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Is it now okay to assassinate scientists (and generals)?

Apparently I may be the only one who finds Israel’s assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists and generals disturbing. When has another country wantonly targeted another country’s scientists and military heads before – even during wartime? Did we try to kill Rommel, Guderian, Kesselring or von Manstein during WWII? Did the Germans have a program to kill Patton, Eisenhower, Bradley or Montgomery? What about the scientists? Not only did we not kill them, we imported 350 of them including Wernher von Braun to build our rocket program. So is Israel’s killing of the Iranians unprecedented in history – at least on this scale?

Note: drummer f2f732403f has corrected me pointing out that we took out Yamamoto. Thank you! Its my bad especially since I have read Dan Hampton’s riveting “Operation Vengeance” an absolutely marvellous account of the brilliance of that successful undertaking in the Pacific theater. Highly recommended.

I have heard nor seen nary a peep of condemnation. The Arab countries have made sympathetic clucking noises but you can tell their hearts are not in it. It is though they feel compelled to admonish the Israelis when in fact they are probably relieved that the Iranian regime poses less of a threat to the whole region. Saudi Arabia said the attack was a “violation of Iran’s sovereignty” and that “The Kingdom underscores the need to exert all possible efforts to exercise restraint, de-escalate tensions, and avoid further escalation.” Do tell! Qatar, the site of the US air base that was targeted (but missed) by Iranian missiles said “The current dangerous tension in the region could lead to catastrophic consequences at both the regional and international levels” and that it “Regrets the deterioration of the situation with the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.” The UAR which really doesn’t like Iran said “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed the importance of prioritizing diplomacy and dialogue to resolve disputes, through comprehensive approaches that promote stability, prosperity, and justice.” Egypt, which is the largest recipient of US aid in the Arab world mumbled “Egypt affirms its rejection of any violation of the United Nations’ Charter and international law and emphasizes the necessity of respecting state sovereignty.” Iraq, Lebanon and Oman said much the same. Again, a milquetoast pseudo-condemnation of the bombing but no mention of the targeting of the scientists.

Not only is this outrage missing from the Arab world but it is strangely missing from the leftist press. Yes there is universal condemning of the bombing by Israeli aircraft but no mention of killing of the scientists (or generals) – nine of who were killed while sleeping in their beds. I did see one rather mild statement that “targeting scientists may trigger blowback given concerns regarding legality and morality.” Wow! 

One wonders if the Iranians will now seek to assassinated Israeli civilian and military leaders. And what about the terrorists who have come in the country at the southern border? The Wall Street Journal has reported that Tehran has long supported terror operations in South America and has a pipeline of sending its spies and proxies into the continent. Iran has sent it’s operatives to Venezuela where they are given passports meaning that they can travel freely within the region. The Journal says that some 10,000 a year got Venezuelan passports. So what are all those Iranians doing? Are they just going to sit on their hands? Or are they going to try to affect some revenge on the US and Americans? I know that Trump and Hegseth have serious security but I would think that our famous scientists and prominent generals should also watch their backs.

Trump vs Powell – and Bessent?

What do you think about Federal Reserve independence? Have you noticed that for all Trump’s gnashing of teeth, name calling, threatening and cajoling that congress has been mostly silent? Powell has his regularly scheduled hearing on monetary policy on Tuesday. Trump is applying pressure on the republicans on the committee to pressure Powell to lower rates. Trump is now emphasizing the need for lower rates to reduce the cost of financing the ever increasing Federal debt. Such is easier it seems than reducing the government’s voracious appetite for spending. Trump wants the Fed funds rate to be around one percent down from the 4.3 percent where it is today. Trump is now calling Powell “dumb” and a “Trump hater.” But Powell is certainly not dumb and its hard not be a Trump hater with all the vitriol coming from the president. However, at least one of these two will continue to show class. Speaking of class, how about this from our president directed to the other governors at the Fed “I don’t know why the Board doesn’t override this Total and Complete Moron!” Does this mean that he is now applying pressure to his other two appointees, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman? We will see.

Of course, presidents have always applied pressure on the Fed, just not so publicly. The press often cites Richard Nixon pressuring Fed chair Arthur Burns to lower rates prior to Nixon’s reelection. Others point to Lyndon Johnson calling William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch for “consultations.” But never to my knowledge has the spat been so out in the open and so loudly profane. But hey, that’s this president. 

What will be interesting to see is how the congress-folk react to Powell and his testimony. Will he be grilled by both the republicans and the democrats? Will they support Trump in calling for a lower fed funds rate? Again once all the cajoling had the pretense of sparking economic growth to offset the projected impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. Trump keeps arguing that there is little inflation so prime the pump, Fed. However, inflation is still above the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent. Again many of us think that two percent is too high a target. An inflation rate of 2 percent means that prices will double in 36 years (rule of 72). That means that nominal income would have to double in order for real income to stay the same.

Mind you, the Fed is a creature of the congress. The congress can enact new legislation regarding the Fed, its composition and its goals. Why hasn’t Trump called for new legislation? Congress would probably reject such a plea because Trump is a short timer. Do we really want a republican congress to give the president control over Fed decisions in order to give that power to the next democrat president? Or should I say the next socialist (democrat) president? Can you imagine Joe Biden dictating monetary policy? That sobering thought should be enough to let Trump keep flailing away while Powell and the Open Market Committee continue to do what they do. However, whatever move the Committee makes – and I am betting it will lower the rate in July – will be met with commentators saying that Powell finally gave in, if for no other reason to shut Trump up.

But let us suppose that the fed funds rate goes down. Will this mean, as Trump keeps telling us, that we can save billions (or as Trump tweets BILLIONS!)? Not necessarily. It depends on what happens to Treasury rates. There are three categories of Treasury issues. Lowering Fed funds typically lowers Treasury bill rates. T-bills mature in less than one year and make up only 21 percent of Treasury debt. So if Federal borrowing is $30 trillion, about $6.3 trillion will be in bills. Treasury notes mature in 1-10 years. They comprise 52 percent of the debt issuance or $15.6 trillion. Treasury bonds mature in greater than 10 years and are mostly 20 year or 30 year bonds. They make up 17 percent or $5.1 trillion, The other 10 percent are Treasury Inflation Protected securities (TIPS) of 8 percent ($2.4 trillion) and Floating Rate Notes of 2 percent ($1.5 trillion). So what happens to the interest on the debt depends on what happens to the Treasury yield curve. As I write this 3 month Treasurys are 4.29%, the two year is 3.73%, the ten year is 4.29% and the 30 year is 4.85%.

Lowering short term rates may be accompanied by rising longer term rates if the markets anticipate rising inflation leaving the cost of financing uncertain. Of course the Treasury could try to move more financing to the short end of maturities thinking that usually short rates are lower than longer term rates. So why isn’t Trump yelling at Scott Bessent to start issuing more T-notes and bonds have the Fed start buying the longer term Treasury issues to drive up their prices and down their yields. So Bessent should issue more Treasury notes and bonds and less Treasury bills. Right? What would be interesting is the market reaction to such a strategy.

Bernanke’s Fed did do something similar back in 2011, called Operation Twist (trying to twist the shape of the yield curve). His Fed keep short rates near zero while buying longer term Treasurys. All this expanded the money supply and eventually led to inflation. So does Trump want the Powell Fed to mimic the actions of the Bernanke Fed that the same critics label as a failure? It is interesting that Bernanke complained about the “fiscal cliff” that the congress was rushing toward and was trying to use Operation Twist (nee qualitative easing) to help ease the country to a soft landing. There is the famous saying that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In this case it is repeating the same thing and expecting a different outcome.

HUD moving? In-state tuition for illegals? New York’s new nuke?

Thoughts from Warrior’s Path State Park

I have long said that the DC based agencies should relocate to move closer to the people that they serve. Well moving across the river to northern Virginia was not exactly what I had in mind. A recent headline reads “HUD becomes first major cabinet agency to exit DC, citing ‘failing’ HQ — which DOGE wants to sell.”

Well and good but moving to Northern Virginia? None of the employees will have to relocate. HUD is currently located in L’Enfant Plaza in southwest DC. L’Enfant Plaza was the home of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency when I worked there in the early 1970s. The Comptroller relocated to another site within DC. Moving across the river mirrors what the National Credit Union Administration -another one of my agencies – did. It went from close to the White House to across the river to Northern Virginia. I think getting out of DC brings a different perspective to those in the agencies but it is more helpful to leave the area entirely. Living next to people with real jobs rather than next to those who exist only to sponge off the government affects ones view on life. Instead of having your neighbor asking if a certain regulation is likely to include subsidies to big banks, your neighbor is more likely interested in how your children’s soccer team is faring. All of a sudden you are no longer the center of the universe. If HUD really wants to be closer to the people it needs to relocate to Detroit.

The Justice Department is suing the state of Minnesota for giving in-state tuition and financial aid to illegals. The lawsuit says that Minnesota is violating a federal statute that prohibits higher education institutions from offering benefits to illegal immigrants that aren’t available to U.S. citizens. DOJ has also sued Texas and Kentucky who have similar laws. Texas stopped enforcing its law. Texas? Now that’s a shocker. What about state’s rights? Seems to me if a state wants to do this, why not (unless they are using federal funds)? Texas was doing this? Seems to me that this is a local issue that should be decided at the state level and that the federal government should butt out.

New York is going to build a new nuclear power plant. New York? Let me see, Texas was giving in-state tuition to illegals and now New York is building a nuclear powerplant. What in the wide world of sports is going on? Are socialists now in favor of nukes? The new 1-gigawatt facility will be enough to power 1 million homes. I wonder how many acres of solar panels and how many hundreds of mega windmills would be required to do the same? Of course the governor is couching the new nuke in terms of meeting the state’s green energy climate goals. Isn’t this a tacit admission that solar and wind suck – to use a technical term? When then governor Cuomo – the disgraced one who could not even beat a rabid socialist for mayor of New York – shut down the Indian Point nuclear plant in 2021, the result was an increased use of fossil fuels to replace the lost capacity. Greenhouse emissions rose! Naturally, the greenie weenies are throwing a temper tantrum. One of them says “Governor Hochul’s nuclear gamble is a reckless distraction from the clean, affordable energy New Yorkers actually need. Nuclear power is dirty, dangerous, and wildly expensive — and this project will leave New Yorkers footing the bill while delaying urgently needed progress on renewables. Hochul needs to stop chasing false solutions and start delivering real climate action.” Wow! “Dirty, dangerous and wildly expensive”? Do tell. Obviously, this guy is living in the past and knows nothing about the new generation of smaller cleaner more efficient nuclear reactors. But then again, the nuclear industry is not paying this guy’s bills. By the way, did you know that Microsoft is bringing the notorious Three Mile Island back on line to power its AI and cloud services? Also the new nuke in New York will employ 1,600 to build and 1,200 to operate. The plant is slated for upstate New York. It’s a shame because I would like to see the incoming socialist mayor of New York City try to ban the transmission of electricity from nuclear power plants into the city (just speculating).

Warriors’ Path State Park is in Kingsport and is a great place to camp, fish, boat, picnic, hike and just get away – but not too far away. Highly recommended.

Random thoughts #61

Remember when some universities and businesses offered counselling, safe rooms and Legos to those poor souls traumatized by Trump’s election? Are the rooms still there for Jewish students to use?

The right is chuckling over Jasmine Crockett’s ending her bid to be the head democrat on the House Oversight Committee saying that even her own party doesn’t want her as a leader. Crockett said “It was clear by the numbers that my style of leadership is not exactly what they were looking for, and so I didn’t think that it was fair for me to then push forward and try to rebuke that.” Her “leadership style” was called a “clown” by Fox’s Greg Gutfield. Actually “clown” may be a term befitting more members of congress than Crockett. Consider that James Comer is the ranking republican and that Majorie Taylor Greene also sits on the committee. High entertainment has been provided by the interchange in the committee. Remember when Crockett called Greene “bleach blonde, bad-built butch body”?

Speaking of clown, Texas’ Al Green who seems to introduce an article of impeachment weekly just introduced another one. Did anyone say “clown”? AOC joined the impeach Trump crowd. Trump called her “stupid” calling her “one of the ‘dumbest’ people in Congress.” Wow. You would think he would have tried to insult her. I wonder what he thinks about Arizona’s Paul Gosar or Florida’s Maxwell Frost? Or how about New Mexico’s Melanie Stansbury who is not the brightest bulb displaying the results of a poll whose numbers totaled 110 percent?

And of course we have been witnessing the clown show called the annual debate over which penny on dead men’s eyes are we going to move to the other eye. Seriously, congress is debating Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” which only shifts goodies from one group to another while smothering all of us in more debt. The only red in Washington is the national debt.

I just saw an ad saying Trump’s BBB will cut taxes by 15 percent. Of course that is a lie. The BBB only makes permanent the Trump tax cuts from the first term. It is maintaining the status quo and does not cut income taxes.

JD Vance again showed how classless he is by calling Sen Alex Padilla “Jose”.

Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar. There were no casualties – mainly because the ones that were not shot down missed their target. Seems that the most dangerous place to be is somewhere not targeted by Irani missiles.

Where’s Hezbollah? Why aren’t the Houthis shutting down the Red Sea in support of Iran? Didn’t they say that they would start attacking shipping if Trump bombed Iran?

One of the pilots of the B-2s that bombed Iran was a woman. Maybe DEI will now become diversity, equality and inclusion rather than diversity, equity and inclusion.

ICE arrested 16 Iranians, three with terrorist ties. Will the left stage protests to free them too? It is estimated that over 1,500 Iranis came across the border illegally during the Biden years.

Trump wants US oil to drill, baby drill. Maybe that’s why he started bombing Iran. If the Iranis retaliate by trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices will skyrocket enticing oil companies to start drilling more oil. As it now stands the price per barrel is not enough to spur drilling. Darn profit seekers! Why doesn’t Trump simply issue an executive order mandating drilling?

For all those folk who think that term limits lead to better government be reminded that the California legislature is term limited.

The Supreme Court decided that Trump could deport illegals to a country not their own. It is sending a group to South Sudan. Of course the vote was 6-3 with Sotomayor doing her usual bemoaning. She was joined by Kagan and Jackson. Actually the threat of being deported to South Sudan may cause an explosion in self deporting. Would you rather go back to Nicaragua and Daniel Ortega or be shipped off to South Sudan?

A socialist won the democrat primary for mayor of New York. Most people thought Cuomo was a shoe-in but Zohran Mamdani a state assemblyman mounted a credible challenge. He is a socialist so naturally AOC and Bernie Sanders endorsed him. Mamdani wants to put in a city owned grocery store in every borough, free public transportation, he is antisemitic accusing Israel of genocide and using the slogan “globalize the intifada”, free healthcare, freeze rents in already rent-stabilized housing, raise taxes on the rich among other things. Radical yes but he virtually everything he is for you can find some “mainstream” democrat that agrees with him. Consider his statement on Trump’s bombing of Iran. “While Donald Trump bears immediate responsibility for this illegal escalation, these actions are the result of a political establishment that would rather spend trillions of dollars on weapons than lift millions out of poverty, launch endless wars while silencing calls for peace, and fearmonger about outsiders while billionaires hollow out our democracy from within.” Find me one democrat in Washington who disagrees with that statement.

I hope he gets elected. Seems like the best way to educate voters on socialism is to elect one. Chicago anyone?

Speaking of elected, would you believe that there is all this talk now about a political comeback for Kamala Harris? Seems she is contemplating emulating Richard Nixon and running for governor of California. Didn’t Nixon lose that race too?

Federal Reserve Groupthink?

When I was in graduate school in the 1960s the sainted Milton Friedman once said that a poll was conducted asking “What is the Federal Reserve?” One-third answered an Indian reservation. One-third answered a bourbon and one-third didn’t know. Those days are gone although the Fed probably pines for its return. Today Trump has thrust the Fed into the spotlight with his almost daily bellicose badgering of Fed chairman Jerome Powell. But even Trump knows that Powell only has one vote on the Fed’s Open Market Committee where the other 6 governors, five reserve bank presidents and the president of the New York Fed sit. Trump actually mused on firing the members of the Committee in addition to Powell. What is interesting is that he has not publicly berated the two other members of the board that he appointed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.

However, some Trump apologists have criticized Waller and Bowman. Larry Kudlow has accused the Open Market Committee of “groupthink” because the recent votes in the committee have been unanimous. Kudlow asks “Where is some diversity of thought and why aren’t these board members questioning Powell’s slippery and uninformed anecdotes of his new tariff war on inflation?” Kudlow show know better. The unanimous votes are not unique to this Fed. In recent memory I can only think of two others and they were single votes by two different reserve bank presidents. In reality, Open Market Committees are often characterized by diversity of opinions rather than groupthink and even though the announced vote may be unanimous, it is only to show a unified face to the world. Can you imagine the reaction of the press and markets if the votes were 7-5 or heavens forbid 5-7? The Committee would be characterized as being in disarray with Powell having lost control. Markets would be shaken. The Fed knows this and presents a united front even though there could be dissention. Note that despite unanimous votes to keep the fed funds rate unchanged that Governor Waller has hinted that the committee might vote to lower the rate when it meets in July. Waller would not have made that statement without the blessing of Powell. So look for a 25 basis point lowering unless there is an uptick in inflation. Also look for that vote to also be unanimous.

The Fed is a different place from that which existed when Friedman made his joke. Although the board was still comprised of political appointments, most of whom know little about monetary economics, such was not the case in the Federal Reserve district banks. St. Louis was known as a bastion of monetarism. Its research department was made up PhDs, many from Chicago, who were disciples of Friedman. It produced a stream of academic papers with a monetarist bent and whose president espoused it as well. The Minneapolis Fed was one heavily influenced by the rational expectations theory of Robert Lucas. The Cleveland Fed had its own theoretical bent as did Richmond and Atlanta. My friend from the University of Georgia, Bob McTeer became president of the Dallas Fed and instituted strong regional studies. The Boston Fed took my research developed at the Comptroller of the Currency on lending discrimination and developed the strongest group of economists in that area. So many of the Fed banks had their own view of monetary theory and its impact on the economy. Not surprisingly, there were many more dissenting votes on the Open Market Committee with most of the dissentions coming from the reserve bank presidents. No groupthink then. But of course, with the Fed not being prominently in the public’s eye, there could be dissention without creating seismic turbulences in financial markets. 

However, although I discount groupthink with today’s Fed, there is less intellectual diversity among the reserve banks. Clearly Atlanta (whose president is a co-author of mine), Minneapolis and San Francisco are headed by progressives who do more social outreach than other banks. There are no intellectual outposts of monetarism or rational expectations in today’s Fed system. Only the New York Fed seems to be producing academic quality research. Outside of Washington most reserve bank research departments now concentrate on regional economic issues.

I wish that the Fed would return to where once was populated by different types of thinkers throughout the system. It is understandable that even independent thinkers can get captured by working at the Fed Board in Washington. One example was a member of my dissertation committee at Ohio State who was a student of Milton Friedman. When that member left academics and went to the Fed in Washington, he was slowly transformed from a monetarist to an interest rate targeting advocate being completely transformed into a Fed-type. At least he still loved basketball and jazz. 

The legions of economists at the Fed in Washington are the ones who predominately have the same mindset. They are the ones who build the econometric models that generate the results that the Committee uses (along with those if each reserve bank’s research department) in its deliberations. What is now missing is more diversity of economic thought among the reserve banks where the concentration on regional issues has led the reserve bank presidents less able to see monetary issues from a wider perspective. Then there should be no surprise that the Committee meetings result in (mostly) unanimous votes.

Is AI making us dumber?

When I returned to the classroom for a one off last spring semester I was told by a newly retired professor that I could no longer require written assignments. Why I asked. He said “Because they never do their own work. It’s all AI.” Previously, I had required a news report critique due every other week in which the student analyzed a current event that we discussed in class and critically reviewed it. Students were also required to submit a term paper that counted for one fifth of the final grade on a subject that I approved. I encouraged them to find an issue, analyze it and then make a critical recommendation. I also encouraged them to prepare an outline and let me comment on it as well. That this exercise had value was confirmed one day when at lunch a person came up to me and said that he had been in my class ten ears before and the written reports were proving to be the one of the most valuable tool he acquired in his four years in college. He also said how he hated doing them at the time and regretted all the bad things he said about me on the teacher evaluations.

Fast forward to today. I tested using short answers, problems and essays. One student said that this was the first class in four years that was not multiple choice/true false. Most students complained and wanted to take the tests on their computers rather than write out the answers. When I got back the first exam I was shocked. All 53 were printed! No cursive at all. The one problem could be solved my computing 5% of $10,000. Fully one half of the class missed the problem. That ended my having them do computations. They were simply incapable of doing simple math. 

Don’t get me wrong. There were seven students in the class (of 53) who were very smart, who could do basic math but still could only print. I used to say that there were three types of people in the world, the 3 percent who make things happen, the 7 percent who know whats happening and the 90 percent who don’t have a clue what’s happening. I thought that the advent of readily available information at zero cost would change those percentages and there would be more in the know what’s happening category and less in the haven’t a clue category. Now I am not so sure. My casual observation is that those percentages may be the natural order of things, except that AI has made the 90 percent less capable and maybe dumber than previous generations.

Also I noted that not a single student was taking notes by hand. All were plinking away on their computers. In my case, taking notes by hand actually helped me remember and made learning easier. I wondered if this was just me or just my imagination. But lo and behold, in an article in the Wall Street Journal by Allysia Finley, “AI’s biggest threat: Young people who can’t think” the author state, “Growing research shows that handwriting engages parts of your brain that play a crucial role in learning and helps children with word and letter recognition. Taking notes by hand also promotes memory development by forcing you to synthesize and prioritize information. When you plunk away on a keyboard, on the other hand, information can go, as it were, in one ear and out the other. A study last year analyzed brain electrical activity of university students during the activities of handwriting and typing. Those who were handwriting showed higher levels of neural activation across more brain regions: “Whenever handwriting movements are included as a learning strategy, more of the brain gets stimulated, resulting in the formation of more complex neural network connectivity,” the researchers noted.”

What about printing instead of cursive? Frank Glassner in his blog, Compensation in Context tells us in “Dumb and Dumber: How America Graduated with Honors in the Death of Excellence (and became a Nation of Participation Trophies, Scrantons and Unparallel Parking) says “Cursive was more than pretty loops. It taught rhythm, form, and thoughtfulness. Each letter demanded patience. It was tactile, artistic, and dare we say—human. But we traded all that for a keyboard and autocorrect. And what do we lose when handwriting dies? Memory. Cognition. Creativity. Studies show that writing by hand strengthens brain development, improves focus, and helps encode knowledge. Typing is efficient. Writing is personal. One produces output. The other produces understanding.”

Another casualty from my old course was the reading list in the library. I don’t know if today’s students even know where the library is on campus. But no reading of real books. Instead they were given links to readings on the class internet site. It turned out that I could see who was accessing the site and who didn’t. Some did not look at it at all, most rarely and only a few read it daily,

It is no secret that by any metric our kids today are dumber. Test scores are falling so the education industrial complex simply eliminates the standards for grading in the name of “equity.” But that doesn’t help the kids learn and lowers the bar for all kids. Reading proficiency continues to fall resulting in a generation of kids who don’t read. Ask a young person what was the last novel that they read. You may hear the response “What’s a novel?” In the days of reading lists, students had to read real books. Now they seldom read a book in school and read books even less out of school. In 1984, 35 percent of 13-year-olds reported reading for fun almost every day.  In 2023, that figure was 14 percent with 31 saying that they never read for fun at all. 

So if not learning to read, write or critically think what are they being taught? Its global warming, gender diversity, critical race theory, racial/gender identity, socialism, anti-capitalism, America is evil, America is racist, white fragility, gender neutral words like “hxrstories” and “cisheteropatriarchy”, DEI and other items of critical pedagogy. 

Does all this necessarily mean that we as a nation are in trouble because the education industrial complex has given us a generation of kids who cannot write, don’t read and cannot think? That college students are like this should be alarming. Glassner reports that employers are finding that their new hires lack critical thinking skills, can’t write and cannot perform basic tasks that previous hires could do. Now the employers have to train new hires in remedial skills. If AI is cheaper and more efficient than hiring college graduates then the question is whether AI will replace this generation in the workplace. 

Lastly, my conclusion is that the ratios of those that make things happen, those who know what’s happening and those who haven’t a clue as to what’s happening won’t change. The only change is that they all, in particular the last group will be dumber than their predecessors. I am reminded of a joke in which a person was told that he was D-U-M-B. He said “dum bah?”

Weapon of mass destruction? 

Where have we heard this before? President Trump’s Director of National Intelligence testified before congress in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and even though the country was enriching uranium it was not being enriched to weapons grade levels. One would think that our spies might be telling the truth or at least the truth as they see it. Here is what Gabbard said to congress: “The intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” She said that we were closely monitoring Iran’s nuclear program. She also noted that the country’s “enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”

The president sharply disagreed. He left the G-7 conference in Canada (the 51^ststate where he chided the group for expelling Russia) and said “I don’t care what she thinks”. Given this put down one would guess that Gabbard would resign. Instead she said “President Trump was saying the same thing that I said.” “We are on the same page.” Since she didn’t resign, if I were Trump I would fire her. One for speaking on a sensitive issue without being vetted by me and two, knowing now that the congress, the press and the American people will not believe another word she says.

We know that Trump was suspicious of the intelligence agencies during his first term. He thought that they were part of the entrenched “deep state” that worked against him those first four years. The agency personnel and its leaders were “neocons” who advocated unilaterally spreading democracy throughout the globe using the military to project “peace through strength.” People like John Bolton, Robert O’Brien, Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley were in the last administration. None are in this current administration which instead is full of Trump loyalists. So Gabbard telling the congress one thing and then immediately contradicting herself with a straight face now devalues anything that the agencies say publicly. It is clear that Trump does not listen to them. What value are they if the president ignores them and no one believes them?

Yet the question remains as to whether Gabbard was actually telling the truth. Who knows? Is Trump? Who knows? What did you think about that “weapons of mass destruction” thing that got us into the war in Iraq? Trump has committed the US to bomb Iran. But what will be Iran’s response? Although the congress is doing their usual whining thing about not being consulted and the president conducting a war without their permission. They are essentially toothless. Iran has been conducting a shadow war against the US since 1979. From the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut in 1979 to the drone attack that killed three servicemen in Jordan in 2023, Iran has financed attacks on Americans through it proxies in Lebanon, Syria and throughout the Middle East. We would occasionally bomb somebody or something but never conducted a serious campaign against the regime. 

This time the American bombing was not in direct response to a terror act by Irani but to aid Israel in its effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities by assassinating its nuclear scientists and generals. Donald Trump, itching to bomb somebody, decided to help the Israelis do this. Will this degenerate into another Iraq with US ground troops? Trump says no but what happens if Khomenei orders the Irani military to attack American installations in the Middle East? What will Trump do then?

But back to the question about those weapons of mass destruction. Lt Col Robert Maginnis who is described as “an experienced and internationally known expert on national security” has written that Iran is not days away from building a nuclear bomb. Of course White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt who like all press secretaries is paid to lie says “Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon … and it would take a couple weeks to complete the production of that weapon.” Maginnis disagrees and says “This is not just a misstatement. It is misinformation—and it risks pushing the United States into a hasty and unjustified war.” Maginnis says that even if Iran had enriched uranium to weapons grade levels the country would still be a long way from producing a bomb. Here us what Maginnis says is required to have the bomb. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/robert-maginnis-dont-misled-iran-isnt-days-away-from-nuclear-bomb

1. Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU): Iran would need U-235 enriched to 90%, but that alone is insufficient.
2. Precision Shaping: The uranium must be machined into a flawless sphere, requiring high-end metallurgy and computing.
3. Explosive Lenses: Carefully placed charges must detonate simultaneously to compress the core—a method called implosion.
4. Trigger Mechanisms: These detonators must be precisely synchronized; even a microsecond delay renders the weapon ineffective.
5. Reflectors and Tampers: Elements like beryllium are required to maintain compression and sustain the chain reaction.
6. Weaponization: The bomb must be ruggedized into a functional assembly, including casing and electronics that can survive delivery.
7. Delivery Systems: The weapon must be fitted onto a missile, aircraft, or another platform capable of reaching its target.

Maginnis says that Iran does not have these capabilities or others that are necessary to produce the bomb. He also says that the feared Fordow facility is not a weapons lab but an enrichment lab.  He asks the question “Why strike now?” Why indeed?

Well it is June. Never mind.

I read where Trump bombed Frodo in Iran and I was wondering what he had against Hobbits. Then I found out it was Fordo – never mind.

I was at a restaurant and the white waiter took my beer to the wrong person. He is obviously a racist and thinks all black people look alike. Oh, you mean that’s not my waiter? Never mind.

My neighbor said his wife was leaving him because he was possessive and paranoid. Then he found out she was just going to get the mail. Never mind.

I went into a restaurant and ordered everything in Chinese. Then I found out it was an Italian restaurant. Never mind.

I started to get upset when I found out that Amazon was going to have a Pride Week sale in July. I thought June was Pride Month so why July? What were they going to sell– lip gross? Plus sized gowns? Platinum blonde wigs? Then I found out it was Prime Week not Pride Week – never mind.

Speaking of which:

Have you ever asked what does LGBTQ means?

         You never get a straight answer.

My 101 year old mother once thought LGBTQ was a sandwich.

What happens when a lot of LGBT people get in a line?

         You get LGBTQ

Fed Ex and UPS have mail planes. What do LGBTQs have?

         A biplane.

Do gay people ride bi-cycles?

What do you call a clandestine operation conducted by an LGBTQ agent?

         A trans-mission.

What is a LGBTQ cruise ship called?

         A trans-port

What is the LGBTQs favorite wine?

         Trans-port

Why did the trans person change her diet?

         She was a herbafore.

What is the movie about mutant Amazon trans superheroes called?

         Ex-Men

Why does Trump refuse to patronize a certain chocolate company?

         He thinks it uses Hershey pronouns.

What do you call a father who identifies as invisible?

         Trans-parent

Can a trans person be a mail man?

What do you call an LGBTQ-type Optimus Prime when he retires?

         A trans-former

What do you call an LGBTQ person who grows crops?

         A trans-farmer

Why can’t hackers decrypt LGBTQ code?

         It is non-binary

What do you call the sibling of an LGBTQ person?

         A trans-sister

What is the favorite vegetable in the LGBTQ community?

         A transplant

What do you call the writing of a non-binary person?

         Transcript.

What is the academic record of an LGBTQ student called?

         A transcript.

What do you call an LGBTQ cruise from New York to London?

         Transatlantic.

What do you call an adventure movie made for the LGBTQ community?

         Transaction.

What do you call the glove worn by an LGBTQ baseball catcher?

         A trans-mitt.

What do you get when you merge western and Asian LGBTQ communities?

         Transfusion.

What command do you give an LGBTQ dog?

         Transit.

What is the pelt of a non-binary animal called?

         Trans-fur.

What do you call the LGBTQ interpreter who is tardy arriving at a meeting?

         Translate.

What do you call a group of LGBTQ lions?

         A pride.

The NCUA: A Quorum of one?

The Supeme Court decided that Trump did have the authority to fire two presidential appointees. One was a member of the Labor Relations Board while the other was on the Merit Systems Protection Board. But the Fed was explicitly excluded from the order. The court said “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States.” The president then said “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him.” I guess he forgot all the threats he was making. But remember “Powell’s termination cannot come quick enough”? Then why doesn’t Trump just fire Powell and see what happens next?

There is another suit now being heard that may have implications for the Fed. It was brought by the two democrat board members of my old agency the National Credit Union Administration, Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka. Trump fired them although Harper was appointed by Trump during his first term. The NCUA board is appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate to fill expiring terms or to a new six-year term. The board was created by the Financial Institutions Act of 1978. The Act replaced the agency’s sole administrator who served at the pleasure of the president and created a three person bipartisan board. It was intended that two board members be of the same party as the president. One person is designated by the president as chairman. The board then names one other board member as vice chair. When the board was created, Jimmy Carter appointed me as the minority (no pun intended) member along with two democrats.

It is noteworthy that when the president fired the two democrat members he did not name their replacements. Since NCUA regulations require a quorum to act, the question is whether one constitutes a quorum. Harper and Otsuka do not think so but NCUAs lawyers opine differently. Mind you, the remaining board member is a republican and likely told the lawyers to issue an opinion stating that he can constitute a quorum of one. Not surprisingly, they have done so. They cited the act creating the board which said “A majority of the Board shall constitute a quorum.” Thus, with only one board member, the chairman contends that he constitutes a majority. He is operating on that assumption and is conducting the agency’s business as a quorum of one. His lawyers also said “The departure of two of our three NCUA Board Members has led to speculation within the credit union industry and trade press about the NCUA Board’s ability to exercise authority with the presence of only a single Board Member. Please be assured that the NCUA has precedent and standing delegations of authority in place to continue performing all operational and statutory requirements under the authority of a single Board Member.” Mind you if Harper and Otsuka were still on the board, the opinion would have been different.

It is apparent that the old board was not particularly one of comity. When I and other former board members were invited to attend the celebration of the 90^th anniversary of the signing of the Federal Credit Union Act, the republican member Kyle Hauptman was not in attendance. As such he is not in the above photo taken commemorating the occasion – I am on the far right. Hauptman clearly did not agree with some of the initiatives taken when Harper was chairman particularly with respect to DEI. Although those were removed to conform to Trump’s dictates, it is clear that Hauptman would have removed them anyway. He has also ordered a review of certain regulations that he opposed and now being a quorum of one, is likely to succeed in having them changed.

Harper and Otsuka are arguing in court that the intent of the congress was explicitly to remove the administration of NCUA from serving at the pleasure of the president by creating its three person board. Moreover they contend that the 1958 case Wiener v. United States demonstrates that agencies like NCUA with a nonpartisan, multi-member expert board enjoy removal protections. This makes NCUA special in their eyes and similar to the Fed Board (and the FDIC). “Congress structured all three agencies to operate independently for good reason: a stable financial system depends on independent regulators who act free from political interference, guided by expert judgment in line with statutory mandate,” Whether the Supreme Court agrees would give NCUA the protections that some are now giving the Fed. If the court orders Harper and Otsuka reinstated then that will settle the issue regarding firing Powell – unless the administration appeals to the Supreme Copurt. Then the Supreme Court would settle the matter once and for all. 

Random Thoughts #60

Is it just me but don’t you think that Linda McMahon looks a bit like the Joker?

Kristi Noem was hospitalized for an allergic reaction. She couldn’t possibly be allergic to false eyelashes or hair extenders could she?

The Fed’s Open Market Committee met and as I expected shot Donald Trump the bird. I thought that all the name calling and bellicosity by the president would force the Fed to tell him to go pound sand. Believe me, if the Fed had lowered rates the market would have lost faith in this Fed labeling it Trump’s puppet. Just goes to show you that if you can’t be fired by this president you can assert your independence and still keep your job.

The next Open Market Committee meets July 29-30. I bet they will lower rates (the Fed Funds target rate) then.

Trump said it again. He wants the Fed to lower interest rates to reduce the cost of the national debt. So its not about stimulating growth, is it? Here is his rant: “‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government, and the Fed Board is complicit. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had none. We should be 2.5 Points lower, and save $BILLIONS on all of Biden’s Short Term Debt. We have LOW inflation! TOO LATE’s an American Disgrace!” Again, Europe is cutting rates to cope with Trump’s higher tariffs and the slowing down in their export economies. Just the opposite of the situation created by Trump here. The rise in the cost of refinancing the debt was caused by Trump’s actions which have driven up Treasury bond rates. If Trump wants the cost of the debt, which will soon be over $1 trillion, to fall then he needs to eliminate his tariffs and more importantly cut federal spending. The Fed funds rate is not the reason why $11 trillion in debt is going to have to be refinancing this year at very high rates.

Tucker Carlson certainly beclowned himself for berating Ted Cruz for not knowing the population of Iran. Why is this a relevant question? Would Cruz’ position change if they had less (or more) people? What does this have to do with Khomenei getting the bomb? I am reminded of one time when I was an expert witness that the other side tried to discredit me. The attorney asked me “What is Regulation M?” Mind you the Fed has regulations from Reg A to ZZ. When I replied that I did not know, he said “Then how can you be an expert on the Fed?” That would be similar to questioning his legal expertise if he could not cite every line of Tennessee code.

The Fed reported a loss of $224 billion for 2024. The Fed pays interest on bank reserves and on its massive holdings of government securities. Prior to the runup in its balance sheet, the Fed made a profit and returned it to the Treasury. Its losses bring up an interesting question. Since the Consumer Financial Protection Board is funded out of the Fed’s earnings, shouldn’t it be shut down if the Fed makes losses? Trump ordered the agency shut down but the courts have temporarily sustained that action.

The Supreme Court just ruled that Tennessee’s ban on gender mutilation surgery for minors is constitutional. I guess “gender affirming care” sounds more sanguine but the reality is different. The left wing press called the ruling “divisive”. CNN called the ruling “a significant blow to transgender Americans” and said that ”Transgender advocates framed the ruling as a “devastating loss,” Mind you, we are talking about minors. If an adult wants to have transgender surgery, then nothing prohibits that. My guess is that the Tennessee law was the result of disclosures that Vanderbilt Hospital was performing such surgeries on children. Recall the study in the UK showed most children with gender confusion grew out of it. The study also indicated that many children with autistic spectrum disorder had gender dysphoria. Inflicting nonreversible surgery on these children is inhumane. Of course, all the court’s liberals voted against it with Justice Sotomayor saying “The court “abandons transgender children and their families to political whims. In sadness, I dissent.” Political whims? However, the question is whether the ruling is constitutional not whimsical.

Speaking of whimsical, the president just told ICE to chill on raiding agriculture, meatpacking, hotels and restaurants. Is construction next? Regardless, look for a flood of illegals to line up for jobs in agriculture, meatpacking, hotels and restaurants. The news reports that republican representatives from Trump’s farming states pressured the White House to ease off. Trump himself tweeted “FOCUS on our crime ridden and deadly Inner Cities, and those places where Sanctuary Cities play such a big role. You don’t hear about Sanctuary Cities in our Heartland!”  He also said “Biden allowed 21 million people to come into our country. Of that, vast numbers of those people were murderers, killers, people from gangs, people from jails — they emptied their jails out into the U.S. Most of those people are in the cities, all blue cities.” Somewhat surprisingly there has not hardly been a peep of criticism from the Trump haters who are caught in a quandary. They can’t applaud Trump for easing up on his deportation of illegals when they would really love to say that he is only doing this to help the dastardly Big Agriculture continue to exploit the “migrants.”

Exports, perhaps the only source of growth in the Japanese economy, fell last month. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba said “The series of tariff measures taken by the U.S., which accounts for approximately a quarter of global GDP and about 20% of Japan’s exports, are damaging profits of many Japanese companies, including the auto industry.”  However, Japan’s negotiators say that they cannot reach a deal because Trump’s negotiators can’t agree among themselves. It has been reported that open disagreements and confusion among Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have made negotiations difficult – to be kind. It is said that often the three argue and debate amongst themselves while at the negotiating table with the Japanese. Trump needs them to get their act together. I still say the Japanese should threaten to dump their $1 trillion in Treasury holdings if Trump doesn’t roll their tariffs back to zero.

Would it be racist to call Trump’s insistence on Chinese tariffs “gung-ho?”