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Trump creates 186,182 jobs! 

The March jobs report just came in and the president is jubilant. It said that 186,000 new jobs were created, a figure three times that which was expected. This tells us at least two things. First, the experts should be fired. When have they ever been remotely in the right neighborhood? Second, what are the actual job numbers after the revisions. They probably won’t be the 133,000 job loss in February but don’t you think that these wild swings in the numbers are a wee bit suspicious? Trump, of course took credit for the job increase (he did not take credit for the job loss) when he tweeted “A very happy and blessed Good Friday to all, especially to the 186,000 Americans who gained Private Sector jobs in the month of March alone! My Economic Policies have created an enormously powerful engine of Economic Growth, and nothing can slow it down.” Factory Construction Jobs are soaring as a result of the rapid Onshoring and surging Investment that TARIFFS have generated, all while the Trade Deficit has shrunk by 52% in a year!”

I don’t want to throw cold water on such exuberance but if you break down the numbers, overall construction jobs grew by only 26,000 and the manufacturing sector remained flat. Most of the job growth was again in healthcare with a gain of 78,000, transportation and warehousing up 21,000. Finance was down 15,000 jobs while the federal government shed another 18,000. If you can see a sector where tariffs generated positive job growth please show me. BTW, I could not find how many of those 26,000 construction jobs were factory construction jobs. One worry though is that labor force participation fell again and is now 61.9 percent. That means that more people dropped out of the labor force and are no longer seeking jobs. Recall that the unemployment rate only counts those people out of a job and seeking a job. Also contrary to Trump’s patting himself on the back is that the Institute for supply Management noted that their index fell to 48.7 which indicates a contraction in the economy (positive growth would be an index over 50).

So let’s wait to see what the revision tells us. In February job losses were initially reported as 92,000 and revised to a loss of 133,000. When the March numbers get revised downward don’t expect a press release from the White House. But just for comparison, here is the statement from the White House for the March preliminary numbers:

“The March jobs report blew out expectations with strong construction job growth and a surge in manufacturing job creation as trillions of dollars in investments begin to materialize. America remains on a solid economic trajectory thanks to President Trump’s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy dominance. Americans can rest assured that after the short-term disruptions of Operation Epic Fury are behind us, America’s economic resurgence is set to only accelerate.”

Again, the statement is puzzling given the numbers for construction jobs and manufacturing jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But as to the real numbers, we will wait and see.

In addition to the 186,000 jobs created in March, Trump also created 182 more in agriculture. Earlier Trump said that one of his goals – through deportations, shutting down the border and tariffs – was to create a 100 percent American agricultural workforce. Well the Department of Labor just released a report showing that US workers applied for a whopping 182 of 415,000 agricultural jobs advertised last year. 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/farm-labor-trump-administration-h-2a-visas-immigrants-d028e121

I thought that was a misprint. But farmers report crops rotting in the fields because they can’t get workers. The irony is that agricultural produce is having to be imported because American crops cannot be harvested. And of course, due to the tariffs, food prices are going up. Do you think that the farmers can push Stephen Miller to agree to a guest worker program?

Trump throws as hissy. GOP endorses socialism.

Thar she blows!

The president’s profanity laden tweet on his war on Iran was embarrassing – to me. He said:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the [F***in’] Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

He also said “I think there is a good chance tomorrow, they are negotiating now. If Iran fails to make a deal, you’re going to see bridges and power plants dropping all over their country.”

“If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.”

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,”

Let’s just be kind and call this rant “unhinged.” 

Well Iran’s leaders (the aforementioned crazy bastards) rejected Trump’s ultimatum and rejected a proposed 45 day ceasefire. Although I hate the term “TACO” (Trump always chickens out), I wonder if people will say it applies here. Well the breaking news is that Trump did decide to “chicken out”. After announcing an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of every bridge and power plant in the country, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and the United States and Israel will engage in a two-week ceasefire.

GOP: Let’s legalize socialism!s

Once upon a time being a republican meant small government, less regulation, economic growth, embrace of capitalism, individual freedom and private property. No more. What now seems to distinguish republicans are the stance on abortion, DEI, trans and social – not economic – issues. The latest embrace of socialism comes from Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) who has just introduced a bill to codify Trump’s taking equity shares in private companies. Commerce secretary Lutnick in defending Trump’s demand for equity in firms like Intel said “Hey, we want equity for the money. If we’re going to give you the money, we want a piece of the action.” Well Davidson’s bill in reauthorizing the Defense Production Act allows the Defense Production Act Committee – made up of the heads of federal Agencies – to make take equity in private companies so long as the secretary of the treasury—acting as the “Fund manager” – says the company “is unable to obtain additional equity investment from private sources on commercially reasonable terms.” The bill caps government ownership at 15 percent. Although 15 percent looks like a small number it would make the government the majority owner is many firms.

It used to be that a real republican would say that if the market would not fund the venture then it should not be funded. Again no more. Now if the investment would be unprofitable and the private sector would not fund it, the government would step in and fund it by purchasing shares in the company. Hey, who needs Bernie Sanders when we have Warren Davidson and Donald Trump?

Deport Omar. No Commies. Influencers.

Deport Omar?

Don’t be surprised if Trump tries to deport Ilhan Omar. JD Vance has taken up the old claim that Omar committed immigration fraud saying she “definitely committed immigration fraud against the United States of America.” Omar of course denies it saying that it is a “This is a ridiculous lie and desperate attempt to distract from the pedophile protection party’s unpopular war of choice, increasing gas prices, and rapidly dropping polling numbers.” This is the old claim that Omar married her brother in order to get him into the United States. What puzzles me is shouldn’t this be easy to find out the truth? Apparently not. Omar says of Trump “He needs serious help. Since he has no economic policies to tout, he’s resorting to regurgitating bigoted lies instead.”

Vance said he has spoken with White House immigration advisor Stephen Miller about potential legal action against Omar. We’re trying to look at what the remedies are. That’s the thing that we’re trying to figure out is what are the legal remedies now that we know that she’s committed immigration fraud — how do you go after her, how do you investigate her, how do you actually do the thing, how do you build a case necessary to get some justice for the American people?” Translation: we are going to try to deport her and revoke her citizenship.

At the “No Kings” rally in Minneapolis, Omar said “We are witnessing a full-scale assault on our rights, our institutions and the rule of law. We have an administration that is openly and brazenly breaking the law and acting like the Constitution is optional.” Excuse me, but is this a joke? See below.

Speaking of “No Kings”

That Omar talks about Trump “acting like the Constitution is optional” is laughable because she wishes that it were so but only when the democrats return to power. Does Omar support the Electoral College? Does she support the Second Amendment? Isn’t the Constitution replete with provisions designed to limit the scope and power of the government that the left would love to ignore? Don’t the centralized government and the nationalization of production go against everything embodied in our Constitution? As long as I can remember the left has been at war with the Constitution and now Omar claims that it is “optional” with Trump. If true instead of criticizing him, she should be praising him. Maybe then, he will stop trying to deport her.

No Commies either

I admit that I did not know that there was just another “No Kings” rally. However, I was somewhat distressed to see hammer and sickles on display. That flag needs to be in the dustbin alongside the confederate battle flag and the swastika. It only shows the staggering ignorance of people who embrace the totalitarianism of communism while charging Trump with being an authoritarian. What all those folk out there shouting “no kings” really want is their own brand of totalitarianism with only democrats and leftists allowed. They want to purge all non-believers, much like Mao and Stalin did and have one party rule. Hopefully their emulation of communism doesn’t translate into purging the nonbelievers. 

Speaking of Mao and Stalin, protesters in New York chanted “There is only one solution, Communist revolution.” This is from the communist party USA’s website: “It’s been estimated 5 million people participated nationwide with the June 14 “No Kings Day” protests against Trump and the MAGA right’s billionaire-backed assault on the people’s democratic rights. CPUSA members were in the mix, adding their Communist plus to the day’s events.” What no mention of the left’s billionaire-backed assault on people’s democratic rights? Who were the main financial backers of the No Kings rallies? Huh? 

So to my friends at the No Kings rallies: beware the company that you keep.

Influencers and Big Pharma?

I have often wondered who do influencers influence? Why would anyone go out and buy something because someone on tik tok said so? Then it occurred to me that all the celebrities in all the commercials are actually influencers. I am sure that hordes of people are rushing to Home Depot  buying power tools and garden seeds because Shaq is doing their commercials. So I was wondering if there is some law against celebrities advertising drugs because of all the drug commercials I have only seen one – Serena Williams and a weight loss drug, Ro. Last year the top five advertised drugs were Keytruda (cancer), Ozempic (diabetes), Eliquis (stroke), Dupixent (eczema), and Skyrizi (Crohn’s disease). Not one of them had a celebrity in their ads. Why not? But query: are there celebrity ads for Big Pharma on social media (X, tik tok, etc)?

Birthright in Court – Am I illegal?

Trump’s solicitor general has an impossible job defending the indefensible. He tried to argue the legality of Trump’s illegal tariffs and was forced to concede their illegality. Now he is trying to argue that the 14^th Amendment doesn’t say what it says. In so doing, much like the tariffs, he has been forced to argue against himself. I thought the main thrust of his argument would be over the interpretation of wording in the amendment which says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” Previously the argument has been over “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” But Sauer is arguing that the overriding factor for determining birthright citizenship should be whether or not a newborn’s parents were “domiciled” in the United States, a term he defined to mean “lawful presence with the intent to remain permanently.” This just plain weird.

Damon Root, writing in Reason (https://reason.com/2026/04/02/gorsuch-barrett-and-roberts-raise-fatal-objections-to-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order/ ) notes that Justice Barett destroyed this line of reasoning when she said What about “the children of slaves who were brought here unlawfully…in defiance of laws forbidding the slave trade. You can imagine that their parents were not only brought here in violation of United States law but were here against their will and so maybe felt allegiance to the countries to where they were from.” And “let’s say they don’t have an intent to stay. They want to escape and go back the second they can. Are they domiciled?” A U.S.-born child of an enslaved person who wanted “to escape and go back” would clearly not qualify for birthright citizenship under Sauer’s argument. And the descendants of such persons, born today, would also be ineligible for birthright citizenship if applied retroactively.

That would mean that any slave who was brought here after the slave trade was declared illegal would never be a citizen. On March 2, 1807, the congress passed a law to “prohibit the importation of slaves into any port or place within the jurisdiction of the United States from any foreign kingdom, place or country.” Thus, the descendants of those slaves should not have been granted citizenship by the 14^th Amendment. That means that I might not actually be a citizen and have been voting illegally and claiming erroneously that I am a citizen and I should be deported. But to where? Congo? Mali? Cameroon? Benin? Togo? Scotland? Ireland? Britain? Even Norway, Sweden or Russia? All of those are in my gene pool. 

Clearly, Sauer’s line of defense is laughable as pointed out by both Barett and Gorsuch. Sauer would have been on somewhat firmer ground with the “jurisdiction” argument and why he chose to argue on the basis of domiciled is a mystery. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump fires Sauer.

Who will Trump fire next?

Trump has fired Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem and Pam (Blondie) Bondi. Who is next? Some say its FBI director Kash Patel or Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll or Labor secretary Lori Chavez- DeRemer. Despite his loyalty to Trump, Patel seems to have fallen out of favor. Defense secretary Hegseth suddenly fired Driscoll’s chief of staff General Randy George and Driscoll is none too pleased. Chavez-DeRemer is in the midst of an investigation of misconduct between her and two aides who recently resigned. Also it is possible that Tulsi Gabbard may be on the way out as well. Lastly, I am still amazed that Commerce secretary Lutnick hasn’t been fired given his lying about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Off with their heads!

Why is Chad in Haiti?

Why is Haiti such a mess? The Dominican Republic occupies the same island and has a stable functioning government, makes major league baseballs and has great baseball players with 99 in the major leagues. Haiti has none. Haiti is a mess. Gangs control much of Port-au-Prince. The UN actually has a gang suppression force (who knew?) that has just sent in 800 officers from Chad to aid Haitian security forces to try to regain control of Por-au-Prince. The troops from Chad will replace those from Kenya who have been in Haiti for the past 21 months trying to do the same thing – trying to reign in the armed gangs. All total 5,500 troops are expected to assume peacekeeping roles in Haiti. More than 800,000 people have fled their homes in the capitol and over 1.4 million people have been displaced.

This is the country to which Trump has asked the Supreme Court to allow him to deport more than 350,000 Haitians back home as he tries to end their temporary protected status. Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem sought to remove their protected status in February and a Federal court blocked her request. Noem had said that the decision to end the protections “reflects a necessary and strategic vote of confidence in the new chapter Haiti is turning” and the president’s “foreign policy vision of a secure, sovereign and self-reliant Haiti.” Noem acknowledged that certain conditions in Haiti remained “concerning,” but said that parts of the country were “suitable” to return to. What parts? I wonder if the Supreme Court will agree with the administration that conditions in Haiti are now “suitable” for a return in light of what is actually going on in the country. I bet if Haiti had large reserves of oil, that Trump would have sent our troops in to help out the UN’s gang suppression force.

Baseball’s new automated balls and strikes system

I love baseball. My love for the game started early. My father would plan our summer vacation around the Brooklyn Dodgers baseball schedule. If they were in Brooklyn we would stay with my mother’s brother and go to Ebbits field. If they were in Cincinnati we would go visit my Dad’s brother and go to Crosby Field. Yes, I saw Jackie Robinson play ball. Like many fans I felt like the umpires were an impediment to the game. The obvious (to all the world) missed calls in the field were bad enough but the missed balls and strikes were enough to drive you to drink – and you shouldn’t drive and drink.

Well much to the chagrin of the umpires, MLB took baby steps to address the problems caused by the umpires. First they installed the replay system where umpire calls can be appealed under certain conditions. The current instant replay system was implemented in the 2014 season. Under the current system, each manager is allotted one challenge per game, with additional challenges granted only if the previous one was successful. From the eighth inning on, the umpire crew chief is allowed to initiate his own replay review. The umpire crew chief is also allowed to initiate a review during any inning if the play in question is a boundary home run call.

Now MLB has instituted a challenge system for balls and strikes. Each team gets two challenges and only the pitcher, batter or catcher can challenge a call. This may bring some limited relief to frustrated players and fans who suffered through the nebulous strike zones of umpires like Eric Gregg and current umpires like C B Bucknor, but the system is flawed. One batter can use up his team’s challenges at one at bat – if he is wrong. So can one catcher or one pitcher. So why not give the teams a total number of challenges instead of the players?

Each umpire has his own strike zone which may approximate the real strike zone. Batters know that some umpire’s strike zone is up and down while others are left and right (re: Eric Gregg). Batters adjust and historically have said that all they wanted was the umpire to be consistent. Pitchers would know the umpire’s strike zone too and some pitchers would craft their own strike zone. Atlanta Braves’ Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were masters at this. Maddux would consistently hit his catcher’s mitt positioned a wee bit wide of the zone. He wouldn’t change and soon balls would be called strikes forcing the batters to swing at pitches wide of the zone. If the ABS (automated balls and strikes) system were in place, maybe Maddux and Glavine might not be in the Hall of Fame.

But umpires with inconsistent zones may not be motivated to change with the new ABS system. After the retirement of Angel Hernandez the worst balls and strikes umpire is C.B. Bucknor. The other day in a game between Boston and Cincinnati Bucknor was challenged eight times. He was overturned six times. He was overturned on all five Cincinnati challenges. But he never changed. Boston lost two of their challenges and could not have any more, meaning that Bucknor could still call the game as he saw fit when Boston was batting. There was a critical point in the game where Boston needed a challenge but had none. Its manager protested the call and was ejected. There was a game where MLB’s grading system had Bucknor missing 28 calls during a game. Even good umpires like Dan Iassogna can have bad days like the one where he missed 26 calls. But Bucknor’s poor vision is not confined to calling balls and strikes, he even gets overturned by the replay system, like he did the next day on a call that everyone saw. But to be fair, Ben May has the highest percentage of calls being overturned by replay.

Now clubs will have to figure out when to tell their players to challenge and when not to – even on obvious missed calls. The problem is that in baseball even if it is in the first inning with two outs and no one on base, should a call be challenged if this is obviously not a critical situation? But what if there would have been a rally with successive hits, robbing the team of a high scoring inning? It seems to me that the only solution is for all balls and strikes be called by the ABS system taking the home plate umpire out of the picture completely. I know some purists will complain and certainly the umpires will too. But how else to handle the situation where if it were not for the union, Bucknor and the worse umpires would be out of a job?

What baseball has done is to not let Bucknor umpire a Championship Series or a World Series. The same is true for Scott Barry, judged the second worse umpire in terms of balls and strikes. Mind you Bucknor’s lowest league accuracy rate is 92.3 percent so some might say “WTF, that’s pretty good.” Well in baseball, pretty good is not good enough.

Bondi banished. Slate. The Iran speech. NATO. Mail-in ballots

Bondi banished.

When Kristi (ex-Border Barbie) Noem was canned, I asked was Pam (Blondie) Bondi was next. The answer is yes. Trump just removed her as attorney general. He was displeased with the speed at which she was following his wishes to persecute his multitude of enemies but I guess it was the Epstein files that finally got her. As is his wont he will likely get another of his army of personal attorneys to replace her. I guess the prestige of the job outweighs having to work for Trump. 

Slate is just Tesla misspelled

I’m sure you have read about the Jeff Bezo’s backed electric pickup truck some call the “anti-Tesla.” It the Slate, a minimalist vehicle priced at $24,000 with crank up windows. Maybe it is the anti-Tesla because of the low technology, bargain basement price and homely appearance. But note that “Slate” is a Pooh spelling of “Tesla.”  (Winnie the Pooh was once told of her spelling that at least she got all the letters correct, just not in the right order)

Trump’s not-so-victory speech

Was I the only one who got the impression that Trump’s speech on his war on Iran was not a good sign for his conduct of the war? It was only 19 minutes. When has Trump ever given a 19 minute speech? It was saying that “Although we have won we will still bomb Iran back to the Stone Age because obviously they don’t realize that they have lost.” Again he threatened to bomb civilian targets in the country’s infrastructure. He has even indicated exiting the war leaving the Strait of Hormoz closed. All in all it did not sound like a victory speech. I thought he said that we had won. Some victory.

The president keeps saying that he is talking to someone in Iran who wants a ceasefire. Who is he talking to since all we hear out of Iran are denials? I keep wondering if some Iranian teenager is scamming the president social media account.

Leaving NATO?

Trump is spitting mad at our NATO allies for not supporting his war. They all say that it’s not their war – and it is not. The latest threat from the president is leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed and telling our allies to open it themselves if they want the oil. He has also threatened to leave NATO. Does that mean he will shutter all our military facilities in NATO countries and bring our 100,000 troops home? Trump always rails at the NATO countries for not spending 5 percent of their GDP on defense but its our fault. They are being rational to spend as little as they can get away with, so long as the US is defending them. They would be motivated to spend more only if they had to defend themselves. That is why the British ended up not even being able to defend their own base in Cyprus against an Iranian missile. So instead of badgering NATO countries to spend more, all Trump needs to do is to announce the systematic closure of US military assets in Europe and the withdrawal of American forces.

Yet another attempt to nationalize federal elections

After criticizing the democrats for trying to nationalize federal elections with their For the People Act, Trump is trying to do it himself. First, there is the SAVE Act and now he has issued another executive order regarding mail-in ballots. The order requires the Department of Homeland Security to provide states with a list of citizens who are eligible to vote in the next election. It institutes a rule blocking the U.S. Postal Service from transmitting ballots from individuals not on a state-specific mail-in and absentee voter list. It also orders the attorney general to investigate the distribution of “Federal ballots to ineligible voters” and empowers agencies to cut off federal funds to noncompliant states and encourages his Department of “Justice” to investigate and prosecute local election officials who don’t comply.

Pardon me, but isn’t all of this unconstitutional? And it is also chilling to think that a list of eligible voters will be provided to the states and those not on the list won’t be able to vote. I know that the democrats are threatening to sue. But the republicans should also sue. And rather than just sue, I would expect almost every state not to comply. This is only an executive order and will likely be overturned by any court. Some republican governed states, Georgia and Idaho, have already voiced noncompliance.

Federal courts have before ruled that Trump’s executive orders regarding mail-in voting are unconstitutional. The courts determined that he lacks the authority to unilaterally alter federal election procedures. The Constitution grants states the power to regulate their own elections, including mail-in voting. Trump will lose this one and by the way to all of those “No Kings” folk, it Trump were truly a king rather than wishing he were, the edict would have the force of law. So please stop this “No Kings” nonsense and go back to your bingo games and yard sales.

Trump said what?

The president who is fond of hearing his own voice is at it again, demanding Iran’s total surrender to a war he says we have already won, or else he will bomb their civilian infrastructure back to the stone age. Here is what he tweeted

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran,” “But, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ Trump said that attacking Iran’s infrastructure would be “in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.'”

This is a no-no. Attacking civilian infrastructure is nothing less than a war crime. I wonder if this is the type of order that Mark Kelley and the other democrats urged the military not to obey. I would think that there would be some resistance amongst the senior officers to conduct such an operation. Recall that the admiral over the southern command resigned when ordered to attack the speedboats in the Eastern Caribbean – an action of questioned legality. One observer said of Trump’s threat: “Threatening to obliterate a nation’s power grid, oil infrastructure and water supply to coerce its government is not a negotiating tactic; it is text-book collective punishment and a war crime.” 

One thing is for certain, if Trump makes the military attack Iran’s civil infrastructure, all hell will break loose in the Gulf. Iran will start to target the civilian infrastructure of our Gulf allies and in Israel. Desalination plants are crucial in the Middle East with almost every country being dependent upon them for fresh water. However, Iran is less dependent on desalination plants for drinking water than its Gulf neighbors. Iran gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and underground aquifers. But hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, putting individual systems that supply water to millions within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. Without them, major cities — such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates or Doha, Qatar’s capital — could not sustain their current populations.  So a word to the president: don’t.

The president also said that he wants to pick Iran’s next leader much as he did in Venezuela. Trump said “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Not surprisingly, the Iranian Leadership Council told him to go pound sand saying “The great Iranian nation will never allow anyone to interfere in its internal affairs and its right to determine its own destiny.” Anyway, who would Trump pick? Well the president said sensitive “Most of the people we had in mind are dead.”

The president has also said that he wants Iran’s oil. “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the U.S. say: ‘Why are you doing that?’” Sen. Lindsey (Bomb them All) Graham (R-S.C.) is pushing Trump to take Kharg Island, through which Iran exports 80 to 90 percent of its oil, to cripple Tehran’s regime. Trump said “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” Well then, why all the marines and airborne troops? Huh?

Earlier I asked why do we have all those installations and troops in the Middle East. Maybe its to keep the Chinese and the Russians out. But more than likely it is to protect the billions of dollars of US corporate investment in the region. Apparently most, if not all, of the Gulf states are incapable of warding off Iran. There is no longer a Saddam Hussein in Iraq to balance off the Iranians. Recall that they fought an eight year war that killed over 500,000 people as Hussein tried to prevent Ruhollah Khomeini from exporting Iran’s revolution over to Iraq. In addition to protecting US corporate interests, we are also there to protect Israel. To that end, given the destruction of US military installations and assets in the region, why not relocate our military to Israel? Wouldn’t that serve the same purposes? Just warn Iran that any invasion of the Gulf allies will be met with severe force that will once again pound the country’s military and kill their leaders.

A “failed” Treasury action. Birthright comes to the Court

A “failed” Treasury auction

We just had a failed Treasury auction.  The Treasury has specific financing needs and hopes to sell its securities at a high price which translates into a low interest rate. A failed auction is not one when the Treasury cannot sell all its securities but when the sale is at prices lower than anticipated making interest rates higher than the Treasury would like. Failed auctions seemed to be getting more frequent as the markets start to reach a saturation point for Treasury securities used to finance the debt. Another reason for a failed auction is an increase in inflationary expectations where buyers demand higher yields to protect their real returns.

A case in point was the latest auction of 2 year Treasurys. The Treasury had to raise $70 billion and it did so but at lower prices and higher yields than it wanted. The latest auction resulted in yields climbing 9.6 basis points to 3.926%, the highest yield in eight months. Trump of course wants Treasury yields down, lowering the cost of financing the debt, but his policies are making the opposite happen. First, the tariffs resulted in inflationary expectations rising, creating higher yields and not this first auction. His war on Iran pushed rates even higher. The market is saying that increased energy prices resulting from the war will translate into higher inflation. In order to preserve their real rates of return on the Treasurys, the market demands higher yields.

The next auction is a $70 billion 5 year Treasury auction. It will be interesting to see what happens then. I expect another failed auction and higher rates on the five year Treasurys. All total the Treasury has $10 trillion in debt coming due next year. Again , it will be able to refinance the debt but at what price?

Birthright citizenship

On the Supreme Courts’ docket is Trump’s challenge to birthright citizenship. I am not going to go into great detail again but at its core is the 14^th Amendment which conveys citizenship to everyone born in this country except the children of diplomats. The amendment says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” On his first day in office during this term, Trump issued an executive order saying that the government would not recognize as citizens children born here if a parent were not a citizen or a lawful permanent resident. He was immediately sued – and lost. Thus, far in challenges to the executive order, Trump has lost each time in six lower courts, regardless of the judges’ ideology. A Reagan-appointed judge said I can’t remember another case where the question presented is as clear as this one Is. This is a blatantly unconstitutional order.”

I expect that the court will rule unanimously against Trump. But I can be wrong. There is no doubt that the three liberals on the court (Kagan, Sotomayor and Brown Jackson) will be opposed but indications are that given rulings in the past the other justices will also. Nevertheless, I have been wrong before. Recall that Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh voted to keep Trump’s tariffs in direct conflict to earlier rulings where they defended the major questions doctrine. That doctrine says that when the executive branch seeks to wield significant regulatory power, it must first point to an unambiguous delegation of such power by Congress to the executive. In the case of the 14^thAmendment if the so-called conservative members of the court are consistent, they will vote against Trump’s executive order. 

Of course, Trump will have a cow. On fact he has had enough cows to have an entire herd – which would help in the beef shortage. He has harangued against the court rulings against his wishes to expand the power of the executive and was particularly spiteful in the tariff ruling. He then said “They sicken me, because they’re bad for our country.” Trump is expecting to lose here too as he said the court “will find a way to come to the wrong conclusion” on birthright citizenship—an outcome, he said, that other nations would celebrate.

Of course, all eyes will be on Clarence Thomas the descendant of slaves who – like mine – were given citizenship by the 14^th Amendment. In a 2022 case about federal benefits for Puerto Rico residents, Thomas argued that the citizenship clause promises equal protection for all citizens. Though birthright citizenship wasn’t the main issue in the case, Thomas would have understood the implications of his argument on future litigation over the birthright issue.

Regarding the major questions doctrine, it seems clear that on that basis the court should rule unanimously against Trump. The president has argued that birthright citizenship was meant only to give citizenship to the ex-slaves and their children and not to illegal immigrants. He is wrong. If the congress had wanted that to be so, then it would have written it into the amendment. It chose not to do so. debate on the 14^th Amendment, Senator Edgar Cowan (R-PA) said “Is it proposed that the people of California are to remain quiescent while they are overrun by a flood of immigration of the Mongol race? Are they to be immigrated out of house and home by Chinese?” Doesn’t that sound like Stephen Miller? But the Senate in a way agreed with Cowan that the result would be that those (Mongol) children born here would indeed be citizens and should be. Here is what Sen. John Conness (R–CA) replied “I beg my honorable friend from Pennsylvania to give himself no further trouble on account of the Chinese in California or on the Pacific coast. We are entirely ready to accept the provision proposed in this constitutional amendment, that the children born here of Mongolian parents shall be declared by the Constitution of the United States to be entitled to civil rights and to equal protection before the law with others.”

So Trump is wrong (again).

Iran strikes back. DOJ’s Jerome Powell witch hunt.

Iran strikes back

For a country that has lost the war, the Iranians are sure doing a lot of damage. They have targeted US installations and energy facilities of those Gulf states that are allied with us. Iranian missiles and drones have inflicted billions of dollars damage to highly sophisticated military equipment, US facilities, radar installations and aircraft. Battle damage and replacement of losses over the first three weeks of the war has been put at $2.9 billion. Many of the 13 military bases used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Troops are reported to be now living in hotels and office spaces. Iran said that it will target those locations as well. The Iranians said “We are forced to identify and target the Americans. Therefore, it is better not to shelter them in hotels and to stay away from their locations.”

Iran has also attacked radar, communications and air defense systems in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, including damage of the Qatari AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar at Al-Udeid Air Base. The radar, which can track several targets simultaneously, costs about $1 billion. They have also destroyed one of our 16 AWACS planes.

Iran has also targeted oil and gas infrastructure, especially in the UAE, but also Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia with hundreds of missiles and drones. The attacks have disrupted supply chains, creating uncertainty for the oil and gas and fertilizer industries as key infrastructure has been targeted or shut down. The damage is in the billions and it will take some say a couple of years to repair all the damage and to get production back to where it was before Trump attacked Iran. Israeli drones hit Iran’s Asaluyeh complex, damaging four plants that treat gas from the offshore South Pars field which straddles the maritime boundary between Iran and Qatar. Iran retaliated by hitting energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. They then hit Ras Laffan, the heart of Qatar’s energy sector, causing extensive damage. Qatar’s s liquefied natural gas facilities were then hit and production stopped. Iran has also attacked oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and led to the closure of gas facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

I am no expert but Israel has not been attacked with the same fervor as our Gulf allies which indicates to me that Iran has figured that the US would sooner capitulate if they attacked our allies and shut down the Strait of Hormuz rather than attacking Israel. In doing so Iran has not made any friends, but neither has the US as the rest of the world reels over sharp increases in energy and food prices. 

Speaking of allies, our European allies have indicated that they are our allies against Russia but not against Iran. Germany has basically said ”its not our war.” “Germany is not part of this war, and we don’t want to become a part either,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Even Trump’s buddyItalian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said “Italy is taking no part and doesn’t intend to.” Britain’s Keir Starmer denied the US military access to British bases for their initial attack on Iran even though the Iranians targeted British bases on Cyprus. Trump said “I said ‘You don’t want to do it? We’ve been with you. You’re our oldest ally and we spend a lot of money on NATO and all of these things to protect you’. I think it’s terrible. I was very surprised.” Starmer said about Trump “I’m not going to waver on this. I’m not going to back down… I’m not going to get dragged into the war… I’m not going to buckle under pressure and that’s the long and the short of it.” Trump added “Keir is no Winston Churchill.”

However, the main focus of Trump’s wrath on our NATO allies has been directed at Spain’s Pedro Sanchez who has refused to let the U.S. military use Spain’s air bases for the war. Sanchez says “In my view, this war in Iran is a big mistake for the world and therefore for the U.S.” Trump’s response was predictable “Spain has been terrible. We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.” Of course, Trump does not have the power to “cut off all trade with Spain.” Sanchez isn’t taking this seriously – The US actually has a trade surplus with Spain – nor is he taking seriously Trump’s demand to increase defense spending. Spain is the only member of NATO to reject Trump’s demand to raise defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product. Trump had said that if the country didn’t increase defense spending then maybe the US would not come to their defense if needed. Sanchez knows this is nonsense. 

BTW, Spain did send a frigate to Cyprus to help protect the British base there prompting Karoline (Lying) Leavitt to say that Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military.” Sánchez’s office responded with one word: “false.” 

More DOJ’s Powell witch hunt

Will Jeanine Pirro and DOJ actually appeal Judge Boasberg’s decision not to honor the subpoenas on Jerome Powell? They say yes even though it will delay the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh to become the new Fed chairman. But DOJ may have undercut its own case. the government itself acknowledged it has no evidence of wrongdoing by Chair Jerome Powell. In the transcript of

the initial hearing the DOJ lawyer said “We do not know at this time whether there is evidence of misconduct at the central bank. “You don’t need this grand

suspicion of illegal activity. It can be something as simple as a tip or a rumor or something that just doesn’t seem right.” Oops! I bet that lawyer is out of a job. That is an amazing admission of how frivolous this action is against Powell. Then the DOJ said that the subpoenas were not explicitly targeting Powell and were instead directed to the Fed board. What! This is new because the Board has never before been mentioned as part of the investigation. Supposedly it was Powell’s testimony to congress that triggered the investigation. The judge who obviously has been reading my blog responded “How about the White House ballroom, should that be investigated? That’s over budget.” The DOJ attorney had this astounding response “I wish we were in court for something like that, Your Honor, but today we are here on a different matter.” Again, does this attorney still have a job at DOJ?

Random Thoughts #78

Abolish TSA

The recent foolishness in not funding the TSA brought into full relief why that agency should be privatized. Reports of waiting in line for 5 hours in Atlanta and only 30 minutes in Orlando which has privatized agents should prompt the congress to let the private sector handle TSA duties. Yes I know that if TSA is privatized, slowdowns and stoppages could occur if the agents are unionized. But that may be preferred to the mess created by the congress playing in front of the cameras leaving the agents unpaid and calling in sick. At least 20 airports participate in the Transportation Security Administration’s Screening Partnership Program (SPP), which allows private companies to conduct security screening under TSA oversight. So I have two questions, why don’t all airports have this program and two why not just abolish TSA anyway? Data show that they are pretty bad at doing what they are supposed to do. There is a report that shows TSA failing to stop 95 percent of the weapons that inspectors attempted to sneak through airport screening stations as part of their regular audit program.

Markwayne Mullin – Trump’s DEI hire

I am always amused when critics of individuals who make decisions that they don’t agree with yell “DEI hire” when those individuals are not white males. Justices Sotomayor and Brown Jackson are cases in point. However, if a white male judge or justice aligned with them on an opinion no one would shout DEI hire for the white males. Sotomayor has degrees from Princeton (AB) and Yale (JD). She was a sitting judge when nominated to the court. Brown Jackson also was a sitting judge and has her degrees from Harvard where she was the editor of the Harvard Law Review and clerked for Justice Stephen Breyer. Those are credentials comparable to any on the court. Personally I think that some of their rulings are more reflective of their personal views than the law but to call them DEI hires is just a show of spite and bigotry. Even when Justice Barrett ruled in a way that the MAGA folk didn’t like, some fools called her a DEI hire too. Speaking of DEI hires, what about the new head of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin? Nothing in Mullin’s resume shows that he should even been nominated for Homeland Security. Why not Tom Homan? But after the disastrous DEI hire of Kristi Noem, Trump decided to nominate someone without a college degree and who was a native American. That way he can pander to all the MAGAs that didn’t go to college and vie for the Native American vote to boot. Mullin is a DEI hire.

Vietnam?

Here is a trivia question for you. With which country does the US have its largest trade deficit? Hint: it is not China. It is Vietnam. So in a way Trump’s disruptive trade war with China was successful – although I bet a good deal of that trade with Vietnam originated in China. Also, Trump’s trade war with Canada has resulted in Mexico displacing Canada as the largest buyer of American exports. When Trump went after China in 2018, imports from Vietnam were $49 billion. They are now $194 billion. Hey if the Germans and Japanese are now our friends and Vietnam a major trading partner, can Iran come over from the dark side as well?

Is this real money?

What are all the Trump haters going to do when his name appears on US currency? The Treasury issued this statement “In honor of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America, President Donald J. Trump’s signature will appear on future U.S. paper currency along with the Secretary of the Treasury, marking the first time in history for a sitting president.” Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary and Trump translator said “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are on a path toward unprecedented economic growth, lasting dollar dominance, and fiscal strength and stability. There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial.” What will the democrats do? Burn the currency? Ask for money that does not have Trump’s signature on it? Use bitcoin? Can I still use gold? How about barter? I bet the shrinks and Chatbox will do a booming business in freaked out college-educated white women.

Is that fast time or slow time?

The Georgia senate overwhelmingly by a vote of 45-5 passed a bill for Georgia to be on Atlantic time – hello Bermuda! Georgia will stay on daylight savings time all year round although Bermuda changes its clocks twice a year. Going to Atlantic time would mean that Georgia’s clocks would be different from all its neighbors with Florida, South Carolina, eastern Tennessee on Eastern Standard time while Alabama is on Central time. Georgia would be the only state on Atlantic Standard time and the change must be approved by the congress. I am reminded that my father told me that when he was growing up, eastern Georgia was on Eastern Standard time and western parts of the state were on Central time – much like Tennessee today. Dad said that when someone mentioned the time, the response was “Is that slow time or fast time?” Well if the state goes to Atlantic Standard. The whole state will be on slow time.