Trump’s endorsements

Trump’s endorsements

The president’s hair is on fire.

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy lost his primary in Louisiana. The president was giddy with joy. Not only did Cassidy lose, he was humiliated. When in history has a sitting senator running for reelection come in third in his party’s primary? Cassidy, a physician, was seeking a third term so Louisiana voters were familiar with him. He became only the second incumbent Louisiana senator ever not to be reelected. Virtually every media outlet says this is because Trump endorsed one of his opponents and Louisiana is MAGA-land. But Cassidy did something dumb. He voted for the president’s impeachment when he knew that there was no way Trump was going to be removed by the Senate.

But did the Louisiana voters turn him out because of Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Julia Letlow as the media types proclaim? That may be true but it is also true that the state’s republican establishment also wanted Cassidy gone and supported Letlow. The state’s governor endorsed Letlow, had big donors support her and closed the state’s open primary system denying Cassidy the democrat votes he got in the past. Not surprisingly the president reveled in Cassidy’s loss calling him a “disloyal disaster” and a “terrible person” on social media and saying “Congratulations to Congresswoman Julia Letlow on a fantastic race, beating an incumbent senator by record numbers.” Letlow will now face a runoff with Louisiana state treasurer John Fleming a former congressman who served in the Trump administration as assistant secretary of Commerce for Economic Development and later as a White House aide. Despite not having Trump’s endorsement, Fleming is running as an “I-am-the-bigger-Maga-candidate.” Trump has even tweeted nice things about him.

Cassidy however could have the last laugh. Like Thom Tillis, he may become a Trump obstacle in his remaining days. He responded to Trump by saying “Insults only bother me if they come from somebody of character and integrity, I find that people of character and integrity don’t spend their time attacking people on the internet.” Ouch. Cassidy has already blocked a handful of White House appointees including Casey Means for surgeon general and still chairs the powerful Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. He has been a critic of Robert Kennedy’s vaccine policies. He also could refuse to fall in line on some key votes as well.

But Cassidy should have known better. He sealed his own fate with his impeachment vote. And Trump never forgets. “For a man with such a formidable intellect, his political strategy was breathtakingly dense,” said Lionel Rainey, a Louisiana GOP strategist. History will remember Bill Cassidy as the absolute smartest guy in the political morgue.” The question is whether Cassidy lost because of the Trump endorsement or because he was not loyal to the party? It may have been a bit of both.

Indiana

The same is true in Indiana where five republican state senators who voted against redistricting were the object of Trump’s wrath. In their primary, four of them lost. Again the media credits Trump. However, one of the state’s republican senators Jim Banks’ PACs poured millions into the races. All told, more than an astounding $13 million was spent in these state races. Most of the ads were paid for by Hoosier Leadership for America and American Leadership PAC, which are both affiliated with Banks. Turning Point Action financed volunteers going door to door. The attack ads followed the theme that the senators opposed “President Trump’s plan to remove liberal Democrats from Congress.” The media seems to have forgotten the role played by all that money injected in the races, an amount over 5,000 times what had been traditionally spent. “Nearly all of the commentary I’ve seen attributes it solely to the Trump endorsement, and I don’t think nearly enough weight is being given to the money side of things,” said Joshua Claybourn, a veteran political advisor in Southern Indiana. 

The bottom line is yes, the president was a factor. But Cassidy was his own worse enemy and the republicans in Indiana might have lost anyway but all that money and the backing of Jim Banks likely played a role in getting his supporters out to the polls to vote against the incumbents. 

Kentucky’s 4^th

The next test is Kentucky’s Thomas Massie who is the only consistent libertarian in the republican House caucus. Massie is from Trump country and Trump hates him. The president endorsed Massie’s opponent Ed Gallrein a retired Navy Seal who leads Massie in some polls while trailing in others. The president even traveled to Kentucky to campaign with Gallrein. He did not go either to Louisiana or to Indiana. As is his wont, the president blasted Massie, calling him a “nutjob” who “will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman.” At the rally for Gallrein Trump said to the crowd “I just can’t stand this guy. We have got to get rid of this loser.”  “Tom Massie of Kentucky, the worst and most unreliable Republican Congressman in the history of our Country, is an even bigger insult to our Nation than Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who suffered an unprecedented loss tonight by not even being allowed to run in the Republican Primary. Very disloyal, but Tom Massie, a major Sleazebag, is even worse!” Trump’s scathing post continued. “Kentucky, get this LOSER out of politics in Tuesday’s Election. He is nicknamed Rand Paul, Jr. another real ‘beauty,’ because of his absolutely terrible voting habits. Vote for Ed Gallrein a Successful Kentucky farmer and American War Hero who only ran because he thought that Massie was so disloyal and disrespectful to your President, ME!”

Good grief.

After the Indiana primary a Gallrein supporter tweeted “Hey @RepThomasMassie, you are next.” Massie’s primary is May 19^th.  I have posted before my admiration of Massie, one of our few principled politicians. Massie has consistently voted against increases in federal spending and what he views as violations of the US Constitution. He voted against the Big Beautiful Bill. Again money is playing a role. The race is the most expensive House primary battle in U.S. history with over $25.6 million spent in television, radio and digital advertising, as outside groups and national Republicans flood Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District with bitter attack ads.

Many of the ads are vicious, including several AI-generated “deepfakes.” One pro-Gallrein super PAC released an ad depicting Massie holding hands with Squad members Ilhan Omar and AOC and claimed Massie was “caught in a throuple.” (I wonder if Kentucky voters even know what “throuple” means). Massie’s criticism of Israel is also a key factor in the race, with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund and the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project accounting for nearly half of all super PAC spending against him.

Massie’s reaction to all this? “Dogs don’t bark at parked cars. I’m the only car moving.” So has Massie despite his roots in the district and just being one its solidly agrarian people lose his seat buried under Trump’s barrages and $25.6 million of attack ads? We will see. But a Massie loss will be one for the country and not just for Kentucky District 4.

Next up: Colorado’s Lauren Boebert, once a MAGA star and now on the hit list for endorsing Massie. Trump called her “weak minded” saying “Boebert is campaigning for the Worst “Republican” Congressman in the History of our Country, Tom Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky and anybody who can be that dumb deserves a good Primary Fight!”

There he goes again.