The coming midterm disaster for the republicans

The coming midterm disaster for the republicans

Note: In response to the president’s remarks regarding the death of Rob Reiner, Louisiana’s John Kennedy said “I think a wise man once said nothing. Why? Because he was a wise man. I think President Trump should have said nothing. I think when the president says these sorts of things, it detracts from his policy achievements.”

The fact that the House just overturned one of Trump’s executive orders is the clearest sign to date that the president may be losing his grip on some of the republicans in congress. Don’t be surprised if soon those seeking reelection in contested districts don’t start distancing themselves from the president. Much has been written about the election results in Virginia, New Jersey and the congressional race in middle Tennessee. Democrats also won two statewide races in Georgia and flipped a state senate seat in Athens, Ga – a district won soundly by Trump and elected a mayor in Miami. 

I wrote that I thought the republicans would lose at least 20 House seats in the midterms. It may even approach the 47 seats they lost in 1958 or even the record 63 seats lost by the democrats in Obama’s second term in 2010. Historically, the party of the presidents with job approvals below 50 percent average a loss of 37 seats in the midterms. Even when the approval is above 50% the average lost is 14 seats. President Trump’s approval rating has fallen as low as 31%. Although there may be circumstances that might raise it, I doubt if his approval will approach 50% by election time. 

A case in point is the Obamacare subsidies enacted on a temporary basis during Covid. The sainted Milton Friedman once said that there was nothing more permanent than a temporary government program. He may be right. Americans have gotten used to the subsidies and now face a stunning increase in their premiums. Those premiums will on average double for 24 million Americans on Obamacare. In a classic case of herding cats, the republicans have had plenty of time to come up with a plan to soften the impending increases. But no. Every proposal has failed while the democrats watch with glee. They probably are thinking that a failure to extend the subsidies will guarantee them the takeover of the House and likely flipping the Senate too. How about a Senator Jasmine Crockett, ya’ll? 

I know Trump is saying that “affordability” is a democrat hoax. But affordability is real and health care is one of the three along with housing, food and energy. The core of Trump’s MAGA party is the working class who are at the forefront of affordability. Want to bet if they stay MAGA in the midterms if their health premiums skyrocket? Is it too much to ask that the republicans just agree to extend the subsidies (which I oppose) through 2026 to take the issue off the table until after the elections? Polling shows that 72 percent of republicans enrolled in Obamacare plans support the continuation of the subsidies (no surprise there). How do you think these folk will vote if they lose the subsidy? One study finds “In the 10 most competitive districts in the last election, the margin of victory was fewer than 6,000 votes. There are at least 27,000 ACA Marketplace enrollees in each of these districts.” Oops.

Senator Susan Collins who always seems to be the most vulnerable republican running for reelection introduced a bill with Ohio’s Bernie (MAGA) Moreno to extend the subsidies for two years but with income caps and the elimination of zero-premium plans. It failed to pass the Senate. Collins along with Missouri’s Josh Hawley and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan all voted with the democrats for a three year extension. It failed to garner the 60 votes needed in the senate and lost 51-47. Rand Paul has a plan that is market based. It doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being enacted either.

The House has its own proposal about to be introduced that does not extend the subsidies. I won’t go through all the details here but the bill is primarily aimed at reducing premiums for lower income enrollees. Experts say that the bill won’t pass the Senate because there is no reason why the democrats should come to the republicans rescue by getting to the 60 vote threshold. House majority leader Mike Johnson has said “Since its inception, premium costs have skyrocketed, networks have shrunk, and the system has become bloated, inefficient, and riddled with waste, fraud, and abuse.” What! The fraud is not from just the Somalis? Although the republican House bill addresses the “waste, fraud, and abuse” in Obamacare it has no chance of getting any democrat support. But you have to admire the democrats. They enacted Obamacare with zero republican support and now the republicans will get the blame when the subsidies lapse. Bravo!

So for me the question is not whether the House will flip or even by how much, it is will the Senate flip too?