U.S. imports stays in place.

Trump says he will raise the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% from the 104% level that took effect a day earlier. This pushes the extra duties on Chinese goods to 145%, including the fentanyl-related tariffs imposed earlier.

April 13 – The U.S. administration grants exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronics imported largely from China.

April 22 – The Trump administration launches national security probes under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962 into imports of both pharmaceuticals and semiconductors as part of a bid to impose tariffs on both sectors.

May 4 – Trump imposes a 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the U.S.

May 9 – Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announce a limited bilateral trade agreement that leaves in place 10% tariffs on British exports, modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive U.S. duties on British car exports.

May 12 – The U.S. and China agree to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs. Under the 90-day truce, the U.S. will cut the extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China’s duties on U.S. imports will be slashed to 10% from 125%.

And last (so far)

May 16 – Trump says that US will unilaterally set new tariff rates for trade partners. No bogus negotiations for you!

Finally, we are beginning our camping seaon (fifth wheel not a tent) and many of the campgrounds do not have wifi and two have lousy cell service. Therefore, these postings will be somewhat irregular going forward. I know you understand and you probably need a break from the diluge of words from me. Hope you enjoy your summer. HB