How many seats will the republicans lose in the mid-terms?

How many seats will the republicans lose in the mid-terms?

In the past 80 years, the president’s party has not lost seats in the off-year elections only four times, 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002. If the president’s approval rating was below 50%, the party lost seats every time. Even if the president’s approval rating was above 50%, the party lost seats seven times. Currently, there are 217 republicans, 214 democrats and 4 vacancies in the House. As close to you can get to a slam dunk in politics is that the republicans would lose the House even if Trump had an approval rating above 50 percent. But with Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent and falling, the only question is how many seats will the republicans lose? On average, with an approval rating less than 50% the president’s party has lost 37 seats. The previous record in modern elections is the 63 seats lost by the democrats in 2010. 

Given the evenness of the divide in the American political scene, the republican loses might not be that large. However, with all the gerrymandering going on out there in Texas, California and Virginia there will be some shifting of seats anyway. So be prepared for the democrats to take back chairmanships of all the committees and for Hakeem Jeffries to be speaker. Welcome back Maxine Waters! Also be prepared for a rash of subpoenas, indictments and impeachments. The Trump agenda will grind to a halt in the House and will only be furthered by executive orders. And expect each executive order to be contested in the House and in the courts. You think we have chaos now? Just wait until January 2027. Would a democrat House force the president to be more presidential, compromise and become less belligerent? Once can only hope but I am not optimistic. Trump is likely to become more belligerent.

Even if the president all of a sudden decided to become “presidential” it is still certain that the House would flip although it might be by a smaller margin. While the public endorsed control at the border, the public does not like any of the president’s current initiatives. The public does not like the tariffs. Polling shows that 56 percent of Americans say that tariffs hurt the economy. It is no surprise that 86 percent of the democrats feel this way. But 66 percent of republicans and 66 percent of independents also say that tariffs harm the economy. More telling white men without college degrees, a key voting constituency for Trump, 51 percent disapprove of the tariffs. The public does not like the tactics of Homeland Security. Cabinet members are viewed unfavorably. Pam (Blondie) Bondi is the most disliked with the highest favorable rating of only 26 percent. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s is 50 percent and may be falling given his agencies actions on vaccines. Vice President JD Vance’s unfavorable rating is 52 percent. 

The president’s approval ratings on the economy are a dismal 31 percent. Remember “It’s the economy stupid?” Well despite Trump always saying “It’s Biden’s fault” only the diehard MAGA zealots pretend to believe this – and I doubt it they really do either. The economic numbers spell disaster for the republicans in this election regardless of what lipstick Trump and his reporters are trying to put on this pig. 

So what would happen if the president stopped tweeting? Stopped threatening? Stop bellicosity? Stopped his childish behavior? What would happen if he dissolved all tariffs and quit weaponizing his agencies against his multitude of enemies? Supposed he concentrated on pro-growth policies of aiding small businesses, continuing deregulation, trusting markets, and pursuing American greatness through free enterprise? Supposed he stopped calling all republicans who disagree with even a sliver of his policies “RINO.” Would that improve those republican chances of being reelected? Maybe. But of course, all that assumes that the president actually cares about the republican party when he acts like he only cares about Donald Trump.

But the one thing he cannot do and will not do is to emulate Ronald Reagan. Everyone now seems to love Ronald Reagan but the Gipper legalized three million illegals and deported fewer in his eight years in office than Trump did in 6 months. Someone said that Reagan figured it was better to enforce the border and to provide a path to legalization of those already here than to treat every undocumented grandmother and restaurant worker as the equivalent of a Tren de Aragua gangster. 

Trump cannot do the same. He wants all illegals gone regardless of their contributions to the country. He wants to shut down legal immigration as well. He has terminated TPS and severely restricted H1-B visas. He has banned visitors from 19 countries and put restrictions on 20 more. Trump has boxed himself into a corner where if he became more like Reagan, his MAGA zealots who now make excuses for his bad behavior will likely turn on him.