Trump’s War with Canada

Trump’s War with Canada

Canada’s Mark Carney says, “We are at war.”

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Trump hates Canada. He has taken a longtime ally and turned it into an economic adversary. He has belittled the country by calling it the 51st state and its prime minister “governor,” imposed sweeping tariffs, and even demanded tolls on a bridge Canada financed entirely on its own. In effect, he has demanded fealty from a sovereign nation, apparently convinced that Canadians are too intimidated by American economic muscle to push back. He tore up NAFTA, replaced it with his own deal — the USMCA — and then trashed that too as it neared renewal. His trade representative, Jamieson Greer, has even floated withdrawing from the USMCA altogether. What seems clear, at least to me, is that Trump wants to dismantle the trilateral agreement entirely and negotiate separate, bilateral deals with Mexico and Canada.

Trump flexed his economic muscles by imposing tariffs on the world and dared them to retaliate. Deals were made that lowered the tariffs on some countries in exchange for their eliminating tariffs entirely on US goods. Every country agreed – except Canada which had the temerity to reciprocate. Recall Trump’s own words: “We don’t need anything that Canada has, we don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have.” We’ll see if that holds up. He wants Canada to surrender its sovereignty and Canadians have pushed back at every turn. He slapped a 50% tariff on their steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles, then seemed genuinely surprised when Canada retaliated. Canadians pulled American liquor from store shelves and canceled U.S. vacations. Trump then imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods, down to items as small as hockey sticks and tongue depressors. He expected Canada to fold. Instead, Ottawa announced tit-for-tat tariffs on another $20 billion of U.S. goods — dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Trump, predictably, was furious at their defiance saying “Someone should get these clowns to ‘fall in line’ or, the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE!” 

That defiance came straight from the top. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada had been “attacked” by the new American tariffs: “You’re at war when you get attacked,” he said, adding that Canada had the reserves, the resilience, and the plan to respond. Carney noted that Canada had been willing to drop its remaining retaliatory tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos if Washington substantially lowered its own, and to encourage the provinces to restore U.S. alcohol sales. But he said Washington’s final demands went too far — last-minute terms that would have reduced tariff relief for Canadian-made vehicles, restricted Canada’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries, and weakened protections for the French language, culture, and sovereignty. “It’s a power play,” Carney said. “It becomes a question of sovereignty.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford — whose province is home to Canada’s auto industry — praised Carney for walking away from the deal, arguing it would have devastated Ontario’s auto, steel, and manufacturing sectors. Ford urged Canada to use “every tool in our toolbox” to fight back.

Canada and the U.S. have sparred for decades over dairy and lumber, but those disputes look trivial next to this one. They were our ally and don’t forget that Canadian soldiers fought alongside Americans in Afghanistan after 9/11. The two countries share a 5,525-mile undefended border that nearly 330,000 people and $2 billion in goods cross every single day, and roughly 800,000 Canadians live in the United States. Almost 72% of Canada’s goods exports last year went to the U.S. Trump appears to be betting that this economic dependence will force Canada to heel. So far, it’s doing the opposite — Canadians have gathered 248,000 signatures on a petition to expel the U.S. ambassador.

It looks like an attempt to break the Canadian economy in order to get his way. As Carney put it: “Last spring, I warned that America is trying to break us so they can own us, and I promised that will never, ever happen. We are keeping that promise. Canada is becoming stronger and less dependent on America.”

The irony is that the two sides appeared close to a deal. Less than two hours before new tariffs on Canadian goods were set to take effect, Trump announced a “DEAL” on social media, along with a three-day delay to let officials work out the details. Carney said negotiators had made “substantial progress.” But the talks fell apart. Carney says the U.S. made unreasonable demands, and the $900-billion-a-year trading relationship spiraled into an all-out trade war.

Carney has said flatly that “America has changed” and that the two countries will “not return to our old relationship.” Maybe not. But I’d like to think the animosity will fade and some healing can begin once Trump is out of office. I certainly hope so.