Random #91
Happy Election Day America
Drama in Michigan and election news from around the world
Drama in Michigan
Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Democratic primary for the Senate, has endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. Maybe we saw it coming, as Stevens had only lukewarmly endorsed El-Sayed, and in a backhanded way at that. In the campaign, El-Sayed had linked all of Michigan’s domestic ills to US aid to Israel. Stevens called it antisemitic. El-Sayed accused Stevens of “relitigating a primary that ended three months ago” and ended up telling her to stay away from a “unity” rally. BTW, how can El-Sayed have a “unity” rally without Stevens? Well, Stevens responded: “Our Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul, said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away, and he’s right. And that’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today.” I am certain that the Michigan democrat leadership, who probably agree with her, will declare her persona non grata and try to force her out of the party. All I can say is that it is refreshing to find a politician who cares more about her state and the country than about her own political future. You go, girl!
Of course, national democrats, who care more about their own power than about the country, continued to show support for El-Sayed. Senate Minority Leader Chuck (where’s Chuck?) Schumer said, “Senate Democrats are united in our support for Abdul El-Sayed, because we know he will fight for the economic interests of working families in Michigan, unlike Mike Rogers, who is a tool of Donald Trump and billionaire donors.” Which, of course, is different from the democrats, who are tools of their own billionaire donors.
Now around the world
Serbia
Maybe the French students are looking with envy at what just happened in Serbia, where a student-led coalition just toppled the government. I am reminded of the dog chasing the car — what would the dog do if it caught it? The Serbian student group called Student List swept the polls with over 50% of the vote. Long-serving President Aleksandar Vučić conceded the historic defeat for his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and will step down. But to whom? Student List is officially leaderless.
The Guardian reports: “This political shift dismantles state capture and centralised control in the largest economy of the Western Balkans. Now that the Student List will occupy the majority of seats in parliament, it will likely be able to rapidly form a government and try to combat the endemic corruption within Serbian state institutions, which drove so many voters to the polls. Geopolitically, the victory could be read as a modest shift away from pro-Kremlin posturing toward European integration, as over 75% of the Student List’s supporters favour aligning with the European Union.”
After 14 years in power, Vučić was defeated at the polls by a movement with “no single leader” and “no charismatic figure,” and with no clear name designated to be elected prime minister. Student List won the elections “purely on the strength of their promise to turn the page” on Vučić, rather than on a coherent platform. In other words, you can actually defeat someone with no one. In the elections, Student List fielded 250 candidates — ironically, none of them students.
Israel
In the Israeli elections, Netanyahu did not win, but he wasn’t defeated either. His bloc won 53 seats, while the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48. Since neither won a majority, Israel’s Arab-led parties, which won a historic 19 seats, may play a decisive role in forming a new government. “May” because neither of the other two blocs are actually embracing the Arabs. It will be interesting to see which bloc will seek out the Arab parties and whether such a coalition can hold together, regardless of who ultimately puts together a government. For Israel’s Arab citizens, the election provided an opportunity to express their frustration with worsening living conditions, increased racism, and the situations in Gaza and the West Bank.
Any coalition will prove challenging. During the campaign, opposition figures repeatedly insisted that they would not govern with the Arab parties. But now that the results are in Eisenkot has said that any potential coalition with Arab parties would be that they have to recognize that Israel is a Jewish state, accept conscription, and denounce Hamas as a terrorist organization. Islamist Ra’am with its eight seats has indicated that it might join with Eisenkot but never with Netanyahu. However, Joint List with its eleven seats says it has no intention of joining such a government.
But universally, the Arabs want a change at the top. Netanyahu and his allies used racist portrayals to claim that Israeli Arabs supported the October 7 attacks. Does this mean that some will try to form a Zionist-only government, excluding the Arab parties? Netanyahu accused them of attempting to sabotage the state, while he also accused unnamed foreign agents (Qatar) of “stealing” the election. Portraying Israeli Arabs, who are citizens of Israel, as secret agents seeking to destroy their own country certainly isn’t helpful in trying to cobble together a government.
I guess Netanyahu will head a caretaker government, which will leave him in power as the country devolves into an endless stream of elections with similar results.
Venezuela
Likely causing Trump some heartburn is the return of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado to the country. While Trump supports the old Maduro regime he put into place, Machado is back demanding democratic reforms. Trump wants to maintain the status quo while he seeks the country’s oil. But Machado injects grassroots momentum into demands for a clear, binding electoral calendar, judicial reforms, and the release of political prisoners. Will her supporters take to the streets to demand the ouster of Delcy Rodríguez and her allies — who were once all Maduro’s allies? Machado drew massive crowds, as tens of thousands of supporters gathered along the highway to celebrate her return. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has laid out the details of the political transition back to democracy, including a new electoral commission, reform of the Supreme Court, and, eventually, presidential elections. My bet is that Machado (actually, María Corina) would prefer presidential elections to be first on that list rather than last. What will Trump do? Her presence will cause tensions to rise and could lead to disruptive protests and anti-government demonstrations. Ultimately, it might even endanger Trump’s ambitions toward Venezuelan oil.
Brazil
In somewhat of an upset, the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), pulled out a victory against Trump favorite Flávio Bolsonaro, who immediately fled the country for Miami, fearing imprisonment (like his father). Trump, of course, called the election rigged, while Bolsonaro declared himself the victor and, I guess, will rule from Miami rather than Brasília.
