The Trump Doctrine

The Trump Doctrine

I am not an expert on foreign affairs so this post may be far off base. If so then please correct me. Some say that President Trump seeks to re-assert the Monroe Doctrine. I don’t agree. The doctrine as articulated by President James Monroe warned the European powers that any effort to exert influence or control in the western hemisphere would not be tolerated and would be viewed as a threat to US security. The United States would not interfere in the affairs of the European countries and their colonies. What Trump is different. The Europeans are not interfering in this hemisphere. But Trump is asserting US supremacy by interfering with our southern neighbors, threatening them and disrupting our traditional allies to the north. This is not the Monroe Doctrine. It is uniquely the Trump Doctrine.

In his inaugural address the president said “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” So how did he do his first year. First, he has conducted a trade war against all the nations of the world (except Russia) – do trade wars count? He erected trade barriers with our erstwhile Canadian “allies” and said Canada could get rid of his tariffs by becoming the fifty-first state. He keeps talking about acquiring Greenland and even hinted at taking it by military force. He appointed the governor of Louisiana (?) as envoy to Greenland who promptly said that his position was to “to make Greenland a part of the US.” Naturally, this brought howls of protest from Greenlanders and the Danish government. The Danish foreign minister said “I am very upset about the appointment and the statement, which I find completely unacceptable.” Trump couches his desire by saying that Greenland is vital to US national security. Denmark, an ally, now calls the US a threat to its national security.

To the south during the past year he has threatened Mexico over drugs, illegal immigration and imposed tariffs. He threatened Panama over Chinese control of the Panama Canal. He is rapidly building up US forces in the eastern Caribbean and hints at air strikes and even a ground incursion into Venezuela. He has the navy seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and has shut down Venezuelan airspace. So far the navy has sunk several boats and killed 95 people accused of running drugs. But Trump recently said that he might expand the drug strikes to Columbia and Mexico, even saying that he might even send ground troops into Mexico.

The shutting down of Venezuela has had the consequence of pushing Cuba, which relies on Venezuelan oil, to the brink of collapse says the Wall Street Journal. So pressuring Maduro has the added result of perhaps forcing a regime change in Cuba as well. By why all of a sudden this outsized interest in Venezuela? First, the president said it was drugs and their threat to our national security. All this over cocaine when the drug crisis is fentanyl from China via Mexico? Perhaps the president gave us the real reason when he said that Venezuela “stole” US oil and assets and he wants them back. This refers to the nationalization of the oil industry by the Venezuelan government under Hugo Chavez in 2007. Not coincidentally Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels. So is all this Venezuelan brouhaha really about the oil and not so much about human trafficking, terrorism and illegal drugs? I am surprised the president doesn’t just say he wants Venezuela to be the 52^ndstate (Canada being the 51^st).

While the Monroe Doctrine told the Europeans that they could not interfere in the affairs of any country in this hemisphere it also said that the US would leave Europe to the Europeans. That hasn’t really happened given all our troops in Europe and being a member of NATO. However, what Trump has done is to threaten not to support NATO countries if they did not meet their own military commitment. He has acted as though he would end the supply of arms and intelligence to Ukraine and pivot toward Putin. This has had the effect of forcing Europe to strengthen its commitment to Ukraine, increase its aid to the beleaguered country and rebuild its own military forces to counter Russia.

I give the president high marks for the Gaza cease fire and the return of the hostages although I am uncertain as to what happens next. The president has all sorts of lofty ideas about turning Gaza into a paradise but those plans are just dreams. The reality on the ground still looks bleak. The president also authorized the B-2 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and although reports of success is mixed, it still looks likes Iran has suffered a setback in its rush to make a nuclear bomb. The president has been rather aggressive in seeking to neutralize Iran’s proxies in the region with mixed success with the bombing of the Houthis. I am not sure what is going on with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Syria, Lebanon and other players in the region but it seems that the US is trying to broker peace and form alliances. This administration seeks to be more committed to Israel than either Obama or Biden despite differences in the conduct of the Hamas war.

The administration is involved in more countries than previous administrations. There was even an Armenian-Azerbaijan peace agreement over the never ending conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.  There are peace efforts underway in Africa with the conflicts in the Sudan, Nigeria, Congo and Uganda. The administration had the military conduct strikes against the Nigerian Muslim militants who are terrorizing Christian communities. The president tweeted “The United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria. I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight there was.” I wonder what all those Trump haters who yell “racist!” at every opportunity have to say about that? He has also bombed Yemen and Somalia.

However, it appears that the administration has lost interest in aiding Africa economically with its imposition of devastating tariffs on countries like Lesotho. In fact the tariffs in Africa and the ending of humanitarian aid amount to economic warfare and stand in contrast to its peace making efforts around the globe. Coupled with Trump’s attacks on legal immigration – except for Afrikaners – it appears that the president’s end game is the isolation of America – I called it Fortress America – within a world of fewer armed conflicts.

As to Asia, it looks like the administration is not as focused on China as it merits. Yes it has imposed high tariffs but it has also allowed the sale of some high powered chips and soft pedaled on Tik Tok. It seems to still support Taiwan and has just approved a significant sale of military materiel. It is also important that Japan is becoming more vocal against China and its new prime minister has refused to back down in the face of threats from Beijing. I think ultimately the president would like to minimize both threats from Russia on Europe and China on all of Asia through economic cooperation on nonsensitive matters. That might work with the Russians but probably not with the Chinese.

I do not know of any other administration so hyperactive in the foreign sphere. But this is certainly not a replay of the Monroe Doctrine because this administration sticks it nose into everything everywhere. He has attempted to broker peace between India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, Rwanda and Congo, Ethiopia and Egypt, and end the civil war in Sudan. One cannot say that each involvement is in the interest of national security. Surely our national security is not threatened by Nagorno-Karabakh.

This is Trump’s own doctrine and I am not certain what motivates it. Some have called this “America First” but that does not explain the intervention all over the globe in affairs that have little to do with the US. It is an administration characterized by threats, coercions, isolation yet interventions. Perhaps it is the quest for the Nobel Peace prize – but sword rattling in the Caribbean works against that. But regardless, this is the most hyperactive administration ever both domestically and in foreign affairs. This president is only through his first year. If he keeps this up he is on his way to being one of the most influential presidents in history.

So how to characterize the Trump doctrine? In a word – muscular.