Author: haroldblackphd

Iran strikes back. DOJ’s Jerome Powell witch hunt.

Iran strikes back

For a country that has lost the war, the Iranians are sure doing a lot of damage. They have targeted US installations and energy facilities of those Gulf states that are allied with us. Iranian missiles and drones have inflicted billions of dollars damage to highly sophisticated military equipment, US facilities, radar installations and aircraft. Battle damage and replacement of losses over the first three weeks of the war has been put at $2.9 billion. Many of the 13 military bases used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Troops are reported to be now living in hotels and office spaces. Iran said that it will target those locations as well. The Iranians said “We are forced to identify and target the Americans. Therefore, it is better not to shelter them in hotels and to stay away from their locations.”

Iran has also attacked radar, communications and air defense systems in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including damage of the Qatari AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar at Al-Udeid Air Base. The radar, which can track several targets simultaneously, costs about $1 billion. They have also destroyed one of our 16 AWACS planes.

Iran has also targeted oil and gas infrastructure, especially in the UAE, but also Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia with hundreds of missiles and drones. The attacks have disrupted supply chains, creating uncertainty for the oil and gas and fertilizer industries as key infrastructure has been targeted or shut down. The damage is in the billions and it will take some say a couple of years to repair all the damage and to get production back to where it was before Trump attacked Iran. Israeli drones hit Iran’s Asaluyeh complex, damaging four plants that treat gas from the offshore South Pars field which straddles the maritime boundary between Iran and Qatar. Iran retaliated by hitting energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. They then hit Ras Laffan, the heart of Qatar’s energy sector, causing extensive damage. Qatar’s s liquefied natural gas facilities were then hit and production stopped. Iran has also attacked oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and led to the closure of gas facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

I am no expert but Israel has not been attacked with the same fervor as our Gulf allies which indicates to me that Iran has figured that the US would sooner capitulate if they attacked our allies and shut down the Strait of Hormuz rather than attacking Israel. In doing so Iran has not made any friends, but neither has the US as the rest of the world reels over sharp increases in energy and food prices. 

Speaking of allies, our European allies have indicated that they are our allies against Russia but not against Iran. Germany has basically said ”its not our war.” “Germany is not part of this war, and we don’t want to become a part either,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Even Trump’s buddyItalian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said “Italy is taking no part and doesn’t intend to.” Britain’s Keir Starmer denied the US military access to British bases for their initial attack on Iran even though the Iranians targeted British bases on Cyprus. Trump said “I said ‘You don’t want to do it? We’ve been with you. You’re our oldest ally and we spend a lot of money on NATO and all of these things to protect you’. I think it’s terrible. I was very surprised.” Starmer said about Trump “I’m not going to waver on this. I’m not going to back down… I’m not going to get dragged into the war… I’m not going to buckle under pressure and that’s the long and the short of it.” Trump added “Keir is no Winston Churchill.”

However, the main focus of Trump’s wrath on our NATO allies has been directed at Spain’s Pedro Sanchez who has refused to let the U.S. military use Spain’s air bases for the war. Sanchez says “In my view, this war in Iran is a big mistake for the world and therefore for the U.S.” Trump’s response was predictable “Spain has been terrible. We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.” Of course, Trump does not have the power to “cut off all trade with Spain.” Sanchez isn’t taking this seriously – The US actually has a trade surplus with Spain – nor is he taking seriously Trump’s demand to increase defense spending. Spain is the only member of NATO to reject Trump’s demand to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product. Trump had said that if the country didn’t increase defense spending then maybe the US would not come to their defense if needed. Sanchez knows this is nonsense. 

BTW, Spain did send a frigate to Cyprus to help protect the British base there prompting Karoline (Lying) Leavitt to say that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military.” Sánchez’s office responded with one word: “false.” 

More DOJ’s Powell witch hunt

Will Jeanine Pirro and DOJ actually appeal Judge Boasberg’s decision not to honor the subpoenas on Jerome Powell? They say yes even though it will delay the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh to become the new Fed chairman. But DOJ may have undercut its own case. the government itself acknowledged it has no evidence of wrongdoing by Chair Jerome Powell. In the transcript of

the initial hearing the DOJ lawyer said “We do not know at this time whether there is evidence of misconduct at the central bank. “You don’t need this grand

suspicion of illegal activity. It can be something as simple as a tip or a rumor or something that just doesn’t seem right.” Oops! I bet that lawyer is out of a job. That is an amazing admission of how frivolous this action is against Powell. Then the DOJ said that the subpoenas were not explicitly targeting Powell and were instead directed to the Fed board. What! This is new because the Board has never before been mentioned as part of the investigation. Supposedly it was Powell’s testimony to congress that triggered the investigation. The judge who obviously has been reading my blog responded “How about the White House ballroom, should that be investigated? That’s over budget.” The DOJ attorney had this astounding response “I wish we were in court for something like that, Your Honor, but today we are here on a different matter.” Again, does this attorney still have a job at DOJ?

Random Thoughts #78

Abolish TSA

The recent foolishness in not funding the TSA brought into full relief why that agency should be privatized. Reports of waiting in line for 5 hours in Atlanta and only 30 minutes in Orlando which has privatized agents should prompt the congress to let the private sector handle TSA duties. Yes I know that if TSA is privatized, slowdowns and stoppages could occur if the agents are unionized. But that may be preferred to the mess created by the congress playing in front of the cameras leaving the agents unpaid and calling in sick. At least 20 airports participate in the Transportation Security Administration’s Screening Partnership Program (SPP), which allows private companies to conduct security screening under TSA oversight. So I have two questions, why don’t all airports have this program and two why not just abolish TSA anyway? Data show that they are pretty bad at doing what they are supposed to do. There is a report that shows TSA failing to stop 95 percent of the weapons that inspectors attempted to sneak through airport screening stations as part of their regular audit program.

Markwayne Mullin – Trump’s DEI hire

I am always amused when critics of individuals who make decisions that they don’t agree with yell “DEI hire” when those individuals are not white males. Justices Sotomayor and Brown Jackson are cases in point. However, if a white male judge or justice aligned with them on an opinion no one would shout DEI hire for the white males. Sotomayor has degrees from Princeton (AB) and Yale (JD). She was a sitting judge when nominated to the court. Brown Jackson also was a sitting judge and has her degrees from Harvard where she was the editor of the Harvard Law Review and clerked for Justice Stephen Breyer. Those are credentials comparable to any on the court. Personally I think that some of their rulings are more reflective of their personal views than the law but to call them DEI hires is just a show of spite and bigotry. Even when Justice Barrett ruled in a way that the MAGA folk didn’t like, some fools called her a DEI hire too. Speaking of DEI hires, what about the new head of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin? Nothing in Mullin’s resume shows that he should even been nominated for Homeland Security. Why not Tom Homan? But after the disastrous DEI hire of Kristi Noem, Trump decided to nominate someone without a college degree and who was a native American. That way he can pander to all the MAGAs that didn’t go to college and vie for the Native American vote to boot. Mullin is a DEI hire.

Vietnam?

Here is a trivia question for you. With which country does the US have its largest trade deficit? Hint: it is not China. It is Vietnam. So in a way Trump’s disruptive trade war with China was successful – although I bet a good deal of that trade with Vietnam originated in China. Also, Trump’s trade war with Canada has resulted in Mexico displacing Canada as the largest buyer of American exports. When Trump went after China in 2018, imports from Vietnam were $49 billion. They are now $194 billion. Hey if the Germans and Japanese are now our friends and Vietnam a major trading partner, can Iran come over from the dark side as well?

Is this real money?

What are all the Trump haters going to do when his name appears on US currency? The Treasury issued this statement “In honor of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America, President Donald J. Trump’s signature will appear on future U.S. paper currency along with the Secretary of the Treasury, marking the first time in history for a sitting president.” Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary and Trump translator said “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are on a path toward unprecedented economic growth, lasting dollar dominance, and fiscal strength and stability. There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial.” What will the democrats do? Burn the currency? Ask for money that does not have Trump’s signature on it? Use bitcoin? Can I still use gold? How about barter? I bet the shrinks and Chatbox will do a booming business in freaked out college-educated white women.

Is that fast time or slow time?

The Georgia senate overwhelmingly by a vote of 45-5 passed a bill for Georgia to be on Atlantic time – hello Bermuda! Georgia will stay on daylight savings time all year round although Bermuda changes its clocks twice a year. Going to Atlantic time would mean that Georgia’s clocks would be different from all its neighbors with Florida, South Carolina, eastern Tennessee on Eastern Standard time while Alabama is on Central time. Georgia would be the only state on Atlantic Standard time and the change must be approved by the congress. I am reminded that my father told me that when he was growing up, eastern Georgia was on Eastern Standard time and western parts of the state were on Central time – much like Tennessee today. Dad said that when someone mentioned the time, the response was “Is that slow time or fast time?” Well if the state goes to Atlantic Standard. The whole state will be on slow time.

Nuke the filibuster?

The president is pushing the republicans in the senate to ditch the filibuster in order to pass the SAVE Act. Mike Lee and especially Ron Johnson are in favor. Johnson says “By ending the filibuster now, Republicans could pass important legislation that the public overwhelmingly supports, but Democrats oppose. For some inexplicable reason many of my Republican colleagues believe that maintaining the 60-vote threshold required to end a filibuster is crucial to the future of our republic. I’ll admit that the 60-vote cloture threshold has prevented many bad bills from becoming law, and that without it bad bills would become law more easily. But it also prevents good bills from getting passed.”

Johnson is no fool but he is totally wrong on this one. If I were Chuck Schumer I would have all the democrats in the senate immediately support Johnson to insure the elimination of the filibuster. Yes I know it would mean passage of the SAVE Act which Schumer despises, but think about the future, Chuck. When the day comes that the democrats have control of both houses of congress and the presidency, they can repeal the SAVE Act and then pass a bunch of stuff over the feeble objections of the republicans without the filibuster being an impediment.

Senate majority leader John Thune is smart enough to understand this. He has said “The filibuster has protected Republicans through the years, conservative principles, principles and priorities, by requiring a supermajority to get things done in the United States Senate.” Obviously, the republicans are not as smart as the democrats who got Obamacare through the senate without a filibuster. Why can’t the republicans come up with some procedural shenanigan to pass the SAVE Act? Also this is a weird hill to die on. It may not even be constitutional since the Constitution gives the states the right to determine their own election procedures. And as I detailed earlier, it attacks a problem that if real, is almost trivial in its impact.

Imagine that the SAVE Act only passes because the republicans are stupid enough to nuke the filibuster. What would that have wrought? If the democrats are back in total control what would stop them from making DC and Puerto Rico states with five new representatives and four new senators? What about bringing back the Green New Deal and proclaiming the climate a national emergency and enacting all sort of Al Gore’s endorsed acts? How about a stature codifying abortion? How about legalizing gender mutating surgery and codifying trans rights. Hello to the Equal Rights amendment! Welcome back open borders! Ban fossil fuels! Out with the SAVE Act and hello For the People Act! Pack the court! Bye bye Electoral College! Tax the rich! Defund the Pentagon! Open those borders! Needless to say the whole enchilada of voting rights, single payer healthcare, climate change initiatives, economic “equality” (universal income) and all the rest will be on the agenda. And all will become law. 

Also keep in mind that the leftists in the senate are unhappy with Schumer and will try to oust him in favor of someone more “progressive.” So imagine a Chris Murphy, Elizabeth Warren or Tina Smith as majority leader and then imagine what pieces of legislation get passed. Ron Johnson is not stupid, he just seems to be acting that way. He must recognize this possibility. Trump, keep in mind is a short-timer and probably doesn’t care about a future without him as president. But a trashing of the filibuster will have long lasting and devastating impacts on the Republic.

So if the democrats have any smarts they will do the “Don’t throw me in the briar patch!” thing or is a rope-a-dope thing to pretend they are against lifting the filibuster? Then when the republicans are foolish enough to bring it to the floor, the democrats should vote unanimously for it.

Boy, I’m glad that we have won the war!

Word is that the president himself came up with the name “Epic Fury” for his war on Iran. That’s appropriate in that “epic fury” is what the president seems to display regarding most of his time in office.

Trump says we have won the war in Iran so I guess it is time to go home. But then why is the Pentagon deploying 3,000 Airborne to the Gulf? The Wall Street Journal says that Tehran thinks its winning. So who is lying? It is notable that after saying that we have won Trump issued a 48 hour threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure if Iran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians told him to go pound sand and let the 48 hours lapse. Trump then said that he is delaying the bombing because constructive talks were taking place with Iranian leaders. Trump tweeted “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.” Trump said Trump said U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke with some unidentified leader in the Iranian regime. “They want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal, too,” Trump told reporters. “If negotiations fall apart, we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.” Meanwhile, the Iranians called Trump a liar. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament said “no negotiations have been held with the US.” Iran’s foreign ministry also denied Trump’s claims about negotiations.

The New York Times accused Trump of lying. No surprise there since they have catalogued Trump lying at least 30,000 times during his time as president. Why would Trump lie when the lie is so blatant? More than likely, Witkoff and Kushner could be talking to someone in Iran who may or may not speak for the mullahs. Regardless, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 Airborne troops to the Gulf. BTW, I have two cousins who are retired airborne. One is 100% disabled from jumping out of airplanes. He would do it again. His brother commenting on the deployment simply said “We are the tool that covers the president’s butt.” That’s the saying of “Don’t write a check that your butt can’t cash.” So we obviously have not won. 

But here are just a few of the morsels uttered by our president regarding his war on Iran.

When will the war end? Trump said it will only end “when I feel it in my bones”.

“We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. Then, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion.”

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force, their missiles are down to a scatter, their drones are being blown up all over the place including their manufacturing of drones — if you look, they have nothing left.”  

 “If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

“Together with our Israeli partners, we’re crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force.” 

“Iran’s drone and missile capability is being utterly demolished. The Navy is gone. It’s all lying at the bottom of the ocean. 46 ships. Can you believe it?” He added that the U.S. “got rid of about 80% of” Iran’s missile launchers.

“We’re going to have a much safer world as soon as it’s finished. It’s going to be finished pretty quickly.”

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!”

“We could have dialogue, but I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.”

“They don’t have a navy. They don’t have an air force. They don’t have any equipment.” 

“I think we’ve won. All they’re doing is blocking up the Strait. But from a military standpoint, they’re finished.”

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

“I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need,”

“All of the NATO allies agreed with us, but they don’t want to — despite the fact that we’ve helped them so much, we have thousands of soldiers in different countries all over the world — they don’t want to help us, which is amazing.”

 “NATO’s making a very foolish mistake.” Asked if he was considering pulling out of NATO, Trump said he was not currently considering the move but said it was “certainly something that we should think about.”

“So, we need, I, I would really, I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory, it’s the place from which they get their energy and they should come and they should help us protect it.”

“We are now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all because we don’t need it.”

 “We’ve won, let me tell you, we’ve won. You never like to say too early you won, we won… in the first hour it was over.”

Lastly, if we have already won, then why did Trump give the Iranians a15 point ceasefire plan – which they rejected? I think it is pretty clear that Iran doesn’t think that it has lost. It is still shooting missiles at Israel and at the Gulf States. It also launched a missile (that it said it didn’t have) at the US base Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles away prompting some panic in the UK which has no missile defense whatsoever. I guess the Brits think that we are their missile defense. I think it is important to realize that in the eyes of the Iranians, victory is just survival. When the US gets tired and goes away, Iran will rebuild and again be a threat to Israel and to the US. I wonder if the day will come when the Israelis simply get tired of Iran and drop a few tactical nukes on it?

The Sweet 16. How’s your bracket doing?

It is time for the Sweet 16. I credit the new found remarkable increase in the accuracy in seeding to the fact that one of my dearest friends in now on the selection committee. The men’s tournament has always been somewhat chaotic ever since the seeding began in 1985. That has always been touted as the men’s game being more competitive than the women’s which has mostly gone according to chalk (seeding). There always seems to be a Cinderella on the men’s side with a double digit seed getting to the Sweet Sixteen and even to the Final Four. In 2024, North Carolina State got to the Final Four as an 11^th seed. Before that UCLA in 2021, Loyola Chicago in 2018 (remember Sister Jean?) and Syracuse in 2016. Only one women’s double seed has made the Sweet Sixteen and no women’s double digit seed has ever gone to their Final Four.

Then my friend arrived on the committee in 2025 and although Arkansas made the Sweet 16 as a tenth seed, the men’s Final four for the first time featured all number one seeds. That won’t happen this time as Florida, the defending champion, lost to Iowa, a 9^th seed. Texas did get in as an 11^thseed. But the rest of the field looks like chalk.

• No. 1 Duke (East Region)
• No. 1 Arizona (West Region)
• No. 1 Michigan (Midwest Region)
• No. 2 UConn (East Region)
• No. 2 Iowa State (Midwest Region)
• No. 2 Purdue (West Region)
• No. 2 Houston (South Region)
• No. 3 Michigan State (East Region)
• No. 3 Illinois (South Region)
• No. 4 Alabama (Midwest Region)
• No. 4 Arkansas (West Region)
• No. 4 Nebraska (South Region)
• No. 5 St. John’s (East Region)
• No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest Region)
• No. 9 Iowa (South Region)
• No. 11 Texas (West Region)

So where is the so-called parity? Each school is from a power basketball conference. Obviously that includes the Big East (UConn and St Johns). When was the last time a non-power conference team won the national championship? Remarkably, it was in 1990 when UNLV coached by Jerry Tarkanian blew out Duke 103-73 to win it all. Yes it is amazing to consider that UNLV team as a mid-major but it played in the Big West conference. It was dominant and ranked number one all season. It featured Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon, but the MVP of the Final 4 was Anderson Hunt (remember him?). UNLV was 35-1 that year with the only loss to Loyola Marymount whose star Hank Gaithers collapsed during a game and died. The other star player on the Marymount team, Bo Kimble then in Gaither’s memory started shooting free throws left handed. I think that when that happened I, and a lot of the basketball world, shed a tear.

It used to be that college basketball teams were mostly made up of high school recruits and a few transfers. It also seemed that most championship teams were mainly those with players who had been around for a while and not featuring one-and-done players as their stars. In fact, the last team whose star was a one-and-done was Kentucky’s 2012 team with Anthony Davis. So that is not the key to winning a national championship. This year’s Sweet 16 has Cameron Boozer of Duke and Darius Acuff, Jr of Arkansas who are likely one-and-doners. But if is interesting in this, the age of NIL and the transfers, most of the teams’ starters are not transfers.  Perhaps the most interesting team is Illinois which looks like the Serbian National team. 

In an article in Reason by Jason Russell “Ignore the Haters – March Madness is alive and well in spite of the Transfers and NIL” is this chart:of the Sweet Sixteen and the original schools of their starting five. https://reason.com/2026/03/24/ignore-the-haters-march-madness-is-alive-and-well-in-spite-of-transfers-and-nil/

Seven have three or more starters that are not transfers – Tennessee (Go Vols!), Arizona, Michigan State (Tom Izzo is the best coach in college basketball), Purdue (my brother’s alma mater), Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, UConn, Duke, Arkansas and Illinois. Iowa and Michigan have one, Nebraska two while Texas and St John’s have none. St John’s coach is Rick Patino who says he will never again recruit a high school player.

As usual, the betting odds – which I don’t understand – favor chalk with all the higher teams winning. There is probably a bet on how many higher teams will lose and what will the Elite 8 look like and then the Final 4. I am probably wrong but I think all the lower seeds have a good chance at beating the higher seed with the exceptions of Purdue versus Texas and Iowa State versus Tennessee.

In case you didn’t figure it out here are the teams.

Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa State, Houston, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, UConn, Duke, Arkansas, St Johns and Illinois.

So who are your Elite 8?

A $200 billion here, a $200 billion there. Rate hike?

Hey what’s a measly little $200 billion?

Trump wants $200 billion for his war on Iran. Didn’t Trump also say that we have won the war? “I think the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force, their missiles are down to a scatter, their drones are being blown up all over the place including their manufacturing of drones — if you look, they have nothing left.”  Well if his war is won, I guess he just needs the $200 billion to replace the munitions used and buy more jet fuel. Right?

Well lots of luck getting the congress to authorize that. I don’t know if he can even get that through the House but probably would have more luck in the Senate. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said it “remains to be seen” whether the funding package would pass in the Senate. Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) said he would support more funding for the war, “but I’ll try and insist we pay for it.” I guess that means he would want an offset so as not to add to the deficit. But “The problem with supplementals is if you vote for it, you’re basically authorizing the war” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D., Ill.), an Army veteran who lost both legs in the Iraq war in 2004.

“It takes money to kill bad guys” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “So we are going back to Congress and our folks there to ensure that we are properly funded for what’s been done, for what we may have to do in the future.” No doubt the US is burning through munitions for thousands of missions. U.S. Central Command said it had struck 7,800 targets, damaged or destroyed more than 120 Iranian vessels and flown 8,000 combat flights.

Of course, Chuck Schumer is opposed: “Let’s be clear: If Trump wants $200 billion, that means he believes we might be in a war with Iran for a very, very long time.” Even the republicans in the House are not entirely on board. Georgia’s Rep. Andrew Clyde usually a MAGA cheerleader said “I need to know what it’s for and it needs to be justified.” All this translates to bad news for the administration. The democrats will all vote no. Thomas Massie will be one republican in the House to vote no. And if the MAGA-types aren’t doing their usual cheerleading, then it is a distinct possibility that the president won’t get his $200 billion.

Rate hike, hold or decrease?

Fed governor Michelle Bowman says that she has penciled in the possibility of two rate cuts in 2026. She may be by herself in that prediction. Chairman Powell says that any rate cut will depend on what happens to inflation and that seems to be the sentiment for most of the Open Market Committee. Of course, Trump is hoping that his nominee Kevin Warsh will soon replace Powell as chairman. But there is no guarantee that even Warsh will support a rate cut after confirmation. Market yields on longer term securities are edging up in anticipation of more inflation. Foreign central banks in Canada, Japan and Australia are moving toward raising their rates. Regardless of what Trump wants, the Fed has shown that what Trump wants Trump may not get. US markets are actually anticipating no rate increase the rest of this year and problematic about increases for the first of 2027. The Fed targets the price index of personal-consumption expenditures which shows inflation at 2.8% in January and core inflation which excludes food and energy, at 3.1%. Recall their target inflation is 2 percent. What will be the impact of Trump’s tariffs and now the price of energy because of the war? Seems to me that if Trump really wants a rate decrease then he could help things by rolling back his tariffs to zero. Lots of luck with that. What happens to the price indices that include food and energy because that is where most of the price increases will be? What will the Fed do then? Raise rates? BTW, diesel prices have jumped more than $2 a gallon? It now costs me $200 a tank for my Ford F-250. When my other half and I went to a local restaurant, the prices were $5 per entrée more than they were last week. Sorry but her chicken tenders are not worth $21 and my bowl of soup and Caesar salad were not worth $19. We won’t go back because eating out for us is price elastic.

I still wonder if Powell will leave the Board once his term as chairman expires. I wouldn’t. I’d stay just to tick Trump off after all the vindictive that Trump has leveled at him. Staying on would deny Trump another appointment to the Fed. Currently, there are Bowman, Waller and soon Warsh if ever the silly “Justice” Department harassment goes away. Another appointment will have Trump’s nominees constituting four of the seven seats at the Board. Some think that this will enable Trump to have his way with the Fed for the remainder of his term. But that is doubtful. Even now Waller and Bowman are not sure things for the president since they were passed over for the chairmanship. If Trump loses his fight to fire Lisa Cook, the other members will feel freer to continue to express their independence and likely will do it. Of course Trump knows this. Remember he said that in the interviews he is told what he wants to hear but once confirmed by the Senate the nominees mostly go their own way.

Robert Mueller. Rare Earth. Big bad China.

Robert Mueller RIP

Robert Mueller just died. The former head of the FBI led the Russia-Trump investigation (hoax). The president, his usual companionate self said “I’m glad he is dead.”

Rare Earth

All this talk about rare earth reminded me of the band of the same name which was one of the few white acts on Motown – “I just want to celebrate”.

Speaking of rare earth (the collective name for 17 essential minerals used in modern technology) the US led the world in the production of rare earth minerals until the 1980s. All of a sudden the government started piling on regulations of all sorts from EPA to safety and now it takes 10 years to get the permits necessary to operate. It now takes a whopping 29 years from discovery to production. No wonder rare earth mining went elsewhere. Jumping through all the government hoops adds $1 billion to the costs in the development of the mining project. There is one mine project started in 1980 slated to open in 2028. This is ridiculous. 

The government is now investing in companies that operate mines. There are abundant supplies of rare earths in the western states and Alaska. Why not just waive all the rules and impediments in the way of opening the mines? Then rare earths won’t be that rare at all.

Speaking of China

It is getting so now that I am skeptical that much of what I read is the truth. Two cases in point are information on Trump’s war on Iran and anything about China. I don’t believe any data reported by the Chinese on China. Much like I doubt the data now coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department, the Chinese have an incentive to lie. It is in the Chinese best interest to puff itself up to the rest of the world. And sure there are those in the western media who love to put down the west and thereby amplify all the propaganda from China. But much of China is a Potemkin village.

This is nothing new.  What about all the stories that the Chinese economy was going to surpass the US? What about all the stories that the Chinese yuan was going to supplant the dollar as the world’s reserve currency? Well those stories were just that – stories. BTW, when I was growing up for some reason my parents forbade us from saying the word “lie” instead we had to say “story.” Well then we have been told a continuing stream of stories about China’s economy. I have not bought any of it. I have been saying for years, that with a population four times that of the US (1.4 billion to 343 million), the Chinese economy should be labelled an embarrassment. Its GDP is a paltry $19 trillion while the US is $31 trillion. In nominal terms the US is 63 percent bigger with fewer people. And to think we have fools that want to emulate China.

China is the poster child of the failure of socialism, state planning and industrial policy. Its real estate sector is a drag on the economy and much of its productive capacity is dependent on state subsidies. This cannot go on forever. Those chickens are going to come home to roost and the results won’t be pretty. Its disastrous one child policy is causing its population to shrink. Its economy is shrinking despite its trade surplus now over $1.2 trillion. That trade surplus is a byproduct of China subsidizing its export manufacturers. China is a world leader in EVs, ship building, robots, solar panels and a bunch of other stuff. But subsidies essentially are another way of saying “producing and selling at a loss.” We all know that you can’t make that up on volume. 

The Chinese have always produced lofty statistics on its rate of growth. They are saying their economy will grow 4% but in reality the Chinese economy is shrinking. China’s share of world GDP peaked at 18.5% in 2021 but is 16% now, despite the trillion dollar trade surplus. DOES DONALD TRUMP KNOW ABOUT THIS? If China is growing at 4 percent and the US is growing at 2 percent, the Chinese number is bigger because its base is smaller. For instance, would you rather grow at 100 percent or 5 percent? Most would say the former. But if you start at one and grow to two, you grow 100 percent. But if you are at 10 and grow to 15, wouldn’t you be better off at the slower rate of growth? The same is true when comparing the Chinese numbers to the US.

I am waiting for the Chinese asset bubble to explode. Its real estate market is on life support. There are enough empty apartments to house its entire population of 1.4 billion people. I doubt if they have an “affordability” issue in housing! In fact, some localities are demolishing new buildings. Can you imagine the financial burden of having to finance empty buildings? The truth of the matter is that there are not enough investments in the Chinese economy that produce what we in finance call positive net present value. That is, net present value measures the value of a series of cash flows over the investment horizon, discounted back to the present. If you sum all future cash flows adjusted by a discount rate it gives you the NPV. If positive, the project is expected to be profitable. If negative, it suggests a loss. Much of the investments in China are negative NPV and would not even be undertaken here.

As a result, investment money flows out of China not into it. Last year net foreign investment fell by around $170 billion. In contrast net foreign investment in the US was $292 billion. Don Boudreaux constantly points out that the positive net foreign investment is also a result of our trade deficit – that is our dollars spent abroad flowing back into the country. Isn’t it weird that Trump wants as part of his tariff deals more foreign investment in the US when we get precisely that because we run a trade deficit? BTW, foreign investment increases the trade deficit. Trump envies China’s trade surplus. Why?

Strait jacket. Where’s the beef? Processed, ultra-processed, raw?

Open the Strait!

Word has it that Iran as part of a settlement wants to exact tolls for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is an international water so that should be a nonstarter. However, what would it take to guarantee that Iran will never block the strait again? You would have to take away the threats from drones, missiles and mines. Does that mean you have to put marines in the islands in the strait to clean out all the armaments including the missiles? Then you would have to station the marines there permanently. That may not be far fetched since it would just be another permanent installation in the Gulf. You would also have to station the navy there as well as with A-10 warthogs and Apache helicopters to stop any naval threat and prevent mines from being laid. Despite all the US and Israeli attacks Iran is still has a vast stockpile of mines, cruise missiles and hundreds of undamaged boats in hidden facilities with deeply dug tunnels along the coast and on islands. Seems to me that to ensure safe passage through the strait, the US will have to put boots on the ground. While a full blown invasion of Iran would simply be a stupid logistical nightmare, taking over the coast along the strait and the islands might be the only choice or else the danger of small, unmanned boats carrying explosive charges or airborne drones would present an ever present danger. Still taking control of the coast and the islands will not eliminate the threat of cruise missiles being fired from hundreds of miles away. Is this what is referred to as a “strait jacket?”

A modest suggestion: One way out is just to leave. Since we don’t need energy from the Gulf (so says Trump), the only economic reason we are there is fertilizer where we get about 13 percent of our total supply. We could probably make that up elsewhere. So why have all the installations and all the troops? We have 8 permanent bases and 11 access sites in 19 countries in the Middle East with 50,000 troops. So if there is no real economic reason for us to be there, why are we there? Are we there just to keep Iran from getting the bomb? Not likely. Are we there to keep ISIS and terrorist groups in check? Do we really need 50,000 troops to do that? Why don’t we just say that we will show up every now and then to make certain Iran does not get nukes and tell our Gulf “allies” that its their responsibility to provide their own security. Certainly they have the resources. So degrade Iran’s military and let those countries in the Gulf and those dependent upon Gulf oil and LNG keep the Strait of Hormuz open and keep Iran in check. I am sure that China, India, Japan and South Korea can work things out. Oh and yes I know we are abandoning those mostly young Iranians who hope for a regime change, but why is that our responsibility?

Where’s the beef?

There is a study done in Sweden that links high meat consumption to lower risk of dementia. “Meat consumption and cognitive health by APOE genotype” is the study.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2846712#google_vignette

Here is the finding:

“In this cohort study among 2157 older adults without dementia, higher total meat consumption was associated with slower cognitive decline and a reduced dementia risk among older adults with APOE ε3/ε4 and ε4/ε4 genotypes. Interactions by APOE genotype were observed for trajectories of global cognition and episodic memory.”

Meaning: “These findings suggest that higher meat consumption than conventionally recommended may be associated with benefits in a genetically defined subgroup comprising approximately one-quarter of the global population.”

The study also showed that a lower proportion of processed meat in total meat consumption was associated with a lower risk of dementia regardless of APOE genotype. So much for deli meat! Do you think that by my eating only the meat that I kill myself has helped to ward off dementia? Now if I can only remember where I put those new broadheads.

Processed meats?

RFK, jr is going to attack processed foods. I guess that includes processed meats. The only processed meat I eat is the peppered turkey breast at Kroger’s. I don’t eat fast foods. I don’t buy anything with sugar added and look for low sodium foods. And I don’t eat a whole lot of processed foods – depending on how you define processed. Is half and half processed milk? Guilty. Is oatmeal processed oats? Guilty. What about organic cereal? Guilty. What about canned vegetables? Guilty. Or frozen vegetables? Guilty. BBQ sauce? Guilty! Publix fried chicken? Guilty! Stouts and porters? Guilty! So what we need is a definition of “processed” and especially a definition of “ultra-processed.” Is pimento cheese processed or ultra-processed? What about “American” cheese – whatever that is. Isn’t anything that isn’t raw processed?

Kennedy on Joe Rogan’s show said that a definition of ultra-processed foods is forthcoming, with a nutritional label. I am sure that certain additives, dyes and the like will be highlighted. But the question is will it do any good? Will you read the label and will it change your food preferences? Don’t we know that Twinkies are ultra-processed? What about sourdough bread? Essentially, I can’t define it but I know it when I see (or taste) it.

What about the labels on cigarettes? I know the incidence of smoking has decreased over time but is this because of the labels? As study says “no.” In the “Effect of graphic warning labels on cigarette packs on US smokers’ coggnitions and smoking behavior after 3 months” the authors find “This ranndomized clinical trial found that graphic warnings decreased positive perceptionBehavior After 3 Months” the authors find in “This randomized clinical trial found that graphic warning labels decreased positive perceptions of cigarettes associated with branded cigarette packs but without clearly increasing health concerns. They also increased quitting cognitions but did not affect either cigarette cessation or consumption levels.”

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8339936/

I have the feeling that first the nutritional labels, then the graphic label with a gut microbiome, then the bans.

Processed? Ultra-processed? What about raw?

I know a couple that has been on a raw diet for at least 30 years. Both are rail thin but say that their diagnostics show that they are incredibly healthy. They eat everything raw, fruits, vegetables, nuts, grains and even raw fish and meat. Your basic sushi/tartare diet! The idea is that heating food destroys its nutrients and natural enzymes, which is bad because enzymes boost digestion and fight chronic disease. In short: When you cook it, you kill it. Remember the post on gut microbiome? Well a raw diet insures a healthier gut microbiome.  Does cooking really make food toxic? This couple would say so. I have been at receptions and dinners where they were in attendance and their strict dietary regimen was met. I somewhat admire them for their strength of conviction and sheer will power (or won’t power). Now let me see if I can give up Publix’s chocolate trinity ice cream and Jelly Bellys for a month.

Confessions of a non-athlete

I am a non-athlete cursed to grow up in a neighborhood of good if not great athletes. When people ask me if I played football I tell them I was cursed with the four “eses”. I was too slow, too short, too sorry and too scared. I was a horrible basketball player. I couldn’t jump, couldn’t shoot, couldn’t defend and couldn’t dribble. Other than that I was great. When we played pickup games, I wouldn’t even be picked. “We’ll play three on four.” In football I was so slow that they wouldn’t even tell me to go long. My brother, although he never played organized sports was a decent half-miler. The boys I grew up with included an all state football player, an all state catcher, two basketball brothers who got HBCU scholarships and two track stars one who was the only person to beat “Bullet Bob” Hayes in a 100 yard dash in college. I wasn’t even the smartest in the bunch. OK my brother was a genius but the two basketball players became engineers, the catcher got a doctor of divinity from Harvard and another got a Phd in mathematics. Part of my problem was I was the youngest of the bunch by a couple of years but that was only an excuse. I used to say that at least my feet were athletic.

So I go to the University of Georgia where we were required to take two years of sports. I decided to take ones that we didn’t play where I grew up like golf, tennis and volleyball (white folks sports). I also played intramural softball and flag football. Lo and behold! I found out that I was pretty good at golf and tennis. Prior to my arrival in Athens, golf was taught at the Athens country club where the golf team also practiced and hosted matches. No more. They took one look at me and we got banished to the intramural practice fields. The golf team had to find another club and the university was forced to build its own course. It is gorgeous! When the golf coach gave me a tour some years later he remarked that the course should be named the Harold A. Black Memorial course. Well I don’t know about the memorial part. I also discovered that I was not so terrible an athlete after all – I just was terrible compared to the kids in the neighborhood. I still was lousy at basketball but I turned out to be an above average baseball player and the quarterback on our flag football team. My friends joked that I was the first black quarterback in the SEC. I guess I needed some white neighbors in my all-black neighborhood. I can’t sing or dance either.

When I went to graduate school at Ohio State I kept playing golf about once a week and ended up being a bogey golfer. I had to stop while I was writing my dissertation and years later had to stop for good because of a bad back. For the last couple of years in graduate school all time was devoted to the dissertation. I completed it in the year I spent at the University of Konstanz am Bodensee and when I went to Florida as an assistant professor of economics I weighted 235 pounds (and have pictures to prove it). Working hard to get tenure and raising a young family didn’t lend itself to losing weight. However, the stress was too great for our marriage and we got divorced (I got custody of my son). I moved into an apartment where the great marathoner Frank Shorter and his wife lived. Shorter would go out in the mornings on a leisurely 20 mile run accompanied by his wife on her bicycle. Shorter probably weighed 140 pounds and I asked him how could I best lose weight. He told me to start walking, then jogging a bit before running. I did that and eventually worked my way up to 10Ks, half marathons and full marathons. When I came to UT in 1987 I weighed 165 pounds. I used to go to the gym, run 5-10 miles and still go teach my 8 o’clock class. I ran 6 days a week.

When I lived in Washington, I ran with the DC Roadrunners. I may have been the slowest of the bunch and in my first marathon I got passed at mile 22 by a race walker. I became a 9 minute a mile runner but my best marathon time was 4 hours and 15 minutes. I wanted to break 4 hours to qualify for Boston and all I had to do was to shave off those pesky fifteen minutes and average 9 minutes and 9 seconds per mile over the 26.2. Piece of cake! So I trained with a professor in the law school at UNC who was a 3 hour 30 minute marathoner. We ran sprints some days and did 20 milers on the weekend running around the Chapel Hill city limits. Confident I could break 4 hours we then ran the Norfolk Beach marathon choosing one that was flat. We went through the 20 mile mark comfortably under 9 minutes a mile. The next thing I remember was waking up in a tent with an IV in my arm. The good Lord had sent me a message and I never ran another marathon sticking to halfs and 10Ks.

About 10 years ago my knees gave out. They are arthritic and I have to get steroid injections to keep the pain and discomfort at bay. I now walk on the treadmill early each day without fail. When the injections start to be ineffective and I still have to wait another month for another shot and walking up and down stairs even one at a time is painful. But I can still walk on the treadmill without discomfort. Afterwards, I can go up and down the stairs for an hour or so without pain and then its back to hobbling up and down like the old man that I am.

There are not many things I regret, but not being able to run early in the morning is one of them.

Our angry president

The president is perpetually p—-ed off and it is wearing me down. All the threats. All the CAPITALIZED TWEETS! All the bellicosity. All the name calling. All the demeaning comments. All the saber ratting. All the tariffs. All the me, me, me. The misguided industrial policy. All the lashing out. All the bruised ego. All the turning against supporters. “Activist judges”, “RINOs”, traitors and petulant whinings that sound more like a loser than a winner. Doesn’t it seem like as we go through time that the president’s attacks are getting worse and more vengeful? Is that even possible? Or is it just me exhibiting TRFS (Trump Related Fatigue Syndrome)?

But it feels like I am being hammered to death. The president doesn’t seem to be content with being a winner but instead sounds like a loser despite all his successes. His attacks on everyone, democrats, fellow republicans, journalists, judges, universities, allies – everyone it seems but Putin and Xi. All this has rolled over to members of his administrations who hit back a those who dare question the president. Press secretaries, cabinet members, “Justice” department attorneys and other Trump apologists have gotten snippy at those who question the president’s actions and policies. It has gotten to be hand-to-hand warfare. Members of the administration engage in shouting matches and trade insults with members of congress at hearings in confrontations that we have never seen before in DC. Open hostility is now de rigueur in the nation’s capitol. 

Charges and accusations keep escalating. Remember the six members of congress who released that stupid video calling on active duty servicemembers to refuse “illegal orders”? The president’s reaction was classic Trump: off-with-their heads! He called their message “seditious behavior at the highest level” and said the Democratic lawmakers should be punished “by death”. I would think that the president’s advisors would tell him to cool it down a bit and that his tanking poll numbers might be related to his escalating fury. I have written before that he at times seems to be out of control and many are calling into question his mental stability. Yet, every time that happens, his reaction is to go off the rails even more. 

Polls say that many of the president’s policies are doing more harm than good. Democrats are winning elections in republican districts and there is a general lack of confidence in the president. Affordably – which the president calls a “hoax” – food, rent, mortgage rates, insurance, healthcare, domestic policy, foreign policy, fights with allies, ICE, and now the Iran War have all hurt the president who persists in blaming Biden for all his problems. His allies haven’t helped either. Pam (Blondie) Bondi is acting like Trump’s personal lawyer rather than the country’s attorney general. Scott Bessant is always on the defensive translating what Trump really meant. Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem was a disaster. Stephen Miller comes across as pure evil. Robert Kennedy Jr looks like he is intent on destroying the public’s confidence in the government’s health apparatus. 

It is as if they have gotten their marching orders to attack and seek to destroy any who question any action taken by the president. Domestic policy seems incoherent. Americans are uneasy with the attacks on the boats in the Caribbean and with the president’s seeming to favor Putin over Zelenskyy in Ukraine. The president asking our allies for help in the Straits of Hormuz looks like a miscalculation and his lashing out at them for failing to get involved sounds petulant. He even blasted the Supreme Court calling it “a weaponized, and unjust Political Organization” tweeting “This completely inept and embarrassing Court was not what the Supreme Court of the United States was set up by our wonderful Founders to be. They are hurting our Country, and will continue to do so.” Pardon me but this is outrageous and the president has sunk to a new low – if that is even possible.

Here is what Peter Baker – certainly no fan of the president has written:

Anger defines Mr. Trump’s decade on the political stage. Anger at foreigners who come to this country and change its nature. Anger at allies who take advantage of America. Anger at Democrats who cross him. Anger at Republicans who cross him. Anger at appointees he deems insufficiently loyal. Anger at prosecutors, F.B.I. agents, judges, journalists, law firms, elite universities, cultural figures, corporate leaders, pollsters, central bankers and the Norwegian Nobel Committee. – Peter Baker

Baker is correct. Donald Trump is just another president who is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He was elected for three distinct reasons: stop the open border policy of Joe Biden, curb Biden’s inflation and stop Biden’s wokeness from tearing the country apart. He has essentially succeeded. The border is secure, inflation is down from the Biden years and wokeness has been dismantled. But then in every instance he has gone overboard. ICE now looks like a terrorist organization, legal immigration has been curtailed, Trump keeps yelling at Jay Powell and siccing his “Justice” department on him with trumped up charges, and vital research has been ended on the pretense that it is DEI.

I know that the Trump apologists will say that its only tit-for-tat. That the president is lashing out at those who hate him. But that is not true as he turns on his own supporters like Majorie Taylor Greene who only wanted the Epstein files to be released. Trump tweeted “The only reason Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown (Green turns Brown under stress!) went BAD is that she was JILTED by the President of the United States (Certainly not the first time she has been jilted!). He then called her “a low IQ traitor.” As to others who wanted release of the files he said “And my PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bulls***,’ hook, line, and sinker. They haven’t learned their lesson, and probably never will,” Trump then called them “weaklings” and said “I don’t want their support anymore!” Good grief.

The president acts like an insecure brat. He wants his name on everything. He loves to be flattered with gifts and trinkets that look awfully like bribes. He wants to control everything. He also is dramatically increasing his wealth while questioning that of Nancy Pelosi, Iilan Oman are other members of congress. Then there is his hatred of trade and love of tariffs. All in all this is a volatile mix stirred by a volatile president. And it has only been one year. By year four we will all be an emotional wreak – if we are not already.