A Democrat House?
Remember when the president told voters, “Pretend I’m on the ballot”? It looks like they’ve taken him at his word.
I was recently telling a couple of friends about the latest prediction-market odds on Congress. The democrats’ chances of winning the House have been high all along, I said, and now stand at 91 percent on Polymarket. That got nothing more than a few nods. Then I mentioned the surprise: the odds of democrats taking the Senate have climbed to 64 percent. One friend went ballistic. No way, he said, was a socialist going to win Michigan, or a weirdo going to win Texas, even against an ethically challenged opponent.
Yet Polymarket gives Talarico a 64.5 percent chance in Texas and El-Sayed a 70.5 percent chance in Michigan. Elsewhere, Mary Peltola is favored in Alaska at 73.5 percent, Sherrod Brown in Ohio at 61.5 percent, and Troy Jackson in Maine at 59.5 percent. Kalshi tells the same story: 91 percent for a democrat House and 63 percent for a democrat Senate.
These are betting markets, mind you. If you feel the way my friend does, go put your money on the republicans holding the Senate. Just don’t bet on them keeping the House. History was against them from the start: the president’s party almost always loses ground in the midterms, especially when his approval rating is below 50 percent. Trump’s is around 34.
I once predicted the democrats could win as much as a 50-seat majority. That was before the republicans’ gerrymandering push. Polls now put the margin somewhere between 32 and 47 seats.
So what should we expect from a democrat House?
Impeachments, for a start. Trump has already been impeached twice, and I’d put the odds of a third at close to 100 percent. His cabinet won’t be spared either. Articles of impeachment have been filed, or soon will be, against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Education Secretary Linda McMahon, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., budget director Russ Vought, Attorney General Todd Blanche, FBI Director Kash Patel, and Homeland Security’s Markwayne Mullin.
Then come the investigations. Kimberly Strassel, my favorite columnist at the Wall Street Journal, counts 11 House committees preparing to investigate at least 26 separate subjects. Her list runs from the Trump family business, emoluments, and pardons to the $1.776 billion “antiweaponization” fund, Jeffrey Epstein, immigration shootings and deportations, Iran, Venezuela, the use of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as diplomats, the Board of Peace, the Qatari Air Force One, tariffs, DOGE, the firing of inspectors general, political prosecutions, the FBI under Patel, Corey Lewandowski’s conduct at DHS, the ballroom, the Kennedy Center, energy and mining deals, federal contracting, pressure on corporations, actions against the media, law firms, and universities, and taxpayer-funded advertising. (https://www.wsj.com/opinion/buckle-up-for-a-democratic-house-73b89e07)
My reaction: Gee, is that all? What about all the renamings? The Arch? The Rose Garden? The devastation of Hains Point, my favorite spot in Washington? The meme-coin dinner? The billions flowing to the president, his relatives, and his friends?
Strassel also reports that members have already drawn up long lists of people to subpoena, from the president himself (good luck with that) to family members and advisers like Stephen Miller and Susie Wiles. Corporate chiefs will be hauled in to do penance, and so will ordinary people: ICE officers, ballroom contractors, DOGE volunteers. If witnesses refuse, democrats plan to go around them by subpoenaing contractors, corporations, banks, colleges, and law firms, and to file lawsuits, pursue contempt, and issue criminal referrals as the hearings unfold. As she points out, the contempt citations and referrals will go nowhere in Trump’s Justice Department.
Then there’s the House’s actual business. The House controls the purse strings, and Strassel expects Democrats to use that power to attach conditions to spending, block specific expenditures, restrict military operations, and turn the federal spigot back on. They also have bills in the works to overhaul pardons, emergency powers, impoundment, inspector-general protections, foreign gifts, presidential disclosure rules, whistleblower laws, and prosecutions and settlements.
No presidential budget will pass, but then they rarely do. The president will govern by executive order alone. So get ready for a clown show (with apologies to clowns) even worse than the one we have now. The president brought this on himself, though frankly I doubt he cares. The real question is whether the gridlock will, ironically, produce less harmful government, with power split between a democratic House and a pseudo-republican president.
In another post, I’ll look at the Senate.
