A mild sense of foreboding
I know some people are probably tired of my defense of free trade and criticisms of Trump’s tariffs. But consider that I am critical of the chaos and quixotic nature of the country negotiations. It started out with some mathematical formula to calculate a “reciprocal” tariff. Then that went out of the window and was replaced by whatever the president decided at the moment. Make him mad and your tariff was doubled. The ten percent universal base tariff was replaced by the 15 percent one. Why? Only the president knows. Our allies got higher tariffs than our adversaries. Did Trump ever place a tariff on Russia? Incredibly high tariffs were placed on India (a once ally) because they purchase Russian oil driving India closer to its ancient adversary China. Instead of building and cementing alliances, we are now forcing our once allies in trade to look elsewhere. I described this policy as Fortress America because we no longer have allies. We no longer engender respect and trust. Our leader is looked upon as unprincipled and undisciplined. It is hard to argue otherwise. We have no friends we can depend on because no one and no country can depend on us.
Trade deficits do not constitute a national emergency. The national emergency is in the continued profligate spending and undisciplined politicians who are the elected leaders of the country. The national emergency is the ever widening differences between those on the political left with those on the political right. I pray that the assassination of Charlie Kirk is not a precursor of things to come when we start killing each other’s leaders and all hell breaks loose. Kirk’s murder will likely inflame the political rhetoric rather than tone it down. The left hates Trump and his cultlike MAGA disciples. I wish the president would now tone down his bellicose tweets and someone would take away his tweeting machine, I see little change of that happening. As Elizabeth Warren said when asked that Democrats need to lower the temperature in politics, “Why don’t you start with the president of the United States, right? And every ugly meme he has posted and every ugly word.” I am not surprised that neither Trump nor his enemies are working to bring back the loyal opposition.
None on the left are willing to bend a knee to Trump and offer him fealty. That seems to be the only strategy to make him back off his attacks. Haven’t you noticed that in the trade negotiations, better deals are given to those arriving at the White House bearing gifts? It has to be infuriating to both the citizens of other countries and to their leaders to come groveling before Trump bearing gifts and kissing his ring. I am not an expert on foreign affairs but Trump humiliated Japanese prime minister Ishiba leading to Ishiba’s party suffering a historic defeat in parliamentary elections. Ishiba felt forced to accept Trump’s demands of a fifteen percent tariff and pledging to “invest” $550 billion in the US with Trump crowing that the US was keeping 90 percent of the profits. Such an arrangement apparently did not sit well with the Japanese electorate. Trump actually called the pledge a “signing bonus” adding to Ishiba’s humiliation.
For me the national emergency is rather emergencies: out of control spending, trashing alliances, creeping nationalization of industry, shakedowns of countries and companies, protectionism, willy nilly tariffs, mean tweets, use of the military domestically without the consent of elected officials are all national emergencies. It is a shame because this administration inherited a mess on the left and has made progress in purging the rot from Biden’s years. However, it must be careful in not making another mess that would have to be cleaned up by another administration. My fear is that we will go careening from one mess to another building animus as we go.
Trump wants to bring back manufacturing. I have never heard a clear statement of what manufacturing does he want to bring back. The administration keeps saying that once the illegals leave then native American unemployment will fall. Yet there are over 7 million vacant jobs in the presence of illegals. Is there just a mismatch between job vacancies and skills? The Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia said that they were using (illegal) Korean workers because of the paucity of Americans with the requisite skills to get the plant up and running. Hyundai said that it would train Americans to do the work but needed to get the plant operational first.
There are common sense ways to address those areas of national security, namely rare earth minerals. Some have suggested pharmaceuticals as well and want all drugs manufactured in this country. I don’t necessarily see that but am willing to learn and listen. What I would like to see is a listing of all of the items on which we are trade dependent whose curtailment would constitute a national emergency. Then we could deal with each one. Saying that sock companies in Lesotho are evidence of a national emergency is laughable as are most of the items that are being traded across countries. But placing punitive tariffs on agricultural imports and the restricting the import of products like wood, steel and aluminum that are inputs to our outputs makes little sense.
Again I am a laissez-faire free trade economist who favors government with a small “g”. I am confident I know what makes America great I am confident I know how to make America even greater. And protectionism ain’t it. So here we are with core inflation up, unemployment up, labor force participation down, the dollar falling, countries and foreign investors shedding dollars, gold and bitcoin being safe havens (bitcoin?) and government borrowing costs rising. Did I leave anything out? No wonder I have this mild sense of foreboding. But maybe everything is going to be ok. Maybe.
My friend Don Boudreaux is an ardent supporter of free trade and I recommend his blog Café Hayek to you. Here is a posting where he takes the MAGAapologist Larry Kudlow to task for calling Trump a free trader. I would hate to be Kudlow and having to keep apologizing for Trump. As a friend of mine says “being a Trump apologist is a full time job.”
haroldblackphd.com 
Dr Black, you seem infected with TDS. Anything he does you are being hypercritical. I now feel like I am reading MSNBC here.
The radical left assassinated a beautiful human yesterday and this is all you have to say? That it was caused because Trump is mean? That he is mean to our Allies because they now have to pay us tariffs as they have charged us for decades? That DC had become so crime rampant that the National Guard was needed. And that it is working well, so other Cities that have lost control of entire Neighborhoods to crime are exploring the use too? The National Guard was used to integrate schools. Safe guarding the students that needed protection. Now entire Neighborhoods are under siege, and local cops do nothing. Can the National guard clean up Orangemound in Memphis?
https://www.localmemphis.com/article/news/local/orange-mound-guns-down-curb-crime-community-outreach/522-2fa492cd-a1d3-44bf-b1a1-c0cd0978b43c
The Crime stats from some of these deep blue cities are as bad as the BLS jobs numbers.
Finally someone is doing something about it, and all you can do is be hypercritical. I can watch MSNBC for that…..
I think Government is a good solution to very few problems. But Crime is one that it must solve.
I don’t think we have lost anything from our Allies except their notion that we are their stupid friend who picks up the check every time we go to dinner.
India is not being pushed closer China, they are being told by the US and EU we are going to sanction them, if they don’t stop supporting Russia against Ukraine by buying all the Russian oil.
And by the way, what does Russia sell to the World that could be tariffed? Your repeated claims that no tariffs are placed on Russian goods is ignorant because the Russians have no goods to sell. They make nothing anyone wants….
This bill is in Congress now. I think it sums up the EU and US sanctions on Russia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctioning_Russia_Act
I usually love reading your thoughts. But they seem to be just an anti Trump rant now. I don’t think those are enlightening me anymore.
LikeLike
Sorry about my disappointment with Trump’s economics seeming like TDS. I really like a great deal of what he is doing. I am awaiting to see the end game and what the world looks like post-Trump. If it is as you say then I will admit I am wrong and will revise my thinking. I am not very dogmatic and will gladly hope you are right and I am wrong.
LikeLike
I want the World to be a tariffs free zone too. But other countries have not opened up to us, like we have to them.
I believe the bad economic policy would be allowing that to continue.
Perhaps Trump shaking things up will benefit World Trade in the long run if we stand fast in our notions other Countries need to trade fairly with us.
In the meantime the tariffs are helping with the Government overspending, which is Congress fault. No one seems to be able to cut spending in Congress. If Trump could control Congress, I bet there would be a more balanced budget.
This Inflation was created by Congress and the Fed. But mainly Congress and Biden. The Fed just blessed their overspending by not raising rates quick enough.
Tariffs only cause transitory inflation…..which is ironic because they wouldn’t raise rates because of they insisted The inflation bill would be transitory.
If you don’t know enough about all the good Charlie Kirk brought to the World, I suggest you research him. He was a loving, caring person who only wanted to debate ideas. He was getting the Country to focus on ideas again, not hate. The left has become filled with hate enough to kill. It is disgusting behavior. They loot, burn and kill when they wish. And only get rewarded for their terrible behavior.
The media profits from the terrible……..
The Media in this Country must be better. The fostering of hate must stop.
LikeLike
Once again Trump’s deals have put a 15% tariff on others with zero on us. Let’s see how that works out. I did not dismiss Kirk and his good works. Sorry you got that impression. I have said for years that the Fed has mismanaged monetary policy from Bernanke forward. Now I am wary about increased inflation. I still say that unemployment reflects the tariffs and the government layoffs and would be lessened with a change in policy. But we will see. My major concern is that if Trump is wrong the democrats will retake the House and possibly the Senate at the midterms.
LikeLike
I like the illustration today . So , DDE – it should not surprise you that I deflected social heated conversation about Mr Kirk, by saying we can always find common ground..
Mr. Kirk is known for mentioning his pets. And I’m told he appeared in pet food commercials. So I’m going with his dog(s) will miss him. DOG=GOD…
One comment I recall: Mr Kirk’s nastiest defender admitted he didn’t really know Mr. Kirk’s ideas- but was angry at the attacks. To which I replied, was it so hard to read the hate, and know yourself?
LikeLike
First of all, I was saddened but drawn, to pick up the weekly, a source of your essays, and find your column no longer there. Despite your editor’s opinions, I always felt better when he mentioned a death and said he didn’t know if they were Dem or Rep , but was a good friend & loved the country. This edition he mentioned someone who was a great person, I’m sure. But she is mentioned only because she was a rock- solid Republican…
Duly noted that the fascist media only recognizes Red deaths. AND only respects dependable Red columnists…
This spring TN Farm Bureau mentioned that tariffs would bring business to local farmers- at least during growing season. Tariffs would hit supermarkets this fall. .
Not so fast said National Farm Bureau. Your equipment, fertilizer, magical potions are fm foreigners- tariffs already farm- grown…
The National Farm Bureau isn’t sure about tariffs, is now angry about MAHA, farmers left out of the food debate. And have delivered an agenda to Trump. I’ll comment about MAHA as I follow the TFB news.
LikeLike
I was writing for the Focus because the publisher at first wanted his readers to read my point of view. I enjoyed it but it was done for fun and not for profit. That’s the reason I blog. But it is not a one way street. That’s why I enjoy your comments and those of drummer, DDE and all the others.
LikeLiked by 1 person