Author: haroldblackphd

Munger on government failure. Powell on the debt. Are the poor really poor?

Munger on market failure and government failure

One of my favorite scholars is Duke’s Michael Munger, a leading thinker in the area of Public Choice. I have published several papers in that area but am no expert there. Munger was gracious enough to be the keynote speaker in the conference honoring my research – the “Dr. Harold A Black Academic Conference” sponsored by the business schools of the University of Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University and the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga held on September 8-10, 2022 at UTC.

I have written before that the left hates everything big – big pharma, big business, big oil, big tech – except big government. However, big government is more likely to experience “failure” than the market. Yet the left ignores that reality. BTW, when economists talk about market “failure” it is in the context where the market cannot price the product efficiently. One instance would be neighborhood streets. Should they be paid for by only those in the neighborhood who would erect a toll booth at the entrance for visitors? Or should they be paid for out of the general tax fund – by people who would never use them? What about government failure? As one text frames the issue “Imagine a world where government intervention always fixes problems perfectly—where every regulation hits its target, every policy achieves its goal, and every bureaucrat works solely for the public good.” That word does not exist because government can fail too.  In a recent publication Munger explores government failure and writes:

“I work and write in the field known as public choice. Public Choice began as an antidote to the naïve application of the “market failure” paradigm in which deviations from perfectly competitive markets always led directly to inefficiencies that markets themselves could never solve. This view was unchallenged in the 1950s and 1960s, and it worked to identify (mostly legitimate) problems with private, decentralized commercial processes. Markets are not perfect, so state action is required.

What was missing was any any theory of government failure. Under what circumstances—if ever—would state action likely be counterproductive? Government policy results from the digestion of imperfect inputs: the rational ignorance of voters, the concentrated interests of organized groups, and the principal-agent failures of unaccountable bureaucracies. Why would we expect imperfect government control and direction to be better than imperfect markets? This concern extended worries about market power to concentrations of power more generally.”

His essay can be found at

https://www.liberalism.org/p/seeing-with-two-i-s-states-markets-and-some-advice-for-us-liberals?hss_channel=tw-1968693666685534208

Highly recommended.

Jerome Powell admits that the debt is not sustainable

Its about time. Jerome Powell admits that the debt is not sustainable. In a lecture at Harvard, Powell doesn’t actually say that the $39 trillion debt is unsustainable but is on a path that is unsustainable. Powell, like everyone else, has no idea when it will become unsustainable but knows that one day it will be. Powell said “What’s clear is that our debt is growing much faster; the federal government debt is growing substantially faster than our economy. And that ratio is going up. And in the long run, that’s kind of the definition of unsustainable.”

With the interest on the debt growing to over $1 trillion, times a’wasting. Consider that in 2020 the interest payments were “only” $345 billion. But the explosion of federal spending under Biden and now Trump is rapidly turning the debt burden into a serious problem. Powell reminds us that fiscal policy is not the Fed’s job. However, the Fed has been a co-dependent to the Congress and engaged in monetizing the debt (purchasing Treasurys directly from the government) which aids and abets the increase in the debt when markets are reluctant to acquire more of the Treasury securities. Can the Fed just say no?

Powell points to the notion advanced by Ronald Reagan that the debt burden can be addressed not simply by paying down the existing debt but by growing the economy faster than the growth in the debt. But that has not happened for a number of years. This is nothing new. Even Janet Yellen warned that the

ever growing debt could reduce the Fed’s ability to address unemployment and inflation but restraint does not seem to be in Congress’s vocabulary. So although Powell does not know when we will arrive at that tipping point, he did say “It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.”

The War on Poverty slowed down the reduction in poverty

Speaking of government failure, what was the purpose of the “war on poverty?” Liberals will say it was to help assist those in poverty. Conservatives will say it was to sap the incentives for the poor to extricate themselves from poverty and make them dependent wards of the state. Turns out that both are correct. Johnson’s war on poverty was supposed to aid the poor. It did but not surprisingly it also provided disincentives for the poor to leave poverty. Research has shown that from 1939 to 1963, poverty fell by 29 percentage points from 48.5 percent to 19.5 percent. After the introduction of the war on poverty, despite sending $20 trillion, from 1963 to 2025 poverty fell by only 15.7 percent. 

Here poverty is measured in market income which includes income in kind (cash and noncash payments). Currently the most common measure of poverty overstates it and Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) has proposed to change that. Currently, the poverty statistics exclude transfer payments and state that poverty is at 11 percent. But after including transfer payments and health insurance subsidies that number falls to 1.6 percent! 

Of course the poverty industry will howl if the new, more accurate definition were adopted. But as Robert Rector has pointed out for years, that the poor are actually not very poor. They would be middle income in most of Europe and higher income in the rest of the world. Ninety-five percent of American households below the poverty line have electricity, indoor plumbing, a refrigerator, a stove, and a color television. More than 80 percent have an air conditioner, two-thirds own a washing machine and dryer. Everyone seems to have a cell phone. You want to see poverty? Then go to India, China, most of Africa and South America.

An excellent paper on this subject is Tyler Turman’s, “Measuring poverty correctly reveals a hard truth about the welfare state.”

Measuring Poverty Correctly Reveals a Hard Truth About the Welfare State

Highly recommended.

Dueling Statements and Iran’s 10 point plan

This is one of those instances where no commentary is necessary. Here are Trump’s and Iran’s statement on the ceasefire followed by Iran’s 10 point plan.

Trump’s statement on ceasefire:

“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Iran’s statement:

“The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historical, and crushing defeat. By the grace of the pure and holy blood of the Martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (Peace be upon him), the prudent measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the struggle and bravery of the warriors of Islam on the fronts—especially the historical, lasting, and heroic presence of you, the dear nation, on the scene since the very first days of the war—Iran has achieved a massive victory and forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.

In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasize that until the details of this victory are finalized, there remains a need for the steadfastness and prudence of officials and the maintenance of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people.

Islamic Iran, along with the brave mujahideen of the Resistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has dealt blows to the enemy over the past 40 days that the global historical memory will never forget. Iran and the Axis of Resistance, as representatives of honour and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, have given them an unforgettable lesson after a historical battle.

They have so crushed their forces, facilities, infrastructure, and all their political, economic, technological, and military assets that the enemy is now plunged into collapse and desperation, seeing no path before it other than surrender to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honourable Axis of Resistance.

On the first day, when the criminal enemies of Iran began this oppressive war, they imagined they would succeed in complete military dominance over Iran in a short time and force Iran to surrender by creating political and social instability. They thought Iran’s missile and drone fire would be quickly extinguished and did not believe that Iran could deliver such a powerful response beyond its borders and across the entire region.

Global evil Zionism had convinced the ignorant President of America that this war would finish Iran, allowing them—after removing this last bastion of humanity and mankind—to comfortably commit any crime against anyone they wished from then on. They dreamed of partitioning dear Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving Iranians immersed in chaos, instability, and insecurity for many long years.

The brave warriors of Islam and their courageous allies in the Axis of Resistance, despite their hearts being wounded and torn by the martyrdom of their Imam, decided—relying on Almighty God and following the Lord and Master of Martyrs—to give these enemies a historical lesson once and for all. They chose to take revenge for all previous crimes and create conditions where the enemy would forever cast away the thought of aggression against dear Iran, fully tasting the flavour of humiliation and abasement before the great nation of Iran.

With this strategy and relying on the unprecedented political and social unity established within the country, Iran and the Resistance initiated one of the heaviest hybrid battles in history against America and the Zionist regime, achieving all the objectives designed for this conflict during this period.

Iran and the Resistance almost completely destroyed the American military machine in the region; they dealt crushing and profound blows to the vast infrastructure and facilities that the enemy had built and stationed around the region over the years for this war against Iran. In regional dimensions, they imposed extensive casualties on the criminal American army, and within the occupied territories, they delivered heavy and shattering blows to the enemy’s forces, infrastructure, facilities, and assets.

They so constrained the field on all fronts that not only were none of the enemy’s main objectives realised, but the enemy realised approximately 10 days after the start of the war that it would in no way have the capability to win this war. For this reason, it began attempting to establish contact with Iran and requesting a ceasefire through various channels and methods.

The honourable nation of Iran must know that, by the grace of their children’s struggle and their historic presence on the scene, the enemy has been pleading for over a month for the cessation of the fierce fire of Iran and the Resistance. However, the country’s officials—because it had been decided from the very beginning that the war would continue until objectives were achieved,

including the enemy’s regret and desperation and the removal of long-term threats from the country—gave a negative response to all these requests, and the war continued until today, which is the fortieth day.

Furthermore, Iran has so far rejected several deadlines presented by the President of the United States and continues to emphasize that it grants no importance to any type of deadline from the enemy.

We now give tidings to the great nation of Iran that almost all war objectives have been realized and your brave children have driven the enemy to a historic helplessness and a lasting defeat. Iran’s historic decision, backed by the unified support of the entire nation, is to continue this battle for as long as necessary until its massive achievements are consolidated and new security and political equations are created in the region based on the acceptance of the power and sovereignty of Iran and the Resistance.

In this regard, and according to the prudence of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council—and considering Iran and the Resistance’s upper hand in the battlefield, the enemy’s inability to carry out its threats despite all claims, and the formal acceptance of all the rightful demands of the Iranian people—it was decided that negotiations be held in Islamabad to finalise the details. This is so that within a maximum of 15 days, with the finalisation of details, Iran’s victory on the field shall also be consolidated in political negotiations.

To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.

Now, the honourable Prime Minister of Pakistan has informed Iran that the American side, despite all outward threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has surrendered to the will of the Iranian nation. Accordingly, at the highest level, it has been decided that Iran will engage in negotiations in Islamabad with the American side for a period of two weeks, based solely on these principles. It is emphasized that this does not mean the end of the war; Iran will only accept the termination of the war once the details—given the acceptance of Iran’s preferred principles in the 10-point plan—are finalised in the negotiations.

These negotiations will begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10 (21 Farvardin), with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these talks. This timeframe is extendable by mutual agreement. It is essential that during this period, complete national unity be maintained and victory celebrations continue with strength.

The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the battlefield; it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the Leader of the Revolution and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive comments.

If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this massive historical victory together; otherwise, we will fight side-by-side on the battlefield until all the demands of the Iranian nation are met. Our hands are on the trigger, and the moment the slightest error is committed by the enemy, it will be responded to with full power.”

Iran’s 10 point proposal

The president said he believes Iran’s 10 point proposal “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Here is the proposal:

1. Strait of Hormuz to be reopened “under the co-ordination of the armed forces of Iran”
2. Establishment of a “secure transit protocol” in the Strait of Hormuz
3. The war against “all components” of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance to end
4. US forces to withdraw from “all bases and points of deployment within the region”
5. Full payment of compensation to Iran 
6. Lifting of all primary sanctions 
7. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 
8. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
9. Termination of all IAEA resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program
10. Release of all frozen Iranian assets and properties abroad

Call me naïve but which one is the “workable basis on which to negotiate?”

Trump creates 186,182 jobs! 

The March jobs report just came in and the president is jubilant. It said that 186,000 new jobs were created, a figure three times that which was expected. This tells us at least two things. First, the experts should be fired. When have they ever been remotely in the right neighborhood? Second, what are the actual job numbers after the revisions. They probably won’t be the 133,000 job loss in February but don’t you think that these wild swings in the numbers are a wee bit suspicious? Trump, of course took credit for the job increase (he did not take credit for the job loss) when he tweeted “A very happy and blessed Good Friday to all, especially to the 186,000 Americans who gained Private Sector jobs in the month of March alone! My Economic Policies have created an enormously powerful engine of Economic Growth, and nothing can slow it down.” Factory Construction Jobs are soaring as a result of the rapid Onshoring and surging Investment that TARIFFS have generated, all while the Trade Deficit has shrunk by 52% in a year!”

I don’t want to throw cold water on such exuberance but if you break down the numbers, overall construction jobs grew by only 26,000 and the manufacturing sector remained flat. Most of the job growth was again in healthcare with a gain of 78,000, transportation and warehousing up 21,000. Finance was down 15,000 jobs while the federal government shed another 18,000. If you can see a sector where tariffs generated positive job growth please show me. BTW, I could not find how many of those 26,000 construction jobs were factory construction jobs. One worry though is that labor force participation fell again and is now 61.9 percent. That means that more people dropped out of the labor force and are no longer seeking jobs. Recall that the unemployment rate only counts those people out of a job and seeking a job. Also contrary to Trump’s patting himself on the back is that the Institute for supply Management noted that their index fell to 48.7 which indicates a contraction in the economy (positive growth would be an index over 50).

So let’s wait to see what the revision tells us. In February job losses were initially reported as 92,000 and revised to a loss of 133,000. When the March numbers get revised downward don’t expect a press release from the White House. But just for comparison, here is the statement from the White House for the March preliminary numbers:

“The March jobs report blew out expectations with strong construction job growth and a surge in manufacturing job creation as trillions of dollars in investments begin to materialize. America remains on a solid economic trajectory thanks to President Trump’s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy dominance. Americans can rest assured that after the short-term disruptions of Operation Epic Fury are behind us, America’s economic resurgence is set to only accelerate.”

Again, the statement is puzzling given the numbers for construction jobs and manufacturing jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But as to the real numbers, we will wait and see.

In addition to the 186,000 jobs created in March, Trump also created 182 more in agriculture. Earlier Trump said that one of his goals – through deportations, shutting down the border and tariffs – was to create a 100 percent American agricultural workforce. Well the Department of Labor just released a report showing that US workers applied for a whopping 182 of 415,000 agricultural jobs advertised last year. 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/farm-labor-trump-administration-h-2a-visas-immigrants-d028e121

I thought that was a misprint. But farmers report crops rotting in the fields because they can’t get workers. The irony is that agricultural produce is having to be imported because American crops cannot be harvested. And of course, due to the tariffs, food prices are going up. Do you think that the farmers can push Stephen Miller to agree to a guest worker program?

Trump throws as hissy. GOP endorses socialism.

Thar she blows!

The president’s profanity laden tweet on his war on Iran was embarrassing – to me. He said:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the [F***in’] Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

He also said “I think there is a good chance tomorrow, they are negotiating now. If Iran fails to make a deal, you’re going to see bridges and power plants dropping all over their country.”

“If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.”

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,”

Let’s just be kind and call this rant “unhinged.” 

Well Iran’s leaders (the aforementioned crazy bastards) rejected Trump’s ultimatum and rejected a proposed 45 day ceasefire. Although I hate the term “TACO” (Trump always chickens out), I wonder if people will say it applies here. Well the breaking news is that Trump did decide to “chicken out”. After announcing an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of every bridge and power plant in the country, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and the United States and Israel will engage in a two-week ceasefire.

GOP: Let’s legalize socialism!s

Once upon a time being a republican meant small government, less regulation, economic growth, embrace of capitalism, individual freedom and private property. No more. What now seems to distinguish republicans are the stance on abortion, DEI, trans and social – not economic – issues. The latest embrace of socialism comes from Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) who has just introduced a bill to codify Trump’s taking equity shares in private companies. Commerce secretary Lutnick in defending Trump’s demand for equity in firms like Intel said “Hey, we want equity for the money. If we’re going to give you the money, we want a piece of the action.” Well Davidson’s bill in reauthorizing the Defense Production Act allows the Defense Production Act Committee – made up of the heads of federal Agencies – to make take equity in private companies so long as the secretary of the treasury—acting as the “Fund manager” – says the company “is unable to obtain additional equity investment from private sources on commercially reasonable terms.” The bill caps government ownership at 15 percent. Although 15 percent looks like a small number it would make the government the majority owner is many firms.

It used to be that a real republican would say that if the market would not fund the venture then it should not be funded. Again no more. Now if the investment would be unprofitable and the private sector would not fund it, the government would step in and fund it by purchasing shares in the company. Hey, who needs Bernie Sanders when we have Warren Davidson and Donald Trump?

Deport Omar. No Commies. Influencers.

Deport Omar?

Don’t be surprised if Trump tries to deport Ilhan Omar. JD Vance has taken up the old claim that Omar committed immigration fraud saying she “definitely committed immigration fraud against the United States of America.” Omar of course denies it saying that it is a “This is a ridiculous lie and desperate attempt to distract from the pedophile protection party’s unpopular war of choice, increasing gas prices, and rapidly dropping polling numbers.” This is the old claim that Omar married her brother in order to get him into the United States. What puzzles me is shouldn’t this be easy to find out the truth? Apparently not. Omar says of Trump “He needs serious help. Since he has no economic policies to tout, he’s resorting to regurgitating bigoted lies instead.”

Vance said he has spoken with White House immigration advisor Stephen Miller about potential legal action against Omar. We’re trying to look at what the remedies are. That’s the thing that we’re trying to figure out is what are the legal remedies now that we know that she’s committed immigration fraud — how do you go after her, how do you investigate her, how do you actually do the thing, how do you build a case necessary to get some justice for the American people?” Translation: we are going to try to deport her and revoke her citizenship.

At the “No Kings” rally in Minneapolis, Omar said “We are witnessing a full-scale assault on our rights, our institutions and the rule of law. We have an administration that is openly and brazenly breaking the law and acting like the Constitution is optional.” Excuse me, but is this a joke? See below.

Speaking of “No Kings”

That Omar talks about Trump “acting like the Constitution is optional” is laughable because she wishes that it were so but only when the democrats return to power. Does Omar support the Electoral College? Does she support the Second Amendment? Isn’t the Constitution replete with provisions designed to limit the scope and power of the government that the left would love to ignore? Don’t the centralized government and the nationalization of production go against everything embodied in our Constitution? As long as I can remember the left has been at war with the Constitution and now Omar claims that it is “optional” with Trump. If true instead of criticizing him, she should be praising him. Maybe then, he will stop trying to deport her.

No Commies either

I admit that I did not know that there was just another “No Kings” rally. However, I was somewhat distressed to see hammer and sickles on display. That flag needs to be in the dustbin alongside the confederate battle flag and the swastika. It only shows the staggering ignorance of people who embrace the totalitarianism of communism while charging Trump with being an authoritarian. What all those folk out there shouting “no kings” really want is their own brand of totalitarianism with only democrats and leftists allowed. They want to purge all non-believers, much like Mao and Stalin did and have one party rule. Hopefully their emulation of communism doesn’t translate into purging the nonbelievers. 

Speaking of Mao and Stalin, protesters in New York chanted “There is only one solution, Communist revolution.” This is from the communist party USA’s website: “It’s been estimated 5 million people participated nationwide with the June 14 “No Kings Day” protests against Trump and the MAGA right’s billionaire-backed assault on the people’s democratic rights. CPUSA members were in the mix, adding their Communist plus to the day’s events.” What no mention of the left’s billionaire-backed assault on people’s democratic rights? Who were the main financial backers of the No Kings rallies? Huh? 

So to my friends at the No Kings rallies: beware the company that you keep.

Influencers and Big Pharma?

I have often wondered who do influencers influence? Why would anyone go out and buy something because someone on tik tok said so? Then it occurred to me that all the celebrities in all the commercials are actually influencers. I am sure that hordes of people are rushing to Home Depot  buying power tools and garden seeds because Shaq is doing their commercials. So I was wondering if there is some law against celebrities advertising drugs because of all the drug commercials I have only seen one – Serena Williams and a weight loss drug, Ro. Last year the top five advertised drugs were Keytruda (cancer), Ozempic (diabetes), Eliquis (stroke), Dupixent (eczema), and Skyrizi (Crohn’s disease). Not one of them had a celebrity in their ads. Why not? But query: are there celebrity ads for Big Pharma on social media (X, tik tok, etc)?

Birthright in Court – Am I illegal?

Trump’s solicitor general has an impossible job defending the indefensible. He tried to argue the legality of Trump’s illegal tariffs and was forced to concede their illegality. Now he is trying to argue that the 14^th Amendment doesn’t say what it says. In so doing, much like the tariffs, he has been forced to argue against himself. I thought the main thrust of his argument would be over the interpretation of wording in the amendment which says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” Previously the argument has been over “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” But Sauer is arguing that the overriding factor for determining birthright citizenship should be whether or not a newborn’s parents were “domiciled” in the United States, a term he defined to mean “lawful presence with the intent to remain permanently.” This just plain weird.

Damon Root, writing in Reason (https://reason.com/2026/04/02/gorsuch-barrett-and-roberts-raise-fatal-objections-to-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order/ ) notes that Justice Barett destroyed this line of reasoning when she said What about “the children of slaves who were brought here unlawfully…in defiance of laws forbidding the slave trade. You can imagine that their parents were not only brought here in violation of United States law but were here against their will and so maybe felt allegiance to the countries to where they were from.” And “let’s say they don’t have an intent to stay. They want to escape and go back the second they can. Are they domiciled?” A U.S.-born child of an enslaved person who wanted “to escape and go back” would clearly not qualify for birthright citizenship under Sauer’s argument. And the descendants of such persons, born today, would also be ineligible for birthright citizenship if applied retroactively.

That would mean that any slave who was brought here after the slave trade was declared illegal would never be a citizen. On March 2, 1807, the congress passed a law to “prohibit the importation of slaves into any port or place within the jurisdiction of the United States from any foreign kingdom, place or country.” Thus, the descendants of those slaves should not have been granted citizenship by the 14^th Amendment. That means that I might not actually be a citizen and have been voting illegally and claiming erroneously that I am a citizen and I should be deported. But to where? Congo? Mali? Cameroon? Benin? Togo? Scotland? Ireland? Britain? Even Norway, Sweden or Russia? All of those are in my gene pool. 

Clearly, Sauer’s line of defense is laughable as pointed out by both Barett and Gorsuch. Sauer would have been on somewhat firmer ground with the “jurisdiction” argument and why he chose to argue on the basis of domiciled is a mystery. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump fires Sauer.

Who will Trump fire next?

Trump has fired Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem and Pam (Blondie) Bondi. Who is next? Some say its FBI director Kash Patel or Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll or Labor secretary Lori Chavez- DeRemer. Despite his loyalty to Trump, Patel seems to have fallen out of favor. Defense secretary Hegseth suddenly fired Driscoll’s chief of staff General Randy George and Driscoll is none too pleased. Chavez-DeRemer is in the midst of an investigation of misconduct between her and two aides who recently resigned. Also it is possible that Tulsi Gabbard may be on the way out as well. Lastly, I am still amazed that Commerce secretary Lutnick hasn’t been fired given his lying about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Off with their heads!

Why is Chad in Haiti?

Why is Haiti such a mess? The Dominican Republic occupies the same island and has a stable functioning government, makes major league baseballs and has great baseball players with 99 in the major leagues. Haiti has none. Haiti is a mess. Gangs control much of Port-au-Prince. The UN actually has a gang suppression force (who knew?) that has just sent in 800 officers from Chad to aid Haitian security forces to try to regain control of Por-au-Prince. The troops from Chad will replace those from Kenya who have been in Haiti for the past 21 months trying to do the same thing – trying to reign in the armed gangs. All total 5,500 troops are expected to assume peacekeeping roles in Haiti. More than 800,000 people have fled their homes in the capitol and over 1.4 million people have been displaced.

This is the country to which Trump has asked the Supreme Court to allow him to deport more than 350,000 Haitians back home as he tries to end their temporary protected status. Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem sought to remove their protected status in February and a Federal court blocked her request. Noem had said that the decision to end the protections “reflects a necessary and strategic vote of confidence in the new chapter Haiti is turning” and the president’s “foreign policy vision of a secure, sovereign and self-reliant Haiti.” Noem acknowledged that certain conditions in Haiti remained “concerning,” but said that parts of the country were “suitable” to return to. What parts? I wonder if the Supreme Court will agree with the administration that conditions in Haiti are now “suitable” for a return in light of what is actually going on in the country. I bet if Haiti had large reserves of oil, that Trump would have sent our troops in to help out the UN’s gang suppression force.

Baseball’s new automated balls and strikes system

I love baseball. My love for the game started early. My father would plan our summer vacation around the Brooklyn Dodgers baseball schedule. If they were in Brooklyn we would stay with my mother’s brother and go to Ebbits field. If they were in Cincinnati we would go visit my Dad’s brother and go to Crosby Field. Yes, I saw Jackie Robinson play ball. Like many fans I felt like the umpires were an impediment to the game. The obvious (to all the world) missed calls in the field were bad enough but the missed balls and strikes were enough to drive you to drink – and you shouldn’t drive and drink.

Well much to the chagrin of the umpires, MLB took baby steps to address the problems caused by the umpires. First they installed the replay system where umpire calls can be appealed under certain conditions. The current instant replay system was implemented in the 2014 season. Under the current system, each manager is allotted one challenge per game, with additional challenges granted only if the previous one was successful. From the eighth inning on, the umpire crew chief is allowed to initiate his own replay review. The umpire crew chief is also allowed to initiate a review during any inning if the play in question is a boundary home run call.

Now MLB has instituted a challenge system for balls and strikes. Each team gets two challenges and only the pitcher, batter or catcher can challenge a call. This may bring some limited relief to frustrated players and fans who suffered through the nebulous strike zones of umpires like Eric Gregg and current umpires like C B Bucknor, but the system is flawed. One batter can use up his team’s challenges at one at bat – if he is wrong. So can one catcher or one pitcher. So why not give the teams a total number of challenges instead of the players?

Each umpire has his own strike zone which may approximate the real strike zone. Batters know that some umpire’s strike zone is up and down while others are left and right (re: Eric Gregg). Batters adjust and historically have said that all they wanted was the umpire to be consistent. Pitchers would know the umpire’s strike zone too and some pitchers would craft their own strike zone. Atlanta Braves’ Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were masters at this. Maddux would consistently hit his catcher’s mitt positioned a wee bit wide of the zone. He wouldn’t change and soon balls would be called strikes forcing the batters to swing at pitches wide of the zone. If the ABS (automated balls and strikes) system were in place, maybe Maddux and Glavine might not be in the Hall of Fame.

But umpires with inconsistent zones may not be motivated to change with the new ABS system. After the retirement of Angel Hernandez the worst balls and strikes umpire is C.B. Bucknor. The other day in a game between Boston and Cincinnati Bucknor was challenged eight times. He was overturned six times. He was overturned on all five Cincinnati challenges. But he never changed. Boston lost two of their challenges and could not have any more, meaning that Bucknor could still call the game as he saw fit when Boston was batting. There was a critical point in the game where Boston needed a challenge but had none. Its manager protested the call and was ejected. There was a game where MLB’s grading system had Bucknor missing 28 calls during a game. Even good umpires like Dan Iassogna can have bad days like the one where he missed 26 calls. But Bucknor’s poor vision is not confined to calling balls and strikes, he even gets overturned by the replay system, like he did the next day on a call that everyone saw. But to be fair, Ben May has the highest percentage of calls being overturned by replay.

Now clubs will have to figure out when to tell their players to challenge and when not to – even on obvious missed calls. The problem is that in baseball even if it is in the first inning with two outs and no one on base, should a call be challenged if this is obviously not a critical situation? But what if there would have been a rally with successive hits, robbing the team of a high scoring inning? It seems to me that the only solution is for all balls and strikes be called by the ABS system taking the home plate umpire out of the picture completely. I know some purists will complain and certainly the umpires will too. But how else to handle the situation where if it were not for the union, Bucknor and the worse umpires would be out of a job?

What baseball has done is to not let Bucknor umpire a Championship Series or a World Series. The same is true for Scott Barry, judged the second worse umpire in terms of balls and strikes. Mind you Bucknor’s lowest league accuracy rate is 92.3 percent so some might say “WTF, that’s pretty good.” Well in baseball, pretty good is not good enough.

Bondi banished. Slate. The Iran speech. NATO. Mail-in ballots

Bondi banished.

When Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem was canned, I asked was Pam (Blondie) Bondi was next. The answer is yes. Trump just removed her as attorney general. He was displeased with the speed at which she was following his wishes to persecute his multitude of enemies but I guess it was the Epstein files that finally got her. As is his wont he will likely get another of his army of personal attorneys to replace her. I guess the prestige of the job outweighs having to work for Trump. 

Slate is just Tesla misspelled

I’m sure you have read about the Jeff Bezo’s backed electric pickup truck some call the “anti-Tesla.” It the Slate, a minimalist vehicle priced at $24,000 with crank up windows. Maybe it is the anti-Tesla because of the low technology, bargain basement price and homely appearance. But note that “Slate” is a Pooh spelling of “Tesla.”  (Winnie the Pooh was once told of her spelling that at least she got all the letters correct, just not in the right order)

Trump’s not-so-victory speech

Was I the only one who got the impression that Trump’s speech on his war on Iran was not a good sign for his conduct of the war? It was only 19 minutes. When has Trump ever given a 19 minute speech? It was saying that “Although we have won we will still bomb Iran back to the Stone Age because obviously they don’t realize that they have lost.” Again he threatened to bomb civilian targets in the country’s infrastructure. He has even indicated exiting the war leaving the Strait of Hormoz closed. All in all it did not sound like a victory speech. I thought he said that we had won. Some victory.

The president keeps saying that he is talking to someone in Iran who wants a ceasefire. Who is he talking to since all we hear out of Iran are denials? I keep wondering if some Iranian teenager is scamming the president social media account.

Leaving NATO?

Trump is spitting mad at our NATO allies for not supporting his war. They all say that it’s not their war – and it is not. The latest threat from the president is leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed and telling our allies to open it themselves if they want the oil. He has also threatened to leave NATO. Does that mean he will shutter all our military facilities in NATO countries and bring our 100,000 troops home? Trump always rails at the NATO countries for not spending 5 percent of their GDP on defense but its our fault. They are being rational to spend as little as they can get away with, so long as the US is defending them. They would be motivated to spend more only if they had to defend themselves. That is why the British ended up not even being able to defend their own base in Cyprus against an Iranian missile. So instead of badgering NATO countries to spend more, all Trump needs to do is to announce the systematic closure of US military assets in Europe and the withdrawal of American forces.

Yet another attempt to nationalize federal elections

After criticizing the democrats for trying to nationalize federal elections with their For the People Act, Trump is trying to do it himself. First, there is the SAVE Act and now he has issued another executive order regarding mail-in ballots. The order requires the Department of Homeland Security to provide states with a list of citizens who are eligible to vote in the next election. It institutes a rule blocking the U.S. Postal Service from transmitting ballots from individuals not on a state-specific mail-in and absentee voter list. It also orders the attorney general to investigate the distribution of “Federal ballots to ineligible voters” and empowers agencies to cut off federal funds to noncompliant states and encourages his Department of “Justice” to investigate and prosecute local election officials who don’t comply.

Pardon me, but isn’t all of this unconstitutional? And it is also chilling to think that a list of eligible voters will be provided to the states and those not on the list won’t be able to vote. I know that the democrats are threatening to sue. But the republicans should also sue. And rather than just sue, I would expect almost every state not to comply. This is only an executive order and will likely be overturned by any court. Some republican governed states, Georgia and Idaho, have already voiced noncompliance.

Federal courts have before ruled that Trump’s executive orders regarding mail-in voting are unconstitutional. The courts determined that he lacks the authority to unilaterally alter federal election procedures. The Constitution grants states the power to regulate their own elections, including mail-in voting. Trump will lose this one and by the way to all of those “No Kings” folk, it Trump were truly a king rather than wishing he were, the edict would have the force of law. So please stop this “No Kings” nonsense and go back to your bingo games and yard sales.

Trump said what?

The president who is fond of hearing his own voice is at it again, demanding Iran’s total surrender to a war he says we have already won, or else he will bomb their civilian infrastructure back to the stone age. Here is what he tweeted

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” “But, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ Trump said that attacking Iran’s infrastructure would be “in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.'”

This is a no-no. Attacking civilian infrastructure is nothing less than a war crime. I wonder if this is the type of order that Mark Kelley and the other democrats urged the military not to obey. I would think that there would be some resistance amongst the senior officers to conduct such an operation. Recall that the admiral over the southern command resigned when ordered to attack the speedboats in the Eastern Caribbean – an action of questioned legality. One observer said of Trump’s threat: “Threatening to obliterate a nation’s power grid, oil infrastructure and water supply to coerce its government is not a negotiating tactic; it is text-book collective punishment and a war crime.” 

One thing is for certain, if Trump makes the military attack Iran’s civil infrastructure, all hell will break loose in the Gulf. Iran will start to target the civilian infrastructure of our Gulf allies and in Israel. Desalination plants are crucial in the Middle East with almost every country being dependent upon them for fresh water. However, Iran is less dependent on desalination plants for drinking water than its Gulf neighbors. Iran gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and underground aquifers. But hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, putting individual systems that supply water to millions within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. Without them, major cities — such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates or Doha, Qatar’s capital — could not sustain their current populations.  So a word to the president: don’t.

The president also said that he wants to pick Iran’s next leader much as he did in Venezuela. Trump said “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Not surprisingly, the Iranian Leadership Council told him to go pound sand saying “The great Iranian nation will never allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs and its right to determine its own destiny.” Anyway, who would Trump pick? Well the president said sensitive “Most of the people we had in mind are dead.”

The president has also said that he wants Iran’s oil. “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the U.S. say: ‘Why are you doing that?’” Sen. Lindsey (Bomb them All) Graham (R-S.C.) is pushing Trump to take Kharg Island, through which Iran exports 80 to 90 percent of its oil, to cripple Tehran’s regime. Trump said “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” Well then, why all the marines and airborne troops? Huh?

Earlier I asked why do we have all those installations and troops in the Middle East. Maybe its to keep the Chinese and the Russians out. But more than likely it is to protect the billions of dollars of US corporate investment in the region. Apparently most, if not all, of the Gulf states are incapable of warding off Iran. There is no longer a Saddam Hussein in Iraq to balance off the Iranians. Recall that they fought an eight year war that killed over 500,000 people as Hussein tried to prevent Ruhollah Khomeini from exporting Iran’s revolution over to Iraq. In addition to protecting US corporate interests, we are also there to protect Israel. To that end, given the destruction of US military installations and assets in the region, why not relocate our military to Israel? Wouldn’t that serve the same purposes? Just warn Iran that any invasion of the Gulf allies will be met with severe force that will once again pound the country’s military and kill their leaders.

A “failed” Treasury action. Birthright comes to the Court

A “failed” Treasury auction

We just had a failed Treasury auction.  The Treasury has specific financing needs and hopes to sell its securities at a high price which translates into a low interest rate. A failed auction is not one when the Treasury cannot sell all its securities but when the sale is at prices lower than anticipated making interest rates higher than the Treasury would like. Failed auctions seemed to be getting more frequent as the markets start to reach a saturation point for Treasury securities used to finance the debt. Another reason for a failed auction is an increase in inflationary expectations where buyers demand higher yields to protect their real returns.

A case in point was the latest auction of 2 year Treasurys. The Treasury had to raise $70 billion and it did so but at lower prices and higher yields than it wanted. The latest auction resulted in yields climbing 9.6 basis points to 3.926%, the highest yield in eight months. Trump of course wants Treasury yields down, lowering the cost of financing the debt, but his policies are making the opposite happen. First, the tariffs resulted in inflationary expectations rising, creating higher yields and not this first auction. His war on Iran pushed rates even higher. The market is saying that increased energy prices resulting from the war will translate into higher inflation. In order to preserve their real rates of return on the Treasurys, the market demands higher yields.

The next auction is a $70 billion 5 year Treasury auction. It will be interesting to see what happens then. I expect another failed auction and higher rates on the five year Treasurys. All total the Treasury has $10 trillion in debt coming due next year. Again , it will be able to refinance the debt but at what price?

Birthright citizenship

On the Supreme Courts’ docket is Trump’s challenge to birthright citizenship. I am not going to go into great detail again but at its core is the 14^th Amendment which conveys citizenship to everyone born in this country except the children of diplomats. The amendment says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” On his first day in office during this term, Trump issued an executive order saying that the government would not recognize as citizens children born here if a parent were not a citizen or a lawful permanent resident. He was immediately sued – and lost. Thus, far in challenges to the executive order, Trump has lost each time in six lower courts, regardless of the judges’ ideology. A Reagan-appointed judge said I can’t remember another case where the question presented is as clear as this one Is. This is a blatantly unconstitutional order.”

I expect that the court will rule unanimously against Trump. But I can be wrong. There is no doubt that the three liberals on the court (Kagan, Sotomayor and Brown Jackson) will be opposed but indications are that given rulings in the past the other justices will also. Nevertheless, I have been wrong before. Recall that Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh voted to keep Trump’s tariffs in direct conflict to earlier rulings where they defended the major questions doctrine. That doctrine says that when the executive branch seeks to wield significant regulatory power, it must first point to an unambiguous delegation of such power by Congress to the executive. In the case of the 14^thAmendment if the so-called conservative members of the court are consistent, they will vote against Trump’s executive order. 

Of course, Trump will have a cow. On fact he has had enough cows to have an entire herd – which would help in the beef shortage. He has harangued against the court rulings against his wishes to expand the power of the executive and was particularly spiteful in the tariff ruling. He then said “They sicken me, because they’re bad for our country.” Trump is expecting to lose here too as he said the court “will find a way to come to the wrong conclusion” on birthright citizenship—an outcome, he said, that other nations would celebrate.

Of course, all eyes will be on Clarence Thomas the descendant of slaves who – like mine – were given citizenship by the 14^th Amendment. In a 2022 case about federal benefits for Puerto Rico residents, Thomas argued that the citizenship clause promises equal protection for all citizens. Though birthright citizenship wasn’t the main issue in the case, Thomas would have understood the implications of his argument on future litigation over the birthright issue.

Regarding the major questions doctrine, it seems clear that on that basis the court should rule unanimously against Trump. The president has argued that birthright citizenship was meant only to give citizenship to the ex-slaves and their children and not to illegal immigrants. He is wrong. If the congress had wanted that to be so, then it would have written it into the amendment. It chose not to do so. debate on the 14^th Amendment, Senator Edgar Cowan (R-PA) said “Is it proposed that the people of California are to remain quiescent while they are overrun by a flood of immigration of the Mongol race? Are they to be immigrated out of house and home by Chinese?” Doesn’t that sound like Stephen Miller? But the Senate in a way agreed with Cowan that the result would be that those (Mongol) children born here would indeed be citizens and should be. Here is what Sen. John Conness (R–CA) replied “I beg my honorable friend from Pennsylvania to give himself no further trouble on account of the Chinese in California or on the Pacific coast. We are entirely ready to accept the provision proposed in this constitutional amendment, that the children born here of Mongolian parents shall be declared by the Constitution of the United States to be entitled to civil rights and to equal protection before the law with others.”

So Trump is wrong (again).