The Memorandum of (Mis)Understanding has expired. What’s next?

First breaking news! My son alerted me that the Navy is considering renaming the carrier, Doris Miller after Trump! ABC News, August 21st, 2026, “Navy mulls stripping Black war hero’s name from aircraft carrier for Trump, sources.” https://abcnews.com/Politics/navy-mulls-stripping-black-war-heros-aircraft-carrier/story?id=135836486

This is beyond the pale and totally outrageous. Even Trump supporters should be ashamed of this unprecedented action. I hope the republicans in the Congress have the guts to block this action. I don’t know who initiated this move but it ranks among the worse ideas of this administration. 

Now the memorandum of (mis)understanding.

The Memorandum of (Mis)Understanding with Iran officially expired on August 17. Unofficially, it expired two weeks after it was signed. Signed on June 17, Iran started firing on ships that ignored its mandated shipping route on July 8, and the US resumed bombing immediately. Israel, which was never party to the agreement, ignored its terms as well and kept up strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.

Some experts have said the agreement was doomed by its own imprecise language. The real question is why the language was imprecise to begin with. One expert argued the wording implied Iran had control of the strait. The MOU itself committed Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,” and further stated: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.”

As one expert put it, “no one should be surprised that Iran views that as explicitly giving them an enduring role controlling passage through Hormuz.” Sure enough, once Iran and Oman began talks over control of the strait, Trump responded by threatening to “bomb the s…t” out of Oman if it struck a deal with Iran — despite Oman being one of our own Gulf allies. Which raises the obvious question: who wrote and agreed to this language in the first place?

Trump then said he’d make the strait a US territory outright, “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” Iran’s response was swift and pointed. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, posted the following on X:

I asked Claude to translate it:

First post (Aug 14): “Trump said that after Iran’s defeat, he will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz to be under America’s dominion! The Strait of Hormuz cannot be claimed with a tweet, nor with a warship, an aircraft, an order, or an election speech. Iran is not one to be intimidated by threats, nor to be awed by a show of force. (1)”

Second post (reply): “Accept reality for once: up to this point, you have suffered strategic defeats and heavy setbacks! The Strait of Hormuz has been and will remain Iranian. This strait will only close and reopen by Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of [your] defeat and abandon these illusions, Iran will continue the siege on you. (2)”

Who’s sieging whom? I don’t know who is advising the president, but at this point all the bellicosity is wearing thin. Maybe it’s Mark Levin pushing for a military solution and the destruction of Kharg Island and Iran’s infrastructure. But even with all the threats, there’s little evidence the president actually means to follow through. At the start of this war I said no war has ever been won by bombing alone — even bombing “into oblivion,” as the president threatened. No boots on the ground, no victory, and we are not about to put boots on the ground in Iran.

So what’s left? The president says he’ll keep leaning on economic pressure to weaken and isolate Iran, which has already lived under heavy US sanctions for decades. The current blockade has been running for three months, yet Iran’s propaganda machine still sounds like it’s winning, not losing, whatever the president claims. Whether the blockade will actually succeed is doubtful, and many experts share that doubt — the only real cheerleaders – in addition to Levin – I can find are writers at the Daily Signal and Fox News. Experts like the University of Chicago’s Robert Pape remain skeptical. Defense Secretary Hegseth has said the US military can sustain a naval presence in the Middle East “indefinitely” to enforce the blockade. The real question is whether the US has the will to actually do that. Trump, in a “let them eat cake” moment, put it this way: “For you to pay a tiny, little bit more for your gasoline, just remember it’s so ‘a very evil country’ can’t have a nuclear weapon. When you have to pay a little bit more, you’re at $4, it’s OK — I mean, I will never apologize, I did the right thing. You just have to remember that what we’re doing is a great service for the world.”

Trump is betting that economic pressure will force Iran to surrender and has announced Operation Economic Fury (who names these things?) threatening severe financial penalties on any nation that assists Iran in evading sanctions. Treasury secretary Bessent said “If you insist on doing business with them, then the U.S. Treasury and U.S. government will put its full might and force against you.”The campaign is targeting illicit oil networks, terror financiers, and global banks that continue to facilitate Tehran’s activities. Do I hear China? Well Bessent has said that the Treasury has already issued warnings to two major Chinese banks. What remains to be seen is Trump’s resolve. Russia, China and North Korea are all partners with Iran. Will Trump be resolute this time, or will there be another TACO moment?

Meanwhile, oil producers are already finding other routes to export their crude. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said the Strait of Hormuz will become “irrelevant” within two years, predicting 50 to 70 percent of the energy that currently transits the waterway will eventually move through underground pipelines, leaving the strait to become “just another body of water.” Bessent also says the administration’s economic policies have already pushed Iran’s currency into “free fall” and inflation into triple digits.

We don’t have two years. We’ll have to wait and see whether the economic damage we are inflicting outweighs the economic damage we’re taking — and who caves first.