Author: haroldblackphd

New car prices and ousting Maduro

New car prices – Ouch!

Word is that car buyers are finally suffering sticker shock and new car sales are falling. I remember when I had a Saab 900 convertible and the local Saab dealer said that he was doomed because the new models were all priced over $20,000. Now the average new car price is over $50,000. I presume that people are buying more used cars – but that will drive their prices up too. They are also probably looking to finance longer – but that will lead to higher defaults when the value of the car falls below the remaining payments. To really date me, my first new car was a 1968 Toyota Corolla that I bought new for $1,650. That is not a misprint. The same year I bought a 13” Sony Trinitron color TV for $350. Now a Toyota Corolla costs over $30,000 and for $350 you can get a 65” 4k smart TV. So the question is why did cars get so expensive while its components like electronics and computers got so cheap? 

One thing that I don’t quite understand is what happened to the lower priced cars. In 2019 there were 72 models priced under $30,000. In 2024 there were only 22. Was this because production costs have risen so that the lower priced cars are money losers? Was the only reason the lower priced cars were there in the first place was because of the fleet milage requirements? I also guess that the labor costs are a major factor. Another factor would have to be all the government mandated safety equipment. I once read that GM was a pension fund that made autos on the side. The bottom line is whether the automobile companies can profitably make cars under $30,000 and if the public would buy them. Yugo anyone?

Regardless, I have no plans to ever buy another car, new or used. I plan to drive the wheels off of mine. Only if a vehicle is totaled will I then buy another and it will be used. 

BTW, one cost factor that I have not seen talked about is the property tax some states charge on cars. Our neighbors to the north in Virginia pay a yearly tax of between $4.15 and $5.33 per $100 assessed value of a car. That’s an additional cost of ownership. So a $100,000 car would be assessed an additional $4,150 – $5,330 per year. Empirically I would bet that states with higher car property taxes would have relatively more used car sales than states without automobile property taxes.

We are not really going to war with Venezuela, are we?

Apparently Trump has issued an ultimatum to Maduro (my favorite type of cigar) to get out of the country or we will shut down their air space. I believe that doing so would universally be considered an act of war. There is a reason that Trump has deployed 10,000-15,000 troops, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier task group, the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, several destroyers and one attack submarine. Is that reason an actual attack on Venezuela? It is apparent that Trump is trying to force Maduro out. Now whether he will go is another question. But somehow I don’t think that the American public will support an invasion of Venezuela that imperils American troops. But if we shut down their airspace, their forces attempting to counter us might lead to a loss of American lives. Although it is highly unlikely, I hope the president goes to the congress to ask for authorization to use military force. All this reminds me of George H. W. Bush’s invasion of Panama to depose its de facto leader, Manual Noriega also accused of drug racketeering. 

Maduro is illegitimate. He has lost two elections but has refused to vacate his office. He has plundered the country, impoverished it and has driven 8 million Venezuelans into exile. Most have gone to Columbia and Peru. About 900,000 have come to the United States with 600,000 holding Temporary Protected Status. Homeland Security’s Kristi (Border Barbie) Noem of the false eyelashes and hair extensions has announced that the Venezuelans no longer meet the conditions for TPS and it is terminated as of November 7, 2025. However, the courts have extended that to October 2, 2026. The question is where will they go?

Trump initially said that the purpose of all of the forces in the eastern Caribbean was to interdict drug trafficking to the US leading to the destruction of a bunch of boats and killing 83 and counting. But actually more drugs are going from Venezuela to Europe than to the US. The drugs go to West African jihadists and then to Europe. The cocaine is produced in Columbia but shipped out of Venezuela financing criminal gangs, jihadists and al-Queda affiliated groups. One expert said all this is fueled by growing demand for drugs in Europe and “The quantities have gone up so much, the problem that traffickers have now is moving them.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Venezuela’s role as a drugs transit hub is a justification for the U.S.’s strikes on alleged drug boats. He said that instead of Europeans criticizing the U.S. action, “maybe they should be thanking us.”

If Maduro goes then so do the ease of drugs flowing from Columbia through Venezuela to feed US and European demand. The core the problem is the demand for drugs. Without the demand there would be little supply and little need for interdiction. 

Lastly, isn’t Trump’s pardon of Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández a bit contradictory? He was sentenced to 45 years in prison for receiving millions of dollars for protecting drug smugglers. Hernández was accused of being at the center of “one of the largest and most violent drug-trafficking conspiracies in the world.” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.) said “Why would we pardon this guy and then go after Maduro for running drugs into the United States, Lock up every drug runner! I don’t understand why he is being pardoned.” Well neither does anyone else. Presidential apologist White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said without elaborating that Hernández had been falsely prosecuted by the Biden administration. Trump said that “Many people that I greatly respect” had told him Hernández had been “treated very harshly and unfairly.” I thought Trump wanted drug lords to be “treated very harshly and unfairly”? If this had happened during the Biden administration the republicans would be calling for an investigation, asking if Hunter were somehow involved and if there were a kick back. The right wing press would be howling. But its Trump and there is silence. 

This stinks.

Trump pardons, Putin’s rope-a-dope and Hassett to the Fed?

Cuellar gets a pardon

Trump is sure in a pardoning mood. He just pardoned former Texas democrat congressman Henry Cuellar and his wife who were indicted on bribery charges. Trump said that the Biden “Justice” Department had targeted Cuellar for supporting Trump’s border policies saying “Sleepy Joe went after the Congressman, and even the Congressman’s wonderful wife, Imelda, simply for speaking the TRUTH.” Although Trump didn’t mention it, Cuellar narrowly won reelection despite being targeted by the democrats for being the only openly pro-life democrat in the congress. Cuellar was primaried because of his views and barely beat a progressive activist by only one point. He was opposed to the party’s support of federal protections for abortion saying it should be up to the states. Cuellar easily won in the general election that saw two other incumbent prolife democrats lose in their races: Dan Lipinski of Illinois and Collin Peterson of Minnesota.

Ukraine peace talks, Fool me once

Putin continues to rope-a-dope Trump and his people. He is still bellicose and rejecting changes to his Ukrainian “peace” proposal that he wrote for Trump. Seriously, a Trump official admitted that he had consulted with a Russian representative in the drafting of the plan. Putin is now rattling his sword at Europe saying that if attacked Russia is ready to fight a war. Big whoop. Does anyone take this clown seriously? He cannot subdue Ukraine after four years of trench warfare and now he can take on all of Europe? What is this guy smoking? Russia is a poor third world country that can only be a bully because it has nukes. Well NATO has nukes too.

What is disturbing in the Ukraineless negotiations between Trump’s people and the Russians is the bribe given by the Russians of an economic alliance with the United States. I had mentioned earlier on why was Russia the only country on the planet not hit with Trump’s tariffs. DDE said I was stupid because I should know that Russia did not produce anything of value. Well tell that to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Putin’s man at the table Kirill Dmitriev gave the Americans a list of commercial opportunities that would come to America if and only if Washington would abandon Ukraine. The offer includes rare-earth mining, energy projects for U.S. investors in Russia’s Arctic and joint missions to Mars between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and the Russian space industry. I, DDE and others have noted that the inclusion of the Chinese in the World Trade Organization did not make them less belligerent and less aggressive simply because they became trading partners. The Russians have played the Americans for fools since the end of the Cold War and are doing it again. Does anyone think – other than Witkoff – that a trade deal with Russia will stop their aggressive behavior and stop them from threatening and attacking their neighbors? At the core, it is unseemly to actually help the Russians make money that they will use to continue to undermine our interests. BTW, I feel the same about the Chinese.

Hassett to the Fed?

I have previously said that I thought the president would pick Kevin Hassett, his national economics advisor, to be nominated to the Fed in January and then maybe nominated to replace Jerome Powell as chairman. Maybe because if Powell resigns as governor Trump will have another Fed seat to fill and could nominate that person as chairman. I said that including current board members Waller and Bowman in the interviews was for show – just to get them to vote for lowering the Fed funds rate. He also included former governor Keven Warsh who the press seemed to like but I warned that he was too independent to satisfy Trump. But Hassett is the type of person that the president would put in place. He is loyal, currently in the Trump White House and is a capable Trump translator. However, unlike Trump appointee Miran, Hassett will resign from his current position and once confirmed by the Senate may exert some independence from the president. Recall that Trump was the one who nominated Powell and praised him during his first term only to turn on him later. What would be interesting is if Hassett starts to go against Trump’s wishes will the president lash out at Treasury secretary Bessent who has been conducting the interviews much like he turned on Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin who recommended Powell.

Bye bye Afghans, hello Ole Miss and goodbye Ole Miss?

Bye Bye Afghans

The Pakistanis have taken a page from the Trump playbook and have expelled over one million of the three million Afghans who live there with the intention of expelling all of them. The Pakistanis have had it with the Taliban who they contend are fomenting armed conflict on their shared border. The Taliban are accused of militarily supporting the Pakistani Taliban who are responsible for attacks within Pakistan on security forces and responsible for a recent suicide bombing.  Pakistan has launched air strikes on border areas. The Pakistani government has labeled all Afghans as a threat to national security and says that they are “criminals,” “drug peddlers,” and “terrorists.” Sound familiar? Would you believe that Iran has also expelled 1.5 million Afghans? Also in Pakistan 1.4 million Afghans holding Proof of Registration cards, whose legal status expired at the end of June are also being expelled. That sounds like the Pakistani equivalent of Temporary Protected Status doesn’t it? 

Go Rebels?

I just read an article saying that northern students are forsaking their universities and are coming south to universities like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia and colleges like Mercer and Elon. At Tennessee, there are many northerners especially in the Haslam College of Business. I had four students from Illinois in my financial markets class. Although all expressed no desire to live in the south, when I asked them why Tennessee, one responded that when she looked at northern schools she saw encampments and protests on the conflict in Gaza. When she looked at southern schools, she saw kids having fun at football games (Go Vols!). So fun, football, tailgating, parties, warm weather and a good education proved attractive. Also there are supposed to be “dazzling TikTok videos” influencing northerners to come south. All in all, applications from northern students to southern universities have increased by over 60 percent over the past decade. One sure sign of changing attitudes and changing times is that many of these northern students are black. I am just guessing but southern football programs are recruiting northern black athletes (Ole Miss’ quarterback is from Michigan) and perhaps their acceptance has encouraged black nonathletes to also go south. One of the best students in my class was a black woman from Illinois – and she was not an athlete either. I wonder what the effect of all the antisemitism on northern campuses on Jewish enrollment will be and will there be an increase in northern Jews coming south for their education as well. Isn’t it somewhat ironic that the supposedly intolerant, racist, sexist, xenophobic south is more welcoming than the enlightened north? 

Many years ago one of my coauthors was on the Ole Miss faculty and urged me to interview for the deanship of the business school. I declined. Ole Miss was embroiled in controversy surrounding all the confederate baggage, the rebel flag, Colonel Reb and all the rest. Having had to deal with that almost daily during my four years at Georgia, I declined choosing not to dredge up past unpleasantries. Several years later all that rebel stuff was gone – except for the name – and I was pleased that one of my doctoral students became their dean.

Go Rebels, Part 2

Speaking of Ole Miss, its coach Lane Kiffin is abandoning his team and leaving for LSU despite Ole Miss saying that they would match any monetary offer. BTW, his contract is $12 million for seven years which is still less than what Kirby Smart makes at Georgia (Go Dawgs!). Mind you, Ole Miss is likely to get a spot in the college playoffs and yet Kiffin will not be coaching them. In the NFL a team is not allowed to talk to a coach about a vacancy while that coach’s team is still playing. Obviously this is not the case in college where LSU was courting Kiffin during the season. 

Personally, Kiffin’s brief tenure at Tennessee poisoned my view of him. While at UT he constantly demeaned other programs in the conference and their coaches and got Tennessee slapped by the conference with a mild rebuke. I was glad when he jumped ship to Southern Cal which in turn fired him after a brief tenure. Yes he has been successful at Ole Miss which was so bad off that it would put up with his prickly attitude so long as he won. The same will be true with LSU which could care less for his obnoxiousness – provided he wins. Kiffin will coach Ole Miss no further. He even issued an ultimatum to those coaches he wanted to come with him to LSU that if they didn’t come with him right now, that they could not join him at LSU. Talk about throwing Ole Miss under the bus. Such scorched earth behavior should serve as a warning to LSU. Kiffin has obviously thrown the finger at Ole Miss even though they have put up with his peevish behavior and rehabilitated his reputation. If Kiffin wants to win a national championship, he is rejecting his Ole Miss program with its 11-1 record (they lost to my Dawgs) that has a chance this year to win it all. I guess he figured that if LSU could win national championships with Les Miles and Ed Orgeron, then he could win one there too. But bailing out on Ole Miss at this crucial time, threatening his assistant coaches if they don’t come with him and abandoning his players just simply stinks. But that is a familiar smell around Lane Kiffin. 

A friend sent me an ode to Kiffin on YouTube that somehow I cannot post. It is called “Can’t turn a hoe into a housewife.” I urge you to see it. It is well done and hilarious.

Does MAGA have legs?

Will MAGA survive the departure of Donald Trump as president? Will Trump become the voice of the republican party when he is no longer president? Will his protegees continue his policies and be elected president? All good questions. Right now it looks like the Trump support is fraying around the edges. First there was the fallout with Elon Musk. Then Marjorie Taylor Greene fell into disfavor. Another MAGA in congress, Colorado’s Lauren Boebert who also supported release of the Epstein files and was summoned to the White House and told to end her support for the release. She refused but was not humiliated like MTG. With the House republicans wanting to release the files, the president relented. Many republicans have criticized his pardon of former Honduran president Hernandez who was a convicted drug lord. Some say that this means that the president is losing his grip on the congressional republicans. Maybe and maybe not. But at least on these issues, he apparently has.

Over on the Senate side, the president constantly badgered majority leader John Thune to eliminate the filibuster. Thune refused. Even one of Trump’s most vigorous supporters Lindsey (Bomb them All) Graham resisted. There are openly anti-MAGA republicans in the senate, Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lisa Murkowsky of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, possibly Iowa’s Chuck Grassley and Utah’s John Curtis of Utah. The question is are there more but are simply quiet because they fear the wrath of Trump? Yet, the total lack of dignity and coarseness of this president must be embarrassing to even MAGA republicans in Congress.

The president successfully pushed the Texas legislature to gerrymander their congressional seats to include more republicans and to push out two of his fiercest opponents, Al (Full of Fire) Green and Jasmine Crockett. Yet the same effort in Indiana failed. As a result, the president has of course threatened to primary all the republicans who refused to go along with his wishes. Trump trumpeted “I will be strongly endorsing against any State Senator or House member from the Great State of Indiana that votes against the Republican Party, and our Nation, by not allowing for Redistricting for Congressional seats in the United States House of Representatives as every other State in our Nation is doing, Republican or Democrat.” Recall that the threat of a Trump supported primary opponent was the reason that MTG decided to resign from the congress. But the Indiana republicans have held firm even in the face of such threats. I wonder if they would have done differently a year ago?

I haven’t heard much support from either the House or the Senate republicans over Trump’s suggestion of a $2,000 tariff rebate to offset the coming end to the ACA subsidies. But I also have heard little criticism of Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes and those on the fringe of the MAGA movement who embrace the ugliness of the political discourse. The president actually defended Carlson and his sympathetic interview with Fuentes, an avowed antisemitic racist. However, the vice president is on record for attacking Fuentes who questioned his bona fides for having an Indian wife. Fuentes said if “we really expect that [Vance] who has an Indian wife and named their kid Vivek is going to support white identity”. Vance then called Fuentes a total loser. However Vance did say that he hopes his wife, who is Hindu, will convert to Christianity. “But if she doesn’t, then God says everybody has free will, and so that doesn’t cause a problem for me.” 

The president calls his opponents names that once were banned from the public eye. He even posted an AI-generated video of a fighter jet dumping feces on Americans who oppose him.  When Trump leaves, if his vice president is nominated to replace him, the coarseness is bound to continue. Vance has been an attack dog and has been every bit as uncouth as the president. While the president remarks about “firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve’s ass” the vice president called a critic a “dipshit.” (Sorry for the language). This president and his vice president demonstrate that decorum and dignity do not matter. Or do they?

When the six congressional democrats called for members of the military to disobey illegal orders the president went ballistic. He said that the democrats were engaged in “seditious behavior, punishable by death.” Although I think the message was stupid and the democrats especially Mark Kelly should know better, the president’s response was a bit over the top.

Then there is the report that Pete Hegseth allegedly ordered the murder of two survivors of one of the attacks on alleged drug boats off Venezuela. Could he really be that stupid? Both the House and the Senate’s Armed Services Committees have announced investigations. Since the killing might constitute murder, I wonder if this is what the democrats were referring to as to disobey “illegal” orders. There has been no declaration of war so I guess that this would not have the Navy prosecuted as a war crime. But the mere fact that both committees are chaired by republicans and referred to Hegseth as Secretary of Defense rather than of War and their promise to conduct a vigorous investigation is said by some to be in defiance of the president. But would the president actually defend Hegseth if the allegation were true? Nonetheless, observers said that the republicans are now challenging the president because they think that he is weak. So now, if found to be true, will Hegseth voluntarily resign and go back co-hosting a show on Fox or will he be impeached? Surely the president would not allow him to continue. Would he?

I don’t think that Vance will be elected president. I think that the only way he succeeds Trump is in the case of the president’s death. Then I don’t think that Vance has the wherewithal to hold onto power. First, the congressional republicans do not fear Vance and will not bend to his will and threats. Second, Trump’s cabinet won’t be Vance translators like they are for Trump defending the indefensible. Treasury secretary Bessent who is full of himself would likely steer a more independent path rather than cater to Vance’s wishes. Do you think that Vance would command the same loyalty from Pam (Blondie) Bondi? I bet that he would have to replace Trump’s chief public defender, Karoline Leavitt as soon as possible. Trump has surrounded himself with loyalists like Stephen Miller, Stephen Miran, Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth, Bill Pulte and IRS commissioner Frank Bisignano. Do you think that any of them would swear fealty to Vance? It pains me to say this about a fellow Ohio State Buckeye but at the core, Vance is simply unlikeable.

Does Trump threaten free speech?

I had an hours long conversation with one of my oldest and dearest friends – a woman who I consider my big sister. She is strong, brave and resilient. She was a major source of strength and inspiration to me as a young 17 year old freshman at the University of Georgia. From the very beginnings we sometimes joked on how differently we viewed the world and how differently we interpreted events. She marveled at my laissez faire market approach, while her’s involved government intervention – federal not state. I admitted that the federal government played a necessary role in forcing the confederate south to integrate but I never believed that many of the other positions taken by the government were of value and that they were likely harmful. This was not an original thought. It was one voiced often by my parents who thought that government subsidies provided disincentives that hindered development. My finding economics at Georgia only gave me the foundation that I needed to add substance to my parents’ belief.

In our conversation, my friend said that she had participated in her local “No Kings” rally. It was her first organized protest. She said that because of her age she borrowed a wheelchair in order to fully participate. She prefaced her remarks by saying that she knew that I probably disagreed with her – because we always disagree on such matters – but she went because for the first time in her life she felt that her freedom of speech was being threatened by this administration. 

She mentioned Trump’s attempts at mandating that universities hiring practices and curricula be changed to meet his demands. She noted Trump’s penchant for attacking and belittling reporters that he disagrees with. She pointed to the president threatening to revoke ABC’s license when a reporter asked him about the Epstein files. He told the reporter “It’s not the question I mind, it’s your attitude. I think you are a terrible reporter. It’s the way you ask. … You’re a terrible person and a terrible reporter.” “The license should be taken away from ABC because your news is so fake and so wrong.” And we have a great [Federal Communications Commission] chairman who should look at that. Because when you come in and you’re 97 percent negative to Trump and Trump wins the election by a landslide, that means obviously your news is not credible. And you’re not credible as a reporter.” 

Isn’t this threating free speech, my friend asked? My friend was somewhat taken aback when I agreed with her. I asked her did she feel that way during the Biden years and she said “of course not.” Well, I said, those on the right felt like you feel when Biden was in office. Biden’s “Justice” Department targeting of Trump’s allies, their raiding the homes and arresting of people who simply were praying in front of abortion clinics and the effort to collude with big tech social media platforms to censor free speech during the pandemic were only a few examples.

After Biden’s speech blasting Trump and his supporters as “an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our country” a poll found that 62% felt that Biden, himself, was dividing the country and endangering free speech. But of course 73% of the democrats polled agreed with Biden. Tulsi Gabbard posted “Our president should be uniting our country. Instead, Biden is dividing us by demonizing tens of millions of Americans who voted against him or oppose his policies, and working with Big Tech and weaponizing our DOJ/security apparatus to undermine our freedoms.” I had pointed out that in the speech Biden had guards in the background and an ominous setting that was disconcerting. I said that it was the most disturbing speech I had ever heard from a president. Didn’t Biden once say “It’s time to put Trump in a bull’s-eye”?

Interesting, my dear friend had not felt threatened or intimidated in the least by Biden’s actions. I said it was all in the eye of the beholder. Even more interesting was that when I was in DC over Thanksgiving, I was having a similar conversation with a Yellow Dog Democrat who claimed he was unaware of Biden’s war on the freedom of speech of Trump and his supporters. Apparently he saw such actions as justifiable. While those on the right felt their freedoms were impinged upon during the reign of Joe Biden, the liberals feel the same during Trump’s. The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) finds that 74% of Americans in their October poll responded that things are headed in the wrong direction for free speech. Only 26% who believe things are headed in the right direction. “From July of this year, Democrats who think things are heading in the right direction fell from 17% to 11%, Independents fell from 31% to 19%, and Republicans fell from 69% to 55%.”

Just like my friend’s opinions were the product of her partisan feelings the Democrats and Republicans swap roles as optimists and pessimists depending on who is in office. I told her not to worry. Yes Trump is conducting a payback campaign against those who prosecuted (persecuted?) him and his followers. But other presidents from Nixon to Obama had also conducted operations that could be viewed as attacks on free speech. There legions of folk out there publicly opposing everything that this president is doing. Has their freedom to speech been impaired?

The important thing to remember is that through it all, the courts still are upholding the First Amendment. Only when that ceases will free speech be truly threatened.

The National Guard shootings, TPS vetting and “remigration”

In the wake of the horrific shootings of the West Virginia national guardsmen in Washington by an Afghan refugee, the president has placed the blame on Joe Biden. The shooter was an Afghan national, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who came to the country under the Biden administration’s Operation Allies Welcome established following the U.S. military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. The program was to bring into the country those Afghans who had supported and aided the US in its 8 year conflict in Afghanistan and would have faced retribution by the Taliban. By March 2023 in a report to Congress by the Biden Administration noted 90,000 evacuees had been resettled to the United States under OAW and had been vetted. Several hundred were refused admission into the country after failing a screening and vetting process that involved DHS, the Department of Defense and the FBI.

The president claimed otherwise saying “He (Lakanwal) was flown in by the Biden administration in September 2021 on those infamous flights that everybody was talking about. Nobody knew who was coming in. Nobody knew anything about it. His status was extended under legislation signed by President Biden, a disastrous president, the worst in the history of our country.” CIA Director John Ratcliffe said that Lakanwal worked with the CIA during the War in Afghanistan. Ratcliffe said. “This individual — and so many others — should have never been allowed to come here. Our citizens and servicemembers deserve far better than to endure the ongoing fallout from the Biden Administration ’s catastrophic failures. God bless our brave troops.”

I’m confused Wasn’t the program intended to help those who had helped us like Lakannwal? Lakanwal’s had worked with the U.S. government but the president said that Lakanwal had “gone cuckoo” after arriving in the United States. But if Lakanwal had “gone cuckoo” after arriving doesn’t necessarily mean that the program was a failure. Does it?

Lakanwal had worked for the CIA. He and others like him were the reason for Operation Allies Welcome. The Biden Administration had stated that he and others like him were vetted, contrary to what Trump and his administration are saying. U.S. Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro (veteran of Fox’s The Five) called President Joe Biden’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan “disastrous” and called Operation Allies Welcome the program through which Lakanwal entered the United States, “absurd” saying “This is what happens in this country when people are let into this country who are not properly vetted.” 

Again, I am confused. The Biden administration reported to congress and claimed that screenings of Afghan evacuees were “biometric and biographic,” with agents ordered to enforce the vaccinations for polio, COVID-19 and measles, mumps and rubella. Screenings for child marriages, human trafficking and gender-based violence were emphasized along with any inclusion on no-fly lists and past flaggings by the U.S. military or allied military forces. The majority of those resettled were considered on a “case-by-case basis” by Customs and Border Protection. Again some were denied entry.

Yet Trump said “Hundreds of thousands of people poured into our Country totally unvetted and unchecked. We will fix it, but will never forget what Crooked Joe Biden and his Thugs did to our Country! We must now reexamine every single alien who has entered our country from Afghanistan under Biden, and we must take all necessary measures to ensure the removal of any alien from any country who does not belong here or add benefit to our country. If they can’t love our country, we don’t want them.”

So I guess the charge now is that they were not “properly vetted.” But they were not immediately released into the country and were questioned and investigated at 200 US facilities before being let into the country and that hundreds were denied admission. This is in direct contradiction to what is being said by Trump and his officials. Is anyone surprised that he is blaming Biden? Then there is the explosive breaking news that may well just be an internet rumor that the national guard shooter had been vetted again by the Trump Administration and then granted legal asylum in April 2025. I have yet to see an administration denial. All of the major news outlets have grabbed onto this story because If this is true then the blame shifts from the Biden Administration to Trump’s.

What is clear is that this incident has allowed the president to continue his policy to drastically reduce immigration and deport immigrants, even those who entered the country legally. Trump called to end immigration from the “third world.” He said “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. “Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won’t be here for long!”

After the president used the term “reverse migration,” Homeland Security posted “The stakes have never been higher, and the goal has never been more clear: Remigration now.” This is unfortunate, “remigration”is a term favored by Great Replacement theorists, white nationalist movements and those advocating the forced removal of ethnic, religious, and immigrant populations. The far right in Europe use the term meaning ethnic cleansing. Please tell me this was not a deliberate use of the word by this Administration.

Trump imposed a travel ban on immigrants from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow said that the department would reexamine every immigrant holding a Green Card from a “country of concern.” The president claims refugees are “the leading cause of social dysfunction in America,” linking them to “failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits.” He left out arthritis, heart congrestion and erectile dysfunction.

In particular, he singled out Somali migrants, declaring they are “completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota”and describing “Somalian gangs… roving the streets looking for ‘prey.’ Gangs of Somalians come from a country that doesn’t even have a government — no laws, no water, no military, no nothing — as their representatives in our country preach to us about our Constitution and how our country is no good.” He is obviously referring to Rep. Ilhan Omar. He has also called Minnesota Governor Tim Walz “seriously retarded.”

“Minnesota, under [Gov. Tim] Waltz, is a hub of fraudulent money laundering activity. I am, as President of the UnitedStates, hereby terminating, effective immediately, the Temporary Protected Status (TPS Program) for Somalis in Minnesota.” Walz said the news was “not surprising.” “It’s not surprising that the President has chosen to broadly target an entire community.This is what he does to change the subject.”

Sen. Amy Klobucher (D-MN) said Trump’s order “another late night threat” to go “after people in just one state w/ legal status.” “Maybe the President should spend his evenings working on bringing down costs instead of targeting Somalis who have been in our country for years” Minnesota’s other Sen. Tina Smith also said “He can’t think of anything else to do on a Friday night.” “That’s who he is, but it’s not who we are.”

Of the 90,000 Somalis in the country only 705 are on Temporary Protected Status. Most Somali Minnesotans were either born here or are naturalized citizens. Omar said “We do not blame the lawlessness of an individual on a whole community.” She also added that Trump does not have the authority to take away the Somalis citizenship and that they are “here to stay.” She also asserted that Trump was taking away TPS status only of the Somalis but of course that is not true. Homeland Security’s Kristi (Border Barbi) announced that as of 11:59 PM February 3, 2026 the 500,000 Haitians who have been granted TPS will lose that status and must leave. Noem also terminated the TPS designation for the 600,000 Venezuelans in the country and ordered them to leave as well. Also 120,000 Ukrainians will lose TPS status and must leave. Apparently the only safe group is the white Afrikaners of South Africa.

Lastly, the usual gaggle of liberal talking heads are blaming the shootings of the national guardsmen on the president. This is shameful but expected and I won’t even grace them or their comments here.

Happy Thanksgiving (2025)

Happy Thanksgiving. My very best to you and yours. I will take a short break from the blog this week to spend time with my family. I hope you do the same with yours.

The holidays are coming! The holidays are coming and with it comes the food of the season. When else do you see cranberry jello – or whatever that stuff is that wiggles out of a can? When else do you have dressing? Mother never stuffed a turkey but made cornbread dressing in a pan and baked it. It was just dressed up cornbread with chopped giblets, poultry seasoning and chicken broth mixed together. We always had ham for Thanksgiving and Christmas. I don’t remember it at any other time of the year. The turkey and ham were the only meats that she cooked that weren’t fried – although I used to joke that we had fried turkey. Who knew that would become a thing? And sweet potatoes! Baked in their skins and of course sweet potato casserole topped with marshmallows. We always had dinner rolls – the kind that have two halves that you pull apart.

We had sweet potato pie. When I first heard of pumpkin pie I thought it was a misprint. Mac and cheese was always served with the holiday meals. We had fried skillet corn – never creamed. Dad loved egg nog – non alcoholic since he didn’t drink. We thought it a weird drink, and I still do. He would sit in his favorite chair and watch football with a bowl of pecans, a glass of egg nog and a slice of fruit cake. Mother made her world famous scuppernong wine from her own garden – although she too did not drink. The wine was put in mason jars (named after someone named Mason) and distributed to all the neighbors and relatives. One thing that we did not have was green bean casserole, thank goodness, probably because we had never heard of it. Then there were potato salad and deviled eggs. Mother loved pork rinds which were too salty for my taste but had them on the side to eat with her collard greens (which when I was young I called them “Colored” greens). Mom always made Dad’s favorite cake, a yellow cake with chocolate icing with pecans strategically placed on top. The cake only appeared with our holiday fare and on his birthday (November 19). We ate in the dining room on those special days instead of in the kitchen on her best china and silverware that only appeared at Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners with holiday napkins too. 

But holiday fare was just not reserved for dinner. In the morning mother would have biscuits (which came from a can), grits and fried oysters (Dad’s favorite food). Until I went off to college I had thought that oysters were a breakfast food. When I finally saw it on a dinner menu I thought it was analogous to serving bacon for dinner. To his dying day, mother made Dad oysters for Thanksgiving and Christmas breakfasts.  When we were finally allowed to go eat in their restaurants Dad was overjoyed when he found oysters on dinner menus. He would always ask for them even if they were not on the menu. Mother would be embarrassed and admonish him saying “Eldred, they are not on the menu!” Dad would always smile and say “Well they might have some anyway, dear.” Sometimes he was right. We also had country ham from mother’s father’s hogs. I don’t think I ever was able to chew it and I remember it as being much too salty as well.

Mom grew up on a farm and never went hungry. Dad had seven brothers and sisters and grew up in the city of Americus, GA and remember being told to get a cane pole, go dig up some worms and don’t come home until you catch dinner. But both had Christmas trees, lights and presents. Mom said that often they would only get a fruit basket with nuts and candy canes. She said that the oranges were the special treat and it would take them a week to eat a candy cane only taking a lick or two each day. She said that if she got a doll, she knew that her mother had made it and loved it even more.

Dad said that his Christmas presents were much the same except they would always get at least one toy like a yo-yo or spinning top. Thanksgiving and Christmas were the only meals when he knew they would have meat. Maybe that is why he insisted on meat at every meal and was lavish with his gift giving to us. We would look through the Sears Roebuck catalog and pick out what we wanted. I don’t ever remember them saying no. But we never asked for much. We shopped from the catalog because my parents wouldn’t patronize the segregated department stores downtown. We would get a bicycle, or skates or cap guns with cowboy hats. But same was true for the other kids in our neighborhood and we would all meet in the middle of the street to compare gifts, to skate or ride our bikes. Sometimes we played touch football. I was so non athletic that I would never get picked and when I did they would just tell me to go long.

The holidays always started with the lighting of a gigantic Christmas tree atop Rich’s, the local department store in Atlanta. We would join the multitude of people downtown. It was always a festive event. The day after Thanksgiving all the Christmas decorations would go up. Dad loved Christmas. We always had a live tree, candles in all the windows and lights strewn everywhere around the yard. Once my brother joked that turning on the lights would probably cause a citywide brownout.

My parents and brother are now gone but the memories remain. I now try to spend at least one of the holidays with one of my children – who live far apart. Their houses are always festive with their families joining them. It is a time of joy but as joyous as it is, the memories of the old days will never fade and always come back unbidden with a tear or two glistening in my eyes. Every day I miss my parents but especially during the holidays.

The Fed’s December Open Market Committee meeting

This next Open Market Committee meeting will be one of the most interesting is recent times. It will be a test to see which side prevails, the one most concerned with inflation or the one most concerned with unemployment. Although I am one who thinks that the Fed should jettison its dual mandate and concentrate only on inflation, I realize that others disagree. Nonetheless, a reduction in the Fed funds rate will not have a direct impact on employment. In fact it may not have even an indirect impact. In these days, it appears that there is more displacement due to technological change than there is due to slack demand. So lowering interest rates will have little effect on unemployment but rather will add to the inflationary pressures.

Chairman Powell indicated at the annual Jackson Hole conference that there were going to be three rate decreases this year. There have been two. Will there be three? New York Fed president Williams has indicated as much. In a speech given in Chile (these central bankers love their junkets), Williams said that interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market. “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive…Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral.” Williams, who has a permanent seat on the FOMC and is considered an ally of Chairman Powell, is not likely to make such a statement unless endorsed by the chairman.

However, other Fed presidents appear not to be on board. Kansas City president Schmid, who dissented at the last cut has not changed his view. Boston Fed president Susan Collins thinks that the current rate is about in the right place. So does Dallas president Lorie Logan who favors no change too. Logan, who is a protegee of New York’s Williams seems to disagree with him and said “In the absence of clear evidence that justifies further easing, holding rates steady for a time would allow the FOMC to better assess the degree of restriction from current policy.”

There is something called the CME FedWatch Barometer that gives odds of a rate cut. It is obviously confused. After the Jackson Hole meeting it gave odds of 92% for a rate cut. Then the odds fell to 32% after the last meeting of the Open Market Committee. Now with Williams speech the odds are back up to 73%. I think it may be closer to 50-50.

Some say that all this indicates that the members of the committee are sharply divided as to what to do. Those divisions were shown in the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting with the two dissents. Three dissents are extremely rate and a vote with more would indicate that Powell has lost control of the committee. It will be interesting to see how markets would react. Traditionally, the reserve bank presidents who are more insulated from the pressures of Washington are more conservative in their policy decisions than are the governors.

We all know that the president wants lower rates. He has badgered Powell to lower the Fed funds rate to a rate as low as one percent. His surrogate at the Fed, Stephen Miran will press for a 50 basis point cut but will fail. What is interesting is that Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson are expert labor economists and have a special interest in unemployment issues. Their inclination would be to vote for a decrease in the rate – which would be interesting in the case of Cook who Trump is trying to fire. It would also be particularly interesting if Powell votes for a cut given all the vitriol hurled at him by the president who recently said, and I quote, “I’ll be honest, I’d love to fire his ass.”

Trump, obviously, doesn’t intimidate Powell. It would be human for Powell to push for a rise in the rate just to strike back at the president. However, that has not happened. Rather his comments show restraint and dignity. I presume that he will continue to do what he thinks is best for the country and seek to persuade the other members of the committee to do so as well. In the end, I think we will see nine OMC members inclined to cut (Powell, Williams,Miran, Waller, Barr, Jefferson, Cook, Bowman and Goolsbee), and three against (Collins, Musalem and Schmid).

MTG quits, Mechanics wanted, Putin’s (?) Ukraine surrender proposal

Marjorie Taylor Greene the author of some of the weirdest comments of anyone in Washington, finally started to make some sense and is leaving the congress because Trump threatened to primary her. It was probably due to her pushing for the release of the Epstein files (raise your hands if you are sick and tired of hearing that name). Trump had said that MTG had aligned herself with Thomas Massie, the republican that Trump hates the most, in calling for release of the files. But Trump was probably upset with her when after he said about Pelosi retiring, that Pelosi was evil and corrupt and that her retiring was a great thing for America, MTG said “I served under her speakership in my first term of Congress, and I’m very impressed at her ability to get things done. I wish we could get things done for our party, like Nancy Pelosi was able to deliver for her party.” She also said “The cost of health care is killing people. That should be the top issue. Cost of living, electrical bills haven’t gone down, they’ve gone up. They’re dramatically higher, cost of food has gone up.” Did Trump get upset by these comments and take them as being critical of his management of the economy? 

Trump, ever the statesman tweeted “because of PLUMMETING Poll Numbers, and not wanting to face a Primary Challenger with a strong Trump Endorsement (where she would have no chance of winning!), has decided to call it ‘quits.’” Of course, that is not true. MTG would have won re-election easily in a district where a ham sandwich with R by its name would garner 65 percent of the vote.

But Trump was calling her “wacky” and Marjorie “Traitor” Greene. She then responded “But even through this, I still support the Trump administration and want to see it succeed for the American people.”

Thomas Massie said “I’m very sad for our country but so happy for my friend Marjorie. I’ll miss her tremendously.”

Drop out of Harvard to be a mechanic?

With one of the topics of the day being the value of a college education, Ford is looking for a few good mechanics at $120,000 a year. That’s right. Ford’s CEO Jim Farley says that 5,000 mechanics jobs are unfilled despite paying $120,000 a year. He says “We are in trouble in our country. We are not talking about this enough. We have over a million openings in critical jobs, emergency services, trucking, factory workers, plumbers, electricians and tradesmen.” Farley, of course is right. We do have a severe deficit of skilled workers. Remember the raid on the Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia? Only 114,000 Americans in their 20s completed vocational programs during the first 10 months of last year, compared to 1.24 million who graduated from four-year colleges and 405,000 who received advanced degrees. There would be nothing wrong with this if those who graduated from college actually learned something rather than the mush that is dished out with a grade of “A” for attendance.

Of course the president wants to shut down immigration that includes H1-B workers. Yes I know there have been abuses in the system but if we cannot grow our own skilled workers and we cannot import them, what are we to do? This is from the Wall Street Journal “The National Federation of Independent Business reported this month that one third of small business owners reported jobs they couldn’t fill, and 49% reported few or no qualified applicants for positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-seven percent cited labor quality as their most important problem.” Does JD Vance know how to repair an F-250?

Trump’s Ukraine (surrender) proposal

Correct me if I misinterpreted the president’s surrender (er, peace) proposal for Ukraine. It says that Ukraine should cede land to Russia, some of which is not even occupied by the Russians, reduce the size of its army, never join NATO and recognize Russian control of Crimea. Trump is saying that accept this or else we will stop supporting Ukraine militarily. Did Trump’s buddy Vladimir Putin write this proposal? Sure sounds like it. If Ukraine capitulates, then expect Putin to ramp up his war because you can bet that Trump is not going to send the US military to fight Russia in the Ukraine. Trump insists that this is Europe’s war – and it is. Maybe he is hopeful that Ukraine will reject this outrageous offer so he can wash his hands of the whole matter and let the Europeans deal with it. The underlying question is that if Russia decides to attack NATO will Trump honor this country’s commitment to defend it?

For me what is equally outrageous is the offer to rescue Russia financially. The document reads “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy and return to make the G7 again the G8 group of nations.” Also the U.S. will enter some “long-term economic cooperation agreement” with Russia. Yep. Putin had to have written this “agreement”. Naturally, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to put some lipstick on this pig by saying “This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation, after four years of a devastating war, to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give.” Win-win? 

Is “affordable” housing affordable?

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing as housing where the occupant is paying 30% or less of the gross income on total housing, including utilities, insurance, maintenance and property taxes so that other basic expenses like food, healthcare, transportation and education can be covered. Low affordability is considered 60%. This definition on its surface holds regardless of the value of the home. That is, a million dollar home is “affordable” if its occupants are paying 30 percent or less of their gross income on total housing expenses. 

I think one of the main problems in the discussion of “affordable housing” is the mixing of rentals with single family homes. The market is bifurcated with many renters preferring not to purchase a home as well as many unable to purchase a single family dwelling. For example, since illegals are more likely to rent than to purchase, their influx into an area should mainly affect only rental prices and not the “affordability” of single family homes.

“Affordable housing” is being used today to include both first time home buyers and lower income households who typically rent. Homes may be “unaffordable” because the existing housing stock does not match the income, tastes and preferences of the renters or home buyers. Consider that there are available homes and apartments but they are either too expensive and that less expensive stock is located in “less desirable” locations. The mismatch between where homes sit empty and where demand is growing helps explain why the market remains tight despite so many vacant properties.

For home buyers some homes that are desirable are out of reach because of financing costs. A $400,000 home with 20 percent down payment and a 3.5 percent interest rate, which was as recently as 2021, has a monthly payment (principal and interest) of around $1,440. At a rate today of around 6.5 percent, that same home would be $2,020 per month, or around 40 percent higher. Third, this does not include insurance, maintenance and property taxes which in some instances is a contributor to delinquency and foreclosure. 

There are currently around 16 million vacant homes so some would argue that there is not a shortage of homes. However, about a third of these homes are seasonal or recreational properties in destinations like Florida and Arizona. The question though is where there is a lack of “affordable” housing, given demand then why isn’t that housing being built?

Given the stock of existing housing what makes housing unaffordable? There are financing costs, the ability to pay insurance, property taxes and maintenance, and a mismatch between the location of the home and the desirability to live there. The question, therefore arises as to why cannot the stock be increased where households want to reside? There impediments such as regulations, building costs, the cost of labor and limitations on land use. 

I have seen advocates talk of “more people in need of a home than there are homes available” which is a totally meaningless statement. Land use and restrictions or limits on property density could prevent the construction of an apartment building, the construction of single-family houses or the construction of modular homes, “tiny” houses or even trailer parks. Other restrictions on apartment construction such as a minimum number of parking spaces per unit or the number of elevators can add thousands of dollars per unit to the total cost of the project. Overall about 24% of the cost of a single-family home is due to regulations at all three levels of local, state and federal government.

Also consider the case of New York City where the number of rent-stabilized apartment vacancies are over 61,000. Rent-stabilized apartments represent nearly half of all rental housing in the city and are among the most

“affordable” places to live in New York where the average rent is over $4,000. Landlords say that the current price restrictions on stabilized housing robs them of the capital needed to make necessary repairs in older housing stock, hence the vacancies. There is currently a lawsuit against the city by landlords on this issue. Mamdani says that he wants to build 200,000 “affordable” housing units for households earning less than $70,000 a year at the cost of $100 billion. That is $500,000 per unit. Typically, those units would rent for $5,000 per month. Mamdani has not said what would be the rent on these units. However, the rents would be rent-controlled and frozen. That should eliminate private developers. But thirty percent of $70,000 would set the rent at $1,750 for the lucky ones who would get such a unit. That rules out private developers. How would the city bear the loss? And where would the units be located? Details. Details.

The Trump administration is supposedly looking into ways to make housing more affordable. I can guarantee that whatever they come up with will either not help or will make the matters worse. Unfortunately, they, like the socialists love to freeze prices, but the only way to make things more affordable lie in the factors determining housing prices via supply and housing demand. What policies are there to reduce house prices, rental prices and financing costs?

Since reducing the cost of financing a mortgage would make homes more affordable then isn’t the Fed to blame as the president says? No. Mortgage rates are more tied to the 10 year Treasury that the Fed funds rate. The primary cause of the higher rates is the government itself by continuing to borrow in financial markets to finance its ever growing debt. In economics we call this crowding out” where when the government enters the financial market to borrow to fund spending, interest rates rise due to the government demand. That increase in interest rates makes private investment more expensive and reduces the investments in the private sector. So a decrease in the rate of government spending would have the result of reducing mortgage rates and making home financing more affordable. So Mr President, don’t blame Jerome Powell, blame yourself and Scott Bessent.