Are the democrats really in disarray?

Are the democrats really in disarray?

I don’t know why anyone pays political prognosticators. Those folk are just stealing money. It has been all the rage to say tha the democrat party is in total disarray and disintegrating before our very eyes. In March, the Hill had an article entitled “Disarry doesn’t come close to the describing it – Democrats are disintegrating.” PJ Media had the headline “Democratic party disarray far worse that you can imagine.” It said “The democratic party is struggling. In every way a political party can be dysfunctional, the democrats are careening toward an implosion. Riven by poisonous factionalism, running out of cash and devoid of purpose and plan, the oldest political party inn te Western World is falling apart right before our eyes.” 

There are countless others with the same theme. Don’t believe this nonsense. These elections were a rout. New York City just elected a mayor on the far left fringe of the democrat party. No republican of any stature ran for the office, probably deeming it beyond salvaging. A million Jews live in New York City. Having Mamdani as mayor is like having Lester Maddox as governor of Georgia – except that Maddox had had a job when he was elected. Anyway Lee Zeldin is EPA director and is worrying about nationwide pollution rather than that located within New York City. New Jersey and Virginia have elected two perfectly awful democrats over two outstanding republicans. Virginia even elected as attorney general the democrat who had fantasized about killing republicans and their children. California voted to basically evict the few republicans from its congressional delegation. Pennsylvania voted to keep the three democrat supreme court “justices” who tend to make up the law as they see fit. Is this a party in disarray, a party imploding and falling apart? Only in your dreams. 

Do you think that this is the anti-Trump backlash? Well if it is, it has proven to be a winner for the democrats. I had once characterized the republicans as celebrating a touchdown while spiking the ball before crossing the goal line. I know that the narrative is that the democrat party is now being run by wild eyed left wing communists. But is it? Yes the party has moved more to the left just as the republicans have moved more to the right. But although those on the left will yell that all republicans are now a bunch of Nazis (I hate that word) and those on the right will yell all democrats are now a bunch of Commies, neither is even close to being correct. Yes Mamdani (like Bernie and AOC) are card carrying socialists who want more government control private enterprise. But Virginia’s Spanberger and New Jersey’s Sherrill are no communists. The relevant question is whether the bulk of the elected democrats and their supporters want the means of production in government hands? Not the democrats that I know. Ironically, Trump has actually done it more than any democrat with his government having equity stakes in private companies. He has actually vetoed decisions made by CEOs. Trump has tried to dictate price setting by the pharmaceuticals. So is Trump a socialist? Does this mean that the majority of elected republicans and their voters want a government takeover of private enterprise? Not hardly.

The democrats have held together their caucus in both the House and the Senate. If they were imploding then don’t you think that you would see schisms there? Instead, in a bill to pay the military, they presented an almost united front in the House and Senate. Of course, John Fetterman voted to fund the military and he was joined by the two democrats from my home state of Georgia, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. Why? Because Georgia is home to around 100,000 active duty and retired military personnel and their families. Ossoff is up for reelection and is considered vulnerable despite having accumulated an impressive war chest. There was no way that he was going to vote against that bill. The Senate democrats have hung united (with the exception of Fetterman) behind Chuck Schumer in the silly government shutdown and showing no signs of unraveling.

This is hardly a party imploding and disintegrating. I still think that there is a greater than 50-50 chance that the democrats will take back the House in the midterms. Call it Trump fatigue. The tariffs are not a political winner. Millions voted for Trump because of the Biden inflation and now that has become the Trump inflation. Isn’t it ironic that the main theme running through every one of the democrat campaigns is affordability? Wasn’t that one of the reasons that Trump was elected. 

Trump dominates the news with his immigration policies, tariff threats, military threats, blowing up narco boats, foreign policy moves, government shutdown, coffee and beef prices, firing of federal workers, expanding the scope of executive power and even the White House ballroom and the demolition of the East Wing. His approval rating is around 39% and his disapproval rating is around 58 percent. The shutdown is not helping him – but its not helping the democrats either. A pox on both of their houses!

Will Trump’s dismal ratings redound to republicans running in the midterms? We will have to see. Historically the party in power loses around 20 seats in the House in the midterms. Given Trump’s ratings, every democrat is going to tie their republican opponent to Trump. Of course, in some districts Trump will be an asset rather than a liability but those districts are solidly republican and are not likely to flip regardless of who is in the White House. Consider that Trump carried 230 congressional districts while Harris carried 205. Let’s assume that the 205 carried by Harris are “safe” democrat seats. In the 230 carried by Trump, 55 were by margins of 55 percent or more. Let’s call these “safe” republican seats. That would leave at most 185 seats that are up for grabs. The question then is whether these seats are currently being occupied by incumbents who will likely hold those seats regardless. But don’t you think that of that 185, there is a positive probability that 20 of them might flip? I do.

To quote the Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.