Author: haroldblackphd

Trump said what?

The president who is fond of hearing his own voice is at it again, demanding Iran’s total surrender to a war he says we have already won, or else he will bomb their civilian infrastructure back to the stone age. Here is what he tweeted

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” “But, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ Trump said that attacking Iran’s infrastructure would be “in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.'”

This is a no-no. Attacking civilian infrastructure is nothing less than a war crime. I wonder if this is the type of order that Mark Kelley and the other democrats urged the military not to obey. I would think that there would be some resistance amongst the senior officers to conduct such an operation. Recall that the admiral over the southern command resigned when ordered to attack the speedboats in the Eastern Caribbean – an action of questioned legality. One observer said of Trump’s threat: “Threatening to obliterate a nation’s power grid, oil infrastructure and water supply to coerce its government is not a negotiating tactic; it is text-book collective punishment and a war crime.” 

One thing is for certain, if Trump makes the military attack Iran’s civil infrastructure, all hell will break loose in the Gulf. Iran will start to target the civilian infrastructure of our Gulf allies and in Israel. Desalination plants are crucial in the Middle East with almost every country being dependent upon them for fresh water. However, Iran is less dependent on desalination plants for drinking water than its Gulf neighbors. Iran gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and underground aquifers. But hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, putting individual systems that supply water to millions within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. Without them, major cities — such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates or Doha, Qatar’s capital — could not sustain their current populations.  So a word to the president: don’t.

The president also said that he wants to pick Iran’s next leader much as he did in Venezuela. Trump said “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Not surprisingly, the Iranian Leadership Council told him to go pound sand saying “The great Iranian nation will never allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs and its right to determine its own destiny.” Anyway, who would Trump pick? Well the president said sensitive “Most of the people we had in mind are dead.”

The president has also said that he wants Iran’s oil. “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the U.S. say: ‘Why are you doing that?’” Sen. Lindsey (Bomb them All) Graham (R-S.C.) is pushing Trump to take Kharg Island, through which Iran exports 80 to 90 percent of its oil, to cripple Tehran’s regime. Trump said “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” Well then, why all the marines and airborne troops? Huh?

Earlier I asked why do we have all those installations and troops in the Middle East. Maybe its to keep the Chinese and the Russians out. But more than likely it is to protect the billions of dollars of US corporate investment in the region. Apparently most, if not all, of the Gulf states are incapable of warding off Iran. There is no longer a Saddam Hussein in Iraq to balance off the Iranians. Recall that they fought an eight year war that killed over 500,000 people as Hussein tried to prevent Ruhollah Khomeini from exporting Iran’s revolution over to Iraq. In addition to protecting US corporate interests, we are also there to protect Israel. To that end, given the destruction of US military installations and assets in the region, why not relocate our military to Israel? Wouldn’t that serve the same purposes? Just warn Iran that any invasion of the Gulf allies will be met with severe force that will once again pound the country’s military and kill their leaders.

A “failed” Treasury action. Birthright comes to the Court

A “failed” Treasury auction

We just had a failed Treasury auction.  The Treasury has specific financing needs and hopes to sell its securities at a high price which translates into a low interest rate. A failed auction is not one when the Treasury cannot sell all its securities but when the sale is at prices lower than anticipated making interest rates higher than the Treasury would like. Failed auctions seemed to be getting more frequent as the markets start to reach a saturation point for Treasury securities used to finance the debt. Another reason for a failed auction is an increase in inflationary expectations where buyers demand higher yields to protect their real returns.

A case in point was the latest auction of 2 year Treasurys. The Treasury had to raise $70 billion and it did so but at lower prices and higher yields than it wanted. The latest auction resulted in yields climbing 9.6 basis points to 3.926%, the highest yield in eight months. Trump of course wants Treasury yields down, lowering the cost of financing the debt, but his policies are making the opposite happen. First, the tariffs resulted in inflationary expectations rising, creating higher yields and not this first auction. His war on Iran pushed rates even higher. The market is saying that increased energy prices resulting from the war will translate into higher inflation. In order to preserve their real rates of return on the Treasurys, the market demands higher yields.

The next auction is a $70 billion 5 year Treasury auction. It will be interesting to see what happens then. I expect another failed auction and higher rates on the five year Treasurys. All total the Treasury has $10 trillion in debt coming due next year. Again , it will be able to refinance the debt but at what price?

Birthright citizenship

On the Supreme Courts’ docket is Trump’s challenge to birthright citizenship. I am not going to go into great detail again but at its core is the 14^th Amendment which conveys citizenship to everyone born in this country except the children of diplomats. The amendment says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” On his first day in office during this term, Trump issued an executive order saying that the government would not recognize as citizens children born here if a parent were not a citizen or a lawful permanent resident. He was immediately sued – and lost. Thus, far in challenges to the executive order, Trump has lost each time in six lower courts, regardless of the judges’ ideology. A Reagan-appointed judge said I can’t remember another case where the question presented is as clear as this one Is. This is a blatantly unconstitutional order.”

I expect that the court will rule unanimously against Trump. But I can be wrong. There is no doubt that the three liberals on the court (Kagan, Sotomayor and Brown Jackson) will be opposed but indications are that given rulings in the past the other justices will also. Nevertheless, I have been wrong before. Recall that Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh voted to keep Trump’s tariffs in direct conflict to earlier rulings where they defended the major questions doctrine. That doctrine says that when the executive branch seeks to wield significant regulatory power, it must first point to an unambiguous delegation of such power by Congress to the executive. In the case of the 14^thAmendment if the so-called conservative members of the court are consistent, they will vote against Trump’s executive order. 

Of course, Trump will have a cow. On fact he has had enough cows to have an entire herd – which would help in the beef shortage. He has harangued against the court rulings against his wishes to expand the power of the executive and was particularly spiteful in the tariff ruling. He then said “They sicken me, because they’re bad for our country.” Trump is expecting to lose here too as he said the court “will find a way to come to the wrong conclusion” on birthright citizenship—an outcome, he said, that other nations would celebrate.

Of course, all eyes will be on Clarence Thomas the descendant of slaves who – like mine – were given citizenship by the 14^th Amendment. In a 2022 case about federal benefits for Puerto Rico residents, Thomas argued that the citizenship clause promises equal protection for all citizens. Though birthright citizenship wasn’t the main issue in the case, Thomas would have understood the implications of his argument on future litigation over the birthright issue.

Regarding the major questions doctrine, it seems clear that on that basis the court should rule unanimously against Trump. The president has argued that birthright citizenship was meant only to give citizenship to the ex-slaves and their children and not to illegal immigrants. He is wrong. If the congress had wanted that to be so, then it would have written it into the amendment. It chose not to do so. debate on the 14^th Amendment, Senator Edgar Cowan (R-PA) said “Is it proposed that the people of California are to remain quiescent while they are overrun by a flood of immigration of the Mongol race? Are they to be immigrated out of house and home by Chinese?” Doesn’t that sound like Stephen Miller? But the Senate in a way agreed with Cowan that the result would be that those (Mongol) children born here would indeed be citizens and should be. Here is what Sen. John Conness (R–CA) replied “I beg my honorable friend from Pennsylvania to give himself no further trouble on account of the Chinese in California or on the Pacific coast. We are entirely ready to accept the provision proposed in this constitutional amendment, that the children born here of Mongolian parents shall be declared by the Constitution of the United States to be entitled to civil rights and to equal protection before the law with others.”

So Trump is wrong (again).

Iran strikes back. DOJ’s Jerome Powell witch hunt.

Iran strikes back

For a country that has lost the war, the Iranians are sure doing a lot of damage. They have targeted US installations and energy facilities of those Gulf states that are allied with us. Iranian missiles and drones have inflicted billions of dollars damage to highly sophisticated military equipment, US facilities, radar installations and aircraft. Battle damage and replacement of losses over the first three weeks of the war has been put at $2.9 billion. Many of the 13 military bases used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Troops are reported to be now living in hotels and office spaces. Iran said that it will target those locations as well. The Iranians said “We are forced to identify and target the Americans. Therefore, it is better not to shelter them in hotels and to stay away from their locations.”

Iran has also attacked radar, communications and air defense systems in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including damage of the Qatari AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar at Al-Udeid Air Base. The radar, which can track several targets simultaneously, costs about $1 billion. They have also destroyed one of our 16 AWACS planes.

Iran has also targeted oil and gas infrastructure, especially in the UAE, but also Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia with hundreds of missiles and drones. The attacks have disrupted supply chains, creating uncertainty for the oil and gas and fertilizer industries as key infrastructure has been targeted or shut down. The damage is in the billions and it will take some say a couple of years to repair all the damage and to get production back to where it was before Trump attacked Iran. Israeli drones hit Iran’s Asaluyeh complex, damaging four plants that treat gas from the offshore South Pars field which straddles the maritime boundary between Iran and Qatar. Iran retaliated by hitting energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. They then hit Ras Laffan, the heart of Qatar’s energy sector, causing extensive damage. Qatar’s s liquefied natural gas facilities were then hit and production stopped. Iran has also attacked oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and led to the closure of gas facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

I am no expert but Israel has not been attacked with the same fervor as our Gulf allies which indicates to me that Iran has figured that the US would sooner capitulate if they attacked our allies and shut down the Strait of Hormuz rather than attacking Israel. In doing so Iran has not made any friends, but neither has the US as the rest of the world reels over sharp increases in energy and food prices. 

Speaking of allies, our European allies have indicated that they are our allies against Russia but not against Iran. Germany has basically said ”its not our war.” “Germany is not part of this war, and we don’t want to become a part either,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Even Trump’s buddyItalian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said “Italy is taking no part and doesn’t intend to.” Britain’s Keir Starmer denied the US military access to British bases for their initial attack on Iran even though the Iranians targeted British bases on Cyprus. Trump said “I said ‘You don’t want to do it? We’ve been with you. You’re our oldest ally and we spend a lot of money on NATO and all of these things to protect you’. I think it’s terrible. I was very surprised.” Starmer said about Trump “I’m not going to waver on this. I’m not going to back down… I’m not going to get dragged into the war… I’m not going to buckle under pressure and that’s the long and the short of it.” Trump added “Keir is no Winston Churchill.”

However, the main focus of Trump’s wrath on our NATO allies has been directed at Spain’s Pedro Sanchez who has refused to let the U.S. military use Spain’s air bases for the war. Sanchez says “In my view, this war in Iran is a big mistake for the world and therefore for the U.S.” Trump’s response was predictable “Spain has been terrible. We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.” Of course, Trump does not have the power to “cut off all trade with Spain.” Sanchez isn’t taking this seriously – The US actually has a trade surplus with Spain – nor is he taking seriously Trump’s demand to increase defense spending. Spain is the only member of NATO to reject Trump’s demand to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product. Trump had said that if the country didn’t increase defense spending then maybe the US would not come to their defense if needed. Sanchez knows this is nonsense. 

BTW, Spain did send a frigate to Cyprus to help protect the British base there prompting Karoline (Lying) Leavitt to say that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military.” Sánchez’s office responded with one word: “false.” 

More DOJ’s Powell witch hunt

Will Jeanine Pirro and DOJ actually appeal Judge Boasberg’s decision not to honor the subpoenas on Jerome Powell? They say yes even though it will delay the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh to become the new Fed chairman. But DOJ may have undercut its own case. the government itself acknowledged it has no evidence of wrongdoing by Chair Jerome Powell. In the transcript of

the initial hearing the DOJ lawyer said “We do not know at this time whether there is evidence of misconduct at the central bank. “You don’t need this grand

suspicion of illegal activity. It can be something as simple as a tip or a rumor or something that just doesn’t seem right.” Oops! I bet that lawyer is out of a job. That is an amazing admission of how frivolous this action is against Powell. Then the DOJ said that the subpoenas were not explicitly targeting Powell and were instead directed to the Fed board. What! This is new because the Board has never before been mentioned as part of the investigation. Supposedly it was Powell’s testimony to congress that triggered the investigation. The judge who obviously has been reading my blog responded “How about the White House ballroom, should that be investigated? That’s over budget.” The DOJ attorney had this astounding response “I wish we were in court for something like that, Your Honor, but today we are here on a different matter.” Again, does this attorney still have a job at DOJ?

Random Thoughts #78

Abolish TSA

The recent foolishness in not funding the TSA brought into full relief why that agency should be privatized. Reports of waiting in line for 5 hours in Atlanta and only 30 minutes in Orlando which has privatized agents should prompt the congress to let the private sector handle TSA duties. Yes I know that if TSA is privatized, slowdowns and stoppages could occur if the agents are unionized. But that may be preferred to the mess created by the congress playing in front of the cameras leaving the agents unpaid and calling in sick. At least 20 airports participate in the Transportation Security Administration’s Screening Partnership Program (SPP), which allows private companies to conduct security screening under TSA oversight. So I have two questions, why don’t all airports have this program and two why not just abolish TSA anyway? Data show that they are pretty bad at doing what they are supposed to do. There is a report that shows TSA failing to stop 95 percent of the weapons that inspectors attempted to sneak through airport screening stations as part of their regular audit program.

Markwayne Mullin – Trump’s DEI hire

I am always amused when critics of individuals who make decisions that they don’t agree with yell “DEI hire” when those individuals are not white males. Justices Sotomayor and Brown Jackson are cases in point. However, if a white male judge or justice aligned with them on an opinion no one would shout DEI hire for the white males. Sotomayor has degrees from Princeton (AB) and Yale (JD). She was a sitting judge when nominated to the court. Brown Jackson also was a sitting judge and has her degrees from Harvard where she was the editor of the Harvard Law Review and clerked for Justice Stephen Breyer. Those are credentials comparable to any on the court. Personally I think that some of their rulings are more reflective of their personal views than the law but to call them DEI hires is just a show of spite and bigotry. Even when Justice Barrett ruled in a way that the MAGA folk didn’t like, some fools called her a DEI hire too. Speaking of DEI hires, what about the new head of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin? Nothing in Mullin’s resume shows that he should even been nominated for Homeland Security. Why not Tom Homan? But after the disastrous DEI hire of Kristi Noem, Trump decided to nominate someone without a college degree and who was a native American. That way he can pander to all the MAGAs that didn’t go to college and vie for the Native American vote to boot. Mullin is a DEI hire.

Vietnam?

Here is a trivia question for you. With which country does the US have its largest trade deficit? Hint: it is not China. It is Vietnam. So in a way Trump’s disruptive trade war with China was successful – although I bet a good deal of that trade with Vietnam originated in China. Also, Trump’s trade war with Canada has resulted in Mexico displacing Canada as the largest buyer of American exports. When Trump went after China in 2018, imports from Vietnam were $49 billion. They are now $194 billion. Hey if the Germans and Japanese are now our friends and Vietnam a major trading partner, can Iran come over from the dark side as well?

Is this real money?

What are all the Trump haters going to do when his name appears on US currency? The Treasury issued this statement “In honor of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America, President Donald J. Trump’s signature will appear on future U.S. paper currency along with the Secretary of the Treasury, marking the first time in history for a sitting president.” Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary and Trump translator said “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are on a path toward unprecedented economic growth, lasting dollar dominance, and fiscal strength and stability. There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial.” What will the democrats do? Burn the currency? Ask for money that does not have Trump’s signature on it? Use bitcoin? Can I still use gold? How about barter? I bet the shrinks and Chatbox will do a booming business in freaked out college-educated white women.

Is that fast time or slow time?

The Georgia senate overwhelmingly by a vote of 45-5 passed a bill for Georgia to be on Atlantic time – hello Bermuda! Georgia will stay on daylight savings time all year round although Bermuda changes its clocks twice a year. Going to Atlantic time would mean that Georgia’s clocks would be different from all its neighbors with Florida, South Carolina, eastern Tennessee on Eastern Standard time while Alabama is on Central time. Georgia would be the only state on Atlantic Standard time and the change must be approved by the congress. I am reminded that my father told me that when he was growing up, eastern Georgia was on Eastern Standard time and western parts of the state were on Central time – much like Tennessee today. Dad said that when someone mentioned the time, the response was “Is that slow time or fast time?” Well if the state goes to Atlantic Standard. The whole state will be on slow time.

Nuke the filibuster?

The president is pushing the republicans in the senate to ditch the filibuster in order to pass the SAVE Act. Mike Lee and especially Ron Johnson are in favor. Johnson says “By ending the filibuster now, Republicans could pass important legislation that the public overwhelmingly supports, but Democrats oppose. For some inexplicable reason many of my Republican colleagues believe that maintaining the 60-vote threshold required to end a filibuster is crucial to the future of our republic. I’ll admit that the 60-vote cloture threshold has prevented many bad bills from becoming law, and that without it bad bills would become law more easily. But it also prevents good bills from getting passed.”

Johnson is no fool but he is totally wrong on this one. If I were Chuck Schumer I would have all the democrats in the senate immediately support Johnson to insure the elimination of the filibuster. Yes I know it would mean passage of the SAVE Act which Schumer despises, but think about the future, Chuck. When the day comes that the democrats have control of both houses of congress and the presidency, they can repeal the SAVE Act and then pass a bunch of stuff over the feeble objections of the republicans without the filibuster being an impediment.

Senate majority leader John Thune is smart enough to understand this. He has said “The filibuster has protected Republicans through the years, conservative principles, principles and priorities, by requiring a supermajority to get things done in the United States Senate.” Obviously, the republicans are not as smart as the democrats who got Obamacare through the senate without a filibuster. Why can’t the republicans come up with some procedural shenanigan to pass the SAVE Act? Also this is a weird hill to die on. It may not even be constitutional since the Constitution gives the states the right to determine their own election procedures. And as I detailed earlier, it attacks a problem that if real, is almost trivial in its impact.

Imagine that the SAVE Act only passes because the republicans are stupid enough to nuke the filibuster. What would that have wrought? If the democrats are back in total control what would stop them from making DC and Puerto Rico states with five new representatives and four new senators? What about bringing back the Green New Deal and proclaiming the climate a national emergency and enacting all sort of Al Gore’s endorsed acts? How about a stature codifying abortion? How about legalizing gender mutating surgery and codifying trans rights. Hello to the Equal Rights amendment! Welcome back open borders! Ban fossil fuels! Out with the SAVE Act and hello For the People Act! Pack the court! Bye bye Electoral College! Tax the rich! Defund the Pentagon! Open those borders! Needless to say the whole enchilada of voting rights, single payer healthcare, climate change initiatives, economic “equality” (universal income) and all the rest will be on the agenda. And all will become law. 

Also keep in mind that the leftists in the senate are unhappy with Schumer and will try to oust him in favor of someone more “progressive.” So imagine a Chris Murphy, Elizabeth Warren or Tina Smith as majority leader and then imagine what pieces of legislation get passed. Ron Johnson is not stupid, he just seems to be acting that way. He must recognize this possibility. Trump, keep in mind is a short-timer and probably doesn’t care about a future without him as president. But a trashing of the filibuster will have long lasting and devastating impacts on the Republic.

So if the democrats have any smarts they will do the “Don’t throw me in the briar patch!” thing or is a rope-a-dope thing to pretend they are against lifting the filibuster? Then when the republicans are foolish enough to bring it to the floor, the democrats should vote unanimously for it.

Boy, I’m glad that we have won the war!

Word is that the president himself came up with the name “Epic Fury” for his war on Iran. That’s appropriate in that “epic fury” is what the president seems to display regarding most of his time in office.

Trump says we have won the war in Iran so I guess it is time to go home. But then why is the Pentagon deploying 3,000 Airborne to the Gulf? The Wall Street Journal says that Tehran thinks its winning. So who is lying? It is notable that after saying that we have won Trump issued a 48 hour threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure if Iran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians told him to go pound sand and let the 48 hours lapse. Trump then said that he is delaying the bombing because constructive talks were taking place with Iranian leaders. Trump tweeted “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.” Trump said Trump said U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke with some unidentified leader in the Iranian regime. “They want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal, too,” Trump told reporters. “If negotiations fall apart, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.” Meanwhile, the Iranians called Trump a liar. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament said “no negotiations have been held with the US.” Iran’s foreign ministry also denied Trump’s claims about negotiations.

The New York Times accused Trump of lying. No surprise there since they have catalogued Trump lying at least 30,000 times during his time as president. Why would Trump lie when the lie is so blatant? More than likely, Witkoff and Kushner could be talking to someone in Iran who may or may not speak for the mullahs. Regardless, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 Airborne troops to the Gulf. BTW, I have two cousins who are retired airborne. One is 100% disabled from jumping out of airplanes. He would do it again. His brother commenting on the deployment simply said “We are the tool that covers the president’s butt.” That’s the saying of “Don’t write a check that your butt can’t cash.” So we obviously have not won. 

But here are just a few of the morsels uttered by our president regarding his war on Iran.

When will the war end? Trump said it will only end “when I feel it in my bones”.

“We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. Then, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion.”

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force, their missiles are down to a scatter, their drones are being blown up all over the place including their manufacturing of drones — if you look, they have nothing left.”  

 “If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

“Together with our Israeli partners, we’re crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force.” 

“Iran’s drone and missile capability is being utterly demolished. The Navy is gone. It’s all lying at the bottom of the ocean. 46 ships. Can you believe it?” He added that the U.S. “got rid of about 80% of” Iran’s missile launchers.

“We’re going to have a much safer world as soon as it’s finished. It’s going to be finished pretty quickly.”

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!”

“We could have dialogue, but I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.”

“They don’t have a navy. They don’t have an air force. They don’t have any equipment.” 

“I think we’ve won. All they’re doing is blocking up the Strait. But from a military standpoint, they’re finished.”

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

“I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need,”

“All of the NATO allies agreed with us, but they don’t want to — despite the fact that we’ve helped them so much, we have thousands of soldiers in different countries all over the world — they don’t want to help us, which is amazing.”

 “NATO’s making a very foolish mistake.” Asked if he was considering pulling out of NATO, Trump said he was not currently considering the move but said it was “certainly something that we should think about.”

“So, we need, I, I would really, I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory, it’s the place from which they get their energy and they should come and they should help us protect it.”

“We are now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all because we don’t need it.”

 “We’ve won, let me tell you, we’ve won. You never like to say too early you won, we won… in the first hour it was over.”

Lastly, if we have already won, then why did Trump give the Iranians a15 point ceasefire plan – which they rejected? I think it is pretty clear that Iran doesn’t think that it has lost. It is still shooting missiles at Israel and at the Gulf States. It also launched a missile (that it said it didn’t have) at the US base Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles away prompting some panic in the UK which has no missile defense whatsoever. I guess the Brits think that we are their missile defense. I think it is important to realize that in the eyes of the Iranians, victory is just survival. When the US gets tired and goes away, Iran will rebuild and again be a threat to Israel and to the US. I wonder if the day will come when the Israelis simply get tired of Iran and drop a few tactical nukes on it?

The Sweet 16. How’s your bracket doing?

It is time for the Sweet 16. I credit the new found remarkable increase in the accuracy in seeding to the fact that one of my dearest friends in now on the selection committee. The men’s tournament has always been somewhat chaotic ever since the seeding began in 1985. That has always been touted as the men’s game being more competitive than the women’s which has mostly gone according to chalk (seeding). There always seems to be a Cinderella on the men’s side with a double digit seed getting to the Sweet Sixteen and even to the Final Four. In 2024, North Carolina State got to the Final Four as an 11^th seed. Before that UCLA in 2021, Loyola Chicago in 2018 (remember Sister Jean?) and Syracuse in 2016. Only one women’s double seed has made the Sweet Sixteen and no women’s double digit seed has ever gone to their Final Four.

Then my friend arrived on the committee in 2025 and although Arkansas made the Sweet 16 as a tenth seed, the men’s Final four for the first time featured all number one seeds. That won’t happen this time as Florida, the defending champion, lost to Iowa, a 9^th seed. Texas did get in as an 11^thseed. But the rest of the field looks like chalk.

• No. 1 Duke (East Region)
• No. 1 Arizona (West Region)
• No. 1 Michigan (Midwest Region)
• No. 2 UConn (East Region)
• No. 2 Iowa State (Midwest Region)
• No. 2 Purdue (West Region)
• No. 2 Houston (South Region)
• No. 3 Michigan State (East Region)
• No. 3 Illinois (South Region)
• No. 4 Alabama (Midwest Region)
• No. 4 Arkansas (West Region)
• No. 4 Nebraska (South Region)
• No. 5 St. John’s (East Region)
• No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest Region)
• No. 9 Iowa (South Region)
• No. 11 Texas (West Region)

So where is the so-called parity? Each school is from a power basketball conference. Obviously that includes the Big East (UConn and St Johns). When was the last time a non-power conference team won the national championship? Remarkably, it was in 1990 when UNLV coached by Jerry Tarkanian blew out Duke 103-73 to win it all. Yes it is amazing to consider that UNLV team as a mid-major but it played in the Big West conference. It was dominant and ranked number one all season. It featured Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon, but the MVP of the Final 4 was Anderson Hunt (remember him?). UNLV was 35-1 that year with the only loss to Loyola Marymount whose star Hank Gaithers collapsed during a game and died. The other star player on the Marymount team, Bo Kimble then in Gaither’s memory started shooting free throws left handed. I think that when that happened I, and a lot of the basketball world, shed a tear.

It used to be that college basketball teams were mostly made up of high school recruits and a few transfers. It also seemed that most championship teams were mainly those with players who had been around for a while and not featuring one-and-done players as their stars. In fact, the last team whose star was a one-and-done was Kentucky’s 2012 team with Anthony Davis. So that is not the key to winning a national championship. This year’s Sweet 16 has Cameron Boozer of Duke and Darius Acuff, Jr of Arkansas who are likely one-and-doners. But if is interesting in this, the age of NIL and the transfers, most of the teams’ starters are not transfers.  Perhaps the most interesting team is Illinois which looks like the Serbian National team. 

In an article in Reason by Jason Russell “Ignore the Haters – March Madness is alive and well in spite of the Transfers and NIL” is this chart:of the Sweet Sixteen and the original schools of their starting five. https://reason.com/2026/03/24/ignore-the-haters-march-madness-is-alive-and-well-in-spite-of-transfers-and-nil/

Seven have three or more starters that are not transfers – Tennessee (Go Vols!), Arizona, Michigan State (Tom Izzo is the best coach in college basketball), Purdue (my brother’s alma mater), Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, UConn, Duke, Arkansas and Illinois. Iowa and Michigan have one, Nebraska two while Texas and St John’s have none. St John’s coach is Rick Patino who says he will never again recruit a high school player.

As usual, the betting odds – which I don’t understand – favor chalk with all the higher teams winning. There is probably a bet on how many higher teams will lose and what will the Elite 8 look like and then the Final 4. I am probably wrong but I think all the lower seeds have a good chance at beating the higher seed with the exceptions of Purdue versus Texas and Iowa State versus Tennessee.

In case you didn’t figure it out here are the teams.

Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, UConn, Duke, Arkansas, St Johns and Illinois.

So who are your Elite 8?

A $200 billion here, a $200 billion there. Rate hike?

Hey what’s a measly little $200 billion?

Trump wants $200 billion for his war on Iran. Didn’t Trump also say that we have won the war? “I think the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force, their missiles are down to a scatter, their drones are being blown up all over the place including their manufacturing of drones — if you look, they have nothing left.”  Well if his war is won, I guess he just needs the $200 billion to replace the munitions used and buy more jet fuel. Right?

Well lots of luck getting the congress to authorize that. I don’t know if he can even get that through the House but probably would have more luck in the Senate. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said it “remains to be seen” whether the funding package would pass in the Senate. Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) said he would support more funding for the war, “but I’ll try and insist we pay for it.” I guess that means he would want an offset so as not to add to the deficit. But “The problem with supplementals is if you vote for it, you’re basically authorizing the war” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D., Ill.), an Army veteran who lost both legs in the Iraq war in 2004.

“It takes money to kill bad guys” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “So we are going back to Congress and our folks there to ensure that we are properly funded for what’s been done, for what we may have to do in the future.” No doubt the US is burning through munitions for thousands of missions. U.S. Central Command said it had struck 7,800 targets, damaged or destroyed more than 120 Iranian vessels and flown 8,000 combat flights.

Of course, Chuck Schumer is opposed: “Let’s be clear: If Trump wants $200 billion, that means he believes we might be in a war with Iran for a very, very long time.” Even the republicans in the House are not entirely on board. Georgia’s Rep. Andrew Clyde usually a MAGA cheerleader said “I need to know what it’s for and it needs to be justified.” All this translates to bad news for the administration. The democrats will all vote no. Thomas Massie will be one republican in the House to vote no. And if the MAGA-types aren’t doing their usual cheerleading, then it is a distinct possibility that the president won’t get his $200 billion.

Rate hike, hold or decrease?

Fed governor Michelle Bowman says that she has penciled in the possibility of two rate cuts in 2026. She may be by herself in that prediction. Chairman Powell says that any rate cut will depend on what happens to inflation and that seems to be the sentiment for most of the Open Market Committee. Of course, Trump is hoping that his nominee Kevin Warsh will soon replace Powell as chairman. But there is no guarantee that even Warsh will support a rate cut after confirmation. Market yields on longer term securities are edging up in anticipation of more inflation. Foreign central banks in Canada, Japan and Australia are moving toward raising their rates. Regardless of what Trump wants, the Fed has shown that what Trump wants Trump may not get. US markets are actually anticipating no rate increase the rest of this year and problematic about increases for the first of 2027. The Fed targets the price index of personal-consumption expenditures which shows inflation at 2.8% in January and core inflation which excludes food and energy, at 3.1%. Recall their target inflation is 2 percent. What will be the impact of Trump’s tariffs and now the price of energy because of the war? Seems to me that if Trump really wants a rate decrease then he could help things by rolling back his tariffs to zero. Lots of luck with that. What happens to the price indices that include food and energy because that is where most of the price increases will be? What will the Fed do then? Raise rates? BTW, diesel prices have jumped more than $2 a gallon? It now costs me $200 a tank for my Ford F-250. When my other half and I went to a local restaurant, the prices were $5 per entrée more than they were last week. Sorry but her chicken tenders are not worth $21 and my bowl of soup and Caesar salad were not worth $19. We won’t go back because eating out for us is price elastic.

I still wonder if Powell will leave the Board once his term as chairman expires. I wouldn’t. I’d stay just to tick Trump off after all the vindictive that Trump has leveled at him. Staying on would deny Trump another appointment to the Fed. Currently, there are Bowman, Waller and soon Warsh if ever the silly “Justice” Department harassment goes away. Another appointment will have Trump’s nominees constituting four of the seven seats at the Board. Some think that this will enable Trump to have his way with the Fed for the remainder of his term. But that is doubtful. Even now Waller and Bowman are not sure things for the president since they were passed over for the chairmanship. If Trump loses his fight to fire Lisa Cook, the other members will feel freer to continue to express their independence and likely will do it. Of course Trump knows this. Remember he said that in the interviews he is told what he wants to hear but once confirmed by the Senate the nominees mostly go their own way.

Robert Mueller. Rare Earth. Big bad China.

Robert Mueller RIP

Robert Mueller just died. The former head of the FBI led the Russia-Trump investigation (hoax). The president, his usual companionate self said “I’m glad he is dead.”

Rare Earth

All this talk about rare earth reminded me of the band of the same name which was one of the few white acts on Motown – “I just want to celebrate”.

Speaking of rare earth (the collective name for 17 essential minerals used in modern technology) the US led the world in the production of rare earth minerals until the 1980s. All of a sudden the government started piling on regulations of all sorts from EPA to safety and now it takes 10 years to get the permits necessary to operate. It now takes a whopping 29 years from discovery to production. No wonder rare earth mining went elsewhere. Jumping through all the government hoops adds $1 billion to the costs in the development of the mining project. There is one mine project started in 1980 slated to open in 2028. This is ridiculous. 

The government is now investing in companies that operate mines. There are abundant supplies of rare earths in the western states and Alaska. Why not just waive all the rules and impediments in the way of opening the mines? Then rare earths won’t be that rare at all.

Speaking of China

It is getting so now that I am skeptical that much of what I read is the truth. Two cases in point are information on Trump’s war on Iran and anything about China. I don’t believe any data reported by the Chinese on China. Much like I doubt the data now coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department, the Chinese have an incentive to lie. It is in the Chinese best interest to puff itself up to the rest of the world. And sure there are those in the western media who love to put down the west and thereby amplify all the propaganda from China. But much of China is a Potemkin village.

This is nothing new.  What about all the stories that the Chinese economy was going to surpass the US? What about all the stories that the Chinese yuan was going to supplant the dollar as the world’s reserve currency? Well those stories were just that – stories. BTW, when I was growing up for some reason my parents forbade us from saying the word “lie” instead we had to say “story.” Well then we have been told a continuing stream of stories about China’s economy. I have not bought any of it. I have been saying for years, that with a population four times that of the US (1.4 billion to 343 million), the Chinese economy should be labelled an embarrassment. Its GDP is a paltry $19 trillion while the US is $31 trillion. In nominal terms the US is 63 percent bigger with fewer people. And to think we have fools that want to emulate China.

China is the poster child of the failure of socialism, state planning and industrial policy. Its real estate sector is a drag on the economy and much of its productive capacity is dependent on state subsidies. This cannot go on forever. Those chickens are going to come home to roost and the results won’t be pretty. Its disastrous one child policy is causing its population to shrink. Its economy is shrinking despite its trade surplus now over $1.2 trillion. That trade surplus is a byproduct of China subsidizing its export manufacturers. China is a world leader in EVs, ship building, robots, solar panels and a bunch of other stuff. But subsidies essentially are another way of saying “producing and selling at a loss.” We all know that you can’t make that up on volume. 

The Chinese have always produced lofty statistics on its rate of growth. They are saying their economy will grow 4% but in reality the Chinese economy is shrinking. China’s share of world GDP peaked at 18.5% in 2021 but is 16% now, despite the trillion dollar trade surplus. DOES DONALD TRUMP KNOW ABOUT THIS? If China is growing at 4 percent and the US is growing at 2 percent, the Chinese number is bigger because its base is smaller. For instance, would you rather grow at 100 percent or 5 percent? Most would say the former. But if you start at one and grow to two, you grow 100 percent. But if you are at 10 and grow to 15, wouldn’t you be better off at the slower rate of growth? The same is true when comparing the Chinese numbers to the US.

I am waiting for the Chinese asset bubble to explode. Its real estate market is on life support. There are enough empty apartments to house its entire population of 1.4 billion people. I doubt if they have an “affordability” issue in housing! In fact, some localities are demolishing new buildings. Can you imagine the financial burden of having to finance empty buildings? The truth of the matter is that there are not enough investments in the Chinese economy that produce what we in finance call positive net present value. That is, net present value measures the value of a series of cash flows over the investment horizon, discounted back to the present. If you sum all future cash flows adjusted by a discount rate it gives you the NPV. If positive, the project is expected to be profitable. If negative, it suggests a loss. Much of the investments in China are negative NPV and would not even be undertaken here.

As a result, investment money flows out of China not into it. Last year net foreign investment fell by around $170 billion. In contrast net foreign investment in the US was $292 billion. Don Boudreaux constantly points out that the positive net foreign investment is also a result of our trade deficit – that is our dollars spent abroad flowing back into the country. Isn’t it weird that Trump wants as part of his tariff deals more foreign investment in the US when we get precisely that because we run a trade deficit? BTW, foreign investment increases the trade deficit. Trump envies China’s trade surplus. Why?

Strait jacket. Where’s the beef? Processed, ultra-processed, raw?

Open the Strait!

Word has it that Iran as part of a settlement wants to exact tolls for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is an international water so that should be a nonstarter. However, what would it take to guarantee that Iran will never block the strait again? You would have to take away the threats from drones, missiles and mines. Does that mean you have to put marines in the islands in the strait to clean out all the armaments including the missiles? Then you would have to station the marines there permanently. That may not be far fetched since it would just be another permanent installation in the Gulf. You would also have to station the navy there as well as with A-10 warthogs and Apache helicopters to stop any naval threat and prevent mines from being laid. Despite all the US and Israeli attacks Iran is still has a vast stockpile of mines, cruise missiles and hundreds of undamaged boats in hidden facilities with deeply dug tunnels along the coast and on islands. Seems to me that to ensure safe passage through the strait, the US will have to put boots on the ground. While a full blown invasion of Iran would simply be a stupid logistical nightmare, taking over the coast along the strait and the islands might be the only choice or else the danger of small, unmanned boats carrying explosive charges or airborne drones would present an ever present danger. Still taking control of the coast and the islands will not eliminate the threat of cruise missiles being fired from hundreds of miles away. Is this what is referred to as a “strait jacket?”

A modest suggestion: One way out is just to leave. Since we don’t need energy from the Gulf (so says Trump), the only economic reason we are there is fertilizer where we get about 13 percent of our total supply. We could probably make that up elsewhere. So why have all the installations and all the troops? We have 8 permanent bases and 11 access sites in 19 countries in the Middle East with 50,000 troops. So if there is no real economic reason for us to be there, why are we there? Are we there just to keep Iran from getting the bomb? Not likely. Are we there to keep ISIS and terrorist groups in check? Do we really need 50,000 troops to do that? Why don’t we just say that we will show up every now and then to make certain Iran does not get nukes and tell our Gulf “allies” that its their responsibility to provide their own security. Certainly they have the resources. So degrade Iran’s military and let those countries in the Gulf and those dependent upon Gulf oil and LNG keep the Strait of Hormuz open and keep Iran in check. I am sure that China, India, Japan and South Korea can work things out. Oh and yes I know we are abandoning those mostly young Iranians who hope for a regime change, but why is that our responsibility?

Where’s the beef?

There is a study done in Sweden that links high meat consumption to lower risk of dementia. “Meat consumption and cognitive health by APOE genotype” is the study.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2846712#google_vignette

Here is the finding:

“In this cohort study among 2157 older adults without dementia, higher total meat consumption was associated with slower cognitive decline and a reduced dementia risk among older adults with APOE ε3/ε4 and ε4/ε4 genotypes. Interactions by APOE genotype were observed for trajectories of global cognition and episodic memory.”

Meaning: “These findings suggest that higher meat consumption than conventionally recommended may be associated with benefits in a genetically defined subgroup comprising approximately one-quarter of the global population.”

The study also showed that a lower proportion of processed meat in total meat consumption was associated with a lower risk of dementia regardless of APOE genotype. So much for deli meat! Do you think that by my eating only the meat that I kill myself has helped to ward off dementia? Now if I can only remember where I put those new broadheads.

Processed meats?

RFK, jr is going to attack processed foods. I guess that includes processed meats. The only processed meat I eat is the peppered turkey breast at Kroger’s. I don’t eat fast foods. I don’t buy anything with sugar added and look for low sodium foods. And I don’t eat a whole lot of processed foods – depending on how you define processed. Is half and half processed milk? Guilty. Is oatmeal processed oats? Guilty. What about organic cereal? Guilty. What about canned vegetables? Guilty. Or frozen vegetables? Guilty. BBQ sauce? Guilty! Publix fried chicken? Guilty! Stouts and porters? Guilty! So what we need is a definition of “processed” and especially a definition of “ultra-processed.” Is pimento cheese processed or ultra-processed? What about “American” cheese – whatever that is. Isn’t anything that isn’t raw processed?

Kennedy on Joe Rogan’s show said that a definition of ultra-processed foods is forthcoming, with a nutritional label. I am sure that certain additives, dyes and the like will be highlighted. But the question is will it do any good? Will you read the label and will it change your food preferences? Don’t we know that Twinkies are ultra-processed? What about sourdough bread? Essentially, I can’t define it but I know it when I see (or taste) it.

What about the labels on cigarettes? I know the incidence of smoking has decreased over time but is this because of the labels? As study says “no.” In the “Effect of graphic warning labels on cigarette packs on US smokers’ coggnitions and smoking behavior after 3 months” the authors find “This ranndomized clinical trial found that graphic warnings decreased positive perceptionBehavior After 3 Months” the authors find in “This randomized clinical trial found that graphic warning labels decreased positive perceptions of cigarettes associated with branded cigarette packs but without clearly increasing health concerns. They also increased quitting cognitions but did not affect either cigarette cessation or consumption levels.”

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8339936/

I have the feeling that first the nutritional labels, then the graphic label with a gut microbiome, then the bans.

Processed? Ultra-processed? What about raw?

I know a couple that has been on a raw diet for at least 30 years. Both are rail thin but say that their diagnostics show that they are incredibly healthy. They eat everything raw, fruits, vegetables, nuts, grains and even raw fish and meat. Your basic sushi/tartare diet! The idea is that heating food destroys its nutrients and natural enzymes, which is bad because enzymes boost digestion and fight chronic disease. In short: When you cook it, you kill it. Remember the post on gut microbiome? Well a raw diet insures a healthier gut microbiome.  Does cooking really make food toxic? This couple would say so. I have been at receptions and dinners where they were in attendance and their strict dietary regimen was met. I somewhat admire them for their strength of conviction and sheer will power (or won’t power). Now let me see if I can give up Publix’s chocolate trinity ice cream and Jelly Bellys for a month.