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IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! and other thoughts

The sea is rising! The sea is rising!

It is somewhat fitting that the UN’s annual conference on the climate is in Brazil. The alarmists are probably warning of doom and gloom because the sea level in the Caribbean has just risen. But chill, its just the arrival of the aircraft carrier, Gerald R. Ford, and its carrier group. The Ford is the navy’s largest boat and with it comes two guided-missile destroyers the USS Bainbridge and the USS Mahan and the USS Winston S. Churchill, an air and missile defense command ship. We have a boat named after Winston Churchill? Who knew? I do remember the Simon Bolivar, a ballistic missile submarine.

New York’s rent controlled units are now going to be rent controlled?

I had previously asked if someone could explain New York’s rent controls to me. My granddaughter who lives in Brooklyn tried. Two million New Yorkers live in rent controlled units. Doesn’t this mean that rent controls already exist? So Mamdani is going to freeze the rent on units that are already rent controlled? Mamdani got elected because of issues of affordability including the cost of housing. Well there are at least 26,000 empty units in the city that are empty because they are rent controlled and they sit empty because the cost of fixing them up cannot be recouped due to their rents being frozen. Now there is a lawsuit brought by two landlords against the city that the rent controls constitute a constitutional taking since the limits on what they can charge forces them to take losses. The Wall Street Journal says “When rents are regulated so that a property can only be rented at a loss, the plaintiffs argue that it qualifies as a taking under the Fifth Amendment. Because New York’s rent restrictions mostly apply to buildings constructed before 1974, the rent stabilization is also arbitrary and violates equal protection and due process rights.” In Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council (1992), the Supreme Court held that if the government prevents all economically beneficial use of property, it is a taking. Does this mean that the Court could rule rent controls unconstitutional?.

A somewhat divided Fed

The next meeting of the Open Market Committee is December 9-10. At its last meeting the Fed funds rate was lowered 25 basis points. Governor Trump – er Miran – dissented wanting a 50 basis point cut while Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed voted to hold. Now it looks like although Chairman Powell had hinted earlier that there would be another 25 basis point drop, several members of the Open Market Committee seem to be set on joining Schmid for no change because of inflationary worries. The government shutdown had affected the flow of data to the Fed. Powell actually said something about making blind decisions – which was scoffed at by Governor Waller. But prices are still increasing while job growth is stagnant and even falling. So on the one hand, decrease rates because of rising unemployment. On the other hand, raise rates due to increases in inflation. On the other hand, do nothing. Sort of reminds me of Lucky Pererson’s Three Handed Woman (left handed, tight handed and underhanded too).

Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed (and a coauthor) just announced his retirement effective at the end of this term. Again, all the reserve bank presidents serve five year terms that renew in years ending in six and one. Mandatory retirement age is 65. Raphael is 59 and there is speculation as to why he is retiring now. There is also speculation as to whether Trump will try to influence the reappointment of the reserve bank presidents. The new presidents are nominated by their bank’s board of directors but must be approved by the Board of Governors. Some wonder if the President will attempt to influence the selection at the reserve bank level. Then others wonder if he will try to have his appointees on the Fed board influence whether or not a certain reserve bank president will be reappointed. Only the president knows.

The 50 year mortgage

The president keeps telling us how great the economy is. Remember his latest ransom note? “We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER.” Well then why is affordability becoming the issue in the coming elections? All the democrats who just won ran on affordability and if we were doing so great then that would not have been an issue. IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! So the president’s man Bill Pulte has put forth the idea of the 50 year mortgage to make housing more affordable. Yes it would lower the monthly mortgage payment but it would also increase tremendously the amount of interest paid on the loan (maybe a deduction). 

Go to any mortgage calculator and here is what you will find: On a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with house price of $400,000, 20% down, financing $320,000 for 30 years, the monthly payment is $1,914.45, total interest $309,201 and in 2044, most of the payment starts to go to principal. If this is a 50 year mortgage, the monthly payment is $1,670.77, total interest is $687,860 and most of the payment goes to principal twenty years later in 2064. So how about your basic million dollar payout on a $400,000 home? I am assuming no insurance and no property tax in the calculations. So does saving $244 a month make the 50 year mortgage more “affordable”. I seriously doubt it.

Anyway the law would have to be changed to allow such a loan and the rules changed to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy them. Since when the mortgage is getting paid down, initially most money goes to interest and little goes to principal, a 50 year mortgage would mean that equity would be built more slowly. In the housing crisis of 2007, many homeowners walked away from their mortgages because the amount they owed was greater than the equity in the house. This problem would be compounded with a 50 year mortgage. My feeling is that they should be allowed and let the consumer and the lender craft a mortgage instrument that is best for both parties. Anyway the mortgage is likely to be sold by the originator.

Nonetheless, many voted for Trump because of the Biden economy. Now the voters in Virginia, New Jersey and even Georgia where two democrats were elected to the Public Service Commission – the first time since 2006 that democrats had won those statewide positions – do not bode well for those reeling from the Trump economy. Those polled saying they are worse off equal the numbers of Biden’s. I think that Trump has blown a golden opportunity to put the economy on a solid growth path with his economic politics. Vivek Ramaswamy said “Our side needs to focus on affordability. Make the American dream affordable. Bring down costs—electric costs, grocery costs, health care costs and housing costs—and lay out how we’re going to do it.” I say do it by using the market not like Trump’s flirtation with socialism where he wants to fix prices, threaten businesses, take equity positions in corporations and all the rest. BTW, I am tired of the Trump people keep blaming Biden for all that ails us. Just like I got tired of blaming Trump for all of his administration’s woes.

Remember: IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID!

In the “what you can do I can do better” department, in the rash of all the noise seeking to link the president with Epstein by the democrats, the EMPIRE STRIKES BACK! The president is siccing his Department of “Justice” on the democrats. Here is his latest random note. “Now that the Democrats are using the Epstein Hoax, involving Democrats, not Republicans, to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN, and all of their other failures, I will be asking A.G. Pam Bondi, and the Department of Justice, together with our great patriots at the FBI, to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him.”

What was the saying about “Never argue with someone who buys ink by the barrel”? How about “Never mess with someone who can sic the DOJ, the FBI, the CIA, the IRS and Bill Pulte on you!”

Bye bye shutdown, Canadian growth, carbon emissions and Italian pasta

Eight democrats finally decided to vote to end the government shutdown. Curiously that was the exact number needed since Rand Paul voted no. Is this a coincidence? Those eight are getting heat from the left wing of the democrat party (is there any other wing?). The eight are Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Dick Durbin of Illinois and “independent” Maine Sen. Angus King. I was surprised that Mark Warner of Virginia voted no, given the large number of federal employees living in his state. Also I was surprised that Georgia’s two democrat senators voted no. Jon Ossoff is particularly vulnerable and his vote will be used against him in his attempt at being re-elected. Fetterman said that there were plenty more democrats who wanted to vote yes but were afraid.

But the sharp knives are out for Schumer which is odd since he voted no. Recall all the vitriol thrown his way by the left when he voted for the previous CR? Well now they are after him even though he voted no. Schumer said “Donald Trump has taken the American people hostage. I must vote no. This healthcare crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home that I cannot in good faith support this CR. We will keep fighting.” Yet there are all these calls for his head. Interesting that most are not from senators. Instead they are from representatives like Ro Khanna and governors like Pritzker and Newsom.

But I want someone to explain to me why the same democrats who were whining that the cruel heartless republicans were denying the poor their SNAP subsidies are now yelling at the eight democrats who voted to resume those payments. Elizbeth Warren said during the shutdown “Trump is using hungry children, veterans, and seniors as a political tool. It’s fundamentally wrong.” After the vote ending the shutdown she said “This deal is a mistake. While Trump and Republicans inflict pain on people, Democrats’ most important job is to fight back.” This adds confirmation to her brain having turned to mush.

Would you believe that the UN is holding its 30^th climate conference this year? It’s in Belem, Brazil which should prepare itself for the onslaught of private jets. Meanwhile, carbon emissions have continued to rise. It is hard to preach (and practice) carbon reduction in the face of economic growth. I am reminded of what one African president said when asked to address climate change. He said that no country developed using expensive energy.

Speaking of carbon emissions, it looks like Ford is going to discontinue making its EV pickup, the Ford Lightning F-150 all the while advertising a free charger if you buy one. Hey, its EV division has only lost $13 billion since 2023. Maybe Ford thought the good old boys would trade in their gas F-150s for the electric one. But few wanted to pay thousands more for essentially a vanity pickup. Speaking of vanity pickups, the bottom has fallen out of Tesla’s sales of its cybertruck. Sales are down 40 percent from last year. Over 10,000 remain unsold and Tesla has cut production and staff at its Texas factory. However, there are cybertruck lovers out there. I counted five during a drive the other day in Knoxville. So if you love one, buy it used. Cybertrucks depreciate an astounding 35% in its first year. But just remember, a cybertruck is more than a vanity pickup, it is a statement too and fewer and fewer are willing to make that statement.

Canada’s economy is tanking thanks to Trump’s tariffs. This is not surprising since we are the market for three fourths of its exports. Unemployment is rising. The manufacturing sector has lost 33,000 jobs. Stellantis says that it is moving the production of its Jeep Compass out of Ontario to Illinois due to the 25% tariffs on automobiles. Ontario is suing Stellantis to keep the production in Canada. The Canadian government has of course said that it will increase its spending and cut interest rates – a typical government response. But the losses have caused business investment to tank and is down 16 percent from lost year. Government actions are not going to bring back the lost demand. Canada is trying to pivot to other markets but its best bet is for Trump’s tariffs to be ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. Trump did say that the only way for them to avoid his tariffs would be to become the 51^st state. Please don’t.

Speaking of tariffs, Trump is going to raise the tariff on Italian pasta to an unbelievable 107%! And I thought he liked Meloni? Supposedly the Italians are “dumping” pasta on the market – selling them below market price to give them an unfair advantage over US pasta makers. The Italian pasta makers say that this is false and the prices charged in the US are above those charged in Italy. This is lunacy. You mean these 13 Italian makers threaten Barilla, Ronzoni , Rao and Mueller? All told, Italians exported 281,000 metric tons to the US in 2024 while US manufacturers produced 1.8 million metric tons. So Pasta Garofalo and La Molisana obviously pose a threat to national security.

I have given up trying to apply logic to Trump’s tariffs (DDE can do it for me) but I thinks Trump just likes picking on the little guy. I am reminded of a quote from the first truly great offensive tackle Bob (Boomer) Brown of the Eagles who said when asked why did he play football, he said “Boomer likes to hit people.”

Trump’s tariffs day in Court

The president just called me a fool. On that point at least one of my readers would agree. Why? Because I – like a few others – oppose his tariffs. Here is what he said: “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

I guess the president feels that it is obvious that his tariffs are making us “rich as hell.” There will be trillions flowing in so we will replace the income tax, pay off the debt and give everyone (except the rich folk) $2,000 so what’s not to love? BTW wasn’t $2,000 the figure that the democrats were using in the campaign for the impact of Trump’s then proposed tariffs on American households?

I am not going over old ground. Secretary Bessent has said that the tariffs would bring in $400 billion. But the debt is growing by $1.8 trillion and simple math – a problem for this president – tells us that the tariffs can do none of the things that he has promised. A rebate of $2,000 excluding high incomes would amount to $600 billion. Where is the money just to do the rebate? So Bessent is forced to become the president’s translator. Well, he said, the rebate (he calls it a dividend) could actually come in many forms. “You know, it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda — you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans.” In other words, not from tariffs. The president misspoke, only he is not aware that he did.

The government is having to tie itself in knots in its arguments before the Supreme Court. Since the Constitution gives the power to tax to the Congress and not to the president, the administration has had to argue that the tariffs are not a tax. Solicitor General John Sauer said that “They are not revenue-raising tariffs.” Excuse me? Then what are they? Sauer knows that only the Congress is given the power to raise revenues through tariffs and taxes. So what is he now calling the tariffs? The real impact of the tariffs is one of the largest tax increases in history ($3.9 trillion over the next decade). Sauer even said “The fact that they raise revenue is only incidental. The tariffs would be most effective, so to speak, if no person ever paid them.” Huh? But if no one paid them, how could they raise revenues? Mr Sauer is tying himself in knots.

The justices are not buying the administration’s argument. Justice Gorsuch said “The really key part of the context here…is [that] the constitutional assignment of the taxing power to Congress, the power to reach into the pockets of the American people, is just different and it’s been different since the founding.”

Of course the law does allow the president to impose tariffs as a means to regulate imports in case of a national emergency. Here is where the president erred by imposing a universal tariff on every country, island, archipelago and coral reef in the world. It is hard to argue that Lesotho is a threat to national security. On that point, Chief Justice Roberts said that the “power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time, it does seem like that’s a major authority. Trump’s “vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress.”

I would be shocked if the administration prevails. I would also be shocked if the decision were not unanimous.

Mamdani has won. Now can he govern?

Zohran Mamdani is now mayor of New York. A lot has been written about his lack of credentials. He has never had a real job. But somehow he was elected an assemblyman from Queens. He has made a lot of promises including a lot of free stuff without the wherewithal to pay for them. Albany has the purse strings and Governor Hochul says she won’t raise either the city’s corporate tax or income tax to pay for them. She even has nixed Mamdani’s promise of free buses saying that the fares are needed to pay for operation of the buses and their maintenance. Who knew?

So if Mamdani can’t get the money to pay for his promises, what can he do? He can appoint department heads. He has said that he will reappoint the head of police Jessica Tisch who has been widely praised. What happened to his pledge of defunding the police and sending social workers rather than cops to scenes of domestic abuse? Tisch has not yet said if she will stay. But there has been a steady exodus of cops leaving in the wake of Mamdani’s victory. More will leave if Tisch does not stay. Cities in Texas and Florida are running ads trying to attract disaffected New York cops. Many may take them up on it. It will be interesting to see why type of contract is negotiated between the policemen’s union and Mamdani when the current one expires.

As mayor Mamdani will head a city that employs over 300,000 people, has a budget of $115 billion and has the power to implement certain social and economic policies given the blessing of a 51 person city council. So the question is whether within that $120 billion can he hollow out $6 billion for free child care, $3 billion for free buses and all the rest. He won’t have enough money to build the “affordable” housing units promised. He doesn’t have the authority to raise the city’s minimum wage to $30 an hour. What about his city run grocery stores that will cost “only” $140 million? Also New York has rent-controlled units housing 2 million people. Mamdani wants the rent frozen on these rent-controlled units. I need someone to explain this to me but it seems that Mamdani might have the power to do this. No need to repeat the disastrous consequences of rent controls because this, like minimum wages, will never die.

Although it looks like Mamdani will have $115 billion to fool around with, $7.4 billion of that comes from the Federal government and Trump has vowed not to send the city any money unless he is legally obligated to do so. Cutting off those monies would mean that Mamdani would not be able to maintain expenditures at their current levels, much less fund his ambitious promises. Currently a quarter of the budget goes for education then comes human services, public safety and the judicial system, city employee pension funds, and debt service payments. If Mamdani tries to reallocate these funds he will find strong opposition from those whose funding will be decreased. This is a challenge for a veteran manager much less one with no managerial experience. I am reminded of Napoleon’s saying “If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything deliver nothing.” The question is how long will Mamdani’s raucous base remain supportive when he fails to deliver his promises.

Speaking of support base, the core of his support was from college educated white women who gave him an astounding 84 percent of their votes. Young women were wearing t-shirts that said “Hot girls for Zohran.” Perhaps part of the appeal was a young charismatic candidate running against the worn out discredited old guard. It would have been interesting if there had been a young republican in the mold of Charlie Kirk running rather than Chris Sliwa. That Mamdani had this type of support is in large part due to the failures of out “education” system that praises socialism at every grade and trashes capitalism. The two teachers’ unions are headed by socialists too. With this type of brainwashing it is a miracle that any young person is a conservative. So a system that has failed everywhere it has been tried is slated to try and fail again only to rise like Phoenix from the ashes to be tried again and again.

But hey, capitalism is heartless, cold and cruel rife with creative destruction. Socialism is all about empathy, warm and fuzziness. It wants to serve the poor, lessen inequality and appeals to the feminine desire for compassion. A campaign running on the lack of affordability in the city and promising happiness and fulfillment undoubtedly resonated with frustrated young women raised on socialism and the politics of envy. Now let’s see how long this honeymoon lasts.

Prior to my retirement I had an active consulting practice dealing primarily with actions brought against banks by the government or by class action tort attorneys. In one of the cases, the lead attorney told me that in his classes at Harvard law, his favorite instructor was Elizabeth Warren. For those who do not know, many say that Warren got her appointment to the Harvard law faculty by deception. She claimed to be a native American (which is why Trump calls her “Pocahontas”). I know from experience that Harvard’s hiring reflects what I call “degree snobs.” Harvard’s faculty is composed of faculty with degrees from only “elite” universities. However, none of Warren’s degrees are from “elite” institutions. Her undergraduate degree is from the University of Houston and her JD is from Rutgers. I bet she was the only faulty member with degrees from such common-folk universities.

Some allege that she was a DEI hire (hence claiming to be native American) but she came to Harvard only after a distinguished academic career with appointments at Rutgers, Houston, Texas where she was a tenured full professor. She then was a chaired professor at Penn before going to Harvard as Leo Gottlieb professor of law. At Harvard she specialized in bankruptcy and commercial law and was one of the three most citied scholars in those fields. In the senate she has concentrated on trying to reform banking, antitrust issues and consumer protection.

This was the person known to that attorney that I was working with on a class action case. He said that the senator Elizabeth Warren was totally different from the professor Elizabeth Warren. The senator Elizabeth Warren has almost reached “kook” status in the senate. In an earlier post, I mentioned her letter (with Klobuchar) that was derided by Treasury secretary Bessent. Then she accused Donald Trump of being responsible for the YouTubeTv Disney kerfuffle. She said “You might not be able to watch Monday Night Football tonight. Why? When companies get too big, they have the power to cut off your favorite channels. That’s what’s happening here. And what’s Trump done about it? He’s let them get away with it.” Was she saying that Trump was responsible for the blackout?

I guess since Trump has poked his nose into a bunch of other non-presidential affairs like Taylor Swift, Sydney Sweeney, reopening Alcatraz and his penchant for making outlandish remarks, Warren thinks that he should be making comments about the loss of ESPN to YouTubeTV viewers too and doing something about it. But what does Warren want Trump to do? Wouldn’t interfering in this dispute be contrary to her claim that Trump wants to be a king?

But what is interesting is that Warren who seemingly has taken Disney’s side in the dispute is being inconsistent. In September, Warren in a letter (she sure likes writing letters) with Bernie Sanders and Texas’ Joaquin Castro sent to Disney question its proposed media deals between ESPN and the NFL and major league baseball. The letter raised antitrust concerns that would harm consumers and competitors. Here, in part is what it says

The agreements between ESPN, the NFL, and Major League Baseball (MLB) that have recently become public raise serious concerns and could entrench ESPN’s dominance over competitors in sports distribution,” the letter reads. “As prices rise across the board, including for cable and satellite TV and streaming services, sports fans should not be forced to pay more or jump through more hoops to watch their favorite team.

“We are concerned that these new deals could hurt consumers by disadvantaging competitors, limiting choices, raising prices for viewers, and creating potential conflicts of interest.”

So here, Warren is questioning Disney and saying that the arrangement would cause streaming services like YouTubeTV to pay more. Yet she then one month later seems to be critical of YouTubeTV of having to pay more if Disney raises the price of carrying ESPN. Apparently, being in politics has caused what was one a top legal mind to turn to mush. And this is just the latest example of nonsense coming from Senator Warren. Bessent called her a “failure” and the senate’s “resident American Peronist.” Maybe he was given to understatement.

But one thing is clear, Warren hates Trump. The most recent evidence is over Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder. Warren asserted that Zhao who had pleaded guilty to a money laundering charge had financed Trump’s stablecoin project and lobbied for a pardon and got it. She then added “If Congress does not stop this kind of corruption. It owns it.” Where is the brilliant legal mind that was on the Penn and Harvard faculties?Senator Warren is a caricature of the professor Warren. That legal mind has turned into mush but such is the transformative power of spending too many years in the legislature surrounded by the folk who only want more power than seek optimal solutions to the problems that many of them have created

Free the air traffic controllers

I have previously written that the education of our children is too important to be left to the government. The same can be said of many things especially the air traffic controllers. Why are they government employees? The specter of 10% of flights being cancelled due to this silly government shutdown gives us the opportunity to take a long hard look at this arrangement. First, how is the system funded in the first place? Are the controllers’ salaries being paid via appropriations out of the general fund or are they being paid like at some federal regulatory agencies in which the regulated firms pay a fee to the specific regulator? The AOPA (Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association) website says “Federal aviation programs related to aviation, comprised of air traffic control and navigation systems, regulation and certification, and capital improvement grants to airports, are all administered by the Federal Aviation Administration and financed with annual appropriations by Congress.” Further “Air traffic controllers in the U.S. are primarily funded through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which receives most of its budget from the Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF). This fund collects revenue from aviation-related taxes, including those on airline tickets and fuel, but is subject to congressional appropriations and can be affected by government shutdowns.”

Ok the funding does not come from the general tax fund but from monies related to air stuff (a technical term). Why can’t this funding be from assessments just like the Federal Reserve’s funding? In almost 100 other countries air traffic control is treated like a public utility. The fees go directly into what is essentially an ATC utility and is independent of the government’s purse strings. As one of my friends observed, the government being the employer of the air traffic controllers is analogous to the government paying doctors’ salaries where in countries like England, the doctors collectively can go on strike. Can you imagine our doctors going on strike?

Today’s modest proposal is to file for a divorce. ATC should be taken out of the hands of the congress and accorded independent agency status. The Trump Administration is all about shaking things up so do this. Doing Trump’s first term one attempt was made to do this. It was modelled after the Canadian system of a self funded corporation independent from the federal government with the government maintaining oversight. It had the support of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, the Business Roundtable and the major airlines. It made it out of committee but for never got a floor vote. There was a campaign against the bill led by the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), a lobbying group for private business aviation which said that the big airlines would take over the ATC to the detriment of private planes and rural states. If I were the president, I would get this group on board and pass the legislation.

Are we as smart as the Canadians, the New Zealanders and all the other countries that somehow manage to depoliticize their air traffic control systems? Apparently not.

British stabbing, Africa genocide, Senator Crockett?

Britain has a Muslim problem but won’t admit it. There were the rape gangs that were glossed over. There is the awful antisemitism that is politely tolerated. One Brit actually implored Trump to admit British Jews under the refugee program that he is reserving for the Afrikaners. Then there is banning of Israeli soccer fans at a match in Birmingham following the deadly attack on a synagogue in Manchester. Thirty percent of Birmingham’s population is Muslim who held perhaps England’s largest pro Hamas demonstrations. It’s a miracle that the Israeli fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv would travel in the face of such hostility but apparently they will. The member of parliament from Birmingham is a Muslim who won election on a pro-Palestinian platform and launched a petition to ban the Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from coming to the game. He praised the decision to ban them.

British Muslims have been responsible for much of the attacks on the Jews and it is interesting that when eleven people were stabbed on a London bound train that we were never told if the attackers were Muslim. Two men were initially arrested but only one was charged. In no coverage that I read does it state whether the stabber was Muslim. The news reports that he was born in Britain. British Transport Police Superintendent John Loveless said “There is nothing to suggest this is a terrorist incident.” Pardon me John but you are full of it. This is a terrorist act regardless of what we are being told. The stabber is named Antony Williams and his photo looks as if he is black but no word as to whether he is (or isn’t) Muslim. Seems like the knife is the weapon of choice in England. Is there a call for knife control? The banning of blades over a certain length?

Trump says that we are not going to invade Venezuela but we may invade Nigeria. There the Muslim majority is killing the Christian minority. Here is what the president tweeted “If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ tocompletely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities. I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!” To date over 52,000 Nigerian Christians have been killed with 17 being killed just after Trump announced possible intervention. The extremist groups Boko Haram and ISWAP are primarily responsible.

But If Trump wants to intervene in Africa he should look no farther than Darfur where Sudan’s Arab led militia is systematically hunting down and killing the region’s black population using Chinese state of the art drones and execution squads. The Wall Street Journal reports that unarmed people are being shot in the streets and that at one hospital 450 people were shot and killed including patients, caregivers and health workers. The militia has been conducting door-to-door searches, and executing non-Arab men and boys. The women are raped and then killed. The deaths are over 200,000 and may exceed the million killed in the Rwandan genocide.

https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/sudan-militia-armed-with-drones-hunts-down-black-population-of-darfur-08469935?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1

Staying in Africa, the South African government has fired back at Trump for contending that the black government is committing genocide against the white farmers. Recalled when the president met with South African president Cyril Ramaphosa in the White House and displayed pictures showing the genocide of the white farmers? Well it turns out that the photos were from a thousand miles taken by Reuters in war torn Congo (home of some of my ancestors). The video that Trump showed that was supposed to be of burial sites of murdered white farmers recently killed but were actually from a 2000 protest by Afrikaners in which crosses represented farmers killed over multiple years. The South African government says “The claim of a ‘white genocide’ in South Africa is widely discredited and unsupported by reliable evidence.” The government also released a letter from a leading Afrikaner group rejecting the narrative of genocide and murder. To date no word from the White House. Also seemingly forgotten in all this is what about the treatment of the English speaking whites who tend toward commerce and banking rather than farming? Have they been threatened like the Afrikaners? BTW, the English speaking whites look down their noses at the Afrikaners. Recall that they fought a bloody war from 1899 to 1902 for control of South Africa and they still don’t particularly like each other.

I have always said that when it seemed like we were intervening in disputes all around the world but not in Africa and I wondered if the reason was war brides.

Speaking of invading, there are news reports that Trump is planning ground action in Mexico – hopefully with the blessing of the Mexican government. The reports are that ground troops, CIA and drones will target the cartels. A senior White House official said in response to the news that “The Trump administration is committed to utilizing an all-of-government approach to address the threats cartels pose to American citizens.” The plan calls for drone strikes against drug labs in Mexico as well as top cartel leaders. To say that this is an escalation of our efforts against drug trafficking is an understatement.

The Texas gerrymander intended to oust Jasmine Crockett and Al (Full of Fire) Green has prompted Crockett to threaten to run for the senate. The race on the republican side is heated with Attorney General Ken Paxson and Representative Wesley Hunt running against incumbent John Cornyn who has been accused as not being sufficiently MAGA. Paxson is controversial having once been impeached by the Texas House which is controlled by the republicans but then not convicted by the republican controlled senate. Hunt was late into the race and the other candidates have refused to include him in the debates. The democrat contenders are Collin Allred who ran and lost against Ted Cruz and James Tallarico. Crockett has said that she will run if Cornyn loses his primary. Democrat polling has her well ahead of other candidates including also ran Beta O’Rourke and Joaquin Castro. So although republicans have painted her as “not too bright”, “low IQ’, among others, it seems like the democrat voters in Texas think otherwise. So if the republicans continue to beat themselves up and those who backed the losers are sore losers and stay away in the general election, is it possible that we will have a Senator Jasmine Crockett?

Daylight savings time, “risky” mortgages and more bickering

I hate this time change. My entire live I have always awakened around 5:30 and go to bed between 10-10:30. With this time change I now wake up at 4:30 and cannot go back to sleep. So I just try to lay in bed for another hour. But the dog won’t let me since she is still on the old time. Why can’t we just leave the time alone? Who likes changing their clocks anyway? Tennessee along with Maine, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Delaware, Colorado, Texas, and Wyoming have voted to permanently observe daylight savings time. For some reason the congress has not approved that change. Federal regulations say that if you lock your clocks then it can only be standard time not daylight savings time. I haven’t a clue why. Currently only Arizona and Hawaii are locked on standard time and don’t have to “spring forward” and “fall back.” So tell me, do you prefer being locked on standard time, locked on daylight savings time or doing the change the time thing?

There have recently been articles talking about the return of “risky” mortgages. At first I thought they were talking about subprime mortgages but no, the articles are about adjustable rate mortgages! Risky? I guess they could be. Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) allow borrowing at a lower rate that can become higher in the future. The question is whether the maximum higher rate will imperil the homeowner. Well it is not supposed to. There are regulations in place that set the maximum rate adjustment and how often the rate can be changed. Usually the mortgages reset every five or seven years. The lender is supposed to grant the loan on the calculation that the borrower would still qualify for the loan under the maximum adjustment. Of course, the borrower’s condition might change such as being laid off. But that would risk repayment regardless of whether the mortgages were fixed or adjustable. 

The adjustable rate mortgage may be becoming more attractive now to some borrowers. Currently a 30 year fixed is at 6.15% while a five year adjustable is at 5.45%. Historically, adjustables make up around 3% of total mortgages. Today it is around 10 percent. Also consider that when rates fall that the adjustable mortgage can be refinanced into a fixed rate mortgage. One personal admission: it is widely reported that ARMs originated in 1980 with the Federal Home Loan Bank Board authorizing their use by savings and loan institutions. That is not actually correct. A couple of weeks earlier at the National Credit Union Administration, I suggested we change our lending regulations by removing two words. The regulation stated that loans had to be repaid in roughly equal payments. We removed the words “roughly equal” creating what we called the “variable rate loan.” The Home Loan Bank Board then adopted our rule but applied it to mortgages. So I take the blame for these “risky” mortgages. Maybe I should be blamed for subprime mortgages as well since I was on the board of the nation’s second largest subprime lender, New Century Financial, when that market imploded.

I have written about how Pam (Blondie) Bondi and Karoline Levitt have thrown away the veneer of decorum and have traded insult for insult and invective for invective with democrats and reporters (democrats too). Now we have Treasury secretary Bessent losing it with democrat senators Warren and Klobuchar. The democrats sent a letter saying that Trump was putting Argentina over American farmers. The letter said in part “Instead of prioritizing U.S. farmers and rural communities, the administration has doubled down on aiding Argentina when family farmers are running out of time and cannot continue to endure short-sighted international actions instead of long-term trade stability. We urge you to immediately reconsider further aid to Argentina and to instead focus on restoring and expanding long-term export market access for American farmers.”

Bessent was beside himself and called Warren and Klobuchar “failures” and told them to stop their staffs from writing “incoherent” letters and focus on restarting the government. Here is what he posted on X. “@SenWarren and @SenAmyKlobuchar: you are failures. You failed to derail the electoral success of one of our great allies in Latin America, President @JMilei. He won in a landslide with the poorest members of society voting for economic freedom—a notion anathema in particular to the Senate’s resident American Peronist, Senator Warren.” Resident American Peronist? Wow. I don’t think I have ever seen before this level of derision between a cabinet member and a senator. At least Klobuchar responded with a bit of humor when she tweeted that she and the secretary “have had no public or private personal ‘BEEFS’ (Argentinian or otherwise).”

Things are getting testy. I am beginning to think that the democrats are playing rope-a-dope and are holding out to force the republicans to vote to end the filibuster. That will in essence usher in one party rule when one party controls both the senate and the house and the presidency. Then with the expansion of presidential powers under Trump, a democrat president along with democrat senate and house would have no constraints – other than the courts – to really transform the country into their image. Bye bye electoral college. Pack the Supreme Court. No voter ID. Open borders. Expand Trump’s intrusion into the private sector. Expansion of Obamacare, voter “rights”, climate change, reduce military spending, and increase nondiscretionary spending. I probably left something out. But caveat emptor.

Trump’s tariffs, the Supreme Court and the New York Marathon

Trump’s lawyers are arguing his case for tariffs before the Supreme Court. There is one little contradiction in the papers filed with the court. On the one hand they argue that foreigners buying up American “assets” is a serious threat national security to require emergency executive powers over trade. Here is what they say “By the end of 2024, foreigners owned approximately $24 trillion more of U.S. assets than Americans owned of foreign assets. That imbalance has “weakened” the United States and “created an ongoing economic emergency of historic proportions.”

On the other hand, they argue that undoing Trump’s tariffs would jeopardize “trillions of dollars” in foreign investment that the president has negotiated in his shakedowns of our trading partners. They point to $600 billion in investments pledged by the European Union and another $1 trillion promised by the governments of Japan and South Korea. Those investments, the administration argues, will “rectify past imbalances.” (Note: this is from Reason https://reason.com/2025/11/03/in-tariff-case-trumps-attorneys-cant-decide-if-foreign-investment-is-good-or-bad-for-america/)

Now let me get this straight: foreign investment is a threat to national security except when it comes from the shakedowns by the president in his tariff negotiations with our trading partners. I am sure that the justices will question the logic of this argument. It will be interesting to see the government’s response. Regardless, I fully expect the president to lose this one. The question is whether the ruling will be unanimous.

The New York marathon was again a showcase for the Kenyans. They took the first three places in both the men’s and the women’s divisions. Benson Kipruto won the men’s in a time of 2:08:09. Hellen Obiri won the women’s with a time of 2:19:51 – a new course record. The top three women all broke the old record. Kipruto’s time translates to 4:57 minutes per mile over the 26.2 mile course. I am old enough to remember when that time could win a one mile race. The women’s time translates to 5:19 per mile. As an ex-marathoner, these times do not compute.

I have run 13 marathons and have the t-shirts to prove it. My goal was to run under four hours which would qualify me to run the Boston Marathon. I was on the faculty of UNC-Chapel Hill and started training with a professor in the law school who was a 3:33:00 marathoner. Every weekend we would do a 20 mile run and ran splits during the week. My previous best time was 4:09:00 and we were confident that running on a flat course I would break four hours. So I ran a marathon in Norfolk. When I went through the 20 mile mark I was on a 3:50:00 pace. The next memory was waking up in a tent with an IV in my arm. I had collapsed – even though I had kept hydrated. I never ran another. My body had redlined and was telling me to stick with the half marathons or run the full marathon at a more leisurely pace. So I ran a half every year and a 10 k every month. I was never fast. In fact, during my first marathon – DC’s Cherry Blossum marathon – I got passed by a race walker. But I did get better and ran the first three Marine Corps marathons. Again I have the t-shirts to prove it.

One of my neighbor’s daughters ran this year’s New York and finished a bit over 5 hours. My congratulations to her and to all the finishers. New York is a tough race with all the hills. In fact the world’s greatest marathoner Ellliud Kipchoge’s kryptonite are hills. He is the only human to run a marathon under two hours. All of his victories have been on flat courses. He finished 17^th in New York running a 2:14:16. By running New York, Kipchoge has finished all seven major world marathons. He is the only person to have won four of them (Chicago, London, Berlin, and Tokyo) and to set course records at three (London, Berlin, and Tokyo). He is now 40 years old and may retire as the greatest marathoner of all time.

This year an amazing 59,226 runners finished the New York Marathon. I wish that I had been one of them.

Are the democrats really in disarray?

I don’t know why anyone pays political prognosticators. Those folk are just stealing money. It has been all the rage to say tha the democrat party is in total disarray and disintegrating before our very eyes. In March, the Hill had an article entitled “Disarry doesn’t come close to the describing it – Democrats are disintegrating.” PJ Media had the headline “Democratic party disarray far worse that you can imagine.” It said “The democratic party is struggling. In every way a political party can be dysfunctional, the democrats are careening toward an implosion. Riven by poisonous factionalism, running out of cash and devoid of purpose and plan, the oldest political party inn te Western World is falling apart right before our eyes.” 

There are countless others with the same theme. Don’t believe this nonsense. These elections were a rout. New York City just elected a mayor on the far left fringe of the democrat party. No republican of any stature ran for the office, probably deeming it beyond salvaging. A million Jews live in New York City. Having Mamdani as mayor is like having Lester Maddox as governor of Georgia – except that Maddox had had a job when he was elected. Anyway Lee Zeldin is EPA director and is worrying about nationwide pollution rather than that located within New York City. New Jersey and Virginia have elected two perfectly awful democrats over two outstanding republicans. Virginia even elected as attorney general the democrat who had fantasized about killing republicans and their children. California voted to basically evict the few republicans from its congressional delegation. Pennsylvania voted to keep the three democrat supreme court “justices” who tend to make up the law as they see fit. Is this a party in disarray, a party imploding and falling apart? Only in your dreams. 

Do you think that this is the anti-Trump backlash? Well if it is, it has proven to be a winner for the democrats. I had once characterized the republicans as celebrating a touchdown while spiking the ball before crossing the goal line. I know that the narrative is that the democrat party is now being run by wild eyed left wing communists. But is it? Yes the party has moved more to the left just as the republicans have moved more to the right. But although those on the left will yell that all republicans are now a bunch of Nazis (I hate that word) and those on the right will yell all democrats are now a bunch of Commies, neither is even close to being correct. Yes Mamdani (like Bernie and AOC) are card carrying socialists who want more government control private enterprise. But Virginia’s Spanberger and New Jersey’s Sherrill are no communists. The relevant question is whether the bulk of the elected democrats and their supporters want the means of production in government hands? Not the democrats that I know. Ironically, Trump has actually done it more than any democrat with his government having equity stakes in private companies. He has actually vetoed decisions made by CEOs. Trump has tried to dictate price setting by the pharmaceuticals. So is Trump a socialist? Does this mean that the majority of elected republicans and their voters want a government takeover of private enterprise? Not hardly.

The democrats have held together their caucus in both the House and the Senate. If they were imploding then don’t you think that you would see schisms there? Instead, in a bill to pay the military, they presented an almost united front in the House and Senate. Of course, John Fetterman voted to fund the military and he was joined by the two democrats from my home state of Georgia, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. Why? Because Georgia is home to around 100,000 active duty and retired military personnel and their families. Ossoff is up for reelection and is considered vulnerable despite having accumulated an impressive war chest. There was no way that he was going to vote against that bill. The Senate democrats have hung united (with the exception of Fetterman) behind Chuck Schumer in the silly government shutdown and showing no signs of unraveling.

This is hardly a party imploding and disintegrating. I still think that there is a greater than 50-50 chance that the democrats will take back the House in the midterms. Call it Trump fatigue. The tariffs are not a political winner. Millions voted for Trump because of the Biden inflation and now that has become the Trump inflation. Isn’t it ironic that the main theme running through every one of the democrat campaigns is affordability? Wasn’t that one of the reasons that Trump was elected. 

Trump dominates the news with his immigration policies, tariff threats, military threats, blowing up narco boats, foreign policy moves, government shutdown, coffee and beef prices, firing of federal workers, expanding the scope of executive power and even the White House ballroom and the demolition of the East Wing. His approval rating is around 39% and his disapproval rating is around 58 percent. The shutdown is not helping him – but its not helping the democrats either. A pox on both of their houses!

Will Trump’s dismal ratings redound to republicans running in the midterms? We will have to see. Historically the party in power loses around 20 seats in the House in the midterms. Given Trump’s ratings, every democrat is going to tie their republican opponent to Trump. Of course, in some districts Trump will be an asset rather than a liability but those districts are solidly republican and are not likely to flip regardless of who is in the White House. Consider that Trump carried 230 congressional districts while Harris carried 205. Let’s assume that the 205 carried by Harris are “safe” democrat seats. In the 230 carried by Trump, 55 were by margins of 55 percent or more. Let’s call these “safe” republican seats. That would leave at most 185 seats that are up for grabs. The question then is whether these seats are currently being occupied by incumbents who will likely hold those seats regardless. But don’t you think that of that 185, there is a positive probability that 20 of them might flip? I do.

To quote the Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.