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Happy Thanksgiving (2025)

Happy Thanksgiving. My very best to you and yours. I will take a short break from the blog this week to spend time with my family. I hope you do the same with yours.

The holidays are coming! The holidays are coming and with it comes the food of the season. When else do you see cranberry jello – or whatever that stuff is that wiggles out of a can? When else do you have dressing? Mother never stuffed a turkey but made cornbread dressing in a pan and baked it. It was just dressed up cornbread with chopped giblets, poultry seasoning and chicken broth mixed together. We always had ham for Thanksgiving and Christmas. I don’t remember it at any other time of the year. The turkey and ham were the only meats that she cooked that weren’t fried – although I used to joke that we had fried turkey. Who knew that would become a thing? And sweet potatoes! Baked in their skins and of course sweet potato casserole topped with marshmallows. We always had dinner rolls – the kind that have two halves that you pull apart.

We had sweet potato pie. When I first heard of pumpkin pie I thought it was a misprint. Mac and cheese was always served with the holiday meals. We had fried skillet corn – never creamed. Dad loved egg nog – non alcoholic since he didn’t drink. We thought it a weird drink, and I still do. He would sit in his favorite chair and watch football with a bowl of pecans, a glass of egg nog and a slice of fruit cake. Mother made her world famous scuppernong wine from her own garden – although she too did not drink. The wine was put in mason jars (named after someone named Mason) and distributed to all the neighbors and relatives. One thing that we did not have was green bean casserole, thank goodness, probably because we had never heard of it. Then there were potato salad and deviled eggs. Mother loved pork rinds which were too salty for my taste but had them on the side to eat with her collard greens (which when I was young I called them “Colored” greens). Mom always made Dad’s favorite cake, a yellow cake with chocolate icing with pecans strategically placed on top. The cake only appeared with our holiday fare and on his birthday (November 19). We ate in the dining room on those special days instead of in the kitchen on her best china and silverware that only appeared at Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners with holiday napkins too. 

But holiday fare was just not reserved for dinner. In the morning mother would have biscuits (which came from a can), grits and fried oysters (Dad’s favorite food). Until I went off to college I had thought that oysters were a breakfast food. When I finally saw it on a dinner menu I thought it was analogous to serving bacon for dinner. To his dying day, mother made Dad oysters for Thanksgiving and Christmas breakfasts.  When we were finally allowed to go eat in their restaurants Dad was overjoyed when he found oysters on dinner menus. He would always ask for them even if they were not on the menu. Mother would be embarrassed and admonish him saying “Eldred, they are not on the menu!” Dad would always smile and say “Well they might have some anyway, dear.” Sometimes he was right. We also had country ham from mother’s father’s hogs. I don’t think I ever was able to chew it and I remember it as being much too salty as well.

Mom grew up on a farm and never went hungry. Dad had seven brothers and sisters and grew up in the city of Americus, GA and remember being told to get a cane pole, go dig up some worms and don’t come home until you catch dinner. But both had Christmas trees, lights and presents. Mom said that often they would only get a fruit basket with nuts and candy canes. She said that the oranges were the special treat and it would take them a week to eat a candy cane only taking a lick or two each day. She said that if she got a doll, she knew that her mother had made it and loved it even more.

Dad said that his Christmas presents were much the same except they would always get at least one toy like a yo-yo or spinning top. Thanksgiving and Christmas were the only meals when he knew they would have meat. Maybe that is why he insisted on meat at every meal and was lavish with his gift giving to us. We would look through the Sears Roebuck catalog and pick out what we wanted. I don’t ever remember them saying no. But we never asked for much. We shopped from the catalog because my parents wouldn’t patronize the segregated department stores downtown. We would get a bicycle, or skates or cap guns with cowboy hats. But same was true for the other kids in our neighborhood and we would all meet in the middle of the street to compare gifts, to skate or ride our bikes. Sometimes we played touch football. I was so non athletic that I would never get picked and when I did they would just tell me to go long.

The holidays always started with the lighting of a gigantic Christmas tree atop Rich’s, the local department store in Atlanta. We would join the multitude of people downtown. It was always a festive event. The day after Thanksgiving all the Christmas decorations would go up. Dad loved Christmas. We always had a live tree, candles in all the windows and lights strewn everywhere around the yard. Once my brother joked that turning on the lights would probably cause a citywide brownout.

My parents and brother are now gone but the memories remain. I now try to spend at least one of the holidays with one of my children – who live far apart. Their houses are always festive with their families joining them. It is a time of joy but as joyous as it is, the memories of the old days will never fade and always come back unbidden with a tear or two glistening in my eyes. Every day I miss my parents but especially during the holidays.

The Fed’s December Open Market Committee meeting

This next Open Market Committee meeting will be one of the most interesting is recent times. It will be a test to see which side prevails, the one most concerned with inflation or the one most concerned with unemployment. Although I am one who thinks that the Fed should jettison its dual mandate and concentrate only on inflation, I realize that others disagree. Nonetheless, a reduction in the Fed funds rate will not have a direct impact on employment. In fact it may not have even an indirect impact. In these days, it appears that there is more displacement due to technological change than there is due to slack demand. So lowering interest rates will have little effect on unemployment but rather will add to the inflationary pressures.

Chairman Powell indicated at the annual Jackson Hole conference that there were going to be three rate decreases this year. There have been two. Will there be three? New York Fed president Williams has indicated as much. In a speech given in Chile (these central bankers love their junkets), Williams said that interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market. “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive…Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral.” Williams, who has a permanent seat on the FOMC and is considered an ally of Chairman Powell, is not likely to make such a statement unless endorsed by the chairman.

However, other Fed presidents appear not to be on board. Kansas City president Schmid, who dissented at the last cut has not changed his view. Boston Fed president Susan Collins thinks that the current rate is about in the right place. So does Dallas president Lorie Logan who favors no change too. Logan, who is a protegee of New York’s Williams seems to disagree with him and said “In the absence of clear evidence that justifies further easing, holding rates steady for a time would allow the FOMC to better assess the degree of restriction from current policy.”

There is something called the CME FedWatch Barometer that gives odds of a rate cut. It is obviously confused. After the Jackson Hole meeting it gave odds of 92% for a rate cut. Then the odds fell to 32% after the last meeting of the Open Market Committee. Now with Williams speech the odds are back up to 73%. I think it may be closer to 50-50.

Some say that all this indicates that the members of the committee are sharply divided as to what to do. Those divisions were shown in the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting with the two dissents. Three dissents are extremely rate and a vote with more would indicate that Powell has lost control of the committee. It will be interesting to see how markets would react. Traditionally, the reserve bank presidents who are more insulated from the pressures of Washington are more conservative in their policy decisions than are the governors.

We all know that the president wants lower rates. He has badgered Powell to lower the Fed funds rate to a rate as low as one percent. His surrogate at the Fed, Stephen Miran will press for a 50 basis point cut but will fail. What is interesting is that Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson are expert labor economists and have a special interest in unemployment issues. Their inclination would be to vote for a decrease in the rate – which would be interesting in the case of Cook who Trump is trying to fire. It would also be particularly interesting if Powell votes for a cut given all the vitriol hurled at him by the president who recently said, and I quote, “I’ll be honest, I’d love to fire his ass.”

Trump, obviously, doesn’t intimidate Powell. It would be human for Powell to push for a rise in the rate just to strike back at the president. However, that has not happened. Rather his comments show restraint and dignity. I presume that he will continue to do what he thinks is best for the country and seek to persuade the other members of the committee to do so as well. In the end, I think we will see nine OMC members inclined to cut (Powell, Williams,Miran, Waller, Barr, Jefferson, Cook, Bowman and Goolsbee), and three against (Collins, Musalem and Schmid).

MTG quits, Mechanics wanted, Putin’s (?) Ukraine surrender proposal

Marjorie Taylor Greene the author of some of the weirdest comments of anyone in Washington, finally started to make some sense and is leaving the congress because Trump threatened to primary her. It was probably due to her pushing for the release of the Epstein files (raise your hands if you are sick and tired of hearing that name). Trump had said that MTG had aligned herself with Thomas Massie, the republican that Trump hates the most, in calling for release of the files. But Trump was probably upset with her when after he said about Pelosi retiring, that Pelosi was evil and corrupt and that her retiring was a great thing for America, MTG said “I served under her speakership in my first term of Congress, and I’m very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party, like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party.” She also said “The cost of health care is killing people. That should be the top issue. Cost of living, electrical bills haven’t gone down, they’ve gone up. They’re dramatically higher, cost of food has gone up.” Did Trump get upset by these comments and take them as being critical of his management of the economy? 

Trump, ever the statesman tweeted “because of PLUMMETING Poll Numbers, and not wanting to face a Primary Challenger with a strong Trump Endorsement (where she would have no chance of winning!), has decided to call it ‘quits.’” Of course, that is not true. MTG would have won re-election easily in a district where a ham sandwich with R by its name would garner 65 percent of the vote.

But Trump was calling her “wacky” and Marjorie “Traitor” Greene. She then responded “But even through this, I still support the Trump administration and want to see it succeed for the American people.”

Thomas Massie said “I’m very sad for our country but so happy for my friend Marjorie. I’ll miss her tremendously.”

Drop out of Harvard to be a mechanic?

With one of the topics of the day being the value of a college education, Ford is looking for a few good mechanics at $120,000 a year. That’s right. Ford’s CEO Jim Farley says that 5,000 mechanics jobs are unfilled despite paying $120,000 a year. He says “We are in trouble in our country. We are not talking about this enough. We have over a million openings in critical jobs, emergency services, trucking, factory workers, plumbers, electricians and tradesmen.” Farley, of course is right. We do have a severe deficit of skilled workers. Remember the raid on the Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia? Only 114,000 Americans in their 20s completed vocational programs during the first 10 months of last year, compared to 1.24 million who graduated from four-year colleges and 405,000 who received advanced degrees. There would be nothing wrong with this if those who graduated from college actually learned something rather than the mush that is dished out with a grade of “A” for attendance.

Of course the president wants to shut down immigration that includes H1-B workers. Yes I know there have been abuses in the system but if we cannot grow our own skilled workers and we cannot import them, what are we to do? This is from the Wall Street Journal “The National Federation of Independent Business reported this month that one third of small business owners reported jobs they couldn’t fill, and 49% reported few or no qualified applicants for positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-seven percent cited labor quality as their most important problem.” Does JD Vance know how to repair an F-250?

Trump’s Ukraine (surrender) proposal

Correct me if I misinterpreted the president’s surrender (er, peace) proposal for Ukraine. It says that Ukraine should cede land to Russia, some of which is not even occupied by the Russians, reduce the size of its army, never join NATO and recognize Russian control of Crimea. Trump is saying that accept this or else we will stop supporting Ukraine militarily. Did Trump’s buddy Vladimir Putin write this proposal? Sure sounds like it. If Ukraine capitulates, then expect Putin to ramp up his war because you can bet that Trump is not going to send the US military to fight Russia in the Ukraine. Trump insists that this is Europe’s war – and it is. Maybe he is hopeful that Ukraine will reject this outrageous offer so he can wash his hands of the whole matter and let the Europeans deal with it. The underlying question is that if Russia decides to attack NATO will Trump honor this country’s commitment to defend it?

For me what is equally outrageous is the offer to rescue Russia financially. The document reads “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy and return to make the G7 again the G8 group of nations.” Also the U.S. will enter some “long-term economic cooperation agreement” with Russia. Yep. Putin had to have written this “agreement”. Naturally, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to put some lipstick on this pig by saying “This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation, after four years of a devastating war, to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give.” Win-win? 

Is “affordable” housing affordable?

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing as housing where the occupant is paying 30% or less of the gross income on total housing, including utilities, insurance, maintenance and property taxes so that other basic expenses like food, healthcare, transportation and education can be covered. Low affordability is considered 60%. This definition on its surface holds regardless of the value of the home. That is, a million dollar home is “affordable” if its occupants are paying 30 percent or less of their gross income on total housing expenses. 

I think one of the main problems in the discussion of “affordable housing” is the mixing of rentals with single family homes. The market is bifurcated with many renters preferring not to purchase a home as well as many unable to purchase a single family dwelling. For example, since illegals are more likely to rent than to purchase, their influx into an area should mainly affect only rental prices and not the “affordability” of single family homes.

“Affordable housing” is being used today to include both first time home buyers and lower income households who typically rent. Homes may be “unaffordable” because the existing housing stock does not match the income, tastes and preferences of the renters or home buyers. Consider that there are available homes and apartments but they are either too expensive and that less expensive stock is located in “less desirable” locations. The mismatch between where homes sit empty and where demand is growing helps explain why the market remains tight despite so many vacant properties.

For home buyers some homes that are desirable are out of reach because of financing costs. A $400,000 home with 20 percent down payment and a 3.5 percent interest rate, which was as recently as 2021, has a monthly payment (principal and interest) of around $1,440. At a rate today of around 6.5 percent, that same home would be $2,020 per month, or around 40 percent higher. Third, this does not include insurance, maintenance and property taxes which in some instances is a contributor to delinquency and foreclosure. 

There are currently around 16 million vacant homes so some would argue that there is not a shortage of homes. However, about a third of these homes are seasonal or recreational properties in destinations like Florida and Arizona. The question though is where there is a lack of “affordable” housing, given demand then why isn’t that housing being built?

Given the stock of existing housing what makes housing unaffordable? There are financing costs, the ability to pay insurance, property taxes and maintenance, and a mismatch between the location of the home and the desirability to live there. The question, therefore arises as to why cannot the stock be increased where households want to reside? There impediments such as regulations, building costs, the cost of labor and limitations on land use. 

I have seen advocates talk of “more people in need of a home than there are homes available” which is a totally meaningless statement. Land use and restrictions or limits on property density could prevent the construction of an apartment building, the construction of single-family houses or the construction of modular homes, “tiny” houses or even trailer parks. Other restrictions on apartment construction such as a minimum number of parking spaces per unit or the number of elevators can add thousands of dollars per unit to the total cost of the project. Overall about 24% of the cost of a single-family home is due to regulations at all three levels of local, state and federal government.

Also consider the case of New York City where the number of rent-stabilized apartment vacancies are over 61,000. Rent-stabilized apartments represent nearly half of all rental housing in the city and are among the most

“affordable” places to live in New York where the average rent is over $4,000. Landlords say that the current price restrictions on stabilized housing robs them of the capital needed to make necessary repairs in older housing stock, hence the vacancies. There is currently a lawsuit against the city by landlords on this issue. Mamdani says that he wants to build 200,000 “affordable” housing units for households earning less than $70,000 a year at the cost of $100 billion. That is $500,000 per unit. Typically, those units would rent for $5,000 per month. Mamdani has not said what would be the rent on these units. However, the rents would be rent-controlled and frozen. That should eliminate private developers. But thirty percent of $70,000 would set the rent at $1,750 for the lucky ones who would get such a unit. That rules out private developers. How would the city bear the loss? And where would the units be located? Details. Details.

The Trump administration is supposedly looking into ways to make housing more affordable. I can guarantee that whatever they come up with will either not help or will make the matters worse. Unfortunately, they, like the socialists love to freeze prices, but the only way to make things more affordable lie in the factors determining housing prices via supply and housing demand. What policies are there to reduce house prices, rental prices and financing costs?

Since reducing the cost of financing a mortgage would make homes more affordable then isn’t the Fed to blame as the president says? No. Mortgage rates are more tied to the 10 year Treasury that the Fed funds rate. The primary cause of the higher rates is the government itself by continuing to borrow in financial markets to finance its ever growing debt. In economics we call this crowding out” where when the government enters the financial market to borrow to fund spending, interest rates rise due to the government demand. That increase in interest rates makes private investment more expensive and reduces the investments in the private sector. So a decrease in the rate of government spending would have the result of reducing mortgage rates and making home financing more affordable. So Mr President, don’t blame Jerome Powell, blame yourself and Scott Bessent.

If influx of illegals cause housing costs to increase then mass deportations cause housing costs to fall. Right?

Affordability is the new buzz word. President Trump benefited from President Biden’s mismanagement of the economy and now the pundits are saying that the recent victories by democrats in New Jersey, New York, Virginia and Georgia are a product of Trump’s mismanagement of the economy perpetuating the crisis of affordability. While the term applies to a wide variety of prices a good deal of recent conversations has focused on housing affordability. When Biden was president and Trump was on the campaign trail, Trump pointed the blame for the high cost of housing on the surge of illegal immigrants during the Biden years. Pointing out that an average of 2.5 million illegals per year had come into the country, Trump said that deporting millions of illegals would positively impact the U.S. housing market by freeing homes for Americans and boosting inventory across the country. Has it?

Now elected, his vice president, JD Vance has put the high cost of housing squarely on the influx of illegals. Vance said “A lot of young people are saying, housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegals who are taking houses that ought, by right, to go to American citizens.”

You know, it sounds reasonable. But as my father used to say to me “That sounds good – if you are interested in sounds.” It’s an empirical question. One would think that the areas where the illegals settled would have seen a surge in prices greater than the country at large. Although Vance attributes the high cost of housing to the illegals, one would think the impact would be on the rental market rather than the market for homes. 

Shouldn’t prices be higher in areas with more illegals? Fed governor Michelle Bowman said “Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents.” There are empirical questions that need to be researched regarding whether the low inventory and resulting high prices are due to the illegals. Studies of the question should look at supply factors as well as demand.

Here is what two different studies have found. One study looked at the housing market and finds that there is “no significant relationship between unauthorized immigrants and general house price growth for each state in the U.S.” The study entitled “Beyond the hype: Unauthorized immigrants and the myth of rising house prices.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612325001503

Here is its abstract:

“A recent social and economic issue has addressed public attention: whether unauthorized immigrants drive up local housing prices. This study focuses on this issue and finds no significant relationship between unauthorized immigrants and general house price growth for each state in the U.S. We prove the robustness of this insignificance by addressing the endogeneity issue and applying alternative variables to measure house prices and the number of unauthorized immigrants. This study highlights the importance of ensuring political and public discourse based on evidence and rigorous analysis rather than oversimplified narratives.”

Another study looked at the growth in rents and home prices and data indicate that the timing of the recent immigration surge does not align with the significant increases in rents and home prices observed at the onset of the pandemic. While immigrants contribute to household growth, the surge in housing demand during the pandemic was primarily driven by native-born households amid a constrained housing supply.

 (https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs

I find both studies interesting although I would have modelled the research a bit differently. I would have concentrated on the rental market where one writer notes “For renters, things have gotten less bad. The rate of increase in

rents has flattened in most local markets and has even declined slightly in some areas. This is, in part, because the rent growth was so high over mid-2021 through mid-2023 that there was perhaps nowhere to go but down in terms of the rate of increase. But it also appears to be the case that a relatively large supply of new apartment construction coming online has moderated rent growth, providing some critical relief to cost-burdened renters. That said, a record number of renters are experiencing housing cost burden—defined as spending more than 30 percent of gross income on housing costs.”

Experts say that Illegals primarily rent rather than buy because of limitations on buying because of their legal status. Illegals are also more likely to double up or live with extended family members or nonrelatives compared to U.S.-born households. Again, this means that the primary impact would be in the rental market rather than the home purchase area.

Also have the mass deportations lowered rental and housing costs? Again this is an empirical question. Trump claimed that it would but so far the evidence is contrary. Some observers find the opposite has happened. Here is what some researchers have found “We’re able to show that when you increase immigration enforcement, you do in fact generate a reduction in the number of individuals who are supplying labor to the construction industry in a given county. We show that those reductions in workforce are associated with a large

decline in homebuilding.” Mass deportations, the researchers concluded, cause reductions in the construction sector’s workforce and residential homebuilding, decreasing construction and increasing home prices. Oops.

On the other side are two studies that make the argument that the influx of illegals has caused the price of housing to rise. One is from the website “Populist Policy” entitled “How illegal migrants drive up housing costs.” https://populistpolicy.org/how-illegal-migrants-drive-up-housing-costs/

The other is J.P. Morgan’s “The outlook for the US housing market in 2025 which has the sole statement “It’s estimated that there are 11.2 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., and that number may be higher. This could be ramping up housing demand more than figures suggest, resulting in a shortage of stock.”

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/real-estate/us-housing-market-outlook

In sum, it appears that the influx of illegals did not increase home prices due to their occupying rental homes. However, mass deportations caused a restriction in construction decreasing the construction of new housing and contributed to the rise in home prices. As to the rental market, I withhold judgment. The studies’ specifications do not actually address this question properly. Yet

while illegals may play some role in affecting housing prices, the majority of the reasons that there are increases in housing are other factors separate from the aliens that are due to the actions of governments at all levels. I will post another piece going into details those reasons for the high housing prices.

Kirby Smart and today’s world of NIL

Georgia’s Kirby Smart sometimes says smart things – although he should have kicked that field goal against Alabama. He recently said after the Dawgs throttled Texas 35-10 that “I don’t know that a lot of these kids nowadays, they want the check. They don’t want physicality. When you have the check and no physicality, you end up with nothing. So you’re not just getting checks at our place. We’re hitting people.” Smart is obviously saying that in today’s world where you have to pay your players that some just want the money and are not willing – or motivated – to put in the work it takes to win championships. Was he pointing a finger at the high priced Texas team that his Dawgs just embarrassed? His Georgia team has shown toughness and resiliency, especially in the fourth quarter where some teams simply fade. He is also sending a message to recruits that Georgia will pay their players, but the players must earn it, put in the work and be tough.

Georgia was one of the finalists for the coveted recruit Arch Manning. I blame my granddaughter who hosted Manning on his campus visit for his not signing with Georgia and going to Texas. I wonder what would Manning be like if he were wearing Red and Black rather than burnt orange? Regardless, Georgia’s quarterback Gunner Stockton seems perfect for the team and epitomizes Kirby’s mantra of toughness. I like him. Stockton drives an old Ford F-150 not the Lamborghini of his predecessor who left Georgia to be paid $4,000,000  (more than he would have gotten in the pros) to throw interceptions for the Miami Hurricanes. Stockton’s NIL valuation is only seventh among Georgia players and 53^rd among all college quarterbacks. He doesn’t seem like a prima donna.

Smart is smart. He is sending a message to all recruits. If you come to Georgia, you will get paid but you will have to earn your money. My other team is Ohio State (then the Tennessee Vols) who were roundly criticized last year for the money they spent on a team that won the national championship. But Texas was the top spender followed by Texas Tech, then followed by Ohio State, Oregon (Phil Knight), Texas A&M and Miami. Tennessee was ninth on the list and kicked out their starting quarterback who boycotted spring practice demanding more money. There were even stories of players refusing to play in the bowl games unless they were paid more. 

For the major schools, only the playoffs matter. But NIL matters as well. Texas Tech went out and bought a defensive line of players who all likely will be drafted in the first round. They are ranked seventh in the latest poll. Ohio State (Go Bucks!) is number one followed by Indiana (Indiana?), Texas A&M, Georgia and Oregon. Ole Miss is sixth. NIL obviously matters but Indiana shows the exception to the rule. The other programs are traditional powerhouses before NIL but you still have to recruit the right type of athlete and coach them up. One thing I would like to see changed is to not allow the players to jump from one program to another. Some players are on their fourth team although I do like allowing players to transfer when their coach gets fired.

I feel for the schools that do not have the NIL resources. If they have a star, that player can be approached and bid away by the richer programs. Yet coaches and athletic directors get fired because of losing games and not being bowl eligible, despite not being able to compete for four star and five star talent or to hold on to them if they do sign them. It probably is more difficult to stress the value of an education in this environment. I wonder if we will get to the point where going to class becomes optional although now you can say that if you don’t go to class and stay eligible, you won’t get paid.

But to win championships in this environment ultimately, comes down to asking your players “are you man enough?” Remember the song by that title by the Four Tops?

“Are you man enough, big and bad enough?
Are you gonna let ’em shoot ya down?
When the evil flies and your brother cries
Are you gonna be around?

Someone needs a friend, just around the bend
Don’t ya think you should be there?
Are you man enough when the goin’s rough?
Is it in your heart to care?”

My Dawgs care.

Chip Roy and the Sharia Boogie Man

Immigration is causing some republicans to lose their minds. Trump said in an interview that he might allow a few H1-Bs into the country and the MAGA than thous went ballistic. VP Vance wants all immigration shut down claiming somewhat bizarrely that the illegal immigrants are the blame for the housing shortage. Yep, its those folk coming across the border that are buying up all the $300,000 houses.

In the Vance camp is Chip Roy who is introducing legislation to completely freeze immigration. He calls it the “Pause Act” and says the country is dealing with a “cultural problem about who we are as Americans.” He then says “Why don’t we just freeze immigration entirely until we sort this crap out? Until we figure out who’s here, why they’re here, how many Chinese communists, how many people who are Islamists who want to remake America, how many people that are living on the public dole, that are living on welfare, that are going into the emergency room.” Then “We’re dealing with a mass community that is growing up that have no desire to assimilate and come here to become American and embrace Western civilization, embrace our Constitution, embrace our values,” Roy said. “Why are we importing any human being that is adherent to Sharia law, which is totally contrary to the Constitution and our values in Western civilization?

I guess Roy is referring to the proposed city 40 miles from Dallas called Epic City. It was supposed to be an Islamic residential community. Some called it the Sharia City and was vetoed by Governor Abbott who in turn designated the Muslim Brotherhood and the Council on American-Islamic Relations terrorist organizations. Roy may also be concerned about the concentration of Somali Muslim in Minneapolis that elected Ilhan Omar and almost elected a Muslim mayor who was defeated due to a conflict between his sect and the other predominate Muslim sect in the city. Other Muslims in congress are Indiana’s Andre Carson, Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib and California’s Lateefah Simon. Roy is a smart guy and he probably knows that Muslims do practice Sharia Law much the same as other religions practice their “laws.” Maybe he wants to deport the Muslims that are here alleging that they are Muslims first rather than Americans. Or maybe he will follow his governor’s lead and declare Omar and Tlaib terrorists.

Chip Roy is in the US Congress along with Omar, Tlaib, Carson and Simon. Do they along with AOC, Pressley and members of the progressive caucus take the Congressional oath of office? “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.” If not, then they should be impeached.

Regarding Sharia Law. Consider that Muslims in the U.S. routinely use religious tribunals and arbitration panels to resolve family, inheritance, and commercial disputes within an Islamic legal framework; these voluntary processes mirror mediation used by many faith communities. When parties agree to arbitration, courts can enforce those decisions under the 1925 Federal Arbitration Act, provided the awards do not conflict with U.S. public policy or statutory rights, meaning private Sharia-based agreements can have legal force if they fit within established arbitration law.”  “For most American Muslims, Sharia functions as a personal and communal guide rather than a parallel legal system. Practices commonly shaped by Islamic law include prayer schedules, fasting during Ramadan, halal dietary rules, marriage contracts, and voluntary dispute resolution through community boards; these practices are largely private and accommodated within the broader American legal framework.”

See https://factually.co/fact-checks/society/sharia-law-practice-muslims-united-states-b4b879

To my knowledge Sharia in the United States is not allowed to reign over some local laws and jurisdictions like in other countries such as France or England.

Why Roy is afraid of Sharia law is beyond me. There is no chance that there will be a radical Muslim takeover of America and an imposition of Sharia law. Do you think that say for instance it could be imposed in Knoxville? Fat chance. I don’t know what Roy is really after but it seems that his professed worries of a takeover by the Muslims is a bit far fetched. I am old enough to remember when John F, Kennedy was running for president and some fundamentalists were asking if his allegiance to his Catholic religion and to the Pope would supersede his allegiance to the Constitution. At other points in time, some others asked the same about Jews in American politics and loyalty to Israel.

However, I do agree that we may be trouble as a country but it is not because of immigration. Recall Roy said that the country is dealing with a “cultural problem about who we are as Americans.” In that he is correct. When 62 percent of the democrats favor socialism over capitalism, when the majority of democrats polled said that they would not defend the country if invaded, we are in trouble as a country. Only 36% of democrats say they are very proud to be an American. Thirty-seven percent of democrats say that patriotism has a negative impact on the country. And this is not due to Donald Trump either. 

Less than 35 percent of Americans can pass the citizenship test given to immigrants seeking to become naturalized citizens, 57% do not know how many justices sit on the Supreme Court. Most Americans think we are a democracy and not a republic. How many know their senators or representatives? How many can name the three branches of government? Hardly no one knows how laws are proposed and enacted.

Justice Neal Gorsuch said that the greatest danger facing the country was “itself.” Here is what he said: “Thomas Jefferson said an ignorant people will never remain free for long and he is right. We need to know our history in order to preserve it.” He is right. This is the product of our “education” system that fails in every aspect. Our public school children are woefully ignorant. They cannot read, write or do math. They do not know civics. They are taught to embrace climate change, DEI, critical race theory and socialism. No Chip Roy, the danger is not Sharia Law, the danger is ourselves. So don’t blame the Muslims for the deterioration of American values, blame teachers including yours in Texas, blame the democratic socialists, blame AOC, Mamdani and Chuck Schumer. Blame Randi Weingarten. Stop immigration? I am surprised that he didn’t say that we should deport the democrats.

Is the president fraying a bit around the edges?

Being president is extraordinarily difficult and takes a toll on its occupant – see how Bill Clinton and Barack Obama look. Trump sometimes just goes off the rails which is understandable given the stress of the job. Lately he has decided to revisit his tariffs while still insisting that the exporter pays the tariffs even though domestic prices are nonetheless rising. He has lashed out at one of his staunch supporters, Marjorie Taylor Greene because she is not 100 percent MAGA. Greene had been calling for the release of the Epstein files. The president said “I understand that wonderful, Conservative people are thinking about primarying Marjorie in her District of Georgia, that they too are fed up with her and her antics and, if the right person runs, they will have my Complete and Unyielding Support.” Trump called her a Republican in name only and said she was a disgrace to the party. He also said “I am withdrawing my support and Endorsement of “Congresswoman” Marjorie Taylor Greene, of the Great State of Georgia. All I see ‘Wacky’ Marjorie do is COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN, COMPLAIN!” Somehow I don’t think this president should call anyone “wacky”. 

For her part Greene said “I have supported President Trump with too much of my precious time, too much of my own money, and fought harder for him even when almost all other Republicans turned their back and denounced him. But I don’t worship or serve Donald Trump.” And I was one who always thought that MTG was a bit of a kook – see her exchange with Jasmine Crockett and other episodes – but here, I admire her courage as being one of the few republicans to actually have a backbone when it comes to the president.

Now that the president has changed his mind and says that the Epstein files can be released does this mean that he and MTG will once again be buds?

And speaking of letting the pressures get to him, the president is now blaming the Fed for the housing crisis. “Could somebody please inform Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell that he is hurting the housing industry, very badly? “People can’t get a mortgage because of him.” So it’s the Fed’s fault, is it? I guess the president is saying that because the Fed was slow to lower rates that mortgage rates are so high that people are not buying houses. Trump then called Powell a “maniac” (again I don’t think this president should be calling any one a maniac) and “The biggest hindrance for housing is mortgage rates. If the Fed brings down mortgage rates, then they can end this housing recession.” I wonder if Bessent is going to have to correct him again because he is wrong but feels the need to reflect the blame of the economy on the Fed (or on Biden).

Sorry Mr President, but the Fed affects short rates and not mortgage rates. Someone needs to tell him that while the Fed has decreased the Fed funds rates, mortgage rates have risen – not fallen as he would assert. Someone should show him this article from the economists at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta that tests the relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates entitle “Not joined at the hip.”

https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/economic-research/2025/11/10/not-joined-at-the-hip-relationship-between-the-fed-funds-rate-and-mortgage-rates

But it won’t matter, will it? Mortgage rates are up because long term Treasuries remain elevated. The 10 year Treasury is usually the benchmark rate with mortgage rates about 2 to 3 percent or so higher. Since long rates are influenced by inflationary expectations, Trump should look in the mirror and blame himself. His tariffs, the growing federal deficit, inflationary expectations are all a product of his policies which are keeping the long term rates high. So to get the 30 year mortgage rate below six percent, the 10 year Treasury should be around 3 ½ percent. So Mr President, go after the Treasury and not the Fed. Fat chance.

A few random thoughts

What do you mean we don’t grow cows?

Treasury secretary Bessent who has become the Trump translator has announced that soon the tariffs on things we do not produce like bananas, citrus and coffee (why do they keep ignoring Kona?) will be lifted. He also mentioned Argentine beef. I thought we produced cattle? What about Brazil? They produce 50 percent of our coffee and are subject to an outlandish 50 percent tariff. Some say that the president is addressing the issue of affordability. But if the export countries are paying the tariffs as he keeps insisting then there would be no need to lift the tariffs since they obviously (in the president’s mind) have no impact whatsoever on consumer prices.

Bye, bye CFPB (for now)

I guess someone in the administration has been reading my blogs and finally got the CFPB’s funding declared illegal. Elizabeth Warren’s child, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is not appropriated by the Congress but rather its funding comes solely out of the Federal Reserve. The administration tried to get the courts to rule that the funding arrangement was illegal but was rebuffed. However, the law says that the funding comes from the Fed’s profits Well the Fed has been running a deficit since 2022 so there has been no surplus earnings. Thus, when current funding expires at the end of the year, there will be no more funding of the CFPB until the Fed starts to run a profit. So if the CFPB is going to operate, it must be appropriated by the Congress. Fat chance with the republicans in control.

Housing affordability?

The notion of a 50 year mortgage won’t have any impact on home affordability. Another somewhat screwy idea is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dropping the 620 FICO score requirement. Supposedly this is to help first time home buyers. But isn’t this shades of what helped precipitate the mortgage crisis? Subprime lenders were vilified for not using FICO scores as an important factor in their underwriting decision. Are we going to go down that route again in the name of home affordability?

Speaking of which there are now over 900,000 homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, meaning that they owe more than the value of their homes. Again this sounds like the mortgage crisis of 2007 resulting in many homeowners walking away from their mortgages and increased foreclosures. And by the way, foreclosures in October increased 20 percent, giving more indication of stress in the housing market. Well this time if the market collapses they can’t blame it on subprime mortgages.

How did we forget about Seattle?

With all the attention on Mamdani’s win in New York and all the gnashing of teeth from the right, little attention was paid to another democratic socialist democrat being elected in Seattle. Speaking of Seattle, Cal Raleigh not Aaron Judge should have been American League MVP. Raleigh finished second. Yes Judge had a great year but Raleigh was the best player at baseball’s most demanding position. He had 60 home runs, 125 RBIs and won both a gold glove and a platinum glove. At least it should have been a tie.

Back to the new mayor of Seattle. She is Katie Wilson who founded a nonprofit that pays her $80,000 a year. She is a college dropout, gets an allowance from her parents, doesn’t own a car, rides a bicycle or public transportation and her husband doesn’t have a job. She says that she pays $2,000 a month rent and $2,000 a month childcare. What I want to know is why does she need childcare if her husband isn’t working. Wilson says she will Trump-proof the city, institute city-run grocery stores (sounds familiar?), tax the rich and free public transportation (no kidding). She says she is a democrat and that she is a socialist which I guess makes her a democratic socialist. Sounds like the perfect person to run a city with a $9 billion budget. Wilson beat the incumbent mayor and also every incumbent (democrat) on the ballot lost to socialists. While another well known socialist AOC was a bartender, Katie says “I worked a bunch of working-class jobs” with brief stints in a lab, a bakery, a law office and in construction. Wilson who rents says she wants to fix things for regular, working people through policies like renter protections against unnecessary fees and exorbitant rent increases. Yep sounds like the perfect mayor for Seattle the home of Amazon, Costco, Microsoft Starbucks, Expedia and Weyerhaeuser.

IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! and other thoughts

The sea is rising! The sea is rising!

It is somewhat fitting that the UN’s annual conference on the climate is in Brazil. The alarmists are probably warning of doom and gloom because the sea level in the Caribbean has just risen. But chill, its just the arrival of the aircraft carrier, Gerald R. Ford, and its carrier group. The Ford is the navy’s largest boat and with it comes two guided-missile destroyers the USS Bainbridge and the USS Mahan and the USS Winston S. Churchill, an air and missile defense command ship. We have a boat named after Winston Churchill? Who knew? I do remember the Simon Bolivar, a ballistic missile submarine.

New York’s rent controlled units are now going to be rent controlled?

I had previously asked if someone could explain New York’s rent controls to me. My granddaughter who lives in Brooklyn tried. Two million New Yorkers live in rent controlled units. Doesn’t this mean that rent controls already exist? So Mamdani is going to freeze the rent on units that are already rent controlled? Mamdani got elected because of issues of affordability including the cost of housing. Well there are at least 26,000 empty units in the city that are empty because they are rent controlled and they sit empty because the cost of fixing them up cannot be recouped due to their rents being frozen. Now there is a lawsuit brought by two landlords against the city that the rent controls constitute a constitutional taking since the limits on what they can charge forces them to take losses. The Wall Street Journal says “When rents are regulated so that a property can only be rented at a loss, the plaintiffs argue that it qualifies as a taking under the Fifth Amendment. Because New York’s rent restrictions mostly apply to buildings constructed before 1974, the rent stabilization is also arbitrary and violates equal protection and due process rights.” In Lucas v. South Carolina Coastal Council (1992), the Supreme Court held that if the government prevents all economically beneficial use of property, it is a taking. Does this mean that the Court could rule rent controls unconstitutional?.

A somewhat divided Fed

The next meeting of the Open Market Committee is December 9-10. At its last meeting the Fed funds rate was lowered 25 basis points. Governor Trump – er Miran – dissented wanting a 50 basis point cut while Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed voted to hold. Now it looks like although Chairman Powell had hinted earlier that there would be another 25 basis point drop, several members of the Open Market Committee seem to be set on joining Schmid for no change because of inflationary worries. The government shutdown had affected the flow of data to the Fed. Powell actually said something about making blind decisions – which was scoffed at by Governor Waller. But prices are still increasing while job growth is stagnant and even falling. So on the one hand, decrease rates because of rising unemployment. On the other hand, raise rates due to increases in inflation. On the other hand, do nothing. Sort of reminds me of Lucky Pererson’s Three Handed Woman (left handed, tight handed and underhanded too).

Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed (and a coauthor) just announced his retirement effective at the end of this term. Again, all the reserve bank presidents serve five year terms that renew in years ending in six and one. Mandatory retirement age is 65. Raphael is 59 and there is speculation as to why he is retiring now. There is also speculation as to whether Trump will try to influence the reappointment of the reserve bank presidents. The new presidents are nominated by their bank’s board of directors but must be approved by the Board of Governors. Some wonder if the President will attempt to influence the selection at the reserve bank level. Then others wonder if he will try to have his appointees on the Fed board influence whether or not a certain reserve bank president will be reappointed. Only the president knows.

The 50 year mortgage

The president keeps telling us how great the economy is. Remember his latest ransom note? “We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER.” Well then why is affordability becoming the issue in the coming elections? All the democrats who just won ran on affordability and if we were doing so great then that would not have been an issue. IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID! So the president’s man Bill Pulte has put forth the idea of the 50 year mortgage to make housing more affordable. Yes it would lower the monthly mortgage payment but it would also increase tremendously the amount of interest paid on the loan (maybe a deduction). 

Go to any mortgage calculator and here is what you will find: On a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with house price of $400,000, 20% down, financing $320,000 for 30 years, the monthly payment is $1,914.45, total interest $309,201 and in 2044, most of the payment starts to go to principal. If this is a 50 year mortgage, the monthly payment is $1,670.77, total interest is $687,860 and most of the payment goes to principal twenty years later in 2064. So how about your basic million dollar payout on a $400,000 home? I am assuming no insurance and no property tax in the calculations. So does saving $244 a month make the 50 year mortgage more “affordable”. I seriously doubt it.

Anyway the law would have to be changed to allow such a loan and the rules changed to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy them. Since when the mortgage is getting paid down, initially most money goes to interest and little goes to principal, a 50 year mortgage would mean that equity would be built more slowly. In the housing crisis of 2007, many homeowners walked away from their mortgages because the amount they owed was greater than the equity in the house. This problem would be compounded with a 50 year mortgage. My feeling is that they should be allowed and let the consumer and the lender craft a mortgage instrument that is best for both parties. Anyway the mortgage is likely to be sold by the originator.

Nonetheless, many voted for Trump because of the Biden economy. Now the voters in Virginia, New Jersey and even Georgia where two democrats were elected to the Public Service Commission – the first time since 2006 that democrats had won those statewide positions – do not bode well for those reeling from the Trump economy. Those polled saying they are worse off equal the numbers of Biden’s. I think that Trump has blown a golden opportunity to put the economy on a solid growth path with his economic politics. Vivek Ramaswamy said “Our side needs to focus on affordability. Make the American dream affordable. Bring down costs—electric costs, grocery costs, health care costs and housing costs—and lay out how we’re going to do it.” I say do it by using the market not like Trump’s flirtation with socialism where he wants to fix prices, threaten businesses, take equity positions in corporations and all the rest. BTW, I am tired of the Trump people keep blaming Biden for all that ails us. Just like I got tired of blaming Trump for all of his administration’s woes.

Remember: IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID!

In the “what you can do I can do better” department, in the rash of all the noise seeking to link the president with Epstein by the democrats, the EMPIRE STRIKES BACK! The president is siccing his Department of “Justice” on the democrats. Here is his latest random note. “Now that the Democrats are using the Epstein Hoax, involving Democrats, not Republicans, to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN, and all of their other failures, I will be asking A.G. Pam Bondi, and the Department of Justice, together with our great patriots at the FBI, to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him.”

What was the saying about “Never argue with someone who buys ink by the barrel”? How about “Never mess with someone who can sic the DOJ, the FBI, the CIA, the IRS and Bill Pulte on you!”