The Taiwan Rope-a-Dope

The Taiwan Rope-a-Dope

President Xi is said to have given President Trump a warning on Taiwan. There is much talk about the “Thucydides Trap” named after the Greek historian. Thucydides contended a rising power – in his case Athens – put fear in the declining established power – Sparta – which led to the Peloponnesian War. Xi apparently envisions China as the rising power and the US as the power in decline with the possibility of war over Taiwan. Xi is warning Trump not to interfere if China decides to blockade Taiwan or seize it or its islands by force.

I hope the president told Xi to go pound sand. Secretary of State Rubio said “We always make clear our position and we move on to other topics” and that it would be a “terrible mistake” if China were to try to take Taiwan by force. I think that China is doing a Taiwan rope-a-dope – with the dope being us. There is very little chance that China will do something as stupid as invading Taiwan.

China is a country in decline. Its economy is a mess. It is too dependent upon exports (hear that President Trump?), the country is fast aging, its population is in sharp decline due to its disastrous one child policy. Its military leadership is in disarray as Xi has moved to fire its leaders (hear that Pete Hegseth?). The worry is that Xi may actually try to take Taiwan to save his leadership much like Putin has tried to take Ukraine. But Xi needs to heed the lesson that the Russians have painfully learned because Taiwan will be a tougher nut to crack than Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, the Chinese cannot amass 500,000 troops on the Taiwanese border and walk across. Instead they will have to deal with the Taiwan Strait which at its narrowest point is 90 miles wide. 

The strait is one of the world’s most treacherous waters swept by seasonal monsoons and typhoons. These storms provide only a narrow window in which a waterborne invasion could be launched. The Taiwanese would be ready with its anti-ship missile systems. There is little chance that the Chinese will be able to get its army and navy across that strait except at a horrendous loss of life. And recall, no war has ever been won solely by aircraft and/or missiles and drones. We are learning that lesson in Iran right now. Taiwan has considerable air defenses and will be able to deal with Chinese airpower. Its submarines are capable of warding off the Chinese navy and sinking any troop ships. Of course the Chinese may attempt to send in troops by air but the likelihood of reaching Taiwan over those 90 miles would be slim and none and end in disaster.

Even if somehow a Chinese amphibious landing were accomplished, the Taiwan coastline presents a daunting obstacle. It is a natural fortress. Only the western coastline is a feasible landing site and here the water is too shallow for ships to come close in to disembark men and materiel making the ships sitting ducks for missiles and mines. The eastern coast is lined with imposing cliffs making large scale landings impossible. The Taiwanese not surprisingly have fortified all potential landing sites with anti-landing spikes, mines and missiles. You think Normandy was bad even with all the deception? Well it took 7,000 ships and 850,000 troops back then. Now with the spy satellites and all the technology, there will be no deception and no surprises. How many ships and men will China be willing to sacrifice in a likely fruitless effort to invade the island?

Lastly, the interior terrain of the island itself is daunting. The western plains are narrow, creating bottlenecks that limit the maneuverability of any army creating choke points and ideal locations for ambushes. In the east are mountain ranges that are over 12,000 feet, acting as formidable barrier and perfect for guerrilla warfare. Xi is no fool. He can saber rattle all he wants. But on Taiwan he is full of it and a failed invasion would likely end his career. So like Trump, he is full of empty threats and bluster. Taiwan is his rope-a-dope having us and the world concentrate on the island when his true intentions lie elsewhere. I have said this before: while we are looking at Taiwan, the Chinese have easier pickings at Siberia and Manchuria. China needs Lake Baikal more than it needs Taiwan.

Xi undoubtedly will keep feigning toward Taiwan and warn Trump not to continue selling Taiwan defensive armaments. Trump should tell him to pound sand and continue to approve arms sales to Taiwan. Of course, the Taiwanese can go elsewhere but Trump acts as though he needs the money. Trump though is no real friend of Taiwan slapping a 32 percent tariff on their exports – save semiconductors. The tariff is now 20 percent. It should be zero.

If truth be told, China needs the US more than we need China. Trump should say that and mean it. Trump should tell Xi that in order to restore good relations China should quit threatening Taiwan. To eliminate any tariffs, China needs to become a team player in world markets and in world politics. He should put his foot down on Chinese spying, hacking and intellectual theft. He should offer trade agreements that benefit both countries and threaten to withdraw them along with imposing punitive tariffs and financial restraints on China if they act up.

China, like Russia, is a poor third world bully with nuclear weapons. They will remain third world so long as they embrace communism and depress the freedom of their people. Trump could even offer to let Chinese EVs into the country (more on that later) in order to give the American public access to low cost automobiles. The caveat is that any Chinese product imported into the country cannot have spying apparatus embedded in it. That goes for all electronics, solar panels and of course EVs. Any violation would be met immediately with an embargo of all Chinese goods and a seizure of all Chinese assets. Trump is a bully. Its time for him to bully China.