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There are two wildlife management areas on the highway going toward the family farm in Georgia. One day there were brush fires burning on them. I stopped and asked a ranger who was casually observing them, what was going on. He said it was a controlled burn and was a “cool fire.” Cool fire? Sounds like a 60s R&B band. He said that the brush would burn but the trees would not. That way they could guard against brush fires. Now how you get a fire to burn cool is beyond me. But the forest did not burn even though the base of the trees were singed. However, I know that if I tried this, I would burn down the whole county.

First I called my relatives who live in the LA MSA to see if they were all right. They are but have friends who were affected. Second, I thought about the cool fires of Jones County when I saw the horrors of the LA wildfire where the environmentalists have prevented burning of underbrush. There is a lot of finger pointing amongst all the hand wringing. One side is saying that the fires are a result of climate change. The other side is blaming state and local priorities. Of course, if the cause is climate change, I presume that there is nothing one can do to prevent the fires. But one could still limit the damage with the right policies. If the reason that the fire is not being contained is due to incompetence or priorities, the question is whether those will be addressed. At this writing, the fire is zero contained. Why? We all know that there is going to be a fire season in California. Why weren’t they prepared? Here are some of the reasons.

1. The fire hydrants ran out of water. But why?
2. The mayor cut the fire department’s budget $17.6 million. The fire chief said that they were understaffed, under-resourced ad underfunded.
3. A key reservoir was taken offline for maintenance (during fire season?)
4. One of the firefighting aircraft was disabled after colliding with a drone
5. The CEO of LA’s department of water and power responsible for the water pumping facilities and hydrant system was incompetent and focused on “advancing the department into 100% clean energy”. She was also focused on equity and social justice to “right the wrongs that we’ve done in the past from an infrastructure perspective.” I guess the fire hydrants and reservoirs in LA are racist.
6. The fire chief who was hailed as the first LGBTQ person in that position spent some of her limited funds to create a DEI bureau. She wants to hire more women and gay firefighters. The DEI head said that “You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency whether it’s a medical emergency or a fire call, that looks like you.” Huh? How would they know to send a bunch of elderly black bald male firefighters with white beards to my house?
7. The water from the Sierra Nevada snow pack doesn’t get stored and is flushed out into the Pacific Ocean.
8. The state’s priority is to focus on green energy rather than renovating the aging LA water infrastructure.
9. Too little money is spent on wildfire mitigation with $2.6 billion while $14.7 billion is allocated for clean energy transition.

And the venerable Maxine Waters blames the rich for the fires. Excuse me – the rich? Yes she said “The first thing we’ve got to understand is, services cost money and we should be willing to get the richest people in this country, the richest one percent that is protected, make sure they pay their fair taxes so that we can have the money to provide the services.” Does this mean she wants the rich Californians to be taxed more or is she saying that the rest of the country should subsidize California? Regardless, the statement is typical Maxine Waters except she forgot to say that either the fire was racist or racism was the blame for the lack of containment. The state has a budget of $300 billion. You would think that they would be taking a hard look at their spending priorities. BTW how is that $100 billion bullet train coming?

It will be interesting to see if anyone pays the price for this debacle. The mayor, the fire chief, the city council, the state government are all the blame. They all should either resign or be fired. If they stay in power, then the citizens have endorsed their priorities of green energy and DEI over safety. Another interesting question is what will be the impact on Gavin Newsom’s presidential ambitions?

But thank goodness for the cool fires of Jones County, GA.

A good friend sent me the following. It is from 2016 but is as current as today’s headlines.

Canada Building a Wall to Keep Out American Leftists Fleeing Trump’s America

Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.

Santa Monica Observer

COMMUNITY, DIVERSITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND OTHER OVERUSED WORDS

November 18, 2016

The flood of Trump-fearing American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week. The Republican presidential campaign is prompting an exodus among left-leaning Americans who fear they’ll soon be required to hunt, pray, pay taxes, and live according to the Constitution.

Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.

“I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn,” said southern Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota. “He was cold, exhausted and hungry, and begged me for a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn’t have any, he left before I even got a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?”

In an effort to stop the illegal aliens, Greenfield erected higher fences, but the liberals scaled them. He then installed loudspeakers that blared Rush Limbaugh across the fields, but they just stuck their fingers in their ears and kept coming. Officials are particularly concerned about smugglers who meet liberals just south of the border, pack them into electric cars, and drive them across the border, where they are simply left to fend for themselves after the battery dies.

“A lot of these people are not prepared for our rugged conditions,” an Alberta border patrolman said. “I found one carload without a single bottle of Perrier water, or any gemelli with shrimp and arugula. All they had was a nice little Napa Valley cabernet and some kale chips. When liberals are caught, they’re sent back across the border, often wailing that they fear persecution from Trump high-hairers.

Rumors are circulating about plans being made to build re-education camps where liberals will be forced to drink domestic beer, study the Constitution, and find jobs that actually contribute to the economy.

In recent days, liberals have turned to ingenious ways of crossing the border. Some have been disguised as senior citizens taking a bus trip to buy cheap Canadian prescription drugs. After catching a half-dozen young vegans in blue-hair wig disguises, Canadian immigration authorities began stopping buses and quizzing the supposed senior citizens about Perry Como and Rosemary Clooney to prove that they were alive in the ’50s.

“If they can’t identify the accordion player on The Lawrence Welk Show, we become very suspicious about their age,” an official said. Canadian citizens have complained that the illegal immigrants are creating an organic-broccoli shortage, are buying up all the Barbara Streisand CD’s, and are overloading the internet while downloading jazzercise apps to their cell phones.

“I really feel sorry for American liberals, but the Canadian economy just can’t support them,” an Ottawa resident said. “After all, how many art-history majors does one country need?

https://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/11/18/news/canada-building-a-wall-to-keep-out-american-leftists-fleeing-trumps-america/2268.html

https://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/11/18/news/canada-building-a-wall-to-keep-out-american-leftists-fleeing-trumps-america/2268.html

There they go again

I am writing this as winter storm Cora is dumping snow on my driveway. I didn’t even know that winter storms had names. But lo and behold, they do. It’s the brainchild of the Weather Channel. I expect that in the future there will be a winter storm Cantore. Here are this year’s names:

Anya

Blair

Cora

Demi

Enzo

Freya

Garnett

Harlow

Iliana

Jett

Kingston

Lola

Marisol

Nyla

Omari

Pascale

Quentin

Roman

Spencer

Theo

Usman

Vincenzo

Wilhelm

Xia

Ygenny

Zahir

Obviously the Weather Channel naming bureau is populated by a bunch of anti-black racists – well Omari is passable. Why racists? Well back on August 1, 2021 in the Knoxville Focus I wrote “In 2013 Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee labelled the naming of hurricanes as racist and wondered why the National Hurricane Center didn’t have black names for hurricanes. They have “white” names and Hispanic names but no black names.” Look at the names for the  2025 hurricanes and there is not a Lebron, Jaquan, Quinshon, LaTeisha  or the 40 or so variants of Jalen to be found. Here are the names from

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy I thought Biden had issued an edict that all federal agencies must aggressively pursue an agenda of diversity, equity and inclusion? The White House required each federal agency to submit detailed DEI progress reports regularly, appoint a chief diversity officer, and create agency equity teams whose leaders were tasked with “delivering equitable outcomes” In order to create a whole-of-government equity agenda.” Whatever all that means. Somehow that edict obviously did not make it to the National Hurricane Center except that Chantal and Tanya are marginally black names. One way to rectify this egregious wrong is simple: just put “La” in front of all the names so that the list is now:  LaAndrea LaBarry LaChantal LaDexter LaErin LaFernand LaGabrielle LaHumberto LaImelda LaJerry LaKaren LaLorenzo LaMelissa LaNestor LaOlga LaPablo LaRebekah LaSebastien LaTanya LaVan LaWendy

Only Me?

Am I the only one who thinks that merchants watch what I buy and then discontinue the items? When I had a Walmart card and would go to their website it showed all my purchases using their card. Then all of a sudden they stopped carrying my favorite salsas, mustards and books. The same was true at Sams. There my favorite candy, tea, chicken broth, protein bars and cargo pants suddenly vanished. When Sams put in a gas station nearest to me, they didn’t include diesel fuel yet the Sams 30 miles away carries diesel. Of course the reason they don’t carry diesel is because I have a Ford F-250 diesel pickup. The Sams far away carries the Greek yogurt I like but not the Sams closest to me. 

I ditched my Walmart card knowing that now they can no longer follow my purchases. I still use my Sams card because of Sams cash and hope that they will still carry the toilet paper, paper towels and bottled water that I buy. I also have a home at the family farm in Georgia. There we use bottled water exclusively. Of course the Sams in Macon does not carry the gallon jugs of water that we use at the farm. So I have to buy them at the Sams in Knoxville and take them down to the farm. I know that if I stop buying the water, that they will start carrying it in Macon. The same is true at Kroger where I use their credit card. They send me coupons for the things I buy. I use them. But they stopped carrying my yogurt, the chocolate peanut clusters, discontinued my cereal, hot sauce and their tasting bar stopped carrying the beer I like.

Also why is it that virtually every time I walk into a store and go to the register, the computers go down? It got so bad at my doctor’s office that the receptionist used to joke (I think) that they knew when I was coming to my appointment because the computers would crash. Speaking of which, aren’t you glad that Bill Gates was not an airline engineer? 

At the grocery store, they always either run out of tape when I get to the register or all my tapes have that red stripe on them indicating that they are about to run out. Naturally, the person in front of me always has an item that won’t scan or has only one credit card and it keeps getting rejected. I’ve gotten to the point where I just apologize to the cashier because of the problems that I cause when I walk up to the register.

I also have this thing with elevators. When I walk into the elevator bank, more often than not the elevators open and no one comes out. This used to bother me but now I expect it. Its like the elevators are saying “Hi HB.” However, the one thing that always bothers me is that if I am at the elevators and a (white) woman is walking toward them, she will either not get on the elevator with me or will walk up the stairs. I don’t think that I have ever looked particularly threatening, even when I used to ride my motorcycle to work wearing full leathers. Actually, my other half told me my leather pants were what attracted her to me. I find it hard to believe that a woman feels safer in a stairwell than in an elevator with me. 

But I am used to stuff happening to me. Its gotten to the point where I expect it. Once my youngest granddaughter said shaking her head “only you Granddad, only you.” Case in point is that we were in a skybox at a Georgia football game and she was talking with a vice president of a large sports retailer. I chastised him saying that I went on their website looking for a fitted cap with the new Georgia bulldog logo and none was to be found. He then opened up a box that he had brought in to give to the athletic director and pulled out a prototype of the exact cap and said “Can you wear a 7 ½?” It was my exact size. My granddaughter said “only you Granddad, only you.”

Body wash and RFK, Jr

Life is full of many mysteries. For the longest I wondered what was “body wash”? Then someone told me it was liquid soap. Now why anyone would want to use a liquid rather than a bar of soap is beyond me. I guess they like seeing money wash down the drain because they will get fewer showers from a bottle of “body wash” than from a bar of soap. Another mystery is the avalanche of prescription only drugs advertised on TV. The warnings take longer than the commercial, but the ads are targeted to the public and not to doctors. You cannot walk into the pharmacy and getover the counter any of the ED drugs, Lyrica, Eliquis, Humira, Latuda, Xeljanz, Celebrex, or Chantix. (Who thinks of these names, anyway?) Yet the pharmaceutical industry spends $3.5 billion a year advertising prescription drugs to consumers. This is 76 percent of all their advertising dollars. It must be effective or else they would not spend all that money. I guess they figure that a person who has a particular condition will see an ad for a particular drug and then go ask their doctor for a prescription for it assuming that the doctor would not prescribe it.

The United States and New Zealand are the only countries that allow this type of advertising. Generally, advertising is intended to attract customers to the product. The advertising for drugs does the same but also must carry with it possible risks. None of this was legal until 1997 when the FDA authorized it. Perhaps it is not surprising that the FDA head who approved the ads went to work for a pharmaceutical company when he left the government.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, Trump’s nominee for the Department of Health and Human Services, wants to ban this advertising. He claims that the advertising leads to higher healthcare costs and over prescription of medications. Kennedy says “The constant barrage of drug commercials is not only annoying but also detrimental to public health. It’s time we put an end to this practice and prioritize patient well-being over corporate profits.” Sounds like Bernie Sanders.

That seems like an empirical question so is it true? Is drug advertising detrimental to public health? Research has shown that drug utilization is highly responsive to advertising exposure. Increased advertising also leads to more doctor visits per year. There was a positive association between exposure to drug advertising and intention to switch medications or engaging in behavior to find out more about the medication. One study finds “that advertising benefits both consumers and companies advertising the products. Consumers benefit through increased adherence to medications, greater engagement with the healthcare system and use of generic medications. Companies benefit from greater sales of their products and more favorable consumer opinions of the industry. We did not find much evidence that advertising discouraged healthy lifestyles or other non-drug treatments. We also found that price disclosures in advertisements, which have been suggested by policymakers, will have little effect on consumer behavior.” The study concludes that advertising benefits both consumers and pharmaceuticals. “In short, restrictions on advertising are not a silver bullet for reducing inappropriate use of drugs because these restrictions will also likely reduce appropriate use and reduce patient engagement. This body of research suggests that policymakers should proceed with caution as they design proposals to restrict advertising.”  

A clinical study on antidepressants found that the medications were prescribed far more often when the patients requested them.” In this community-based randomized trial, antidepressants were prescribed far more often when patients requested them. In addition, patients portraying major depression and making either brand-specific or general requests were more likely than patients making no request to receive minimally acceptable initial depression care. These results underscore the idea that patients have substantial influence on physicians and can be active agents in the production of quality. The results also suggest that DTC advertising may have competing effects on quality, potentially averting underuse while also promoting overuse.” https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/200780#google_vignette

How about that for weasel words? “Potentially averting underuse while also promoting overuse?”

In general, research shows that advertising is effective in that more advertising leads to more requests for the advertised medication which leads to more prescriptions. However, there is still the question as to whether the medications were necessary or not. Interestingly, research has also shown that the use of generics is not adversely affected by advertising.

Thus, although it is well documented that the price of advertised prescription drugs in the United States is over three times that on average for developed countries, generic drugs are generally cheaper in the US and ninety percent of all prescribed drugs are generic. I wanted to compare the US with New Zealand or New Zealand with other countries but could not find any data. However, I am not certain that I would have learned anything because I am not versed in the nuances of drug pricing. There are the insurance companies, copays, Medicare, Medicaid, government and private layers between the drug companies and the ultimate consumer. So the final cost direct to the consumer is rarely the list price of the drug. I don’t know how to compare apples with apples. Are we comparing the same drugs? Are drug companies more profitable in the US than in other countries? Many countries have price controls on drugs but that results in fewer drugs being available to the public. In the UK, their national health service will not pay for any therapies whose costs exceed $50,000 per year. Do we want that? Only 1 out of every 12.5 potential drugs ever reach patients, the average drug takes 11-14 years to develop, and the costs of bringing a drug to market are $1 – $2.5 billion. The drug companies always say that price controls would inhibit research on new drugs. 

In economics we study trade offs. With drugs we are looking at the trade off between today’s prices and profitability and citizens’ health in the longer run. Here the question is whether the lowering of drug company profits and drug prices today are worth the likelihood that more specialized medications for rare medical conditions will not be developed in the future. Any suggestions?

Biden’s Farewell Gifts

Biden is certainly going out with a bang. He commuted the sentences of over 1,500 prisoners. He then took off federal death row all inmates but three. He permanently removed 625 million acres of offshore waters from oil and gas leasing. There is some question as to whether a president can bar future presidents through such an action so expect this edict to be challenged. He banned natural gas tankless hot water heaters that make up 40 percent of the market. The leading manufacturer of the water heaters just finished the construction of a $70 million factory in Georgia that manufactures those water heaters and says that the facility will be rendered useless. Look for Trump to reverse the ban. 

Then there are the awards. First Biden gives out 20 Presidential Citizens Awards. The recipients were 

Mary Bonauto – Gay rights activist

Bill Bradley – Former US Senator and basketball star

Frank Butler – Battlefield trauma innovator

Liz Cheney – Vice chair of January 6 committee

Chris Dodd – Connecticut senator 

Diane Evans – Founder of the Vietnam Women’s Memorial Foundation

Joseph Galloway – Vietnam war correspondent

Nancy Landon Kassebaum – Kansas senator 

Ted Kaufman – Delaware senator

Carolyn McCarthy – New York congresswoman

Louis Redding – Civil Rights attorney

Bobby Sager – Photographer

Collins Deitz – Delaware judge

Eleanor Smeal – Women’s rights activist

Bennie Thompson – Mississippi congressman and Jan 6 vice chair

Mitsuye Tsutsumi – Japanese American activist

Thomas Vallely – Founder of Fulbright University Vietnam

Frances Visco – National Breast Cancer Coalition

Paula Wallace – Savannah College of Art and Design

Evan Wolfson – Gay rights activist

Clearly, the awards to Liz Chaney and Bennie Thompson generated the most buzz. Here Biden is throwing a middle finger at Trump supporters and Trump himself. It is surprising that he didn’t include Fani Willis and Letitia James.

Biden then handed out nineteen Medal of Freedom Awards, the nation’s highest civilian awards.

Jose Andres – Spanish chef and founder of World Central Kitchen

 Bono – U2 vocalist

Ashton Carter – Former Secretary of Defense

Hillary Clinton

Michael J. Fox – Actor

Tim Gill – Gay rights activist

Jane Goodall – Ethologist

Fannie Lou Hamer – Civil Rights activist

Magic Johnson – Basketball star

Robert F. Kennedy

Ralph Lauren- Fashion Designer

Lionel Messi – Soccer player

Bill Nye – the Science Guy

George W. Romney – Former governor of Michigan

David Rubenstein -Chairman of the Carlyle Group

George Soros

George Stevens, Jr – Founder of the American Film Institute

Denzel Washington – Actor

Anna Wintour – Editor of Vogue

The Nation’s Highest Awards go to this group? Obviously the shadow presidents must love tapas, sports clothes and movies. The flash points are obviously Hillary Clinton and George Soros. But Bono? Bill Nye? Lionel Messi? Actually one could question the entire list although I like Fannie Lou Hamer, Jane Goodall and Michael J. Fox for his work on Parkinson’s. But the end of this administration can’t come soon enough.

The Fed’s Michael Barr is resigning as vice chair for supervision. Who, you say? And so what? The Fed has a chair, Jerome Powell but has two vice chairs. One is Philip Jefferson and the other is Michael Barr. It is not clear that Jefferson has any specific duties as vice chair but Barr does in overseeing the Fed’s bank regulatory function. Barr’s term as vice chair ends in 2026 while his term as a governor doesn’t end until 2032. He says he will remain a governor which means that Trump will have to appoint a sitting governor as the vice chair for supervision. All signs point to Michele Bowman.

Barr was the Wall Street Journal’s least favorite Fed governor and was also in Trump’s crosshairs. The Journal repeatedly criticized his efforts for stricter regulation. Barr led the Fed’s unsuccessful attempt to strengthen banks’ capital requirements and was seen as Elizabeth Warren’s governor. Of course, Barr is just one governor and the majority of them have to sign off on his actions. Yet he is the only one pilloried by the banking industry and its press. The Wall Street Journal notes that Mr Barr had a hand in structuring the Dodd-Frank Act which authorized Warren’s brainchild, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and created the position of vice chair of supervision. The Journal states that “In his view, the 2008-2009 financial panic resulted from too little regulation, never mind the government-driven housing bubble, Fed policy that was too easy for too long, and sleepy bank examiners.” The Journal attributes bank failures such as Silicon Valley Bank to Mr Barr while excusing the Fed’s bank examiners and the other governors. In fact much the blame for the failure of SVB lies with the incompetence of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and its DEI president. Curiously, the Journal also implicates Mr Barr in the failures of Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. But those banks were regulated by the FDIC and not by the Fed. One would think that the Journal could have been more honest in its reporting. I am not defending Mr Barr but am only pointing out that he is a convenient scapegoat for the failures of the entire Fed Board, including Jerome Powell.

Barr pushed significant regulatory changes within banking, mostly associated with the riskiness of balance sheets. But Jay Powell supported his recommendations. Some have written that Barr’s vision was that which democrats have of bank regulation, namely more oversight and stricter rules concerning capital. The other democrats on the Fed Board are said to share that vision. Currently, there are four democrats on the board and three republicans (including Jay Powell). Whether the Fed will change direction even with a change in the vice chair position is not obvious. However, one thing is clear. Unlike some appointments, Barr was eminently qualified to oversee supervision. Prior to coming to the Board, he was a professor of law at the University of Michigan specializing in financial regulation and international finance. He also had served as the Department of the Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial institutions in the Clinton Administration.

Trump and members of his supporters have been critical of Barr and his role at the Fed and was said that they would seek to fire Barr. By Barr resigning he avoids a potential legal battle over whether Trump can fire him (or Jay Powell) while serving his term. Barr stated “The risk of a dispute over the position could be a distraction from our mission. In the current environment, I’ve determined that I would be more effective in serving the American people from my role as governor.” I have no doubt that Barr will continue to influence regulatory policy from his position as a governor and let the new vice chair for supervision catch all the slings and arrows that go with that position.

Deer, Deer Everywhere – except in my freezers

Deer season has ended and for the first time in 50 years, I did not kill a deer. I did shoot one but did not find it. I should have trained Lili, my German shorthaired pointer, to follow a blood trail but I didn’t. Anyway, there was no blood trail to follow. There was some blood where it was shot but no more. I could have sworn that it was a righteous shot taken at 75 yards. The deer went out of sight down a ridgeline and I followed the scuff marks to the creek. The deer then went into the creek – a ruse to hide its scent from trailing dogs – and I could not find where it emerged. So I checked my gun and found it was off 4 inches at 50 yards. How the scope got knocked off is one of life’s mysteries. That means the deer was gut shot and became coyote food rather than Harold food. I was going to look again the next day but it rained all night erasing all possible sign. I don’t think I slept well for another couple of days. I told my other half (who said maybe I was just getting old) that if I could not shoot better than that I would give up hunting.

As to the deer, I was overrun with deer during bow season. I took pictures of 67 deer and probably saw a dozen more. But for the first time there was not a single buck over 6 points. Only does and fawns. I only saw immature deer and momma does with fawns. I don’t break up family units. When gun season came, the does chase away the little ones so I usually will take adult does and mature bucks. Only this year, I did not see a single buck – even during the rut – and saw only smallish deer without antlers. What happened to the big does? I almost took a shot at what at first looked like a large doe, but it turned out to be a button buck. I passed.

I was hoping for a great year. During the off season, I kept a feeder full of protein and corn to attract and keep the deer on property. Perhaps it was a bad omen because of the 800+ photos taken on a trail camera, all the pictures of bucks were taken after dark. Only does, squirrels and turkey were seen during the day. As usual my food plots were a total failure. I don’t understand how my grandfather grew such beautiful and bountiful crops in that red Georgia clay using a single blade plow and a mule. My mother also had the touch. I can’t grow weeds. But my other half says I look good on my Kubota tractor so I keep trying. I have had the soil tested, added lime and fertilizer to no avail. I think its because I have a brown thumb. My neighbor told me that the deer love hostas. My vet says that he tried to grow radishes but the deer cleaned him out. Maybe I will try growing hostas and radishes in the spring. But given my luck, they will all fail to grow.

I once told the local ranger about my bad year and he said “Shoot the does – even the small ones.” Georgia’s limit is 10 does and two antlered bucks. By my not shooting the does he said that I simply have too many small deer on my property. Since venison is the only red meat I eat and I feed it to Lili, we will go without until next season. The last time I ran out of venison, I gave lean ground chuck to my dogs and they wouldn’t eat it. I don’t intend to run out again. So no more Mr. Nice Guy. Starting in bow season this next time, I will shoot does – even if they have fawns. The fawns are weaned by this time and can survive without their mother. I am going to put aside my previous standards in order to thin out the herd and fill my freezer. I still won’t take immature bucks but hopefully the big ones will decide to stop by.

Again, I get no greater pleasure than being able to feed myself from the land of my ancestors. I have not eaten beef or pork since 1971 and don’t intend to start now. I feel no guilt being at the top of the food chain. It takes some skill and a bit of luck to successfully hunt. When my mother was alive and I would come back empty handed, she would ask didn’t I see anything. When I said yes, but I let them walk, she would ridicule me saying that I might as well stayed home. I would answer that yes my odds of killing a big deer were only slightly greater if I went in the woods rather than staying in the living room reading a book. But I would miss all the pleasure I derived from being in the woods. She never understood being from a time and a culture where they would kill all the rabbits, squirrels, possums and racoons they could in order to help them survive. I remember having squirrel in gravy with biscuits but never cultivated a taste for possum stew (which my grandfather loved). Deer were rare and there were no turkeys in those days. In truth, mother was pleased that we had progressed to where we did not have to kill everything I saw in order to not go hungry. It was progress, much like her grandmother living with them at the farm and marveling at how far they have come. Her grandmother was a slave. Still I miss my mother’s ridiculing me.

President Grassley?

To most everyone’s amazement, Mike Johnson was elected speaker on the first ballot. As promised, Thomas Massie voted against him. One member voted for Tom Emmer and another voted for Jim Jordan. But those two flipped their votes to Johnson making him speaker. I thought that Chip Roy might vote against Johnson to spite Trump who clearly dislikes Roy, but no. Roy voted for Johnson. All it took to block Johnson were two republican votes. In the end, only Massie among the republicans was in the “no” column.

So why did Johnson sail through on the first ballot and not have a repeat of the fiasco of last year? Some say it was because Trump was solidly behind Johnson. Don’t believe it. Trump wanted the debt ceiling raised and twenty “more MAGA than Trump” republicans voted against it. Surely at least one of those could have voted with Massie against Johnson who has incurred the ire of the hard right for his having to compromise with the democrats to get anything through the House that would pass the Senate. Remember that there are those in the Freedom Caucus who would like the House to pass bills that have no chance of becoming law because the Senate was majority democrat and Biden was president. Now that the Senate is in republican hands and Trump will be president, it will be interesting to see what type of legislation comes out of the House.

The real reason there was no revolt against Johnson and multiple ballots this year is fairly obvious. This year, we install a new president. The House convened on January 3. The first order of business is to elect a speaker. If no speaker elected (see Kevin McCarthy) then the representatives cannot be sworn in. If the House in not in session, then no business can be conducted. Remember McCarthy was not elected speaker until January 7. Then when he was ousted it took three more weeks for Johnson to be finally elected.

The swearing in of the House awaits the election of the speaker. If the House is not in session on January 6, the results of the Electoral College cannot be certified. If there is no certification, then Trump and Vance cannot be sworn in on January 20. If that had happened then the Constitution calls for the president pro tem of the Senate to be installed as president. That would have been 91 year old Chuck Grassley of Iowa. BTW, the president pro tem of the Senate is usually the longest serving member of the majority party.

I have nothing against Grassley, except for his blind support of ethanol. But seriously, it is clear to me why the House republicans wanted to avoid the delaying of the election of the Speaker. To do so would have triggered a set of events to show for the umpteenth time that the republicans are indeed the stupid party. But they will have plenty of opportunities over the next two years. What the republicans need to keep in mind is that if they show that they can govern and clean up the mess created by Biden, then the voters will keep them in office. More likely, they will screw things up and lose the House in two years, creating more discord in the party and throwing a wrench in the Trump agenda. It will be interesting to watch.

Home Grown Terror, Dumb Teachers, Market Caps

In the aftermath of the horrible terrorist attack in New Orleans, Trump immediately tweeted “When I said that the criminals coming in are far worse than the criminals we have in our country, that statement was constantly refuted by Democrats and the Fake News Media, but it turned out to be true.” Oops. The terrorist was Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, a native born U.S. citizen from Houston and U.S. Army veteran who rented an F-150 Lightning truck in Mexico and crossed the border at Eagle Pass, TX (the site of my annual deer hunt). Personally, I wonder why he rented in Mexico and why the electric Ford pickup? But Trump should at least wait a bit before blabbing off at the mouth.

Then there was the Tesla exploding before Trump Tower in Las Vegas. The news media which now hates Elon Musk had the headline that the Tesla cybertruck exploded giving the impression that something was wrong with the vehicle. In actuality, the truck was fitted with a detonation system made up of fireworks, gas tanks and camping fuel. The person killed was the driver who authorities said died from a gunshot wound rather than due to the explosion. Musk remarked that the construction of the cybertruck actually contained the explosion which resulted in no other deaths. No apologies forthcoming from the media though.

New Jersey is the latest state to eliminate the requirement that a teacher must pass a basic reading, writing and math skills test for certification. New York got rid of their tests in 2017. The reason given was this was part of an effort to address a teacher shortage! So let me get this straight, New Jersey wants to hire teachers who themselves cannot read, write or do math in order to teach kids to read, write and do math. The New Jersey Education Association, the teachers’ union, advocated passage saying that the testing requirements were “an unnecessary barrier to entering the profession.” I am certain that the teachers in New Jersey are well compensated – average salary is $81,000 – but a market solution would be to offer higher salaries for new teachers. Why can’t Johnny read is being replaced by why can’t Johnny’s teacher read.

But I am an empiricist. The reason for scrapping the basic tests for certification is that the failure rates for minorities are much higher than that for whites. For example, one state reported first time pass rates of 38% for blacks, 49% for Latinos, 53% for Asians and 80% for whites. Leaving aside why Latinos score significantly higher than blacks and Asians score lower than whites, cursory observation would suggest some biases in the tests with the caveat that the test taker had similar training and education (a large assumption). An important consideration is whether the tests are relevant to the profession. For example, the classic example was a test used to screen plumbing apprentices that had little to do with plumbing but effectively screened out minority applicants. Also are the tests predictive of teacher effectiveness? There is a study that finds that in one state the tests predict the effectiveness of white teachers but underpredict the effectiveness of black teachers – a sign of biasness in the tests.

Some have argued that a bachelor’s degree in education should be sufficient for certification. I think that would be the worst reason for certification. I believe that there should be no undergraduate major in education. Rather education should be a graduate level degree that would carry with it certification. Currently most undergraduate colleges of education do not contain curricula that provide grounding in the subjects of the skills tests: math. English, social studies and science. Rather the curriculum is on the methods of teaching a subject rather than knowledge of the subject itself. This is why I favor teachers having to having an undergraduate major in something other than education. Then in order to be certified, aspiring teachers would have to go to graduate school. There in addition to methods, the program would first test for basic skills. If the student failed the tests, they would have to take courses in the failed areas before being instructed in methods.

Did you know that there are no trillion dollar firms in Europe. Why is that? Nine of the eleven are in the US. By market capitalization they are Apple ($3.75 trillion), Microsoft ($3.33 trillion), Nvidia ($3.29 trillion), Amazon ($2.39 trillion), Alphabet ($2.33 trillion), Meta ($1.57 trillion), Tesla ($1.4 trillion), Broadcom ($1.05 trillion), and Berkshire-Hathaway ($1.0 trillion). The other two are Saudi Aramco ($2.45 trillion) and Taiwan Semiconductor ($1.04 trillion).

But why no European companies? It has been pointed out that their top eleven market caps total only $2.2 trillion which would rank behind Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Alphabet! Some might say that it is because there are 44 different countries with a combined population of 745 million and they are too small to generate such a large market cap. But that ignores Taiwan which only has 24 million people. Tesla is a relative newcomer is a producer of cars – albeit electric – while there are such venerable European brands as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes. Is it taxes? Is it wages? Is it the ability and freedom to start a business? Is it pursuit of the American dream? Is it freedom? Is it the ability of Americans to freely innovate? Is it the relative lack (compared to Europe) of regulation? Is it our financial system and ability to easily raise capital? Is it the low capital gains taxes? Maybe just like in teacher certification, there is an inherent bias preventing Europeans from having a trillion dollar market cap.