Random Thoughts #79

Random Thoughts #79

Nukes for Taiwan?

I’ve grown weary of China’s endless posturing toward Taiwan. I’ve argued before that this is largely a rope-a-dope — China would be strategically foolish to attempt an invasion. Their real objective, I suspect, is the reunification with Manchuria. But here’s a thought: why not end the Taiwan drama once and for all by simply giving Taiwan a nuclear weapon? A credible nuclear deterrent would silence Beijing’s bluster overnight. Short of that, the U.S. could station nuclear weapons on Taiwanese soil under American control — a bold but defensible move that sends an unmistakable signal.

Loyalty Over Competence — Once Again

Trump appointed his stooge Bill Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, replacing Tulsi Gabbard. Pulte will add that title to his other two. Currently he is director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and also chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Pulte’s sole qualification as DNI director appears to be unwavering loyalty to Trump. Even reliably Republican voices pushed back: deposed Texas senator John Cornyn flatly stated he saw “no evidence of any qualification for the job,” and Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned, “We don’t need a weaponized DNI.” Others worry Pulte will be used to target political enemies — and not without reason. Don’t you think Pulte has enough on his plate already? But Pulte is merely the latest in a parade of Trump loyalists shoehorned into roles they aren’t qualified for. When you demand fealty above all else, the talent pool shrinks fast — and you end up just stacking new titles onto the same old cronies.

Because it’s an acting appointment, Pulte skips Senate confirmation — where he would almost certainly fail. His selection is also a pointed insult to Treasury Secretary Bessent, who reportedly once threatened to punch Pulte “in the f—ing face.” But there’s a deeper signal here: Trump may simply view the Office of the Director of National Intelligence as useless, another layer of government he has little use for. 

Trump’s Endorsement Streak Hits a Speed Bump

Trump’s otherwise reliable endorsement record took a hit when his pick for Iowa governor — Rep. Randy Feenstra — was defeated in the primary by businessman and farmer Zach Lahn. Lahn ran with the backing of Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action and had known Kirk since he was seventeen. Apparently, in Iowa friendship with Kirk trumps Trump.

The journal Nature Takes Aim at Academic Fraud

The journal Nature is finally doing something meaningful about the academic fraud that has long plagued its pages. It will now accept “registered reports” — proposals in which researchers submit their hypothesis, methods, and planned analyses before running any experiments. If accepted, Nature commits to publishing the paper regardless of whether the findings reach statistical significance, provided the protocol was followed and the results interpreted reasonably. Pre-registered protocols are stored in a public repository, preventing researchers from quietly bending or cherry-picking results after the fact. Crucially, this also opens the door to publishing negative or inconclusive findings — results that are systematically absent from the scientific literature today.

I’ve had papers rejected precisely because the results were “negative.” Think of the climate research that never saw the light of day for the same reason. Kudos to Nature for this overdue reform.

Heat Deaths, Old Age, and the WHO’s silly recommendation

A recent Wall Street Journal piece by Bjørn Lomborg — “Global Warming or Just Getting Old?” — takes aim at a WHO committee’s push to designate climate change a global health emergency. Their evidence: heat-related deaths in Europe have climbed to 63,000 per year, up 82% since 1990. Lomborg points out the obvious — Europe’s population has aged significantly over that period, and aging alone accounts for virtually all of that increase.

Two things Lomborg didn’t mention are worth adding. First, a rise in European deaths hardly constitutes a “global” emergency. Second — and most glaringly — only about 20 percent of European homes and buildings have air conditioning. The most direct remedy sits right there but recommending it is apparently off the table because of those pesky greenhouse emissions. I guess the WHO feels it is better to have old folk dying of heat stroke – right?

Americans Are Leaving — Would You?

Americans are expatriating at record rates — nearly 200,000 left last year alone. Is it a Trump-driven flight, à la Ellen DeGeneres? For some, perhaps. But most expats cite the cost of living. Retirees are stretching their pensions further abroad. Remote workers have discovered, as one old girlfriend of mine put it, “I can write code anywhere” — she chose Turks and Caicos for the diving and sailing. Hard to argue with that.

Germany baffles me, though — more Americans relocated there last year than Germans came here. Why trade sunshine for a contracting economy and a cold winter? Why move to a collapsing country that is cold? Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have seen the numbers of Americans doubling over the past 10 years and growing by 36 percent since COVID. The dollar may be falling making living abroad more expensive, still a middle income American salary makes you rich in most other parts of the world. So the question is that if you expatriated, where would you go? I am partial to Grand Cayman but ultimately I would have to leave having claustrophobia living on an island. Maybe Mexico? What about you?