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The Mighty Trump

Arguably the greatest contribution made by Donald Trump to the American presidency is to test the boundaries of the executive. Basically, he has adopted the approach of “stop me if you can.” He has attempted to fire and replace presidential nominees who were confirmed by the Senate with fixed terms to “independent” agencies that are technically under the executive branch of government. He successfully fired Gwynne Wilcox of the Labor Relations Board and Cathy Harris of the Merit Systems Protection board. The attempted firings of two FTC commissioners remain in dispute as their cases are still being litigated. At one of my old agencies, the National Credit Union Administration, Trump removed the two democrat members of the board – Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka – although he had appointed Harper to the board in his first term. They sued and were reinstated but were again removed as another court put their case on hold until the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook is heard by the Supreme Court. The outcome of the Supreme Court case will have implications going forward on all class of appointees to fixed terms on “independent” boards.

Trump has also sought to rule by edict and take a somewhat expansive view of his designated powers. His first day back in office he issued 26 executive orders soon followed by 226 more. He declared 12 national emergencies, often where obviously none existed just to be able to exercise certain powers – like the imposition of universal tariffs. The republicans with control of both the House and the Senate chose not to counter Trump and essentially let him do what he pleased. Where there was push back it came from the private sector in the form of lawsuit after lawsuit. 

Such an exercise actually is valuable because it allows the courts define the limits of executive power. Trump has pushed those limits. He has sold Venezuelan oil and put the proceeds into an offshore account in Qatar. He and his family have increased their wealth by billions since he came back into office. He has had the government take equity positions in private enterprises. He has intervened in corporate decisions, shaken the foundations of NATO, threatened to seize Greenland and tried to intimidate virtually every country on the planet. He has cut of all funding to the United Nations, withdrawn from the World Trade Organization and completely alienated our “allies’.  He has upended the security of the federal work force essentially firing over 400,000 civil servants.

Then there is the attempt to nationalize federal elections. Do you really want the Department of Homeland Security to create a federal citizenship list for each state and to direct the U.S. Postal Service to mail ballots only to those who appear on that list?

Some of the executive orders have made their way to the Supreme Court. Birthright citizenship is now being argued. The universal tariffs justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been heard and the court ruled that Trump’s illegal tariffs were indeed illegal. Trump and his people cited the 1798 Alien Enemies Act as authority for summary deportations off illegals and the warrantless searches of homes. The courts ruled against him. Trump authorized the destruction of suspected drug boats in the Eastern Caribbean despite the legality of the action. And of course he seized the ruler of an independent country and unilaterally is waging a war not endorsed by the congress. BTW, what happened to the War Powers Act?

Multitudes of critics say that he is abusing the office. I disagree. He would be abusing the office if he went beyond what was legally possible. But what is legally possible? I don’t blame him in testing the limits of the office. Powers exist to the executive that until Trump had not been fully explored. The presidency comes with all sorts of powers – emergency powers, unilateral trade authority, administrative control over vast swaths of economic life, and the ability to wage war at will. Even the demolition of the East Wing and the construction of the ballroom were based on Trump’s claim that the Congress has given him authority in existing statutes to construct his East Wing ballroom project and to do it with private funds. A Reagan appointed federal judge disagreed and put the project on hold. The judge said that although Trump occupied the White House he did not own it. He also said that under Trump’s interpretation of his powers, he could raze the White House entirely and put up another Trump Tower in its place.

Other presidents have put their toe in the water by issuing edits too. But Trump has jumped into the pool. The republicans in the Congress do not have the guts to confront him and the democrats are powerless to do anything but carp. It is up to the courts to define the limits of executive power and they are doing just that although Trump does not seem to acknowledge it. Recall he said when asked what limits his power and he said “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me, and that’s very good.” That, of course, is debatable.

So there are the courts to limit presidential power. But there are two other factors as well: the markets and public opinion. The markets are tanking given his war on Iran and public opinion is falling. In the past, he has heeded the warnings from the market – but less to public opinion. As of yet neither seem to be affecting his push for more power. Lastly as I have often mentioned before, the democrats should be supporting Trump rather than resisting him because when the next democrat occupies the White House, he, too, can follow Trump’s lead in expanding the power of the executive. 

Yet at his core, Trump more often than not seems like a schoolyard bully with a thin skin lashing out at any criticism.

Year of the rapper and the consolidation of power

The year of the rapper

Nepal like New York City just elected a young former rapper as its leader. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) won a landslide victory in Nepal’s election – the first held since last year’s youth-led protests toppled the then government. RSP’s Balendra Shah will be the country’s next prime minister. Like Peter Magyar’s party in Hungary the RSP is new, having started in 2022. Shah previously was mayor of Kathmandu. The youth-led protests that broke out last year forced the then prime minister KP Sharma Oli to resign only to run again in the new election. His party came in third. The RSP received 182 seats, falling short of achieving a two-thirds supermajority in the parliament’s lower house by only two seats. The Nepali Congress came in second with 38 seats, Oli’s party was third with only 25 seats and Oli, himself, also was defeated for his seat by a member of RSP. 

I wonder if Snoop Dogg has political aspirations? 

Consolidated power 

Hungary

Hungary just voted out Viktor Orbán after a 16 year rule. The left rejoiced and the media was jubilant calling Orbán a Trump favorite. Trump, knowing that Orbán was in trouble, had dispatched vice president Vance to Hungary to campaign for him. Orbán had endorsed Trump in 2024 – I wonder if that affected the Hungarian-American vote. So I guess Trump was repaying the favor and was trying to sway the American-Hungarian voters. Vance spoke to over 1,000 Orbán supporters at a rally at in Budapest telling the crowd: “We have got to get Viktor Orbán reelected as prime minister of Hungary, don’t we?” Trump sent a video message saying Orbán had his “complete and total endorsement” and was a “fantastic guy.”

Well apparently not since Orbán lost in a landslide to Peter Magyar’s insurgent Tisza party which was founded in 2020. He criticized Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” which was based on the government consolidating control over key state institutions, including the judiciary and media. Magyar who once had been a member of Orbán’s Fidesz party campaigned on corruption, healthcare, transport, and the restoration of Hungary’s ties with the EU and NATO. His victory should reduce Hungary’s role as a spoiler inside the EU. Orbán often sided with Putin against the EU. He voted against loans by the EU to Ukraine and received an exemption from Trump to buy Russian oil.

The left was overjoyed in one of Trump’s buddies being ousted. Chuck Schumer sent a congratulatory message to Magyar and tweeted “Pay attention, Donald Trump. Wannabe dictators wear out their welcome. November 2026 can’t come soon enough.” Apparently, Schumer must think that Magyar will joint Spain in being ruled by the left. But he is wrong.

But I am glad that Orbán is gone as well. I did not care for his continuing to centralize power and moving away from democratic rule. I know that is what the left rails that Trump is doing but don’t they realize that centralized power is at the heart of socialism too? I guess the left has forgotten about Obama ruling (like Trump) by executive order. The left cheers Orbán’s defeat for his opposition to immigration and gay rights. But although the left may be ecstatic, the Tisza Party is not on the left. It is a conservative, pro-European, populist party. Magyar’s stance on immigration may actually be stricter than Orban’s. Magyar actually criticized Orbán for admitting too manymigrants under Hungary’s guest worker program. We will have to wait and see if Magyar will return to a less centralized model for governing as promised.

My fear is that the Trump model will be emulated by the next democrat president who will continue to demand equity positions in private corporations, issue more executive orders, weaponize the DOJ and the rest of the federal bureaucracy against the democratic institutions that have made this country free and great. Magyar’s victory should be a signal to both the left and the right that the voters will tire of a nationalist strongman and move to reinstitute the democratic model.  It is also a warning shot to both parties that voters tire of a system where neither party addresses vital issues giving birth to a new party that displaces the old. Do I hear Tea Party anyone?

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe’s ruling party, Zanu-PF is trying to amend their constitution to replace public voting in presidential elections with selection by the parliament and extend the presidential term from five to seven years. The current president Emmerson Mnangagwa to stick around for a couple of more years. The opposition party say that Mnangagwa is seeking to entrench power and this is a “slow coup” stripping citizens of the ability to directly elect a president. Yet in countries like England, Canada and Nepal the leader of the country is the head of the majority party in the legislature. So we would have had Nancy Pilosi as prime minister. How would that have worked out?

Vietnam

Meanwhile, centralization seems to be a common theme. Vietnam has just named To Lam, the head of their communist party, as president. Previously, the country was governed with a collective leadership model. The power was distributed across the two positions to prevent consolidation of power. No more. Vietnam currently has both private enterprises and state-owned enterprises and Lam may want greater state control of the private sector. The markets may be concerned about increases in corruption as Lam expands state-owned enterprises. The markets also worry if Lam may inhibit the private sector leading to a decrease in economic growth. The consolidation of power raises an empirical question as to whether centralized governments are more prone to corruption than more decentralized governments.

Lower those rates, darn it! Or else.

Trump just won’t give up his witch hunt targeting Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Despite the Department of Justice’s subpoenas thrown out, the US attorney for the District of Columbia Judge Jeanine Pirro has continued the harassment of Powell. A couple members of her staff paid a surprise visit to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. They were turned away after being told that they could not enter without preclearance. Pirro issued a statement saying “Any construction project that has cost overruns of almost 80 percent over the original construction budget deserves some serious review. And these people are in charge of monetary policy in the United States?” Of course, Pirro did not comment on Trump’s ballroom being over 100 percent over budget. The Fed’s outside attorney objected to the visit in a letter to Pirro’s office saying “Should you wish to challenge that finding, the courts provide an avenue for you; it is not appropriate for you to try to circumvent it. I ask that you commit not to seek to communicate with my client outside the presence of counsel.”

Of course, Pirro will ignore the objection. I believe it is obvious what she is doing. She is trying to become the next attorney general. Recall that Trump was unhappy with Pam (Blondie) Bondi for her lack of aggressive pursuit of Trump’s adversaries when those cases were of dubious merit. Not so with Judge Jeanine! Trump has praised her for having the courage to continue the investigation of Powell. Some courage!

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has said that hearings for Trump’s nominee to replace Powell as chairman would not be held until the harassment of Powell was stopped. He relented and those hearing will take place starting on April 21. Trump, of course, has dismissed Tillis’ stance saying when asked if Tillis would vote for Warsh “He might not, but that’s why Tillis is no longer a senator.” Tillis is retiring but is still a senator and responded “I’m not dead yet.”

However, the hearings do not guarantee that Warsh’s nomination will get out of committee as long as the investigation of Powell continues. Powell’s term as chairman ends in May and it is likely that Warsh’s confirmation may not be completed by then. That would mean that Powell would stay as chairman until Warsh is confirmed. Powell also has given no indication that he will resign his position as a Fed governor which has two more years to run.

Trump had a cow saying that if Powell won’t resign then he will fire him. Powell says that Trump does not have the legal authority and that he has no intention of leaving the Fed until the investigation is over with “finality.” Trump said the investigation will continue even if it obstructs the confirmation of Kevin Warsh. Trump also said “If he’s (Powell) not leaving on time, I’ve held back firing him, I’ve wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial, you know. I want to be uncontroversial.” Trump “uncontroversial”? That will be the day.

But let us suppose that Warsh’s nomination is on-going when Powell is supposed to step down as chairman. What then? Let’s then assume that Trump says “You are fired!” Then what? Nothing if the Supreme Court has ruled that Trump cannot fire a Fed governor. But if the Supreme Court rules, however unlikely, that Powell can be fired as chairman – but not as a governor – then Trump cannot name a sitting governor as a replacement (likely Waller or Bowman). Instead, the Fed governors themselves are responsible for naming one of their own as an interim until a permanent successor can be confirmed. Then Powell who would still be a governor could be named interim in the ultimate put down of the president.

Trump’s effort to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook is still on the Supreme Court’s docket. The outcome of that case will go a long way in determining if the president can replace a Fed governor. I hope that Trump loses this case. It is shortsighted on his part and demonstrates even more that Trump is about Trump with little regard to the consequences of his actions. If he prevails, then in essence the Fed loses its independence and becomes a vassal of the executive. You can just imagine some future president replacing some or all of the seven governors if they do not bend to his wishes – capricious or not. Hey, how about that zero Fed funds rate, y’all?

Federal government waste and Larry Doby Day.

April 15 is noteworthy for two things. It is Tax Day and it is when Major League Baseball celebrates Jackie Robinson Day. First, Tax Day is a reminder of all of the time wasted filling out one’s taxes. The Treasury Department reports that 169 million Americans file individual income tax returns every year. On average, each spends about 12 hours and 37 minutes completing the forms. That is more than 2.1 billion total hours not devoted to productive activity. The New York Times points out that this translates to $94 billion per year or three times the GDP of Ireland. Since JD Vance is supposed to be investigating waste and fraud, maybe he should address the waste of complying with our burdensome Rube Goldberg tax code with its 2,652 pages and it’s over 70,000 pages of regulations, guidance and interpretations. A flat tax of 18 percent on all income with no exemptions and no exceptions would reduce all that to one sentence. Of course then all those tax lawyers and accountants would have to find something productive to do with themselves.

Also speaking of waste, a report from something called the Competitive Enterprise Institute says that “Federal regulation’s total compliance costs and economic effects are at least $2.153 trillion annually, and certainly vastly higher.” 

https://cei.org/studies/ten-thousand-commandments-2025/

I thought Trump was supposed to deregulate? But these numbers do not show it because the regulatory costs have remained virtually unchanged during his term. When Trump came into office he noted “the United States is drastically overregulated” and that “the Code of Federal Regulations contains over 48,000 sections, stretching over 175,000 pages.” Well even though there are now almost 500,000 fewer Federal employees, how many fewer regulations are there? Some put the cost savings of Trump’s deregulatory efforts at a piddling $15 billion which is a mere rounding error. Do you know that there are 445 federal agencies with the authority to issue regulations and rules? In 2025 those agencies issued 2,441 regulations. That was down from the 3,248 that were issued in Biden’s last year in office. Everything is relative. In 2025, 61,584 pages were added to the Federal Register which was actually the lowest total added since 1992. Thank goodness for small miracles!

Jackie Robinson  – Larry Doby Day

I have posted before about how much I hate Jackie Robinson Day where all players wear Robinson’s number 42. Again, I don’t hate Jackie Robinson. Quite the contrary, I admire him greatly. It is that I hate it that Larry Doby – a great player who is also in the Hall of Fame – who integrated the American League the same year that Robinson entered is ignored. Robinson started the year in Brooklyn while Doby came into the league after the all star break. I have suggested that everyone wear 42 except the Indians (Guardians) who should wear Doby’s number 14. Doby is another example that few people remember who was number 2. Who was the second man on the moon? BTW, I have four baseball jerseys, Doby, Hank Aaron (thanks to a great friend), Frank Robinson (Cincinnati not Baltimore) and Sam Jethroe – the first black player for the then Boston Braves who was the 1950 National League’s Rookie of the Year. To that point I have also suggested that there should be a day when all the major league teams were the number of their first black player.

How dare anyone criticize this president!

Trump’s posting on ex-MAGA supporters who criticized his war on Iran

“I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs. They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did! They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some “free” and cheap publicity. Now they think they get some “clicks” because they have Third Rate Podcasts, but nobody’s talking about them, and their views are the opposite of MAGA — Or I wouldn’t have won the Presidential Election in a LANDSLIDE. MAGA agrees with me, and just gave CNN a 100% Approval Rating of “TRUMP,” not Hand Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist! Or Megyn Kelly, who nastily asked me the now famous, “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” question, or “Crazy” Candace Owens, who accuses the Highly Respected First Lady of France of being a man, when she is not, and will hopefully win lots of money in the ongoing lawsuit. Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close! Or Bankrupt Alex Jones, who says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax. These so-called “pundits” are LOSERS, and they always will be! Now Fake News CNN, The Failing New York Times, and all of the other Radical Left “News” Organizations, are “hailing” them, and giving them “positive” press for the first time in their lives. They’re not “MAGA,” they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA. As President, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on World and Country Affairs and, after a few times, they go “nasty,” just like Marjorie “Traitor” Brown, but I no longer care about that stuff, I only care about doing right for our Country. MAGA is about WINNING and STRENGTH in not allowing Iran to have Nuclear Weapons. MAGA is about MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and these people have no idea how to do that, BUT I DO, because THE UNITED STATES IS NOW THE “HOTTEST” COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!”

President DONALD J. TRUMP

Responses:

Candance Owens on X: “It may be time to put Grandpa up in a home.”

Alex Jones on X: “Well, President Trump came out on Truth Social and attacked myself and all the original MAGA supporters today. And I’m just so sad that whatever’s happened to him has totally changed the man he once was, because he did so much good. I supported the old Trump who got so many good things done…I just feel sorry for him and pray that God touches his heart and soul, and free him from the demonic influences that he’s under.” 

Marjorie Taylor Green also on X: “President Trump has gone mad as he wages war against Iran, a broken campaign promise. I fought alongside Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones to help get Trump elected. And now he goes off on a rambling rant attacking all of us in one post. We NEVER changed, Trump did.”

Tucker Carlson’s response was in a note entitled “Is Israel Blackmailing President Trump?” adding “Establishment media never reports this, but the Israeli government has a storied history of blackmailing U.S. presidents. We decided to write about this after Trump published a Truth Social post attacking our company, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones, each of whom supported him for years. Rather than engaging in petty name-calling, we want to give the president some grace. He is facing a level of pressure that is dark enough to make him abandon his campaign promises and morph into the precise kind of politician he once vowed to destroy. He would not have let that happen unless his personal stakes were really high. We hope he overcomes.”

Later we will discuss the Pope and the president.

No deal Don Quixote!

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” U.S. demands had hindered reaching a deal. Not surprisingly, the US wanted the Strait to be opened and for Iran to give up its enriched uranium. Iran said no and Trump blasted:

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”

I thought the strait was already blockaded. So this is a double blockade? It seems that the Iranians let two vessels through that paid fees in Chinese yuan. Seems like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ regime in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to submit full documentation, obtain clearance codes and accept IRGC-escorted passage through a single controlled corridor.” Iran has said it wants to impose a toll on all ships passing through the strait under a long-term peace deal.

The president said no deal and our own blockade “will begin shortly. He said Iran “will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.” But I thought once Trump said that extortion was okay so long as he got a cut?

“They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear,” he said. “Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully ‘LOCKED AND LOADED,’ and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” The Iranians called that threat “stupid”.

BTW, the New York Times says that Iran would consider a US blockade of the Strait an act of war. Really? Then what does it consider what has been going on the past four weeks?

What is confusing is that the navy’s idea of a blockade doesn’t seem to align with the president’s. Trump said the blockade would target all ships trying to enter or leave the strait while US Central Command is saying that they would only target ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM is also saying that international vessels would have freedom of navigation to transit the strait. I am waiting to see what China will do – other than send weapons to Iran – since it is Iran’s largest trading partner and dependent upon its oil.

What has gone practically unnoticed in all this have been the humorous tweets by Iranian embassies mocking the president. Here is what some of them said regarding his profanity laden tweet on Easter demanding that Iran open the strait. 

The embassy in Zimbabwe said on X: “We’ve lost the keys.” 

The embassy in South Africa in South Africa said “Shh… the key’s under the flowerpot. Just open for friends.” 

The embassy in Bulgaria responded “Doors open for friends. Epstein’s friends need keys.”

In London, the Iranian embassy posted a Persian poem by Rumi about the dangers of placing a sword in the hands of a madman, accompanied by quote attributed to Mark Twain: “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

تیغ دادن دَر کَفِ زَنگیِ مَست بِهْ که آیَد عِلم، ناکَس را به دَست عِلم و مال و مَنصَب و جاه و قِران فِتنه آمَد دَر کَفِ بَدگوهَران مولانا مثنوی معنوی

The embassy in India tweeted “Swearing and throwing insults are how sore loser brats behave. Get a grip on yourself, old man!”

The Iranian embassy in Austria placed an “18+” graphic over a screenshot of Trump saying “POTUS has stooped to an unprecedented level of begging, laced with bitter, hollow rudeness and threats,” and the embassy issued a “further warning: shield all minors under 18 from exposure to Trump’s rhetoric.”

The embassy in South Africa also said “Humanity must know what kind of creatures are leading the American people” and urged US officials to “seriously think about the 25th amendment, Section 4”, referencing the US constitutional provision for removing a sitting president deemed unfit for office. 

Lastly, In Moscow, the Iranian embassy shared a Russian illustration showing Trump as Don Quixote charging at a windmill on a horse, with a sidekick shouting, “Boss, it’s just a windmill!”

Проблемы, которые выдумки Нетаньяху принесли Трампу и его перемещенному слуге Дон Кихот и Санчо Панса, нападающие на ветряную мельницу

How do you define victory?

How do you define victory? Here what Webster says: 

1. A success or triumph over an enemy in battle or war.
2. An engagement ending in such triumph.
3. the ultimate and decisive superiority in any battle or contest.
4. a success or superior position achieved against any opponent, opposition, difficulty, etc..

So given the statistics of Trump’s war on Iran, he did achieve victory. Iran’s own estimates show at least a $145 billion loss so far in the war. There has been significant military damage to its naval assets, ballistic missile program, nuclear

infrastructure, and personnel. Then there is the damage to its cities and infrastructure. More than 66% of missile and drone production facilities, as well as shipbuilding infrastructure were destroyed. In addition, over190 ballistic missile launchers were eliminated, with hundreds more rendered inoperable.

Strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities in Natanz, Yazd, and Arak, are believed to have set back development by an estimated 8 to 15 years. Defense secretary Hegseth said that the US has achieved a “historic victory on the battlefield.” “By every measure, we destroyed the Iranian military. In less than 40 days, using just a fraction of our capabilities, we defeated one of the largest armies in the world.”  Iran’s naval forces, air force, air defenses, and missile program had been “effectively destroyed.”

The president himself tweeted that Iran was “totally defeated” and “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability.” He also has said on social media that “The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both militarily, economically, and in every other way.” Iran’s military has been “literally obliterated. The air force is gone. The navy is gone.” “In two weeks we have decimated them.” 

Yep. That sure sounds like victory to me – and to Webster too. But note that “victory” did not include surrender. Despite being “100” percent destroyed somehow the Iranians keep firing off missiles and drones and have shut down the Strait of Hormuz. In fact US intelligence reports that Iran still has thousands of missiles that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas. Apparently they did not tell the president of this fact.

What about Trump’s demand that the U.S. would accept no negotiated settlement short of “unconditional surrender” and the demand for input into the choice of a new supreme leader? Trump tweeted that once Iran surrendered that the U.S. and “many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners” would “work tirelessly” to reconstruct Iran and its’ economy by bringing it “back from the brink of destruction” and “making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

So why is the US negotiating without any of those conditions being met by Iran? I previously posted that the Iranian leadership (whoever they might be) issued a victory statement in announcing the two week ceasefire proclaiming that its enemies had suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.” 

Apparently they didn’t know they had lost. Yes they have suffered staggering losses but it looks like they were prepared for that. Essentially they did not defend themselves, rather sending missiles and drones to attack US facilities, Israel and that of Gulf allies. To me it looked as if the Iranians were hunkering down to repel any ground attack rather than to sacrifice their forces in a direct confrontation with the Americans in the air and on the sea.

Although battered and bruised, Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and rather than the US achieving any of its stated goals, including regime change, the Iranians achieved a strategic victory. I don’t know if Trump realized that the Iranians likely had only one goal, that of survival. Iran’s regime is still in place. It still governs with an iron first. It still threatens its neighbors. And now it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had demanded that the Strait be opened or else he would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. Well the Strait is opened but only with the consent of the Iranians.  Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised ships “safe passage” through the strait for the two weeks but only “in coordination” with Iranian armed forces and “with due consideration of technical limitations.”

Look, I am no geopolitical expert. Nor am I an expert on military tactics. But it looks like taking out the top layer of Iranian leadership has led to the accension of more anti-American leaders with a more prominent role for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trump as is his wont first indicated that Iran’s demand that ships pay a $2 million toll  to cover the cost of damage inflicted by the war – might be okay if the US shared in it! Trump told ABC News on that the US may look for a “joint venture” with Iran to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz. Then of course he recanted and that they had better not charge the toll. By the way, he also had said that negotiations would only start on the condition that Iran agreed to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” But that didn’t happen as well since Trump sent Vance to negotiate while Iran still has control of the Strait and there are over 3,000 vessels still waiting for safe passage. 

Meanwhile, the “totally defeated” Iranians have rejected US conditions for a ceasefire at the negotiating table. Vance said “We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.” Trump says that that is okay. “We win, regardless,” he said. “We’ve defeated them militarily.” Now he says we will blockade the strait. Regardless, the Iranians did not sue for peace and I doubt if Trump’s blockade will change things. They did not come to the table cowering with their tails between their legs. The regime is still in power, albeit with different leaders. They still control the Strait of Hormuz. They still have thousands of missiles. They still have enriched uranium. So we may have won a decisive victory. But we have not yet won the war.

Stop the Arc d’Trump

The president’s ego keeps manifesting itself. First the monstrosity of a $400 million 90,000 square foot ballroom that is replacing the East Wing – and is using imported steel. He wants to spend $174 million more on renovations. I guess paving over the Rose Garden was not enough. But now comes the Trump arch a ghastly 250 foot tribute to his ego. Note that the Lincoln memorial is 99 feet tall just to give some perspective on how enormous this vanity arch is going to be. Just like putting his signature on US currency to infuriate his enemies, Trump wants to put up this monster as a gigantic middle finger to those who hate him and to say to generations to come “I was here!”

Something called the Commission of Fine Arts will review the thing and if true to its title should reject it outright. Trump tweeted “I am pleased to announce that TODAY my Administration officially filed the presentation and plans to the highly respected Commission of Fine Arts for what will be the GREATEST and MOST BEAUTIFUL Triumphal Arch, anywhere in the World. This will be a wonderful addition to the Washington D.C. area for all Americans to enjoy for many decades to come!” Note that “triumphal” contains “trump.” A White House spokesman said the arch “will enhance the visitor experience at Arlington National Cemetery for veterans, the families of the fallen, and all Americans alike, serving as a visual reminder of the noble sacrifices borne by so many American heroes throughout our 250 year history so we can enjoy our freedoms today. President Trump will continue to honor our veterans and give the greatest Nation on earth — America — the glory it deserves.”

Good grief. 

I guess he is going to have to suspend all ICE operations and deportations in the DC area until the project is completed. Will the Commission of Fine Arts approve this testament to ego and bad taste? Of course it will because last year Trump fired all the members of the Commission of Fine Arts (all appointed by Joe Biden) to replace them with a new slate of members to the commission that are “more aligned with President Trump’s America First Policies.” These are the folk – dare I call them stooges – who approved the ballroom, the renovations and will undoubtedly approve the Arch d’Trump, er I mean Triumphal Arch.

Munger on government failure. Powell on the debt. Are the poor really poor?

Munger on market failure and government failure

One of my favorite scholars is Duke’s Michael Munger, a leading thinker in the area of Public Choice. I have published several papers in that area but am no expert there. Munger was gracious enough to be the keynote speaker in the conference honoring my research – the “Dr. Harold A Black Academic Conference” sponsored by the business schools of the University of Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University and the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga held on September 8-10, 2022 at UTC.

I have written before that the left hates everything big – big pharma, big business, big oil, big tech – except big government. However, big government is more likely to experience “failure” than the market. Yet the left ignores that reality. BTW, when economists talk about market “failure” it is in the context where the market cannot price the product efficiently. One instance would be neighborhood streets. Should they be paid for by only those in the neighborhood who would erect a toll booth at the entrance for visitors? Or should they be paid for out of the general tax fund – by people who would never use them? What about government failure? As one text frames the issue “Imagine a world where government intervention always fixes problems perfectly—where every regulation hits its target, every policy achieves its goal, and every bureaucrat works solely for the public good.” That word does not exist because government can fail too.  In a recent publication Munger explores government failure and writes:

“I work and write in the field known as public choice. Public Choice began as an antidote to the naïve application of the “market failure” paradigm in which deviations from perfectly competitive markets always led directly to inefficiencies that markets themselves could never solve. This view was unchallenged in the 1950s and 1960s, and it worked to identify (mostly legitimate) problems with private, decentralized commercial processes. Markets are not perfect, so state action is required.

What was missing was any any theory of government failure. Under what circumstances—if ever—would state action likely be counterproductive? Government policy results from the digestion of imperfect inputs: the rational ignorance of voters, the concentrated interests of organized groups, and the principal-agent failures of unaccountable bureaucracies. Why would we expect imperfect government control and direction to be better than imperfect markets? This concern extended worries about market power to concentrations of power more generally.”

His essay can be found at

https://www.liberalism.org/p/seeing-with-two-i-s-states-markets-and-some-advice-for-us-liberals?hss_channel=tw-1968693666685534208

Highly recommended.

Jerome Powell admits that the debt is not sustainable

Its about time. Jerome Powell admits that the debt is not sustainable. In a lecture at Harvard, Powell doesn’t actually say that the $39 trillion debt is unsustainable but is on a path that is unsustainable. Powell, like everyone else, has no idea when it will become unsustainable but knows that one day it will be. Powell said “What’s clear is that our debt is growing much faster; the federal government debt is growing substantially faster than our economy. And that ratio is going up. And in the long run, that’s kind of the definition of unsustainable.”

With the interest on the debt growing to over $1 trillion, times a’wasting. Consider that in 2020 the interest payments were “only” $345 billion. But the explosion of federal spending under Biden and now Trump is rapidly turning the debt burden into a serious problem. Powell reminds us that fiscal policy is not the Fed’s job. However, the Fed has been a co-dependent to the Congress and engaged in monetizing the debt (purchasing Treasurys directly from the government) which aids and abets the increase in the debt when markets are reluctant to acquire more of the Treasury securities. Can the Fed just say no?

Powell points to the notion advanced by Ronald Reagan that the debt burden can be addressed not simply by paying down the existing debt but by growing the economy faster than the growth in the debt. But that has not happened for a number of years. This is nothing new. Even Janet Yellen warned that the

ever growing debt could reduce the Fed’s ability to address unemployment and inflation but restraint does not seem to be in Congress’s vocabulary. So although Powell does not know when we will arrive at that tipping point, he did say “It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.”

The War on Poverty slowed down the reduction in poverty

Speaking of government failure, what was the purpose of the “war on poverty?” Liberals will say it was to help assist those in poverty. Conservatives will say it was to sap the incentives for the poor to extricate themselves from poverty and make them dependent wards of the state. Turns out that both are correct. Johnson’s war on poverty was supposed to aid the poor. It did but not surprisingly it also provided disincentives for the poor to leave poverty. Research has shown that from 1939 to 1963, poverty fell by 29 percentage points from 48.5 percent to 19.5 percent. After the introduction of the war on poverty, despite sending $20 trillion, from 1963 to 2025 poverty fell by only 15.7 percent. 

Here poverty is measured in market income which includes income in kind (cash and noncash payments). Currently the most common measure of poverty overstates it and Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) has proposed to change that. Currently, the poverty statistics exclude transfer payments and state that poverty is at 11 percent. But after including transfer payments and health insurance subsidies that number falls to 1.6 percent! 

Of course the poverty industry will howl if the new, more accurate definition were adopted. But as Robert Rector has pointed out for years, that the poor are actually not very poor. They would be middle income in most of Europe and higher income in the rest of the world. Ninety-five percent of American households below the poverty line have electricity, indoor plumbing, a refrigerator, a stove, and a color television. More than 80 percent have an air conditioner, two-thirds own a washing machine and dryer. Everyone seems to have a cell phone. You want to see poverty? Then go to India, China, most of Africa and South America.

An excellent paper on this subject is Tyler Turman’s, “Measuring poverty correctly reveals a hard truth about the welfare state.”

Measuring Poverty Correctly Reveals a Hard Truth About the Welfare State

Highly recommended.

Dueling Statements and Iran’s 10 point plan

This is one of those instances where no commentary is necessary. Here are Trump’s and Iran’s statement on the ceasefire followed by Iran’s 10 point plan.

Trump’s statement on ceasefire:

“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Iran’s statement:

“The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historical, and crushing defeat. By the grace of the pure and holy blood of the Martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (Peace be upon him), the prudent measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the struggle and bravery of the warriors of Islam on the fronts—especially the historical, lasting, and heroic presence of you, the dear nation, on the scene since the very first days of the war—Iran has achieved a massive victory and forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.

In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasize that until the details of this victory are finalized, there remains a need for the steadfastness and prudence of officials and the maintenance of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people.

Islamic Iran, along with the brave mujahideen of the Resistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has dealt blows to the enemy over the past 40 days that the global historical memory will never forget. Iran and the Axis of Resistance, as representatives of honour and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, have given them an unforgettable lesson after a historical battle.

They have so crushed their forces, facilities, infrastructure, and all their political, economic, technological, and military assets that the enemy is now plunged into collapse and desperation, seeing no path before it other than surrender to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honourable Axis of Resistance.

On the first day, when the criminal enemies of Iran began this oppressive war, they imagined they would succeed in complete military dominance over Iran in a short time and force Iran to surrender by creating political and social instability. They thought Iran’s missile and drone fire would be quickly extinguished and did not believe that Iran could deliver such a powerful response beyond its borders and across the entire region.

Global evil Zionism had convinced the ignorant President of America that this war would finish Iran, allowing them—after removing this last bastion of humanity and mankind—to comfortably commit any crime against anyone they wished from then on. They dreamed of partitioning dear Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving Iranians immersed in chaos, instability, and insecurity for many long years.

The brave warriors of Islam and their courageous allies in the Axis of Resistance, despite their hearts being wounded and torn by the martyrdom of their Imam, decided—relying on Almighty God and following the Lord and Master of Martyrs—to give these enemies a historical lesson once and for all. They chose to take revenge for all previous crimes and create conditions where the enemy would forever cast away the thought of aggression against dear Iran, fully tasting the flavour of humiliation and abasement before the great nation of Iran.

With this strategy and relying on the unprecedented political and social unity established within the country, Iran and the Resistance initiated one of the heaviest hybrid battles in history against America and the Zionist regime, achieving all the objectives designed for this conflict during this period.

Iran and the Resistance almost completely destroyed the American military machine in the region; they dealt crushing and profound blows to the vast infrastructure and facilities that the enemy had built and stationed around the region over the years for this war against Iran. In regional dimensions, they imposed extensive casualties on the criminal American army, and within the occupied territories, they delivered heavy and shattering blows to the enemy’s forces, infrastructure, facilities, and assets.

They so constrained the field on all fronts that not only were none of the enemy’s main objectives realised, but the enemy realised approximately 10 days after the start of the war that it would in no way have the capability to win this war. For this reason, it began attempting to establish contact with Iran and requesting a ceasefire through various channels and methods.

The honourable nation of Iran must know that, by the grace of their children’s struggle and their historic presence on the scene, the enemy has been pleading for over a month for the cessation of the fierce fire of Iran and the Resistance. However, the country’s officials—because it had been decided from the very beginning that the war would continue until objectives were achieved,

including the enemy’s regret and desperation and the removal of long-term threats from the country—gave a negative response to all these requests, and the war continued until today, which is the fortieth day.

Furthermore, Iran has so far rejected several deadlines presented by the President of the United States and continues to emphasize that it grants no importance to any type of deadline from the enemy.

We now give tidings to the great nation of Iran that almost all war objectives have been realized and your brave children have driven the enemy to a historic helplessness and a lasting defeat. Iran’s historic decision, backed by the unified support of the entire nation, is to continue this battle for as long as necessary until its massive achievements are consolidated and new security and political equations are created in the region based on the acceptance of the power and sovereignty of Iran and the Resistance.

In this regard, and according to the prudence of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council—and considering Iran and the Resistance’s upper hand in the battlefield, the enemy’s inability to carry out its threats despite all claims, and the formal acceptance of all the rightful demands of the Iranian people—it was decided that negotiations be held in Islamabad to finalise the details. This is so that within a maximum of 15 days, with the finalisation of details, Iran’s victory on the field shall also be consolidated in political negotiations.

To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.

Now, the honourable Prime Minister of Pakistan has informed Iran that the American side, despite all outward threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has surrendered to the will of the Iranian nation. Accordingly, at the highest level, it has been decided that Iran will engage in negotiations in Islamabad with the American side for a period of two weeks, based solely on these principles. It is emphasized that this does not mean the end of the war; Iran will only accept the termination of the war once the details—given the acceptance of Iran’s preferred principles in the 10-point plan—are finalised in the negotiations.

These negotiations will begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10 (21 Farvardin), with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these talks. This timeframe is extendable by mutual agreement. It is essential that during this period, complete national unity be maintained and victory celebrations continue with strength.

The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the battlefield; it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the Leader of the Revolution and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive comments.

If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this massive historical victory together; otherwise, we will fight side-by-side on the battlefield until all the demands of the Iranian nation are met. Our hands are on the trigger, and the moment the slightest error is committed by the enemy, it will be responded to with full power.”

Iran’s 10 point proposal

The president said he believes Iran’s 10 point proposal “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Here is the proposal:

1. Strait of Hormuz to be reopened “under the co-ordination of the armed forces of Iran”
2. Establishment of a “secure transit protocol” in the Strait of Hormuz
3. The war against “all components” of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance to end
4. US forces to withdraw from “all bases and points of deployment within the region”
5. Full payment of compensation to Iran 
6. Lifting of all primary sanctions 
7. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 
8. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
9. Termination of all IAEA resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program
10. Release of all frozen Iranian assets and properties abroad

Call me naïve but which one is the “workable basis on which to negotiate?”