Author: haroldblackphd

More on the BLS debacle

(Or the perils of shooting off at the mouth before considering the facts)

The President’s pick of A. J. Antoni to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics to jimmy the data to make him always look good is running into criticisms from economists at conservative organizations. An economist at the American Enterprise Institute said Antoni’s “work at Heritage has frequently included elementary errors or nonsensical choices that all bias his findings in the same partisan direction.” Oops. Another economist, this one at the American Institute for Economic Research said I’ve been on several programs with him at this point and have been impressed by two things: his inability to understand basic economics and the speed with which he’s gone MAGA.” Double oops. An economist at the Manhattan Institute said in part “Mr. Antoni is unqualified for the labor market data collection and analysis role he was nominated to.” Another Manhattan Institute economist said that Antoni “appeared not to know that the BLS’ measure of import prices did not account for the impact of tariffs.” You can read the article in Axios at https://www.axios.com/2025/08/12/trump-bls-ej-antoni-economists

There were the expected criticisms from the left but those from the right are particularly damning. Who is going to believe anything now coming out of the BLS? Maybe they should just eliminate the “L”.

Now Antoni whose PhD is not from Harvard but is from Northern Illinois University is probably a fine economist. But the question is whether he is a fine statistician with special knowledge of those series reported by the BLS. Apparently not. Let’s hope he is a fast learner. It will be interesting to see how he is treated by both republicans (who are scared of Trump) and by democrats (who all hate Trump) at his senate confirmation hearings. His predecessor Dr McEntarfer was confirmed with only nine “no” votes. If Collins, Murkowski, Tillis, McConnell, Paul and Curtis vote “no” then Antoni will not be confirmed – because of course every democrat will vote against him.

The job numbers are lousy and getting worse. The monthly revisions have lowered the job numbers dramatically each month. May’s went from 144,000 to 19,000. June’s went from 147,000 to 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000. Trump fired the BLS director for reporting the July jobs number at 73,000. Note that he fired her for the numbers reported looking so dismal. Wait until he sees the revision. What is the real number? We will have another Trump hissy fit? Also recall that most all of the growth has been in state and local government jobs. Note: My cousin who was fired as a probationary employee at Oak Ridge landed a job with a county government in Georgia. He is in the July statistics. I said at the time of the BLS firing that Trump did a really dumb thing. From the looks of the critiques of Antoni, that dumb thing may have just gotten dumber.

I asked an attorney friend if an illegal were entitled to legal representation and subject to due process. He referred me to his legal assistant, Grok AI who says “A person in the U.S. illegally and detained for deportation is entitled to due process under the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments, which ensure fair treatment and protection against arbitrary government action.” Well I guess that settles that! Thanks Mike. BTW, I thought Grok was a retired NFL tight end.

Random thoughts #66

I just finished the last of my venison. My dog got her last bit of it as well. I give her, like I did all my others, raw venison mixed with her kibble. The last time I ran out I substituted very lean ground beef and she wouldn’t eat it. I  had not bought beef in a couple of years and when I saw the grocery prices, I was stunned. $6.50 a pound! There was no avian flu in cattle so why are the prices this high? Is the US cattle herd shrinking. Shouldn’t we import more beef from Canada and Mexico and waive the tariffs? Surely this qualifies as a national emergency.

I was watching a Toronto Blue Jays versus Chicago Cubs game from Toronto and one of the advertisements said “Pizza Nova, 100% Canadian Owned and Operated.” Think that’s a result of Trump’s war on Canada?

I wonder what was the reception by the Canadian fans to the playing of the US National Anthem? I know that the anthem was booed earlier at hockey matches.

I know Canadians are boycotting American products so I was wondering what consumer products from Canada are imported into America besides Canadian bacon and Canada Dry? And what’s with Canadian “bacon” anyway?

I wish we would put a 1,000% tariff on Canadian geese.

Trump wants Intel to fire its CEO who he thinks is too cozy with China. Does Trump wants to be CEO of Intel too?

He also wants Goldman to fire its chief economist because he doesn’t like what the economist has said about Trump’s (illegal) tariffs. Trump as chief economist? 

Trump’s family’s crypto empire has generated $1.5 billion since the election. Just imagine what the real number is if indeed Don Jr is getting kickbacks from the tariff shakedowns.

Trump has now got his guy to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, E. J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation who apparently doesn’t know very much about labor statistics. I bet you could sell tickets to his senate confirmation.

Trump held a press conference with charts produced by Stephen Moore (who should know better) showing how the BLS statistics made him look bad (or is it worse?). Moore’s statistics were immediately critically critiqued by other statisticians. Who to believe? Again it is a lesson in how to lie with statistics. I guarantee you that if Trump wanted Moore to produce charts showing just the opposite then he could have done that too. I have respect for Moore but that respect is wavering.

Are you going to believe the next set of numbers produced by Antoni’s BLS? Want to bet that they make Trump look good? What Antoni needs to do is to firm up the survey responses. Make those surveyed respond or get some new respondents. Hey, just make Trump threaten those who are not responding. He’s good at that.

Trump has taken over DC. Is he now Mayor Trump too?  If crime is the issue I wish he could invent an excuse to take over the policing in Chicago. 

Trump after waging war on the Kennedy Center – didn’t he anoint himself chairman (Chairman Trump) – has decided to take on the Smithsonian. Mind you, the African American museum although wonderful in many ways was hopelessly biased in others. When I visited there some years ago it did not even mention Clarence Thomas. It omitted all the conservative black thinkers throughout our history. It had a decidedly progressive bent and did not tell all our history. I agree that the Smithsonian’s museums present a biased view of our history from the left. It needs balancing but Trump’s ordering the Smithsonian to submit its exhibits for his approval is a bit much. (Chief curator Trump?). Why doesn’t Trump just appoint a panel to view the proposed exhibits? Victor Davis Hanson comes to mind. Does the First Amendment apply to government sponsored enterprises?

Somewhat under the radar is what’s happening at the US Commission on Civil Rights (I was a member of the Tennessee Commission on Civil Rights). The US Commission is a bipartisan board with eight members, four appointed by the president, two by the President Pro Tempore of the Senate and two by the Speaker of the House of Representatives. No more than four Commissioners can be of the same political party. With the concurrence of a majority of the commission’s members, the President designates a chair and a Vice Chair. The staff director is also appointed by the President with the concurrence of a majority of the Commissioners. Well Trump has designated Commissioner Peter Kirsanow (term ends in December) to be the new chairman and Commissioner Stephen Gilchrist (term ends in November) from South Carolina to be the vice chair. They are already on the commission and both are black republicans. Trump has also designated Carissa Mulder to be the new staff director of the commission. But none of this has taken place because the commission itself must approve Mulder, Kirsanow and Gilchrist and the current chairman Rochelle Garza has refused to have a meeting where the approvals would have taken place. Will she schedule a meeting in September and if not what can Trump do about it? Her term as a commissioner doesn’t end until 2028. Stay tuned.

Random thoughts and wild speculations

Mortgage rates fell last week. I thought the Fed left rates unchanged? What’s up with that? A 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.58%, it’s lowest level since October 2024. A 15-year fixed is at 5.83%. So if the Fed didn’t lower rates, then how can this miracle occur? Its because the mortgage rates are more influenced by long term Treasurys than by the short term Fed funds rate and the poor jobs numbers were met will falling bond yields. Hence, lower mortgage rates. ATTENTION: The Fed doesn’t “control” interest rates. Markets do. If those mortgage rates look attractive to you then you had better move fast. The inflation numbers are starting to come in and they show prices going up. Fears of inflation will cause bond yields to go up. So refinance now!

Two republican senators, Grassley of Iowa and Curtis of Utah have been captured by the wind industry. Do you mean that wind bags are in cahoots with windmills? So it seems. Both Grassley and Curtis have put a hold on some of Trump’s nominees because they want to protect tax credits for wind projects that have been authorized but not funded. Apparently these sweetheart projects are in Iowa and Utah. Grassley and Curtis obviously have no shame.

The Trump’s administration rollback of the fleet milage standards with a penalty of zero has ended the fuel credit gravy train subsidizing EV manufacturers. Just in case you had forgotten, the EV companies get millions of dollars from fuel credits paid by the automobile companies.  Auto manufacturers are required to produce a certain number of so-called zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). These carmakers are required to have a certain amount of regulatory credits each year. If they can’t meet the target, they have to buy them from companies that have excess credits. Since Tesla, Rivian and Lucid only make electric vehicles, they always have excess regulatory credits and sell them to the other car makers. Because Trump ended the EV penalty, Rivian says it will cost them $100 million in lost “revenue”. Lucid has only said that it will suffer a significant lost. Tesla has said that it expects to “lose” about $1.2 billion from the loss of “revenue” from selling the credits to other car companies. Mind you, the car companies have been losing billions on making EVs and that loss has been compounded by their not being able to sell enough vehicles to get out of having to pay Elon Musk, et. al. even more money. Even at that Rivian reports losing $39,000 per vehicle which is significantly down from losing over $100,000 per vehicle two years ago. Lucid loses $300,000 per vehicle. Rivian now expects an overall loss of $2.5 billion for the year.

Reports are that on average 22 percent of the tariffs have been passed on to consumers. Projections are that number will soon be 67 percent. Some of this has caused the producer price index to rise in the past month. The annual rate is 3.3 percent and rising. More troubling is that a good deal of the rise is in services and not in goods. This is a bad sign. It also means that the Fed, which was widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, may now cut 25 basis points if at all. See Trump go even more out of his mind – if that is possible. Also troubling is that prices are going up faster than wages meaning a decline in real wage growth. A lot of people voted for Trump because of Biden’s inflation and now if his policies continue the republicans will pay the price for Trump’s tariffs at the midterms.

Since Trump is getting rid of the temporary protected status, 259,000 Ukrainians are in danger of being deported. I previously mention the same was true for the Afghans who fled here under that program. Are we sending these people back? I know some progressives who would say “well he is sending the Haitians back, so why not some white or semi-white folk too?”

By the way, when did white cease being a color? Saying “people of color” excludes white people. At the Westminster Dog show the categories of cocker spaniels are black, black and tan, parti-color (two or more colors one of which must be white) and ASCOB (any color other than black). Maybe we ought to do the same and have a ASCOW category.

I previously wrote about Trump shaking down countries and companies. Now he was a piece of Intel. Not content in trying to oust their CEO, now the government wants a financial stake in the company. Good grief. Why doesn’t Trump just get Taiwan Semiconductor to move all its operations here in exchange for us guaranteeing total protection of the island.

Speaking of Taiwan, I also mentioned that China could be doing a rope-a-dope and actually has its sights on Upper Manchuria and Siberia. It makes infinitely more sense to put 100,000 troops on the border and walk into those countries rather than trying to negotiate the 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait. Do you think that China might be worried that in the Trump-Putin only talks that the fate of Siberia might be discussed. I have wonder why Trump has been soft on Russia. It has imposed punitive tariffs on our one allies and all of the world save Russia. Trump has been putting tariffs on Russia’s trading partners – like India – but not on Russia itself. He has been saying that if Russia doesn’t agree to a truce on Ukraine that he will be REALLY REALLY MAD and will hit them with REALLY REALLY BIG TARIFFS! So he is going to negotiate a true without Ukraine being in the room? Shades of Neville Chamberlain. Does this mean that if the Ukraine doesn’t agree to whatever truce is negotiated in their absence that he will impose REALLY REALLY BIG TARIFFS on Ukraine. JD Vance has already said that the US may stop shipping arms to Zelenskyy via Europe. Of course Trump doesn’t like Zelenskyy in the first place and even less when he said that no cease fire can exist if Ukraine has to cede territory to Russia.

Again way back when I wondered why Russia would invade Ukraine. It is obvious – at least to me – that it was to capture the vast riches of the country especially its oil and rare earth minerals. The territory that the Russians are demanding as a condition of a cease fire, the Donetsk Oblast, is sitting astride $5.7 trillion in rare earth minerals.

Trump said that he was meeting Putin in Russia. “You know, I’m going to see Putin. I’m going to Russia on Friday.” If Biden had said that, the MAGAs would have been loudly questioning his mental acuity. Not so with Trump. Now consider that Trump negotiates a “truce” totally unacceptable to Ukraine and ceases furnishing weapons, leaving it all up to the Europeans who are also excluded from the talk. if Trump makes an alliance with Putin, then the Chinese will be upset because of the possibility that the US would also aid Russia in repelling any Chinese aggression in Siberia and Manchuria. Also the Europeans would be left out to dry. The only reason the Europeans pay any respect to the Americans is that we keep the Russians at bay and pay for the privilege of defending them.. A Putin-Trump alliance would devastate Europe even more that the ridiculous 39% tariff on Switzerland. Vance went over there and chided the Europeans about their behavior. Trump has shown distain for virtually every European leader except Italy’s Meloni, Hungary’s Orban and Poland’s Duda.

So there are obvious benefits with an alliance for the Russians but what about for the United States. Little was said about the talks that Marco Rubio had with his Russian counterparts in London. But Rubio talked about the “extraordinary opportunities,” economic and geopolitical, that the United States and Russia could both seize once the war in Ukraine was over.” Trump also said that he was “trying to do some economic development deals” with Moscow. Russia was once a place to do business, despite all the pitfalls, mainly because of its energy sector. However, America is now the major competitor in the world with Russian energy. Trump is talking about “economic development deals”. Will that be enough for a Putin-Trump pact? I don’t know but I do know that such a deal would only last while both are in office. Just like Trump’s handshake deals with companies and countries, once he is gone all that goes away. I also can guarantee that Trump’s dominance also goes away once he leaves office. But a Putin-Trump alliance would really be interesting. Wouldn’t it?

Trump: The Art of the Shakedown

What is this pay-for-play capitalism that Trump is engaging in? Is he trying to take full advantage of the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity by engaging in what looks like bribes and kickbacks in his shakedowns of countries and businesses. The media is now calling this State Capitalism. Of course, I named it American Socialism. Again it is anti-market and is used to enhance the power of the executive. I wonder if Trump got any tips from Chairman Xi? Consider the following:

1. In the trade deal with Japan Trump said that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States and that U.S. will “receive 90% of the profits.” Of course Trump will decide on how the 90 percent will be distributed. BTW, this “deal” has got to be with funds from the Japanese government because no company would agree to these outrageous terms.
2. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give Trump 15% of their AI chip sales to China. Mind you this is on sales and not profits. After extorting this agreement, Trump then announced that tech companies that invest in the US would be exempt from his 100% tariffs on chips. Note that the agreement allows Nvidia to sell to China its Hopper chip and not its more advanced Blackwell chip. The chip isn’t advanced enough to quickly train large language AI models, “but is useful for inference functions, or the processes by which models that have already been trained can draw conclusions from new data.”
3. Don’t forget the so-called “golden share” of US Steel as a condition for Trump agreeing to allow Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel. This gives the president the power to appoint a board member and have a say in company decisions that affect domestic steel production and competition with overseas producers. So Trump is making the CEO of US Steel get his approval for operations?
4. Trump has gone after the CEO of Intel demanding his resignation. The Chips Act gifted Intel with $8.5 billion giving Trump the leverage to try to run this company as well.
5. Then there is the $1.5 trillion that has been extorted in the trade deals in monies supposed to come to the US as investments that Trump himself will personally direct their use.
6. In a push for rare earth minerals the Treasury department is taking a 15% share in a rare earth mining company MP Materials. Does Trump get a board seat here too?
7. Trump has used executive orders, the “Justice” Department and regulatory powers against media companies, banks, law firms and companies he doesn’t like, while rewarding those who toe the line. Don’t you think that this is fertile ground for kickbacks and bribes? No wonder Don Jr and the family are raking it in. What about the Big Guy? Oh, he is immune from prosecution.
8. Trump has said that the “investments” allow countries to “buy down” their tariffs. Trump told CNBC “They [The European Union] bought down the tariffs from 30% to 15%. That’s a gift, not a loan” adding he could invest in anything he wants. Quote: “The details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want.” Anything.

Congress did not give Trump this power to use trillions of dollars as he sees fit. No treaties were negotiated. These are handshake agreements that can be changed on a moments notice as Trump sees fit. None of this is legally binding. Again, this is further evidence that Trump is anti-market saying that he is determines where the “investments” go rather than the market. I don’t know if this is illegal but it sure is shaky with bad optics. Do you think that our gutless congress will tell Trump to stop this nonsense? Fat chance.

Gerrymandering: What hath Texas wroth?

With Texas emulating states like Illinois in gerrymandering its congressional districts, other states like California have threatened to redistrict to get more democrat seats. Two can play this game. But first a bit of history. Eldridge Gerry was born in Marblehead, Massachusetts and was a founding father and James Madison’s vice president. Marblehead’s place in history is recounted in the wonderful Indispensables, Patrick O’Donnell’s thrilling history of its sailors and their role in rowing Washington across the Delaware at the battle of Trenton. Gerry signed the Declaration of Independence and the Articles of Confederation. Initially he refused to sign the Constitution because it did not contain a bill of rights. When he was governor of Massachusetts Gerry approved a revision of the state’s voting districts that benefitted his own party. Hence the name gerrymandering. Incidentally, Gerry pronounced his name “Gary” and he lost his race for re-election.

Texas is going to get five new republican seats. Currently there are 25 republicans and 13 democrats. The new map is slated to produce 30 republicans and 8 democrats. This follows the gerrymandering of California with 52 congressional seats while only 9 are republican. The Texas democrats fled to Illinois to avoid a quorum. Illinois only recently gerrymandered its districts to eliminate two republican seats resulting in only 3 republican seats out of 17. California’s Gavin Newsom has threatened to overturn the state’s committee entrusted with mapping congressional districts to generate 5 new democrat seats. Illinois is threatening to gerrymander even more to get rid of both republican seats. New York has said that it might do so as well. Almost comically, Massachusetts governor Maura Healey, who is a few fries short of a happy meal, said that she might too gerrymander. Then someone reminded her that her state already is 8-0 democrat.

On the other hand, the republican controlled states of Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Indiana could get rid of democrat seats. In all, the political pundits say that the democrat controlled states might squeeze out another seat or two but essentially they have tapped out. Republicans on the other hand have not, meaning that republicans are likely to win the gerrymandering wars.

Along with the redrawing of congressional maps, the topic of the census inevitably arises. The census counts people and not citizens. Trump tried to get the census changed in his first term and failed. Now he has issued an executive order to have the census count only citizens. Look for a barrage of lawsuits from the democrats. Why? The republicans contend that one of the reasons why Biden left the border open was to attract more illegals which would then be counted in the census. The democrats must agree or else they would not sue. Vice President Vance has said that California “has way more House seats than it should, because they have such a high population of illegal aliens. So they get rewarded for welcoming illegal aliens into their state, giving them federal benefits, actually asking the taxpayers of states like Ohio to give subsidize them, and then those same taxpayers in Ohio and Indiana and elsewhere, they have fewer congressional representatives, because of what California has allowed to happen.” Vance says that while 17 percent of the California delegation is republican, the party gets 40 percent of the votes in the state. Vance contends that because the census counts people if it only counted citizens the republicans would have 10 more seats. Some others have gone as far as contending that the democrats have 22 more seats In the House by taking the number in a congressional district (761,000) and dividing that into the number of illegals supposed to be in the country, 16.8 million. 

Far be it for me to question the math prowess of our vice president since he went to the Ohio State University but he just might be overstating the issue. First, illegals cannot vote in federal elections. Yes I know there can be shenanigans but bear with me. Let us assume that a certain number of citizens move out of a California district to Texas and are replaced one for one with illegals. Although it is possible that California would keep the same number of seats, there is no guarantee since Texas would be gaining population both from citizens moving from California and illegals who reside in the state. So Texas by increasing its population while California’s is stagnant would result in California losing a seat and Texas gaining one. Second, statistics like republicans get 40 percent of the vote so they should have 40 percent of the seats doesn’t make any sense. Suppose the republicans are concentrated in only a few select districts? Or suppose they are scattered equally around the state and lose each district being outvoted 60% to 40% which in politics is a landslide. Then they would win 40 percent of the vote and have zero seats. That was the case with Louisiana where the courts ordered a racial gerrymandering to create a second majority minority district. More on that later. Third, Vance and others like him are assuming that the illegals migrate predominately to democrat run states like California, Illinois and New York. But what about Florida and Texas? Also, ATTENTION JD: 39 of California’s 52 congressional districts are majority minority. That is 75 percent. Yet whites make up 44% of the California population. Have California whites been racially gerrymandered? Shouldn’t whites have 44 percent of the seats (23) rather than the 25% (13) they have now? Aren’t the whites in California being denied adequate representation based on race? Hum?

How can one tell if the illegals are affecting congressional seats? One would have to look at each congressional district while maintaining the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. The Pew Research Center did that type of analysis and said of the 2020 census that if illegals were excluded then there would be a shift in three seats. California, Texas and Florida would lose a seat while Alabama, Ohio and Minnesota would gain a seat.  So if the republicans were to win all the seats, they would only increase their count by three not 22. By the way, the Cato Institute – a libertarian think tank – found that illegal migration has benefitted republican controlled states more than democrat ones between 2019 and 2023 with 1.2 million going to republican states and 72,000 to democrat states. Oops. Maybe the republicans should have looked at the numbers before they started their whining.

I think what is more significant than the gerrymandering brouhaha is something that few are reporting on. That is the Supreme Court case of Louisiana v. Callais, reported in passing by Jeffrey Blehar in his National Review piece “Liberation Day Comes to Washington, D.C.” 

https://www.nationalreview.com/carnival-of-fools/liberation-day-comes-to-washington-d-c/

The court has put this on its docket for September. This is a case of racial gerrymandering in the state of Louisiana to create a majority minority district giving the state two based on race rather than one. Previously in Robinson vs Landry a state district court ruled that having only one majority minority district in the state violated Section 2 of the Voters Rights Act. Needless to say the district is anything but compact and uniform. It literally runs diagonally through the state to get enough blacks to make the new district majority minority. The redrawing resulted in the defeat of the white republican congressman by a black democrat. The losing congressman and his white constituents sued claiming that redistricting solely on the basis of race is unconstitutional and violated the Equal Protection clause and is a racial gerrymander. If the Supreme Court were to rule with the plaintiffs it would overturn Section 2 of the Voter Rights Act and imperil democrat seats in Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina. Ruling Section 2 unconstitutional would be an earthquake would be an understatement. Such a ruling would result in demonstrations throughout the country, likely on an unprecedented scale. I am not a lawyer but it seems to me that a colorblind reading of the Constitution may be at odds with the Court’s prior interpretation of the enforcement of the 14^thand 15^th Amendments. But then, maybe not. I am anxious to see what happens in this case.

Finally, if the courts only intervene in racial but not political gerrymandering, then couldn’t it be argued that blacks are not being racially gerrymandered since 90+ percent of them are democrats? Just saying.

Trump: Vengeance is mine!

Remember the interview that Trump had with Fox’s Bret Baier? When asked if he would be seeking retribution if elected, Trump replied “our ultimate retribution is success.” Trump then said “I’m not going to have time for retribution. We’re going to make this country so successful again, I’m not going to have time for it.” Well he lied. Knowing Trump and his proclivities I think few if any of us believed him. In fact, retribution began almost from the first day in the White House when he revoked the security clearances of those 50 former intelligence officers who showed “misleading and inappropriate political coordination” with Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. 

That was only the beginning. He then had his AG Pam (Blondie) Bondi “to seek sanctions against attorneys and law firms who oppose him and sue him in court. This includes immigration lawyers. This has forced several law firms to end their relationships with illegal immigrant groups trying to defend illegals against deportation. The “Justice” department even started going after small independent lawyers who had defended illegals. One legal expert said “Would DOJ, under normal circumstances, move for sanctions against a lawyer who sought to protect their client from removal in this kind of a context? I don’t think so.”

To say that this has a chilling effect is an understatement. Small lawyers can not stand up to DOJ. Even the large law firms cannot meaning that the illegals lose legal representation because of the might of the Department of “Justice”. I know some Trump defenders will argue that the illegals should not have legal counsel but I strongly disagree. I am of the let them have the best defense possible before we deport them camp.

Trump then started going after law firms that had litigated cases against him. he issued an executive order regarding the firm Perkins Cole that had filed lawsuits against the administration. The order said that the federal government was barred from working with the firm or using contractors who work for it. Employees at the firm—including 1,200 lawyers and 2,500 workers who are not involved in Perkins Coie’s legal cases—would also be barred from entering federal buildings and their security clearances would be suspended. Talk about chilling! Of course a federal judge almost immediately issued a temporary restraining order halting Trump’s penalties, which she said were retaliatory. Trump’s order even barred Perkins Cole’s clients with government contracts from working with the firm. Vengeance is mine!

Then there are the actions taken by the “Justice” Department against New York attorney general Letitia James and California senator Adam Schiff. This is just an opening salvo. James is being investigated for trying to throw Trump in jail over trumped up charges whose stature of limitations had expired. Trump now says that her office violated his rights by bringing a civil lawsuit against him and his business. Do tell? This is a federal offense? Schiff is accused of mortgage fraud by claiming a home in Maryland as his primary residence in order to get a favorable mortgage rate. But we know the real reason is that Schiff chaired the House Intelligence Committee when it investigated Trump’s Russian hoax charges and was a member of a House committee probing the Jan. 6, 2021 “insurrection.” Schiff used his notoriety to get elected to the senate and now Trump aims to get him. Trump would also like to go after Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney and the entire January 6^thcommittee, but Biden gave them all immunity before he left office.

Do you think that Tulsi Gabbard’s release of the Russia hoax documents implicating Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, James Comey, James Clapper, Jack Smith, Peter Strzok , Lisa Page was anything but a personal vendetta and retribution?  They are just an ever growing cast of thousands that Trump is out to get. It extends to the multitude of federal workers who have been terminated as Trump exacts his vengeance against the Deep State. But what about Fani Willis and Alvin Bragg or Michael Cohen? They are probably next. 

Yep, Pam (Blondie) Bondi has enough to keep her busy for the rest of Trump’s term.

Can Trump “bend the Fed to his will?”

When Fed governor Kugler resigned the Wall Street Journal which should know better had the headline “Trump Just Got a Fresh Shot at Bending the Fed to His Will.” No such thing, Wall Street Journal. Trump currently have two appointees, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both of whom apparently want to be named chairman which induced them to vote for a cut in the Fed funds rate at the last Open Market Committee Meeting. Bowman has since gone public and says that she will vote for again for a cut at the September meeting. Expect Waller to do so too. Trump just named his Council of Economic Advisors chief Stephen Miran to fill Kugler’s term. But he likely bwill not be confirmed in time for the September meeting and may not even be confirmed by the time Kugler’s term expires in January if the senate democrats keep dragging their feet on Trump’s nominees.

But Miran may be an indicator of what type of person that Trump will ultimately chose although I think it is a mistake to nominate someone now and have to nominate some other person later. Miran is all in on Trump’s tariffs which landed him the job at the Council of Economic Advisors. Miran also feels that the reserve status of the dollar keeps it overvalued leading to trade imbalances. Of course, this argument would only apply to large developed countries that are trading partners and not to places like Syria and Myanmar. So Miran wants to devalue the dollar so as to weaken its status as a reserve currency. He has also advocated putting a tax on foreign holdings of Treasury securities. I am not going to dissect all this except to say that I thought Trump liked the dollar’s reserve status which allows the US to borrow at lower rates. Trump has also threatened to impose punitive tariffs on the BRICS nations if they attempt to counter the US dollar. That seems contrary to Miran’s positions.

But will a new fed governor allow Trump to “bend the Fed at his will?” Not hardly. The Journal must have been inflicted by the President’s poor math. Another appointee gives him three seats on the Open Market Committee. The committee has twelve members, the seven governors, the president of the New York Fed and four rotating reserve bank presidents. So even if the three appointees bend to Trump’s demands they will be outvoted 9-3. Also, I bet that after Trump names his choice for chairman that Bowman and Waller will again assert their independence from the president. 

I know the Fed. If somehow Trump were to install a lackey who had no independence from the president, I almost could guarantee that that person would face open resistance from the rest of the committee. Now that should really shake up markets! The president may then try to fire the other governors. But he will fail – just see the decision on the National Credit Union Administration board members. He could try to fire the reserve bank presidents. However, the authority to remove them rests with each reserve bank’s board of directors or with the Board of Governors itself. Neither would be likely.

So the Journal’s headline is misleading and is indicative of the growing sloppiness and inaccuracy in reporting of that once venerable newspaper.

Kugler, TDS and Recognize Palestine?

I posted earlier that Fed governor Adriana Kugler’s term was ending in January. This would give Trump the opportunity to nominate someone who could then be nominated as chairman when Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026. Well Kugler may have read my post – which I doubt – and has decided to resign effective August 8 to return to Georgetown University as vice provost. Dr Kugler’s PhD is from Berkeley and she was once the US executive director of the World Bank, a position that President Carter had intended to nominate me had he been reelected. Despite that I voted for Reagan. All of the news wags are saying that Kugler is stepping down early in order to give Trump the opportunity to shape the central bank. In her resignation note, she gave no reason for departing early. But Trump being Trump said without proof that she resigned over a disagreement with Powell on interest rates. If that were true, wouldn’t she have dissented along with the two Trump appointees? Actually being an academic I know why Kugler is leaving now. It is because the academic year is beginning and she wants to be at the university when it starts. I did the same thing, as did many other academics serving in government positions.

Hate Trump? Get a Life!

I have an old dear friend of going on 50 years who is not just a liberal, she calls herself a socialist. Of course she vehemently hates Donald Trump. She read my Linkedin comment on the reinstatement of the fired NCUA Board members and asked “Still happy with the administration?” I responded “Huh?Read my blog and then think about that last sentence. See what I have said from the beginning about the firings. And the tariffs. I am no Trump apologist and never have been if you had been paying attention.” She doesn’t read my blog because much of it is too painful for her sensitivities. But if she had, she wouldn’t have made such a silly statement. But then I told her that despite all that Trump has wroth, that given the choice between Kamala Harris and Trump, I still would vote for Trump. I think she might have then had a minor heart attack. Going forward, we will revert to our nonpolitical conversations. When I said she had Trump Derangement Syndrone she said TDS did not exist because everything Trump did was destructive and evil.

One of my other yellow dog hate Trump democrat told me that TDS did exist but it was among the MAGAverse defending Trump no matter what. He said he hated the Big Beautiful Bill. I surprised him when I said that I hated it too. He hated it because it trashed all of Biden’s initiatives. I hated it because it did not reduce spending. I have said all along that what I care about is for the Federal budget not only to be constrained but to be on a path that reduces its rate of growth. Unlike my democrat friend, at my core I don’t care how it is spent. They can give the entire trillions to me. They can give it all to the military. They can give it all to seniors. Seriously. constrain the budget to grow at no more than the previous year’s increase in GDP. I would have the president’s cabinet submit their budgets to the House (those budgets would sum up to the total allowed) and then let the House tinker around with them but send out a bill that cannot exceed that mandated. I know that it may sound weird that I care how much is spent rather than how it is spent. But I do. I figure that businesses and consumers are smart enough to adapt to whatever nonsense comes out of the congress. 

Palestine, Oh Palestine, wherefore art thou?

What’s with England, Canada, France and Malta (Malta?) all saying they will recognize a Palestinian state (provided they can find it)? Did you know that currently 147 countries officially recognize a “state” of Palestine? They envision a country likely made up of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem — territories Israel seized in the 1967 Mideast war. Does anyone really think that Israel will evict its citizens from their settlements on the West Bank and the Golan Heights like they did in 2005 when they demolished 21 settlements in Gaza? Do you think that Israel wants another Arab enemy state as a next door neighbor? I think a forced resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza like Trump has suggested and I elaborated in an earlier blog is more likely. Trump seemed irritated with the French announcement. I am surprised he didn’t threaten to double their tariffs. Tu as perdu la tête ? Macron?

Random Thoughts #65

My posting on Syndey Sweeney has blown up my text messages and emails. Most of the comments, save Larry, Drummer and sometimes druhead are not made on my blog, which is perfectly fine if others don’t want to share them with the public. I would prefer that they are on the blog to generate more conversation and thought. There are still those who contend in all seriousness that the pun on genes was out of malice. Personally, I pun all the time, sometimes considered not in good taste but always in good fun. Get a life, ya’ll!

OK all the brouhaha made me look at the ads. What I noticed was that all the jeans had wide legs eschewing the super tight look. Does this mean we are going to have a recession? Or does it just mean that I am really old if the first thing I noticed were the wide legs?

Some so-called expert said that the most intelligent dog was the Border collie. Obviously, that person never owned a German shorthaired pointer.

OK so Trump can’t do math. Recall that he is going to make the drug companies reduce their prices by 1,500 percent? But what of the democrats who had this poster displayed at a hearing?

Who’s afraid of AI? I read where AI will create massive unemployment. Where have we heard that before? Seems like every shift in technology brings out the same dire warnings. The agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution, the invention of the automobile assembly line, the mainframe computer (remember HAL or the Terminator’s Skynet?), the desktop computer and now AI all are (or were) forecast to bring poverty rather than prosperity. To have people wandering aimlessly in the streets. To force governments to have guaranteed annual incomes and augmented welfare programs. Give me a break. How many of us are toiling in the fields or sweating in factories or doing back breaking work? Yet we are employed and better off than previous generations. I am optimistic for my grandchildren’s future. So why aren’t you? BTW, a friend of mine kept wondering why was everyone getting upset over a steak sauce.

Australia is having Mitsubishi build their naval frigates amid efforts to build back their navy. Why can’t we do the same?

The Chinese are limiting the shipment of their rare earths to our military. Can’t say I blame them. Isn’t this tit for tat since we have banned certain chips being sold to the Chinese?

I am a deer hunter. The enduring value of Gore-tex is to allow hunters to hunt in all weather comfortably. The Swedish manufacturer Polarn has done the same for children’s outerwear. Now it is exiting the US because of Trump’s tariffs. They make their clothing in China and the tariffs on their merino wool clothing and insulated outerwear have gotten prohibitive. It won’t be the last to exit because of the tariffs (see my posting on Lesotho). Like the Canadians who drive their RVs into the states to fill them up on gas so they can siphon them off into their autos due to the high Canadian gas prices, I am wondering if we are going to see little kids coming through customs looking like the Michelin Man or the Pillsbury Dough Boy.

I was writing weeks ago that Fed governor Kugler’s expiring term offered Trump an opportunity to put his nominee (er, lackey) for chairman at the Fed starting in January. Now Kugler has resigned an lo and behold the media has discovered the same thing. I was once asked how is it that I can write something and soon thereafter it gets reported elsewhere. I guess that some things are so obvious because I know that all those folk are not reading my blog and Knoxville Focus articles.

The president has said that he is nominating Council of Economics head Stephan Miran to fill Kugler’s expiring term while he looks for a permanent person. That means that Miran will only be at the Fed until January. Then someone else will have to go through senate hearings. Pardon me if I don’t understand. Miran is no slam dunk given the democrats propensity to lobby against and delay all Trump nominees. He has to go through the confirmation process. Why do this a second time with someone else? It is bad sign – to me – that Trump did not have a permanent person already vetted and in place. Word is now that he is considering Judy Shelton again. He nominated her in 2019 but her nomination was withdrawn by Biden. Will the second time be the charm? Dr Shelton would be a superb governor. She is actually an expert on monetary processes and a staunch advocate of a return to a commodity standard like gold. She is a leading critic of the Fed. Her nomination would be consistent with Trump putting people in place at agencies at which they are critics.

Am I the only one tired of the president injecting himself into everything, no matter how trivial? Examples include extolling Mexican Coke (oops Mexican Coca-Cola) even though he drinks Diet Coke, threatening to withhold stadium funding for the Commanders unless they change their name back to the Redskins, saying ‘I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT,’ she’s no longer ‘HOT?’ because she endorsed Kamala Harris, then saying Syndney Sweeney was the HOTTEST!, firing obscure boards, terminating people left and right, firing Puerto Rico’s finance oversight board, putting on tariffs on every country in the world regardless of trade status, threatening to invade Panama and Greenland and so much more.

So what hath Trump wroth? Only total chaos in economics, world order, supply chains, national and international security, international relations, partisan politics, local, state, national and international governance, legal systems both home and abroad, and the daily news. That’s all.

Biden’s family got rich off of old Joe. Now Trump’s family is getting richer too. Hum, maybe side deals with tariffs?

So Lara Trump has decided not to run for the senate from North Carolina. She is a Trump by marriage and was born in Wrightsville Beach and went to NC State. I don’t know anything about if she would have been a good candidate or a good senator but that bar is very low. I do know one thing if her name were still Lara Yunaska she wouldn’t have even have a chance of being considered as a possibility.

Speaking of Trump-by-marriage rather than by birth. Tiger Woods is dating Vanessa Trump. Again this is a pseudo-Trump having been married once to Don, Jr. Vanessa was smart to keep the name Trump (as opposed to my ex and many like her who reverted to their family names). Hey would you want to be known as Vanessa Kay Pergolizzi? I think Trump likes this romance so that Tiger can help him with his golf game. Right now his swing reminds me of Charles Barkley.

Did Trump really cheat at golf in Scotland?

Our math challenged president just might be a Bernie bro

Donald Trump is not just a RINO, he might be a socialist. What! Well Trump just came out of the socialist closet. Not a Bernie Sanders socialist but an American socialist. I wrote in the Knoxville Focus (knoxfocus.com) on September 23, 2023 about the American brand of socialism. “In American Socialism, the means of production remain in private hands. The government determines winners and losers through subsidization and taxation. Since the means of production are still in private hands, American socialism requires a partnership between big government and big business, big media, big tech, big pharma and big retail. American Socialism manifested itself under Trump’s reaction to COVID. The first panicked response was to lock down the economy except for big business. Over 600,000 small businesses failed for no reason other than the government deemed them nonessential. Big businesses stayed open and had fewer competitors.”

Now Trump had abandoned free trade. He is anti-market and pro big business. No self respecting republican would erect trade barriers and start threatening the economic viability of our trading partners. And now he is trying to tell big pharna to lower their prices by 1,500 percent. I am not joking. Trump says that they must reduce their prices within the next 60 days. What? A republican sounding like Bernie Sanders? Did we elect Bernie president? Here is what Trump says “This is something that nobody else can do. We’re gonna get the drug prices down. Not 30 or 40% which would be great, not 50 or 60, no. We’re gonna get ‘em down 1,000%, 600%, 500%, 1,500%.” Well he was right about that one, this is something that nobody else can do, not even Trump. Some wags called his math befuddling. That is kind. He then doubled down saying “We will have reduced drug prices by 1,100, 1,200, 1,300, 1,400, 700, 600; not 30 or 40 or 50% but numbers the likes of which you’ve never even dreamed of before.” Hey, I thought the new math was only taught in today’s elementary schools. Remember 2 plus 2 is whatever little Johnnie wants it to be because we do not want to damage his self esteem. Karoline Levitt, his press secretary, reported this with a straight face. Maybe she has kids trying to learn math. Personally, I think she is as bad as Karine Jean-Pierre. Bring back Tony Snow!

So let me see. If Trump reduces a $30 drug by 300 percent, then the drug company will pay us $120 to “buy” it. Sweet! Sign me up! Trump sent letters to pharmaceutical manufacturers including AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Genentech, Gilead, GSK, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Regeneron and Sanofi.  The letters listed steps to reduce the prices of prescription drugs in the U.S. “to match the lowest price offered in other developed nations (known as the most-favored-nation, or MFN, price).”  Trump warned that if steps weren’t taken the federal government “will deploy every tool in our arsenal to protect American families from continued abusive drug pricing practices.” Yep, sounds like ole Bernie to me.

Americans do pay significantly more for name brand drugs that most other countries. As a matter of fact those prices are often three times more. However, most American prescription drugs are of the generic variety and American generics are priced similar to those around the world. Even with the name brand drugs, Americans seldom see the full price given copays and insurance. It is well documented that other countries restrict high priced drugs that are available only to Americans – see the British and Canadian systems. Also our VA has less drugs available than you can get from your family doctor. I am reminded of the joke in which a guy walks into a gas station and says “Why are you charging $3.09 for regular? The station on the next block charges $2.89? The gas station guy says “Well why don’t you go over there?” “He’s out.” “Well when I’m out I also charge $2.89.”

The drug companies have talked about how much their R&D costs are and how much it costs to develop, go through the approval process and get a new designer drug to market. On average it takes from $1 – $2 billion to bring the drug to market and 10 to 15 years to go from development to approval. If Trump gets the drug companies to bend to his demands then look for all this to grind to a screeching halt. Yes we will still have drugs but the designer drugs developed to treat rare diseases will grind to a halt. But would you stay in business if you had to pay customers to take your product? What is Trump going to do next? Nationalize the drug companies?

Consider that the FDA approved the drug ipilimumab for the treatment of metastatic melanoma. Its cost is $120,000 for 4 doses. We see it advertised all over the place as Yervoy which works to activate the immune system by targeting CTLA-4, a protein receptor that downregulates the immune system. The commercial talks about “asking your doctor” and that the drug allows you to “live longer”. Now there are ads saying to link it with Opdivo with Yervoy is a combination of two chemo-free immunotherapy treatments and is “intended to treat adults who have been newly diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer.”  What I want to know is if the drug is available through the Canadian and British health systems, what are the requirements for use and how much is the cost. I found the following regarding Canada, “One Canadian patient (Patient 7) accessed the combination therapy off-label through self-pay with 20% reimbursement through a Special Access Program, which resulted in approximately CA$100,000 in out-of-pocket fees. Five patients (Patients 3, 6, 9, 10, 11), all residents of the USA, were prescribed the combination therapy and received coverage from their private health insurance plan. Patient 14, a U.S. resident, was prescribed the combination therapy while it was still in phase 2 trials. Initially, his insurance provider denied coverage. However, after significant advocacy by his oncologist, full coverage for nivolumab and ipilimumab was eventually approved.” So much for free health care!

Click to access PC0396_Opdivo_Yervoy_Patient_Clinician_Input.pdf

Quiz: What’s the difference between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders? Is it just the hair? Well Trump supporters say that Sanders is a communist while Sanders’ supporters say that Trump is a Nazi. But Nazi stands for the Nationalist Socialist German Workers Party which actually sounds communist to me. So does this mean that Bernie is a Nazi?